WI: German reunification despite opposition of UK, France, US, USSR

[Lost the game]

Say it's 1989. The Soviet economy is stronger, but not strong enough to maintain the Warsaw Pact. The Soviets are seen as a big enough threat to preclude the expansion of NATO, but not strong enough to go all Prague Spring on dissenting member states.

As a result, the Warsaw Pact is in shambles but NATO isn't rushing to fill the gap. Instead, Poland, Czechoslovakia, and Bulgaria are adopting something more a democratic version of Hungary's "Goulash socialism" while Ceausescu and Hoxha have aligned with China and gone full-on Maoist (let's say the reforms of Deng Xiaoping never happened).

Enter the Germanies. The US, France, the UK, and the USSR are all in some way opposed to German reunification. The USSR will never accept a unified Germany in NATO. The United States DOES NOT want West Germany to withdraw from NATO. Margaret Thatcher and her Gaullist counterpart across the Channel are similarly opposed.

However, the East German elections yielded a majority for a pro-reunification at all costs party, while the West German elections has yielded a coalition between the SDP and the Greens, both not opposed to leaving NATO if it means reunification. The Chancellor is young, idealistic, and a political neophyte bound and determined to put his mark on history, and he had reunification between his teeth like a terrier and a rat. In 1989, the West German Chancellor flies to East Berlin for a summit with the East German Chancellor. Three weeks later in consecutive televised addresses, the Chancellors of East and West Germany announce that they plan to begin talks to reunify their country. In the Bundestag, a bill saying as much passes with a strong majority. Even the CDU doesn't want to be on the wrong side of history and so they support it even when the CSU votes unanimously in opposition.

What happens next?

 

[Bosemacher]

There will be a shortage of brown pants in Poland.

 

[Lost the game]

I mostly ask becase the last thread on this topic was a refrain of "that would never happen because Germany doesn't want to be seen as a rogue state" and that Helmuth Kohl was a better statesman than that.

Here I removed Kohl from the equation and I removed the US's main reason for supporting Reunification (an excuse to expand NATO.) Just a left-wing Coalition government led by a compromise candidate that could marshall the SDP without offending the Greens, who'd spent the past three years doing not much of anything for fear of making a misstep until the Chancellor and a party official he was close with had a "Let Bartlet be Bartlet" moment and he decided that saying what he wants to say and getting done what he wants to get done is more important than winning the next election.

A motivated political neophyte who's saying "hang the consequences, I'm doing what's right," and a voting public that doesn't understand the intricacies of international diplomacy cheering him on, in other words.

 

[nbcman]

A quarter million US forces, more Soviet troops, OTL opposition by France and the UK (plus others), and the absence of W German payments to the Soviets would stop the Unification in its tracks. No Two plus Four Power Agreement means the Germanies couldn’t legally sign a treaty to merge.

 

[rommel12]

I do not know much, but unification can be avoided if the United States, France and England do not agree with it. they just have to make East Germany have a good economy or there will not be a German unification.

 

[Lost the game]

A quarter million US forces, more Soviet troops, OTL opposition by France and the UK (plus others), and the absence of W German payments to the Soviets would stop the Unification in its tracks. No Two plus Four Power Agreement means the Germanies couldn’t legally sign a treaty to merge.

If the Soviets lack the stomach to use military force, what concrete steps would the Two plus Four powers take?

Moreover, how will that play in their respective countries? How will the electorate in the United States react to a president trying to prevent peaceful reunification under a democratically-elected government? Might we see someone like Tom Brokaw give a Murrow-on-McCarthy or Cronkite-on-Vietnam type editorial comment?

And what about the UK and France? If Thatcher and a Gaullist are the ones opposing it, will Labour and the Socialists attach their respective governments for standing in the way of peace?

EDIT: Just to clarify, I have no opposition to this becoming a big political crisis. I'm assuming that a government involving the Greens would also push for denuclearization. What I want to know is how this political crisis (one of those things that "defines" someones Presidency) plays out

 

[nbcman]

If the Soviets lack the stomach to use military force, what concrete steps would the Two plus Four powers take?

