I know this scenario may be ASB, and I’m not an expert on Medieval European history, but hear me out.

Let’s say that the Umayyad raiders win the Battle of Tours, and Charles Martel is killed. The Umayyads use this as an opportunity to expand their borders past Septimania into more of Southern France, conquering Toulouse. With the Franks bloodied, the Duke of Provence, Maurontus, seeks aid from the Muslims to secure independence from the Franks. Without Martel, this succeeds, and Provence becomes a tributary of the Umayyads. Muslim control stretches from Toulouse in the west to Lyon in the north, ending in the east at the Alps. This Southern France Muslim Emirate is defended by the cities of Toulouse and Lyon as well as the mountainous terrain of the South of France, and grows rich from trade. Overtime the locals begin to convert to Islam, and the local dialect is influenced by Arabic.

Once again I know this scenario may seem very implausible, but I wanted to get your takes on it. What could an Emirate in the South of France look like? Would Muslims continue their conquests further into France and the rest of Europe, like Italy for example, or would they already be too overextended (as they already were by taking Spain by itself)? How would Occitan culture and language be impacted by Muslim rule? What would the culture of this alternate “Arbunah” (Muslim Septimania) and Muslim Provence look like? Would they quickly fall or is there a chance for survival? How do the Christians of Europe respond, and without Martel will there ever be any major Christian empires in the west to challenge the Caliphate?
 
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I don’t know that it’s really feasible for toulouse/aquitaine to remain Muslim for longer than a few hundred years at most- to survive longer than that they’d have to expand north and knock out the competition- Provence is potentially a lot more feasible, a greatly expanded version of fraxinetum, protected by the massif centrale and the alps, easily resupplied not just by al Andalus but by Sicily and North Africa as well.

As for the specifics of this scenario-

With the Franks bloodied, the Duke of Provence, Maurontus, seeks aid from the Muslims to secure independence from the Franks
This seems pretty improbable- the franks are fairly distant lords, you’re already largely independent, why would you switch allegiance from a coreligionist to heretics?


Would Muslims continue their conquests further into France and the rest of Europe, like Italy for example, or would they already be too overextended (as they already were by taking Spain by itself)?
The conquest of Spain was a largely Berber affair- in the event that Umayyad Spain has the resources to garrison anything north on the Pyrenees, that would have to come from integrating the Hispanians into your military recruitment pool. With that base, I could definitely see Provence being holdable into the second millennium, and that means Corsica and Sardinia are pretty doable, and that means greater ability to raid Rome and Italy, even if not full conquests. Should an Arab army manage to take Rome for a bit, the pope probably flees to the still existent Lombard kingdom.

I don’t think a conquest of Italy is particularly likely, and I think the franks are still the heavy hitters that will eventually push the Islamic presence out of toulouse- it’ll be interesting to see whether without having any credible alternatives to the imperial throne, the Latin church continues to acknowledge Constantinople as Roman emperor, perhaps even leading to the pope getting involved in iconoclasm somehow.
 
I don’t know that it’s really feasible for toulouse/aquitaine to remain Muslim for longer than a few hundred years at most- to survive longer than that they’d have to expand north and knock out the competition- Provence is potentially a lot more feasible, a greatly expanded version of fraxinetum, protected by the massif centrale and the alps, easily resupplied not just by al Andalus but by Sicily and North Africa as well.

As for the specifics of this scenario-


This seems pretty improbable- the franks are fairly distant lords, you’re already largely independent, why would you switch allegiance from a coreligionist to heretics?



The conquest of Spain was a largely Berber affair- in the event that Umayyad Spain has the resources to garrison anything north on the Pyrenees, that would have to come from integrating the Hispanians into your military recruitment pool. With that base, I could definitely see Provence being holdable into the second millennium, and that means Corsica and Sardinia are pretty doable, and that means greater ability to raid Rome and Italy, even if not full conquests. Should an Arab army manage to take Rome for a bit, the pope probably flees to the still existent Lombard kingdom.

I don’t think a conquest of Italy is particularly likely, and I think the franks are still the heavy hitters that will eventually push the Islamic presence out of toulouse- it’ll be interesting to see whether without having any credible alternatives to the imperial throne, the Latin church continues to acknowledge Constantinople as Roman emperor, perhaps even leading to the pope getting involved in iconoclasm somehow.
First off, Maurontus made an alliance with the Muslims irl, only four years after the Battle of Tours, to secure independence from Charles Martel and the Franks. Maybe he doesn’t call for help from the Muslims ITTL, but then that means he is susceptible to Muslim raids and perhaps even conquest. At the very least a Muslim French Rivera consisting of Septimania and Provence seems like an interesting and potentially plausible scenario. Perhaps they push into Aquitaine as well, though as you point out it would be very difficult.
 
