Apparently there was a pretty large movement to draft Al Gore into running as the Democratic nominee against President Bush in 2004. The election was pretty close IOTL even with Kerry, and there is historical precedence. The previous two presidents to be direct descendants of prior presidents, John Q. Adams (son of John Adams) in 1824 and Benjamin Harrison (grandson of William Henry Harrison) in 1888, had both, like Bush, been elected by winning a majority of the electoral votes, but lost the popular vote. The difference between them and Bush was that Bush defeated his challenger and was elected to a second term conventionally, while Adams and Harrison were defeated by the winner of the popular vote (Andrew Jackson in 1824/1828, Grover Cleveland in 1888/1892). If Gore runs in 2004, would he be able to beat Bush? And what is likely to happen next? The recession may not occur exactly as it did IOTL, for one.
WI: Gore runs in 2004?
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I don't remember (I was only six), but I do believe that 2004 was the year of the Battle of Fallujah.
I think he loses. In the politically divisive time period that was 04, I don't think Al Gore is able to whip up the enthusiasm to knock out W. Then again, I don't really think any Democrat could have actually pulled it off. Well, maybe won Ohio without winning the popular vote which would be kind of funny. No, I think if Al Gore was going to make a come back, he needed to pull a Nixon and come back in 08 and try to paint himself as the alternative to Obama and Clinton. And even then, I don't think it works. Gore's time was between 92-00, I think after that he has to be President to win.
From what I remember, Iraq was more of an asset than a liability poll-wise back then, so that helps Bush. More to the point, if he opposed Gore again, he'd blame 9/11 on Clinton's tepid responses to the embassy bombings in East Africa plus the USS Cole. Wouldn't put it past them to impugn Gore's war record, too, considering what happened to Max Cleland as well as Kerry. Actually, considering that the Democrats back then (and to a lesser extent even now) were embarrassingly dependent on consultants and focus groups, they could well play up Gore's service similar to what Kerry did IOTL. And then get promptly Swiftboated, of course.
Bottom line, it's not impossible for Gore to win, given how close the 2004 election was, but I don't think it would happen, especially since Gore's lack of charisma would still be a problem, and probably even more detrimental in a time of war.
Bottom line, it's not impossible for Gore to win, given how close the 2004 election was, but I don't think it would happen, especially since Gore's lack of charisma would still be a problem, and probably even more detrimental in a time of war.
Hmm, looking at the map, I can see that Gore as a "Southern" candidate may be freed up to picking a South or Midwestern running mate of some sort. I could see Gore picking up Iowa or New Mexico, so that's somewhat of an improvement over Kerry, but not much. That being said, maybe Gore would be more of a party elder if he fell on his sword like this for the Party, but I think people (like my 16 year old self) thought that Bush could be thrown out of office, so they probably would treat him as a pariah for losing two winnable elections.
Gore/Midwestern - 259
Gore/Western - 257
Though, theoretically Gore could try to pick someone from Florida but Bob Graham looks even more eccentric in 2004 than in 2000...and he'd probably still lose it.
Gore/Midwestern - 259
Gore/Western - 257
Though, theoretically Gore could try to pick someone from Florida but Bob Graham looks even more eccentric in 2004 than in 2000...and he'd probably still lose it.
I can remember the vibe around 2003/2004 was already beginning to turn against Bush. It wasn't as bad as it would get, and he still had his support base, but it was beginning to turn; I think around then we learned there were no WMDs, and I think the post-9/11 head-in-sand-patriotism was beginning to get stale. Looking at Kerry's numbers around 2004, I do think Gore could have won.
he might win the nomination
the election would be a little closer than OTL, but I still think bush will win
the election would be a little closer than OTL, but I still think bush will win
A little closer is all that's needed. Bush didn't win by much. Give the Democrats Ohio and the election is won.
Is there any reason to expect Gore to outperform Kerry, though? I think he would do worse, since the impression of him as having no charisma would have taken on a life of its own.
He didn't spend an entire election cycle plus the intervening time with the media telling the country and themselves over and over just how uncharismatic he was. And Kerry trounced Bush in debates, which I don't think Gore was considered to have done.
Only one version of Gore, much like Riker, would've won.
Growing a beard didn't keep Riker from getting the Enterprise totaled in every Next Generation film ever. Would it keep Gore from losing the Presidency a third time?
The best short summary would be that the war was much less popular than it had been in 2003 and much less unpopular than it would be in 2006.
However, while Iraq had ceased to be a vote-winner for the Republicans, on the whole they still held the advantage on national security/terrorism issues in 2004. In particular, "By a better than 3-1 margin, Americans who say terrorism is the most important problem say the Republican party is better able to handle it." https://books.google.com/books?id=uqqp-sDCjo4C&pg=PA387