WI: France doesn't intervene in the Great Turkish War

[De von Of]

What happens if France, for whatever reason doesn't intervene in the Great Turkish War?

At this point in the war the Ottoman Empire was more or less in free fall. The troops of the HRE had already concquered Belgrade, Skopje and Pristina, and was sieging Sofia, Venice was occupying large parts of Greece, and almost the entire Balkans were in open rebellion.

Add to that, that Istanbul was in complete chaos, with frequent revolts and coups.


So, if France doesn't intervene, (say because of internal troubles or something like that) what is the maximal war goal for the Holy Alliance? Can they remove the Ottomans from the Balkans completely?

And who would rule over that territory? It seems obvious that Venice would control most of Greece, and Austria would get the parts of the Kingdom of Hungary they could not get IOTL and probably northern Serbia and Bosinia, but what happens to Southern Serbia, Albania and Bulgaria? Are they ruled by the emperor in personal union, just like Hungary?

Also, is there anyone in the east or west of the Ottoman empire who could take advantage of its weakness?

 

[Uruk]

Perhaps the Safavids could use the Ottoman weakness to revitalize itself with some victories? An earlier defection of Egypt?

 

[De von Of]

Perhaps the Safavids could use the Ottoman weakness to revitalize itself with some victories? An earlier defection of Egypt?

Interesting.

Anyone else?

 

[Draeger]

I can see a possible Armenian revolt, perhaps Mesopotamia/Iraq is looking for some breathing room.

The opportunity exists to free all of Greece and establish a client state there for either Habsburg or Venice.

 

[Urcea]

What exactly was the nature of France's intervention IOTL? I can't seem to find anything on it offhand

Is a puppet Latin Empire-type deal off the table by this point? (asking for a Byzantophile friend )

 

[De von Of]

What exactly was the nature of France's intervention IOTL? I can't seem to find anything on it offhand

Is a puppet Latin Empire-type deal off the table by this point? (asking for a Byzantophile friend )

It's the Nine Years War, partly caused by the expansionist ambitions of Luis XIV, partly by the desire to save the Ottomans.

The reason this was like a miracle for the Ottomans isn't that the French were particularly successful, but that the HRE was forced to transfer most of it's troops and experienced commanders to the west, allowing the Ottomans to bounce back.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nine_Years'_War

 

[Antipater]

If France can be convinced to remain at peace with the HRE for just a few more years, you could see some large changes on the map in the east, at least in the short run. But the problem for the HRE is that it is very unlikely that France will not either declare war on the Empire, or cross one of the Emperor's red lines. William of Orange had quite deftly combined the interests of Holland with the HRE, and by 1688 war between Holland and France was almost inevetiable.

But lets say there is some exogenous event that keeps the Empire's borders secure after 1688, and allow them to remain secure for such a period of time that the Ottoman Empire is forced to conclude peace on unfavourable terms with its enemies. I would expect some changes in the east to involve:
-Extension of the Emperor's dominion into the "Danubian Principalities," Wallachia and Moldavia, with some concessions likely to be made to the Poles in light of their contributions. I would expect a long period of rule under the "Kingdom of Hungary' for any territories that were even nominally part of that Kingdom
-Same goes for the southern Hungarian territories that the Austrians had already secured at this point.
-Greece, at least most of the Islands and the Peloponesse (Morea) to Venice. Getting Crete back is definitely on the table as well. However, given that the Venice were mostly in the war for economic advantage, I think the interests of the Maniots and other Greek proto-patriots would be a secondary consideration for Venice. I would expect Venice to pursue maratime territories, and be very wary of making any big push landwards. A campaign to retake Cyprus might not be out of the question.
-Serbia: Probably another Habsburg Crown, as happened in the 18th century for a stretch.


I have a hard time seeing the Ottoman Empire collapsing at this point though, so I don't think losses outside of the Meditteranian Islands or Mainland Europe are feasible at this point. The Sultan's position as Caliph would make the Timars unwilling to be seen as betraying the leader of the faithful at such a critical hour, and the Janisaries could hardly expect to maintain their position without an empire to serve.

Bulgaria, Epirus/Albania are blank spots for me.

 

[machine3589]

Considering how terrible the Ottoman situation was at certain points of the war, I think that if they wanted to the Austrians could march all the way to Constantinople.

