WI Frederick Wilhelm IV accepts crown in 1849

[David T]

I'll repeat an old soc.history.what-if post of mine:

***

IMO German unification in 1848-50 was very unlikely. However, the *reason*
it was very unlikely has sometimes been misunderstood.

The essential problem was *not* that Frederick William IV rejected the
crown offered to him under the Frankfurt Constitution that had been
ratified on March 28, 1849. He wished to receive the crown from his fellow
princes, not from representatives of the people (as he put it, he would not
pick up "a crown from the gutter"). He was offended by the way the
Constitution had been drafted--according to him, it should from the
beginning been negotiated between the convention and the member states that
wanted to join.

However, this problem could be resolved. Most of the states indicated a
willingness to accept the new Constitution, and even Prussia was willing to
lead a small-German (i.e., Austria excluded) federation if some conditions
were met and the consent of the other states obtained. Accordingly, in May
1849 the Constitution was modified along the lines suggested by a Prussian
draft; this revised constitution not only met with the fundamental approval
of most of the states but also with that of the Reichstag that was convened
in Erfurt the following year. (The Erfurt Constitution was considerably
less democratic than the Frankfurt Constitution on March 1849 had been--for
example, equal and universal suffrage was dropped, the government was given
an absolute, not merely "suspensive" veto of decisions adopted by
Parliament, etc.)

This constitution could have been adopted even though the democrats
boycotted the Erfurt Reichstag--both conservatives and democrats were
willing to compromise on key points. The real problem was Austria's
opposition. It rejected the idea of a "small German" federation under the
hegemony of Prussia (even though it was to be supplemented by a loose
confederation with Austria--the so-called *Doppelbund*) and instead
proposed to include the whole of Austria in a federation. According to
this plan, the new union would have seventy million inhabitants with
Austria alone representing thirty-eight million in the house of states!
Obviously this "Siebzig-Millionen-Reich" had no chance of getting the
approval of Prussia or of most north Germans. In any event, Austrian
opposition also encouraged Bavaria and Wurttemberg to reject the Prussian
plan.

In short, the real problem in 1849 is that Austria was not willing to leave
Germany alone and Prussia at that stage (unlike 1866) was not willing or
able to force her to do so. I have never seen a plausible way out of this
dilemma (though I certainly don't claim to be an expert on Germany history
of that era). Was there *any* potential Austrian regime that would
acquiesce in a Prussian-dominated federation or *any* potential Prussian
ruler who *under the conditions of 1849* would go to war with Austria to
establish such a federation? (And even if so, would he be successful?
After all, Prussian industry was not what it would be in 1866, and Austria
had not yet been weakened by the war in Italy.) I just don't see it.

 

[Evil Crusader]

Literally the point of the thread.

OK, now this is exactly the kind of thing that we need to expand more on -- how exactly will "the revolutions will be crushed eventually regardless"? How will the Major German Princes do this; and if they could do it all along, why did they wait for Prussia to step in?

If Prussia won't do it, Austria will.
The Prussian King eventually accepting the Imperial Crown would be a poisoned chalice, coalescing reaction against a tangible threat and encouraging division inside the Frankfurt camp at a point in which revolutionary vigor has already waned quite a lot.

 

[raharris1973]

For being an institution whose "powers and wishes amounted to precisely nothing", the Frankfurt Assembly was surprising good at getting other German States (san Prussia) to work with them and recognize their authority, at least in the short term -- as mentioned, Wurttemburg and Baden were already doing so, and Saxony and Bavaria had ongoing revolts that were putting their princes to shelter until Prussian armies could come and rescue them (which, whatever else Frederick Wilhelm may do after accepting the crown, would not be happening TTL). Several of the armed forces of the individual states were already swearing their allegiance to the Frankfurt Constitution -- so it seems the real question we should be asking here is, for just about any anti-assembly power or player in the rest of Germany, with what army are they supposed to stop them if Prussia's is unavailable to them?

I think that @danny723 is just having difficulty suspending hindsight and looking at things from the perspective of people in 1848 and 1849 for whom the future is uncertain. For him, the true power and leverage of all factions and actors in 1848-49, looking back, has been measured and weighed with a good deal of precision and it adds up to the simple equation that old order survives, challengers lose. People without hindsight, at the time, didn't have those fine measurements available.

In short, the real problem in 1849 is that Austria was not willing to leave
Germany alone and Prussia at that stage (unlike 1866) was not willing or
able to force her to do so. I have never seen a plausible way out of this
dilemma (though I certainly don't claim to be an expert on Germany history
of that era). Was there *any* potential Austrian regime that would
acquiesce in a Prussian-dominated federation or *any* potential Prussian
ruler who *under the conditions of 1849* would go to war with Austria to
establish such a federation?

I get where you're coming from, and this is important, an Austria that is at all back on its feet, ready to defend its primacy and throw punches poses a credible threat of launching war to do so. It would be seen to have Russian backing. That raises the risk level for any Prussian monarch (or other German monarchs) wanting to to ride the German nationalist kleinsdeutsch wave.

Here is perhaps where timing could have been important. What if the Frankfurt conventioneers completed their work on 'the people's crown' much more quickly than OTL, in 1848, while Austria was still in deeper trouble in Italy, Hungary, and possibly Vienna and Prague, and before Russian intervention, back at the time in 1848 when the Prussian King was forced to publicly apologize for his soldiers shooting demonstrators. The Prussian King either accepts the Crown then, when the revolutionaries appear more ascendant, and the Habsburg nearly helpless (unlikely), or the Prussian King now has time to move on to plan B, the more conservative Erfurt Union, with the other German Princes and Kings, by early 1849, before the Habsburgs are fully done with Italy, and before the Habsburg and Russians are done with Hungary and able to credibly threaten force against a kleinsdeutch fait accompli.