Moreover, how will that play in their respective countries? How will the electorate in the United States react to a president trying to prevent peaceful reunification under a democratically-elected government? Might we see someone like Tom Brokaw give a Murrow-on-McCarthy or Cronkite-on-Vietnam type editorial comment?

And what about the UK and France? If Thatcher and a Gaullist are the ones opposing it, will Labour and the Socialists attach their respective governments for standing in the way of peace?

The World would see a German people attempting to break treaty obligations as well as a resurgent Germany who still had claims on neighboring countries such as Poland. There may not necessarily be a war but what would Germany do if the Four Powers decided to stay in country? Would the Germanies start one? A war would lead to the ruin of Germany for the 3rd time in the 20th Century-and there wouldn’t be a chance of another large German state in the foreseeable future.

 

[Anchises]

Say it's 1989. The Soviet economy is stronger, but not strong enough to maintain the Warsaw Pact. The Soviets are seen as a big enough threat to preclude the expansion of NATO, but not strong enough to go all Prague Spring on dissenting member states.

As a result, the Warsaw Pact is in shambles but NATO isn't rushing to fill the gap. Instead, Poland, Czechoslovakia, and Bulgaria are adopting something more a democratic version of Hungary's "Goulash socialism" while Ceausescu and Hoxha have aligned with China and gone full-on Maoist (let's say the reforms of Deng Xiaoping never happened).

Enter the Germanies. The US, France, the UK, and the USSR are all in some way opposed to German reunification. The USSR will never accept a unified Germany in NATO. The United States DOES NOT want West Germany to withdraw from NATO. Margaret Thatcher and her Gaullist counterpart across the Channel are similarly opposed.

However, the East German elections yielded a majority for a pro-reunification at all costs party, while the West German elections has yielded a coalition between the SDP and the Greens, both not opposed to leaving NATO if it means reunification. The Chancellor is young, idealistic, and a political neophyte bound and determined to put his mark on history, and he had reunification between his teeth like a terrier and a rat. In 1989, the West German Chancellor flies to East Berlin for a summit with the East German Chancellor. Three weeks later in consecutive televised addresses, the Chancellors of East and West Germany announce that they plan to begin talks to reunify their country. In the Bundestag, a bill saying as much passes with a strong majority. Even the CDU doesn't want to be on the wrong side of history and so they support it even when the CSU votes unanimously in opposition.

What happens next?

So lets assume France, GB, USA and USSR stop the negotiations.

The East Germans will simply come to the West in huge numbers. "Voting with their feet" prevented any serious attempts to establish an independent East Germany.

What are the Wester Allies suppsed to do? Use U.S. troops on the Wall ?

No Reunification is not feasible without a MAJOR POD.

 

[Drizzt]

My 2 cents: Rewrite the premise to leave out the "opposition by the USSR" part. That's the one thing that breaks my suspension of disbelief. They would either use force to prevent it or endorse it once they figure out they can use it to drive a wedge between Germany and Britain/France. What is totally out of character for them is to verbally oppose it, yet not actually back up their words.

My prediction for what would follow then: Eurozone and EU are dead in the water. To clarify: With "EU dead in the water" I don't mean the EEC will collapse, just no futher integration for the forseeable future. Germany is going to be angry at what they will see as betrayal. Remember that all of it's EU parters officially supported reunification throughout the Cold War. Knowing it wont happen naturally. But that's hardly something you can use as an exucse for backtracking later. Whereas OTLs ResurgentGermanyPhonbia will be magnified, by Germanys "reckless, unilatered, actions". Anyway as I said it wont outright fall apart, but relations are going to plummet. Germany would stay in the NATO, so US would reluctantly support them. Also because they know that in the long run Britain and France will be forced to accept it. Long term Rusias position is much stronger. Many of it's former clients might not wish to join EU & NATO even if they could under the current situation. Perhaps something akin to what the Brits tried to do with their Commonwealth eventually emerges in Eastern Europe.