I don't think it's necessarily ASB for Muslims to control some lands north of the Pyrenees long-term, but I find it unlikely that all of Aquitaine becomes as Moorish as Andalusia. That was the Frankish heartland, and even if the Umayyads won some more battles, it would be difficult to establish Islamic rule (or legitimise vassalage under Islamic rulership) at a time when Umayyad rule in Iberia was hardly secure.

Still, maybe the Franks or Latins keep antagonising the Basques and Catalans, to the point that the tribes of the Spanish March permanently align with the Umayyads. Even then, I don't think it'd be enough to conquer, subjugate, secure, and rule Gascony -- the geography just isn't well-suited to it. However, perhaps Septimania fall under Islamic rule -- not only does it border the Pyrenees (and the Umayyad-Carolingian Frontier), but also the Mediterranean. It could be part of the same cultural-commercial-military sphere as Andalusia, North Africa, and Sicily; Narbonne would be a port in the same network as Moorish Valencia, Tangiers, or Palermo.
For that to happen, though, it'd probably help if Sardinia and Corsica were solidly under Moorish/Islamic rule, too. And probably the Balearics, too.

Fun fact -- Septimania was briefly a Jewish-ruled principality in the 8th century. Being a frontier region between Islamic Iberia and Christian Francia, it needed a governor who wasn't in either camp (and certainly wasn't Basque). So, Pepin the Short appointed the Jewish scholar Makhir ben Judah-Zakkai to govern Septimania -- thus founding the Jewish dynasty known as the B'nai Makhir (Children/Sons of Makhir).
 
Let’s say that the Umayyad raiders win the Battle of Tours, and Charles Martel is killed. The Umayyads use this as an opportunity to expand their borders past Septimania into more of Southern France, conquering Toulouse. With the Franks bloodied, the Duke of Provence, Maurontus, seeks aid from the Muslims to secure independence from the Franks. Without Martel, this succeeds, and Provence becomes a tributary of the Umayyads. Muslim control stretches from Toulouse in the west to Lyon in the north, ending in the east at the Alps. This Southern France Muslim Emirate is defended by the cities of Toulouse and Lyon as well as the mountainous terrain of the South of France, and grows rich from trade. Overtime the locals begin to convert to Islam, and the local dialect is influenced by Arabic.
The funny thing is that a number of historians believe that the role of Charles Martel in these events is overestimated. Firstly, according to Henri Pirenne, the struggle for southern Gaul continued for a long time:
The battle took place in October 732; The Arabs were defeated and Abd ar-Rahman was killed, but the threat was not completely averted. Now Provence, that is, the southern coast of Gaul, was under threat. In 735, the Arab governor of Narbonne, Yusuf ibn ar-Rahman, occupied Arles, resorting to the help of collaborators whom he gathered in the areas adjacent to the city. Then, in 737, with the help of Mauron [the Duke of Provence, an enemy of Charles Martell], the Arabs took Avignon and plundered the entire territory up to Lyons, as well as Aquitaine. Charles Martel again opposed them. He recaptured Lyon from the Arabs and launched an assault on Narbonne, having previously defeated Arab troops transported by sea to help their coreligionists. However, he failed to take the city. Charles returned to Austrasia with enormous booty, as he took, plundered and burned Magelon, Agde, Béziers and Nîmes. These victories won by Charles Martel did not prevent the Arabs from again invading Provence in 739. This time they also created a threat to the Lombards, and Charles, with the help of the latter, again gave the Arabs a worthy rebuff and threw them back. It's not entirely clear what happened next; Apparently, the Arabs established themselves in the coastal part of Provence and held these positions for several years. Pepin the Short ousted them in 752, but failed to immediately take Narbonne. He managed to do this only in 759; At the same time, the Arabs were driven out of Septimania. This victory meant the end of further Arab conquests in Western Europe.....

