WI Gadaffi sucesfully attacks QE2 in 1973?

British Republic · Oct 2, 2014

In 1973, the QE2 ship (the former flagship of the Cunard Line) was charted for 600 passengers (mainly American Jews) for cruises to Israel to celebrate its 25th anniversary. As you may or many not know, there was very tight security on all aspects relating to it, which included Royal Marines and SAS forces.

In a interview in 1974, President Anwar Sadat of Egypt that he blocked a order by the then Libyan Leader Gadaffi (Egypt and Libya had a military alliance at the time) for a Egyptian submarine to torpedo the ship in question, he claimed he stopped it 2 hours before the order was supposed to be carried out.

Lets say for some reason the order went ahead and the ship was attacked, what would happen and what would be the aftereffects to this say?

sharlin · Oct 2, 2014

Egypt and Libya get bombed a LOT by the RAF and IAF and probably the USAF/USN, as this is an attack on a passenger ship on the high seas...

British Republic · Oct 2, 2014

sharlin said:
Egypt and Libya get bombed a LOT by the RAF and IAF and probably the USAF/USN, as this is an attack on a passenger ship on the high seas...

Could they launch a war against Libya and Egypt itself?

pdf27 · Oct 2, 2014

Really hard to see it happening, the Libyans had no submarines of their own at the time and alliance or not no Egyptian submarine commander is going to start a war just because the Libyans have told him to. Which makes Sadat claiming he stopped it with 2 hours to spare a bit unlikely, unless it was a plot from within his own military - it wouldn't have gone ahead without his positive authorisation.

The other thing is that it would presumably have to be a Whiskey class at the time. The QE2 would be quite a challenge for it - they would essentially have to be in the right place at the right time with the QE2 sailing right in front of their tubes to sink it. If their intelligence is wrong, their chances of catching it and taking a second crack at it are minimal.

Meadow · Oct 2, 2014

British Republic said:
Could they launch a war against Libya and Egypt itself?

Was this before or after the Yom Kippur War? Such a turn of events (which I would think would involve Sadat backstabbing Gaddafi out of sheer necessity, and breaking up the alliance when the news breaks) could easily butterfly the war, which would have huge (I mean huge) consequences for the wider world. No '73 oil shock is a massive POD.

British Republic · Oct 2, 2014

Meadow said:
Was this before or after the Yom Kippur War? Such a turn of events (which I would think would involve Sadat backstabbing Gaddafi out of sheer necessity, and breaking up the alliance when the news breaks) could easily butterfly the war, which would have huge (I mean huge) consequences for the wider world. No '73 oil shock is a massive POD.

The cruises in question took place from the 14th of April to the 28th of May of 1973, the war as you know took place in October of the same year. So yes Egypt could back off from getting involved in that war, which would be unlikely to take place as you said.

British Republic · Oct 2, 2014

pdf27 said:
Really hard to see it happening, the Libyans had no submarines of their own at the time and alliance or not no Egyptian submarine commander is going to start a war just because the Libyans have told him to. Which makes Sadat claiming he stopped it with 2 hours to spare a bit unlikely, unless it was a plot from within his own military - it wouldn't have gone ahead without his positive authorization

Sadat made this claim:

Sadat said:
“Fortunately he [Gadaffi] tried to use one of my submarines rather than his own. I was told about this at 1.30 am and I stayed up until 3.30 am making sure the submarine captain had returned to Alexandria”

He did not give much in terms of details as far as I know, but could it have been a military plot if true? Then again he did have a lot of issues with Gadaffi.

pdf27 said:
The other thing is that it would presumably have to be a Whiskey class at the time. The QE2 would be quite a challenge for it - they would essentially have to be in the right place at the right time with the QE2 sailing right in front of their tubes to sink it. If their intelligence is wrong, their chances of catching it and taking a second crack at it are minimal.

Interesting points, how would you rate the chances of success?