Personally I'd also rewrite the political situation in Germany a bit more. The Greens being part of this unilateral unification makes no sense. They had enough trouble to pretend not to oppose it in OTL . With a perfect excuse to go say "Now is not the right time" they'd never sign off on it. However that doesn't need to be a bad thing for your idea. Perfect opportunity to stir the pot some more: Have the Greens leave the coalition over this, meanwhile pro-unification members from the CDU/CSU break ranks during an attempted vote of No Confidence. When the dust settles the Social Democrats lost about 10% of it's more extreme Left members to the Greens, while the CDU/CSU splits into two now both national parties over the unification issue. Leading to deeper differences soon after. New Coalition is formed of slightly smaller SPD and pro-Unification former CDU/CSU.

 

[Lost the game]

The World would see a German people attempting to break treaty obligations as well as a resurgent Germany who still had claims on neighboring countries such as Poland. There may not necessarily be a war but what would Germany do if the Four Powers decided to stay in country? Would the Germanies start one? A war would lead to the ruin of Germany for the 3rd time in the 20th Century-and there wouldn’t be a chance of another large German state in the foreseeable future.

Say both countries agree that any reunification would come with a certification of the Oder-Neise line as Germany's legal eastern border (after all, it's not like they're giving up anything.)

A sovereign country votes to leave NATO. What steps would NATO take to prevent unification? If thousands of German civilians are protesting NATO military bases, what would NATO do, exactly? Shoot or teargas a peaceful protest? Enact sanctions?

So lets assume France, GB, USA and USSR stop the negotiations.

What could they actually do to stop negotiations? This is assuming you have leadership in both countries saying "Fuck Moscow and Fuck Brussels, we're doing what's right and hang the consequences."

 

[Anchises]

What could they actually do to stop negotiations? This is assuming you have leadership in both countries saying "Fuck Moscow and Fuck Brussels, we're doing what's right and hang the consequences."

Nothing.

Using military force is a moral and P.R. disaster and sanctions are going to crash the European economy with no survivors.

But for the sake of the argument I assumed that the politicians backed down.

There is no feasible way to enforce the seperation. Shooting Eastern Germans trying to cross the border? France and GB pouring BILLIONS into East Germany for decades?

It is just not viable. Neither France nor Britain where thrilled about it but there was simply nothing they could have done. The Soviets are dissolving at top speed and the GDR is bankrupt and rotten.

 

[Bosemacher]

Oppose not not mean I will go to war to stop you. France is economically tied to Germany. George H W Bush rose to power during the cold war and would not sacrifice NATO to prevent German reunification. The Soviet Union is still viewed as a major threat by the US establishment. I expect a lot of huff and puff but little else. The US will not sacrifice NATO to placate the egos of Thatcher and Giscard.

 

[Lost the game]

Oppose not not mean I will go to war to stop you. France is economically tied to Germany. George H W Bush rose to power during the cold war and would not sacrifice NATO to prevent German reunification. The Soviet Union is still viewed as a major threat by the US establishment. I expect a lot of huff and puff but little else. The US will not sacrifice NATO to placate the egos of Thatcher and Giscard.

So suppose a stronger USSR. Maybe Kosygin's economic reforms paid off, maybe no Afgahn war, maybe something like that, but this is a situation where the USSR will only accept German reunification if this unified Germany also leaves NATO.

 

[GDIS Pathe]

If the Soviets lack the stomach to use military force, what concrete steps would the Two plus Four powers take?

When the fuck did the USSR lack the stomach to use military force? They didn't lack in Hungary or in Czechoslovakia or in Afghanistan is the Soviets oppose it then it doesn't go through what will the WG do when Soviet Guards armor divisions close the border and start patrolling the streets of Berlin? Go to war?

So suppose a stronger USSR. Maybe Kosygin's economic reforms paid off, maybe no Afgahn war, maybe something like that, but this is a situation where the USSR will only accept German reunification if this unified Germany also leaves NATO.

