WI: France really WAS behind the Mayerling Incident (1889), assassinating the Habsburg Crown Prince Rudolf

Apparently, in a 1982 interview (which I've seen referenced in different locations, but couldn't find the original of), the former Austrian Empress Zita of Bourbon-Parma (who was ~89 years old at the time; she would die 7 years later in 1989), upon returning to Austria shortly after its travel ban against Habsburgs had been lifted, claimed when speaking to Krone Zeitung that it was her belief that Emperor Franz Josef's son and heir Rudolf and his mistress did not die as a result of a murder-suicide at Mayerling, but were instead assassinated.

"According to Zita , the Archduke was assassinated because he refused to participate in a plot against his father, a plot which aimed to dethrone Franz Joseph and replace him, on the throne of Hungary by Rudolf, and on the throne of Austria by Archduke John of Habsburg-Tuscany; Rudolf would have been informed of certain elements relating to this plot and would have been assassinated to safeguard the instigators ... Empress Zita did not provide any element to identify these instigators but cited George Clemenceau as a politician who participated in this conspiracy."

If we were to assume that this was indeed the case, then the Habsburgs pulled off one hell of a cover-up, which is why I'm personally quite skeptical of the veracity of these claims. However, let's roll with them - what can we expect from these revelations?

Some context: Clemenceau was a leading figure in France for opposition to general Boulanger, who had recently won an election to Parliament mere days before the Mayerling Incident, with everyone expecting an imminent coup against the French government. If it comes to light that the French government and prominent politicians such as Clemenceau were behind the assassination, who knows how the Boulangist movement would react.
 
If A-H manages to find solid evidences about such thing there is hell around. France either must step back and punish perperators such issue or there is going to be massive punishment over regicide by A-H, Italy, Germany, Great Britain and Russia. So say too good bye any Entente alliance with France.
 
If A-H manages to find solid evidences about such thing there is hell around. France either must step back and punish perperators such issue or there is going to be massive punishment over regicide by A-H, Italy, Germany, Great Britain and Russia. So say too good bye any Entente alliance with France.
Nah Britain only care his empire,that will still happen
 
Lets first lookat what rational France would have for this plot? Rudi was best buds with Kaiser Wilhelm II IIRC, so hardly like he'd shift Austria/Hungary into a pro-French stance. In fact, Austria is likely to lean more heavily into a Prussian alliance than OTL. Also, England would no doubt be shocked/worried about a sort of aggressive republicanism from France, and ally with Prussia instead. Which leaves France and Russia versus an Anglo-Prussian-likely Austrian entente. And whether Russia sticks with France is debatable. France made herself a pariah state with the revolution by killing their own monarch, nowthry're killing monarchs in other countries? Its hard to see how this doesn't end in war
 
Lets first lookat what rational France would have for this plot? Rudi was best buds with Kaiser Wilhelm II IIRC, so hardly like he'd shift Austria/Hungary into a pro-French stance. In fact, Austria is likely to lean more heavily into a Prussian alliance than OTL. Also, England would no doubt be shocked/worried about a sort of aggressive republicanism from France, and ally with Prussia instead. Which leaves France and Russia versus an Anglo-Prussian-likely Austrian entente. And whether Russia sticks with France is debatable. France made herself a pariah state with the revolution by killing their own monarch, nowthry're killing monarchs in other countries? Its hard to see how this doesn't end in war

AIII is not going to ally with killers of royals. AII's assassination by radicals is still in fresh memory. So at least there is nto alliance between France and Russia.
 
Lets first lookat what rational France would have for this plot? Rudi was best buds with Kaiser Wilhelm II IIRC, so hardly like he'd shift Austria/Hungary into a pro-French stance. In fact, Austria is likely to lean more heavily into a Prussian alliance than OTL. Also, England would no doubt be shocked/worried about a sort of aggressive republicanism from France, and ally with Prussia instead. Which leaves France and Russia versus an Anglo-Prussian-likely Austrian entente. And whether Russia sticks with France is debatable. France made herself a pariah state with the revolution by killing their own monarch, nowthry're killing monarchs in other countries? Its hard to see how this doesn't end in war

sorry Kellan but Rudi was by no means William's best friend, on the contrary he hated ( especially its authoritarian character )
him and a little envied him for having become kaiser before him, his best friend of Willy was Franz Ferdinand

for the rest I agree that France with such a crazy action becomes diplomatically isolated from everyone
 
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sorry Kellan but Rudi was by no means William's best friend, on the contrary he hated ( especially its authoritarian character )
him and a little envied him for having become kaiser before him, his best friend of Willy was Franz Ferdinand
*Face palm* thought I got it mixed up
 

Not sure how constitutionally this plot was to guarantee a separate succession for Austria and Hungary, and their separation. And not sure why that would be an unalloyed triumph for France. It's potentially misery/chaos for a German ally, but with unpredictable consequences.

However, it's easy to project conspiracies onto Johann Salvator, based on his mysterious disappearance later on in the year of Mayerling.

This is a fun idea.

Boulanger better act before April 4th, 1889, or he's out of the picture.
 
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Considering nothing of the sorts (separation) happened, I think that France was probably last country who would have done something like that.
 
Lets first lookat what rational France would have for this plot? Rudi was best buds with Kaiser Wilhelm II IIRC, so hardly like he'd shift Austria/Hungary into a pro-French stance. In fact, Austria is likely to lean more heavily into a Prussian alliance than OTL. Also, England would no doubt be shocked/worried about a sort of aggressive republicanism from France, and ally with Prussia instead. Which leaves France and Russia versus an Anglo-Prussian-likely Austrian entente. And whether Russia sticks with France is debatable. France made herself a pariah state with the revolution by killing their own monarch, nowthry're killing monarchs in other countries? Its hard to see how this doesn't end in war
Who do you think would go to war against who?
 
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