If it was unsuccessful, would they have been exposed for trying?

pdf27 · Oct 2, 2014

British Republic said:
He did not give much in terms of details as far as I know, but could it have been a military plot if true? Then again he did have a lot of issues with Gadaffi.

I think it would have to have been from within the Egyptian military if true - anything else would just cause a laugh and a "no" from Sadat, and no lost sleep at all.

British Republic said:
Interesting points, how would you rate the chances of success?

If it was unsuccessful, would they have been exposed for trying?

Very poor without excellent intelligence - these are 25 year old boats with limited batteries and hence underwater speed/endurance. The crews will be mediocre to put it politely (Arab navies tend to make the Israelis look competent - and the crew of HMS Troutbridge look like paragons of efficiency), and the QE2 is a big ship that will be sailing pretty quickly. This would have been a challenging intercept for a NATO SSK without good knowledge of the course of the ship (or without being at a choke point already, such as the entrance to Suez), for an Egyptian 1950s Russian boat it's a real stretch.

However, the chances of a failure being found out are small too - unless somebody talked, then there's nothing to see. A successful attack might well sink the QE2 depending on how many torpedoes they got into her - she's a big ship, but the crew will not be practiced in damage control. However, the chances of hitting her are IMHO pretty remote.

Magnum · Oct 2, 2014

Should they manage hit and sink her, could anyone positively PROVE it was an Egyptian submarine that did it ?

British Republic · Oct 2, 2014

pdf27 said:
I think it would have to have been from within the Egyptian military if true - anything else would just cause a laugh and a "no" from Sadat, and no lost sleep at all.

The problem with this claim is that I am not aware of anyone else saying it, along with the fact Sadat and Gadaffi are both no longer alive.

pdf27 said:
Very poor without excellent intelligence - these are 25 year old boats with limited batteries and hence underwater speed/endurance. The crews will be mediocre to put it politely (Arab navies tend to make the Israelis look competent - and the crew of HMS Troutbridge look like paragons of efficiency), and the QE2 is a big ship that will be sailing pretty quickly. This would have been a challenging intercept for a NATO SSK without good knowledge of the course of the ship (or without being at a choke point already, such as the entrance to Suez), for an Egyptian 1950s Russian boat it's a real stretch.

The submarine is also much slower than the QE2 can manage (she was one of the fastest ships of her time), so as you said a frontal attack would be the most likely option.

Overall I would agree with you on this.

pdf27 said:
However, the chances of a failure being found out are small too - unless somebody talked, then there's nothing to see. A successful attack might well sink the QE2 depending on how many torpedoes they got into her - she's a big ship, but the crew will not be practiced in damage control. However, the chances of hitting her are IMHO pretty remote.

How many torpedoes would it take to sink the QE2?

Overall I would agree.

Binky the Clown · Oct 2, 2014

Gaddafi and Sadat already hated other with a passion (Gaddafi attempted to assassinate Sadat multiple times, while Sadat planned on overthrowing "that bedouin from Sirte") and this tension between the two resulted in the collapse of the Federation of Arab Republics and the Libyan-Egyptian War of 1977. If Gaddafi does something like this, Sadat would use it to his advantage, since it would give him an excuse to overthrow Gaddafi and place a more moderate Arab Nationalist in power in Tripoli.

British Republic · Oct 2, 2014

kingbaldrick said:
Gaddafi and Sadat already hated other with a passion (Gaddafi attempted to assassinate Sadat multiple times, while Sadat planned on overthrowing "that bedouin from Sirte") and this tension between the two resulted in the collapse of the Federation of Arab Republics and the Libyan-Egyptian War of 1977. If Gaddafi does something like this, Sadat would use it to his advantage, since it would give him an excuse to overthrow Gaddafi and place a more moderate Arab Nationalist in power in Tripoli.

If the attack takes place, you are suggesting that Sadat could basically force Gaddafi out? (I know about their bad relationship).