 

[raharris1973]

Different things could affect the perceived threat of Habsburg opposition - such as, how the Habsburgs are doing elsewhere, and whether they are getting help from the Russians or not. For instance, what kind of shape would the Austrians be in to beat the Hungarians or deter the Prussian Erfurt Union if the events of Tarabas La Primavera D'Italia timeline transpired?

 

[De von Of]

No German unification under Prussian leadership can happen before the Crimean war and the Russo-Austrian split. Friedrich Wilhelm would have to walk back his German ambitions really fast under Russian pressure as he was historically at Olmütz.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

If Prussia won't do it, Austria will.
The Prussian King eventually accepting the Imperial Crown would be a poisoned chalice, coalescing reaction against a tangible threat and encouraging division inside the Frankfurt camp at a point in which revolutionary vigor has already waned quite a lot.

For what it's worth, @David T does make the very good point as to why it was ultimately Hapsburg opposition, not divisions between the liberals and conservatives, that would ultimately doom the OTL attempts at German Unification in 1848. This kind of structural analysis leaves just one question for our purposes -- if FW had (yes, completely out of character) accepted the offered crown in 1849, how would these efforts to destroy his new empire actually play out?

It seems to me that they'd still need the support of those princes and their supporters opposed to the new government, who as mentioned are certain not in short supply (even if we put Prussia aside); now those princes could play for time until Austria has finished cleaning house, securing Northern Italy and suppressing the Hungarian Revolt, though as I've mentioned they are under a lot of pressure in the moment as well. So at the very least you'd likely be seeing all the major german power players publicly accepting the authority of the Frankfurt Constitution and its new Emperor, while awaiting the day when Austria is stabilized to put an army into the field and be in a position to intervene again.

Not sure if anything comes of this slightly extended "spring". But if that is indeed how events would specifically play out had the King of Prussia acted out of character that one day in April 1849, then I would at least consider the OP answered.

 

[Galba Otho Vitelius]

One critical point, to which I have no idea, is whether the 1849 Prussian army is capable of defeating the Hapsburg army in a war. It was in 1866, but that is after Molkte and Roon were appointed to key positions, and the quality of the Prussian army would often vary greatly between decades.

David T makes excellent points, and I will only add some "big picture" points because I don't have detailed knowledge of mid nineteenth century European politics.

It seems to me that after the Treaty of Vienna, there are only two ways to get a more centralized German confederation. And they would have to be pushed by either Austria or Prussia, since combined these two governments could both suppress any popular insurrection, or block an initiative of the smaller states.

One would be an Austrian led "Medium Germany" solution, where common German confederation institutions are gradually strengthened, with the Hapsburgs playing the leading role, but being careful to consult closely with Prussia in particular but also the smaller German states. The Hapsburgs would decentralize their own holdings, and set up separate governments for Hungary, Croatia, and the Hapsburg territories in Poland and Italy. These would maintain their own armed forces and be outside of the German customs union, though the Confederation and these states could negotiate trade treaties later. The situation would have some similarity to the United Kingdom being both part of the European Union and the Commonwealth, though obviously these situations are difficult. They would push for Prussia to treat West Prussia and East Prussia similarly, though they would accept East Prussia being absorbed into the German confederation and West Prussia being given autonomy. And eventual separation of Schleswig-Holstein from Denmark would be envisaged. This would be an almost insanely far seeing policy of the type that governments rarely adopt, but its technically possible.

The other possibility is the Prussian led "Small Germany" solution that IOTL happened, but in 1866-70 instead of 1848-9. This was obviously more possible, since it was what happened, but the critical point is that it would mean Prussia going to war against Austria and allied German states and winning. And it still requires a Bismarck level statesman at the head of the Prussian government. I don't know if these conditions could be met in 1848. I don't think the Parliament itself is that important, except as a means and opportunity to impose either of these solutions.

 

[raharris1973]

Ferdinand I (or Franz Karl or Franz Joseph, whatever is the head of the Habsburg) who has the right blood and ancestors and is still seen as the natural leader of Germany can take the Imperial Crown of Germany from the Parliament of Frankfurt and tell to everyone who he is the Emperor of Germany and nobody will protest

Now this I would want to see-

How would you imagine it working out that the assembly offers the Crown to Franz Joseph, and he agrees to part with the non-Germanic Confederation lands. And how does he assert effective central control over Prussia? If Franz-Joseph becomes German Emperor by Grace of the Almighty, and choice of the Frankfurt Popular Assembly, he could reign over Germany for 67 years!

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

How would you imagine it working out that the assembly offers the Crown to Franz Joseph, and he agrees to part with the non-Germanic Confederation lands.

That’s a pretty big concession for him to make -- several orders of magnitude bigger than whatever compromises Prussia would be asked to make in a United Germany led by them. That’s why it was Frederick Wilhelm who was offered the crown, despite him being who he was; after the Silesian Wars went how they did, and the Napoleonic Wars ended how they did, Prussia emerged as the overwhelming favorite to take a leading role in whatever union is created to tackle the German Question.

 

[isabella]

Now this I would want to see-

How would you imagine it working out that the assembly offers the Crown to Franz Joseph, and he agrees to part with the non-Germanic Confederation lands. And how does he assert effective central control over Prussia? If Franz-Joseph becomes German Emperor by Grace of the Almighty, and choice of the Frankfurt Popular Assembly, he could reign over Germany for 67 years!

Only Hungary was a trouble (the other lands could be all included) and Franz Joseph could also keep Hungary in personal union outside of Germany instead of giving it to his brother