 

[Luminous]

If France can be convinced to remain at peace with the HRE for just a few more years, you could see some large changes on the map in the east, at least in the short run. But the problem for the HRE is that it is very unlikely that France will not either declare war on the Empire, or cross one of the Emperor's red lines. William of Orange had quite deftly combined the interests of Holland with the HRE, and by 1688 war between Holland and France was almost inevetiable.

But lets say there is some exogenous event that keeps the Empire's borders secure after 1688, and allow them to remain secure for such a period of time that the Ottoman Empire is forced to conclude peace on unfavourable terms with its enemies. I would expect some changes in the east to involve:
-Extension of the Emperor's dominion into the "Danubian Principalities," Wallachia and Moldavia, with some concessions likely to be made to the Poles in light of their contributions. I would expect a long period of rule under the "Kingdom of Hungary' for any territories that were even nominally part of that Kingdom
-Same goes for the southern Hungarian territories that the Austrians had already secured at this point.
-Greece, at least most of the Islands and the Peloponesse (Morea) to Venice. Getting Crete back is definitely on the table as well. However, given that the Venice were mostly in the war for economic advantage, I think the interests of the Maniots and other Greek proto-patriots would be a secondary consideration for Venice. I would expect Venice to pursue maratime territories, and be very wary of making any big push landwards. A campaign to retake Cyprus might not be out of the question.
-Serbia: Probably another Habsburg Crown, as happened in the 18th century for a stretch.


I have a hard time seeing the Ottoman Empire collapsing at this point though, so I don't think losses outside of the Meditteranian Islands or Mainland Europe are feasible at this point. The Sultan's position as Caliph would make the Timars unwilling to be seen as betraying the leader of the faithful at such a critical hour, and the Janisaries could hardly expect to maintain their position without an empire to serve.

Bulgaria, Epirus/Albania are blank spots for me.

I suppose that the mainland possessions of Venice are really dependent upon how successful the campaign on the mainland, otherwise, would be. If all of the European Ottoman Empire falls, the Venetians might expand Dalmatia a bit more into Bosnia, and perhaps take some of the lowland possessions on the western Balkans (i.e., the Albanian lowlands, the ones on the western edge of OTL Greece, and etc).

Now, what happens to all of the Balkans south of Serbia and Hungary? Would we see a unified Rhomania restored, or would they be Balkanized into a series of small little princedoms and bishoprics? The biggest argument might be between creating a unified political unit that might be strong enough to resist the Ottomans in the future vs one that would be strong enough to also resist the Austrians as well.

It'd be interest that, if successful, the Hapsburgs could control the HRE, the entirety of the Balkans (including the second Rome, at least indirectly), Spain, part of the Netherlands, a large portion of Italy, and etc, could they claim to be the third Rome and actually put that into action?

 

[starwarsfan]

Hmm, is it possible that the Safavids could have tried to invade the Ottomans as well and further damage the Ottomans?

 

[De von Of]

I suppose that the mainland possessions of Venice are really dependent upon how successful the campaign on the mainland, otherwise, would be. If all of the European Ottoman Empire falls, the Venetians might expand Dalmatia a bit more into Bosnia, and perhaps take some of the lowland possessions on the western Balkans (i.e., the Albanian lowlands, the ones on the western edge of OTL Greece, and etc).

Now, what happens to all of the Balkans south of Serbia and Hungary? Would we see a unified Rhomania restored, or would they be Balkanized into a series of small little princedoms and bishoprics? The biggest argument might be between creating a unified political unit that might be strong enough to resist the Ottomans in the future vs one that would be strong enough to also resist the Austrians as well.

It'd be interest that, if successful, the Hapsburgs could control the HRE, the entirety of the Balkans (including the second Rome, at least indirectly), Spain, part of the Netherlands, a large portion of Italy, and etc, could they claim to be the third Rome and actually put that into action?

This brings up an interesting point:

If Leopold manages to ultimately defeat the Ottomans and control Constantinople, directly or indirectly, might that convince Charles II. to name him (or one of his close relatives) the heir to the Spanish throne?

This would lead to a very different War of the Spanish succession (and there would be war - there would be a lot of people who would hate to see
Charles V. 2 - Balkan Boogaloo.)

 

[The Arbiter of Europe]

I severely doubt the Austrians could have taken Constantinople at this point, just as it was too difficult for the ottomans to bring heavy siege artillery to Vienna so it would be for the Austrians to bring heavy cannons to Constantinople. Plus the ottomans would still have control of the sea and would be able to constantly resupply and reinforce their capital.