WI: Ferguson sacked in 1990

Politibrit

I've recently got round to watching BBC's Documentary about the early years of the Premier League, and was struck by how it is much it revolved around Manchester United's dominance in that era. This got me thinking about what English football might have looked like without Sir Alex Ferguson's influence over the club.

So say that he is fired in the 1989-90 season when fans were clamouring for him to go, and his replacement doesn't get them performing to the standards of OTL:

  • Who replaces him?
  • What teams stand to gain the most from a weaker Manchester United? Could the likes of Blackburn or Newcastle sustain their success over the longer term if they had more titles to their name?
  • What happens to the 'Class of '92'? Would they be as good, and could Man U keep hold of them if they aren't consistent title challengers?
  • What are the repercussions for the financial side of the game. Would transfer fees rise as quickly without other clubs chasing Man U? And would the likes of Chelsea and Man City get the kind of billionaire investment we saw IOTL?
  • What happens to Ferguson himself? Does he go back to Scotland, or could he land another job in England?
 

The History Man

The strongest candidates for the manager's post would have been Bobby Robson, Terry Venables, Howard Kendall and Steve Coppell. Robson would have been the favourite because of his strong track record with Ipswich, the fact his teams played atractive and attacking football and that he would have been a free agent after the 1990 World Cup. Second favourite would have been Kendall because of his track record with Everton and by steering Manchester City to a mid-table position after promotion. El Tel would have been a long-shot; he was managing Spurs at the time and they would have demanded a king's ransom from the Reds for him to make the switch. Coppell had done a fantastic job raising Crystal Palace from the brink of relegation to Division 3 to the First Division and a CupFinal appearance, but he was the least experienced of the contenders, and the United board may have thought he was too much of a risk for this reason.

Arsenal would have been the most obvious beneficiary of a weaker United. They did well as it was in the 1990s and 2000s, even when United were strong.

The best of the Class of '92 would have shone in a moderate United XI but the lack of silverware would have led to rivals in both England and Europe making bids for the likes of Beckham, Giggs and Scholes.

I think transfer fees would have risen just as quickly. United would have been ready to pay out millions for players in order to gain trophies, so would have the likes of Arsenal, Spurs, Chelsea and Liverpool, not forgetting clubs like Blackburn and Newcastle with wealthy owners.

Ferguson would have probably landed another job with an English club. The only realistic rival posts in Scotland would have been Celtic or Rangers. I doubt f Celtic would have accepted an ex-Rangers player as manager and Ferguson had issues with Rangers arising from his unhappy spell with them as a player between 1967 and 1969.
 

Citycat

Blackburn might have managed to win another title in the mid 1990s, maybe Newcastle could have claimed the Premiership in 1997 instead of choking.

Wenger and Arsenal would have dominated in the late 90's and early '00s. They were close to winning the league in 1999 and 2003, they might have added these two their belt if Man Utd are a weaker side. They could have picked up 5-6 championships instead of the 3 IOTL.
 

MatthewFirth

Here's how I see it:

Ferguson becomes Hearts manager in September 1990 instead of Joe Jordan
Robson becomes United manager (he didn't confirm joining for PSV till 24th May OTL, meaning he could have considered United ITL)
Taylor still becomes England manager (and leaves after 94' campaign as in OTL. Whether England win the 1990 World Cup in this scenario is another story)
Coppel remains as Palace manager (though may have signed some United players, as would Forest, Spurs, and possibly Arsenal)

The biggest question I still have is that whether Brian Clough remains as Forest manager for 1990/91 (since he probably wins the 1989/90 FA Cup in this scenairo).
 

MatthewFirth

HelloThere said:
Ferguson did that IOTL before going to United. Stein died in 1985. The Scottish Team manager in 1990 was Roxburgh.
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Ah! Scotland went out the group stages of the 1990 WC. So Ferguson could have gone back there for Euro 92 qualifying. I think it's a toss-up between Scotland and Hearts though.
 

aaronupright

Banned
Many people have said his less than successful time as a National team manager poisoned his views of international matches.
When would he be sacked? OTL he won the FA Cup in 1990 (a bigger prize at that time then now) and the Cup Winners Cup in 1991.
 

MatthewFirth

ITL Man United would have lost the Third Round of the FA Cup to Nottingham Forest. That's the POD.
Ferguson would have been sacked on the 9th of January 1990 (if they lost straight away) or the 11th of January 1990 (if the game went to a replay and Forest won).

He wouldn't have got another job that season IMO, so his next role would not come until at least after the World Cup. At that point, the only available English job would have been Aston Villa, since Graham Taylor got the England job. Nottingham Forest would have also been available had they won the cup (which IMO they would have done if Man United hadn't beaten them) and Brian Clough had decided to retire considering he's won every trophy to achieve in club management. But both Villa and Forest would not want Ferguson considering his disappointing effort with United.