This battle did not have the significance that is attributed to it. It cannot be compared with the victory over Attila. Charles's victory thwarted this particular Arab campaign, but was not decisive in the broader sense and did not stop their raids. If Charles had lost this battle, the result would have been only more active plunder by the Arabs of the part of Gaul where they were located.
According to him, a much more significant victory in terms of the defense of Europe (including its western part) from the Arab invasion was the victory of the Byzantines over the Arabs in the defense of Constantinople in 717-718, won by Emperor Leo the Isaurian, the founder of the Isaurian dynasty:
However, the death of Emperor Justinnan II, which followed in 711, marked the beginning of a period of anarchy, which lasted from 711 to 717. At this time, the Bulgars approached Constantinople, and the Mohammedan Arabs made a campaign through the territory of Asia Minor; at the same time, their fleet, taking advantage of captured strongholds in the Aegean Sea and Propontus, attempted to capture the capital of the empire from the sea in 717. We can say that Europe was then saved thanks to the energy and courage of the warrior who had just ascended to the imperial throne - Leo III the Isaurian. Having defeated the Arab fleet with the help of such a terrible weapon as the already mentioned Greek fire, and having concluded an alliance with the Bulgars, he forced the badly battered and significantly thinned Arab army to lift the siege of Constantinople, which lasted throughout 718, and retreat. This was a historical event of enormous significance, much greater than the victory over the Arabs at Poitiers, since never after that did the Mohammedan Arabs try to capture Constantinople, the city “preserved by God.” As Bari noted, this was an event of universal significance. From that time until the reign of Empress Irene (782-803), the Arabs were kept under control, they not only did not advance a single step forward, but were even driven back to Asia Minor.
It is also important that the Franks could not effectively defend their own coast - the Arabs even held Fraxinetum in Provence, which became one of the centers of the slave trade, for 84 years.

Secondly, if the Battle of Poitiers slowed down the Arab advance in Gaul, then in Italy, on the contrary, Arab expansion began from that moment:
The Arabs launched several invasions of Sicily one after another: in 720, 727, 728, 730, 732, 752 and 753. Invasion attempts were suspended for a time due to unrest and internal conflicts in Arab-held territories in Africa, but they resumed in 827. An Arab state independent of the caliphate was formed in Tunisia and Algeria, led by the Aghlabid dynasty, which ruled from 800 to 909. The representative of this dynasty, Emir Siyadet-Allah 1, took advantage of the uprising against Byzantium in Sicily and launched a surprise attack on Syracuse. The Arab fleet left Susa in 827, but the Byzantines fought very energetically and the Byzantine fleet liberated Syracuse from the siege. The Arabs received reinforcements, first from Spain and then from Africa. In August-September 831, after a year-long siege, they took Palermo and thus received a stronghold of defense in Sicily. However, despite all this, the Byzantines continued to fight fiercely both on land and at sea. They, however, failed to prevent the Arabs, with the support of the Neapolitans, from taking Messina in 843. In 850, the main stronghold of the Byzantine defense in Sicily was taken by storm, and Syracuse, after a heroic defense, fell on May 21, 878...

In the same year, Charles's son Pepin, who was king of Italy, tried to drive the Arabs out of Corsica, where they had settled and strengthened themselves. He equipped a fleet and, as chroniclers who lived during the reign of the Carolingians write, took possession of the island. However, the following year Corsica again fell into the hands of the enemy. Charles immediately sent his commander Burchard against them, who forced the Arabs to retreat; in this battle they lost 13 ships. However, this again turned out to be only a temporary success; in 808, Pope Leo III, discussing with Charles the issue of protecting the Italian coast, begged him to take care of Corsica. There is every reason to believe that in 809 and 810. Arabs occupied Corsica and Sardinia....

the entire territory of Italy, located north of the cities controlled by the Byzantines, was at the mercy of the Arabs. In 838 Brundisium and Tarantum were plundered, in 840 Bari was taken, and the Byzantine and Venetian fleets were destroyed. In 841, the Arabs sacked Ancona and the Dalmatian coast as far as Cattaro. In 846, Lothair did not hide his fears that the Arabs might conquer all of Italy.


In 846, 70 Arab ships attacked Ostia and Porto; robbing and ruining the country, the invaders reached the walls of Rome and desecrated the temple of San Pietro. The Roman garrison was unable to resist them. The Arabs were eventually driven back by troops under the command of Guido di Spoleto. The next year, Lothair launched a campaign against the Arabs, but failed to recapture Bari from them....

In 852 the pope settled some Corsican refugees in Porto; he surrounded the city with fortifications, but, alas, this new city never flourished. The pope also built the city of Leopoli, which was supposed to replace Civitavecchia, abandoned by the inhabitants for fear of Arab raids. At the same time, the pope restored the cities of Orta and Ameria in Tuscany so that the inhabitants could take refuge in them in case of raids.