If we suppose stronger USSR why in the world are they proposing German reunification? Why? What do they have to gain? Why ould West German leave NATO anyway the German politicians have known for years that the only thing keeping Soviet tanks on their side of Fulda was American troops and atomic arms leaving NATO means that they will be open to Soviet subversion and militarily powerless with the USSR holding the nuclear card.

 

[Lost the game]

When the fuck did the USSR lack the stomach to use military force? They didn't lack in Hungary or in Czechoslovakia or in Afghanistan is the Soviets oppose it then it doesn't go through what will the WG do when Soviet Guards armor divisions close the border and start patrolling the streets of Berlin? Go to war?



If we suppose stronger USSR why in the world are they proposing German reunification? Why? What do they have to gain? Why ould West German leave NATO anyway the German politicians have known for years that the only thing keeping Soviet tanks on their side of Fulda was American troops and atomic arms leaving NATO means that they will be open to Soviet subversion and militarily powerless with the USSR holding the nuclear card.

It's a needle being threaded. A USSR that's strong enough to make life difficult if NATO expands eastward (imagine the level of influence in the former Warsaw Pact that the Russians had in the Ukraine pre-Euromaidan, plus zero chance of Ukraine and the Baltics bolting) but not strong enough to take West Germany by force. Strong enough that if a unified Germany joins NATO then the Red Army Faction gets a huge boost.

 

[GDIS Pathe]

It's a needle being threaded. A USSR that's strong enough to make life difficult if NATO expands eastward (imagine the level of influence in the former Warsaw Pact that the Russians had in the Ukraine pre-Euromaidan, plus zero chance of Ukraine and the Baltics bolting) but not strong enough to take West Germany by force. Strong enough that if a unified Germany joins NATO then the Red Army Faction gets a huge boost.

If the USSR is weak enough that it can't take on West Germany alone in a standup fight then it is not strong enough to take on all of NATO the USSR might make life difficult if NATO expands eastward but it has made life difficult for the entire cold war if NATO expands that doesn't change what does is that the Iron Curtain moves East

 

[Lost the game]

If the USSR is weak enough that it can't take on West Germany alone in a standup fight then it is not strong enough to take on all of NATO the USSR might make life difficult if NATO expands eastward but it has made life difficult for the entire cold war if NATO expands that doesn't change what does is that the Iron Curtain moves East

Well, ITTL NATO is pissed. But is it "allow West Germany to be swallowed up by the Eastern bloc" pissed? there's a difference between "Neutral Germany" and "Soviet tanks on the west bank of the Rhine."

 

[rommel12]

Russia's problem is that they can be against unification, but if they can not maintain East Germany economically and prevent people from leaving the country they can not avoid it unless they fight a war or build a wall that seals to all East Germany.

 

[MrHaakwood]

Russia's problem is that they can be against unification, but if they can not maintain East Germany military/security wise and prevent people from leaving the country they can not avoid it unless they fight a war or build a wall that seals to all East Germany.

Fixed that for you. The East German regime came down when the people saw that the Soviet Union wouldnt pull a Prague. The FRG played a much bigger role to keep the "DDR" in power through economic means than the Soviet Union. See Strauß credits in the middle of the 80ies.

 

[Up The Creek]

Fixed that for you. The East German regime came down when the people saw that the Soviet Union wouldnt pull a Prague. The FRG played a much bigger role to keep the "DDR" in power through economic means than the Soviet Union. See Strauß credits in the middle of the 80ies.

Oh shush. Everyone knows the Germans are easily conquerable peasants who need to know their place.

On a more serious note, if the UK and France put up a continual fight, I can see NATO splitting into two factions that fight over control of the group, UK and France on one side, the US and Germany on the other. The other members pick sides or curry favor. If the USSR can be easily contained without the collected efforts of the US and the entirety of Europe, I can see everyone agreeing to keep the former Warsaw Pact as a large buffer and let NATO dissolve. A triumphalist 90s US honestly would believe they could do it largely on their own anyway. I just don't see the US giving up on Germany especially with the PR victory of a major socialist country voting to dissolve itself.