What would this mean for Egypt's dealing of the issue and Arab Unity?

Binky the Clown · Oct 2, 2014

British Republic said:
What would this mean for Egypt's dealing of the issue and Arab Unity?

Perhaps getting rid of Gaddafi in favor of another Nasserist in Libya would result in a three-way union between Egypt, Libya and Sudan. Sudan's Gafaar Nimiery considered joining the FAR, but he didn't get along with Gaddafi (are you beginning to see a pattern here?) so he decided against it. With Gaddafi out of the picture and his good relations with Egypt, Sudan is almost certain to join the FAR. Syria, on the other hand, would probably leave the FAR if Gaddafi was overthrown by Sadat, since Assad considered Gaddafi one of his closest allies. In other words, goodbye Syria, hello Sudan.

Johnrankins · Oct 2, 2014

Worst Case Scenario: The US and UK think Sadat is behind it all and declares war on Egypt and Libya. What happens in that case?
Best Case Scenario: The US and UK piece it together and figure out Gadaffi is behind it. A US/UK/Egyptian vs Libya war breaks out. How long does Libya last?

Is Gadaffi simply overthrown by his own military when they find out that he has gotten Libya into a hopeless war?

CalBear · Oct 2, 2014

British Republic said:
Could they launch a war against Libya and Egypt itself?

Oh HELL Yes. The British could invoke Article 5 of the NATO Charter.

Wrath of God time.

Plumber · Oct 2, 2014

Are there any sources for this other than Sadat (a man who I wouldn't describe as particularly credible)?

British Republic · Oct 3, 2014

kingbaldrick said:
Perhaps getting rid of Gaddafi in favor of another Nasserist in Libya would result in a three-way union between Egypt, Libya and Sudan. Sudan's Gafaar Nimiery considered joining the FAR, but he didn't get along with Gaddafi (are you beginning to see a pattern here?) so he decided against it. With Gaddafi out of the picture and his good relations with Egypt, Sudan is almost certain to join the FAR. Syria, on the other hand, would probably leave the FAR if Gaddafi was overthrown by Sadat, since Assad considered Gaddafi one of his closest allies. In other words, goodbye Syria, hello Sudan.

I have read about how Gaddafi proposed Arab Unions many times, but they all failed because other Arab Leaders had issues dealing with them.

If the Federation of Arab Republics between Egypt, Sudan and Libya does come into play, would it be able to last to this day or be as short lived as the UAR?

British Republic · Oct 3, 2014

Plumber said:
Are there any sources for this other than Sadat (a man who I wouldn't describe as particularly credible)?

This claim has appeared on various books on Libya and Gadaffi and it seems British Intel seemed to know about it:

http://books.google.co.uk/books?id=...page&q=Gaddafi attacking the QE2 ship&f=false

However some have expressed doubts on what Sadat said in a BBC Interview where correct.

British Republic · Oct 3, 2014

Johnrankins said:
Worst Case Scenario: The US and UK think Sadat is behind it all and declares war on Egypt and Libya. What happens in that case?

Well, Sadat and Gadaffi are out of power, but what happens next?

Johnrankins said:
Best Case Scenario: The US and UK piece it together and figure out Gadaffi is behind it. A US/UK/Egyptian vs Libya war breaks out. How long does Libya last? Is Gadaffi simply overthrown by his own military when they find out that he has gotten Libya into a hopeless war?

Libya loses anyway even if the milltary stand behind Gadaffi.

Orville_third · Oct 3, 2014

CalBear said:
Oh HELL Yes. The British could invoke Article 5 of the NATO Charter.

Wrath of God time.

Why would they after it was not invoked when Libya bombed a NATO base on the soil of another NATO nation? To say nothing of when a NATO naval vessel was attacked twice in the Eastern Mediterranean by the same nation-unprovoked.

Then again, the UK would be attacked, not the US.