However, these measures did not prevent the Arabs from plundering in 876 and 877. Roman Campaign; The pope's calls to the Byzantine emperor for help remained unanswered. At that moment, Byzantium was faced with a catastrophic development of events in Sicily, where Syracuse was taken by the enemy in 878; that is why the Byzantines decided not to interfere. In the end, the pope, in order to save his compatriots from the attacks of the mounted Moors, was forced to pay them off by agreeing to pay 25 thousand pounds of silver annually.
Only in the X century did Europeans manage to stop and push back the Arab conquerors (while in some areas the Arabs ruled until the second half of the XI century):
Roman Campania had become a desert: it was now an abandoned and depopulated land. Peaceful life was restored here only in 916, when [Pope] John X, the Frankish emperor, the rulers of southern Italy and the emperor in Constantinople, who sent several galleys to Naples, joined forces and forced the inhabitants of Naples and neighboring cities to break their alliance with the Arabs and set out against them; the combined forces of this coalition inflicted a crushing defeat on the conquerors in the decisive battle that took place on the Garigliano River
Pirenne’s disappointing conclusion about the progress of the struggle of Christians and Muslims for Italy and for hegemony in the Western Mediterranean as a whole is indicative - he notes that without the support of Byzantium, the rulers of the Latin West could not resist the Muslims:
Thus, we can say that after the conquest of Spain and especially Africa by the Mohammedan Arabs, the western part of the Mediterranean Sea turned into a “Muslim lake.” The Frankish Empire had no navy and was powerless to stop the Arab conquests. Naples, Gaeta and Amalfi had a fleet, but their commercial interests pushed them to abandon relations with Byzantium, which was too far away, in favor of the Mohammedan Arabs. It was thanks to the betrayal of these cities that the Arabs eventually managed to establish control over Sicily. Yes, Byzantium had a powerful fleet, even more powerful than that of the coastal cities of Italy, thanks to the presence of such terrible weapons as the already mentioned Greek fire. But once Sicily was finally conquered by the Arabs, the Byzantine fleet found itself completely cut off from the West.

As Ibn Khaldun [a Muslim historian from the Maghreb] noted (with a corresponding reservation regarding the Byzantine coast), “Christians can no longer send even a plank by sea.” The entire Mediterranean Sea was now controlled by Arab pirates. In the 9th century. they captured islands, destroyed ports and launched their raids wherever possible. The great trading port of Marseille, once the main center of the West's trade with Byzantium, was now empty. The former economic unity and integrity of the Mediterranean was destroyed, and this continued until the era of the Crusades
In other words, the key factor in the fact that Arab conquests in Europe stopped was not the Franks, but the Eastern Empire. But at the same time, even the alternative version of the Battle of Poitiers does not give grounds to say that the Umayyads were ready to conquer all of France.
 
What could an Emirate in the South of France look like?
Al Andalus is an example, plus at the time initiative was heavily prized,so if they keep expanding they might make south/central France the border with the Christian Europe and that strengthen al-Ándalus too
 
One factor seldom mentioned is that paganism and various pagan practices were still common in France until the counter reformation,
The Christianity of this era was one of the elite imposing their version on everyone else while the peasants tried to ignore them….
Catharism came from that area of France also suggesting a certain anti main stream Christianity underlay…..
All these factors say to me that the area could become a mini Spain, that is minority Muslim immigrants and conversions, Jews, heretic christian sects, and freedom loving escaped serfs!
Followed by a frank led reconquest with flame and sword with The inquisition coming into power/existence earlier than OTL.
Maybe leading to greater French colonialism with a need to export war veterans to the New World for the glory of France ala conquistador…..
Still the mark even today on south French culture and food would be significant…..
 
One factor seldom mentioned is that paganism and various pagan practices were still common in France until the counter reformation,
The Christianity of this era was one of the elite imposing their version on everyone else while the peasants tried to ignore them….
Catharism came from that area of France also suggesting a certain anti main stream Christianity underlay…..
All these factors say to me that the area could become a mini Spain, that is minority Muslim immigrants and conversions, Jews, heretic christian sects, and freedom loving escaped serfs!
Followed by a frank led reconquest with flame and sword with The inquisition coming into power/existence earlier than OTL.
Maybe leading to greater French colonialism with a need to export war veterans to the New World for the glory of France ala conquistador…..
Still the mark even today on south French culture and food would be significant…..
Perhaps once the New World is inevitably discovered it becomes a scramble to expand both Christianity and Islam, a contest between Christian Francia and Muslim Al-Andalus?
 
Perhaps once the New World is inevitably discovered it becomes a scramble to expand both Christianity and Islam, a contest between Christian Francia and Muslim Al-Andalus?
That is going to cause a large amount of Frank bungling for a Muslim Al-Andalus to exist for the next 700+ years and the Iberian Peninsula to remain under their control as well.
 
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