Therefore Ferguson's most likely choices would be Hearts or Scotland. He most likely would have taken up the Hearts role IMO, considering his previous experience with Scotland.
 
nepcotevalley

nepcotevalley

MatthewFirth said:
Ah! Scotland went out the group stages of the 1990 WC. So Ferguson could have gone back there for Euro 92 qualifying. I think it's a toss-up between Scotland and Hearts though.
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So I suppose the question is . Would being sacked by M.U. in 1990 be enough make Ferguson change his mind about taking a second crack at the Scotland job ?
 

aaronupright

Banned
Politibrit said:
What happens to the 'Class of '92'? Would they be as good, and could Man U keep hold of them if they aren't consistent title challengers?
Click to expand...
One interesting idea, all of the class of '92 were major cricket prospects in their youth, especially the Neville brothers and Scholes. IOTL, Ferguson kiboshed their fledgling cricket careers (despite ironically being a big cricket fan himself, his favorite player, Geoff Boycott), another manager might not have.

ITTL, the Neville brothers and Scholes depart United Academy for professional cricket careers and the Nevilles are the backbone of the England teams which dominate multiple Ashes series and win an ODI WC. Scholes has an ok career, often topping the county charts, but finding holding down an England place difficult.
Butt, Beckham and Giggs, the three who were seen as better football prospects stay on, but have middling careers.
 
nepcotevalley

nepcotevalley

I wonder how Ferguson's absence would affect teams like Blackburn and Newcastle. Particularly Blackburn. Would they still shine brightly for a while but ultimately crash and burn ? Of course there's also Ferguson's mind games to think about. Poor Kenny Dalglish was particularly susceptible to them as I recall.
 

Marky Bunny

MatthewFirth said:
ITL Man United would have lost the Third Round of the FA Cup to Nottingham Forest. That's the POD.
Ferguson would have been sacked on the 9th of January 1990 (if they lost straight away) or the 11th of January 1990 (if the game went to a replay and Forest won).
Click to expand...
Yes, this is very well put. United sat 15th in the table, just 2 points above the drop zone. They where in a relegation battle. You find the table on the day of the game and full of that season (and others) here: http://tvset.byethost12.com/utm/itv/ITVrestab.html?19900107ZZZ
Also look at the video of the Mark Robins goal, the ball almost goes out for a throw in, Lee Martin just manages to keep the ball in, if that ball goes out...
Also after POD even after Robins scored the goal, Forest had an equaliser scored by Nigel Jemson disallowed three minutes from time
After defeat here on a draw and defeat in the replay, Fergie would have been sacked. Now what would they don in the short term, you would have seen a caretaker appointment for the rest of that season to try and keep United up. Now I think at person would have been Lawrie McMenemy. He had been United's first choice to replace Dave Sexton in 1981, he was highly regarded by Matt Busby but he turned the job down and stayed at Southampton. He was also friends with United legend Bobby Charlton due to them working for the BBC as pundits during the 1980's. McMenemy's last job had ended in the sack and disaster at Sunderland in 1987, but I think he would of been brought in the short-term.
Assuming that United stay-up (they only finished in 15th place and just five points above the drop zone), who would be the likely candidates. I agree Steve Coppell as a former United player doing well at the time at Crystal Palace would have been an obvious candidate, but here is one I think worth looking at in the context of the time, and that would be former United player Joe Jordan (played for United Jan 1978 to June 1981- 109 apps and 38 goals) who was at the time Manager of Bristol City. He had been successful since taking over in early 1988, losing in the final of the 3rd Division play-offs (after a replay) just months after taking over. The following season he took them to the semi-finals of the League Cup, losing narrowly to Nottingham Forest in the two legged semi-final, and in 89-90 they where promoted to the second Division as runners-up and had also reached the 5th round of the FA Cup causing a major upset in Round Four knocking out First Division Chelsea 3-1. (In the summer of 1990 Jordan's stock was high in OTL he left City to take over at Hearts), which seems the perfect job for Fergie in this situation. Also Jordan had played three years at Southamton from 1984 to 1987, where he had been signed by Lawrie McMenemy.
Also another interesting side line to this is Nottingham Forest and Brian Clough. With Forest still in the Cup do they reach the Final instead of them, and win the Cup (They would would win the League Cup in 1990 as well for the 2nd straight season). I think if Clough does manage it, he would retire at the top, he only kept going trying to win the FA Cup (the only domestic cup which he failed to win). They would of course lose 2-1 in the final to Spurs in 1991, and he would stay on for another 2 seasons (although taking Forest to another League Cup Final in 1992 which they lost 1-0 to Manchester United, they ended up getting relegated in the first season of the PL in 1992-93, and Clough retired at the end of the season). Here I think he gets a better end to his career.
 
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MatthewFirth

Marky Bunny said:
Yes, this is very well put. United sat 15th in the table, just 2 points above the drop zone. They where in a relegation battle. You find the table on the day of the game and full of that season (and others) here: http://tvset.byethost12.com/utm/itv/ITVrestab.html?19900107ZZZ
Also look at the video of the Mark Robins goal, the ball almost goes out for a throw in, Lee Martin just manages to keep the ball in, if that ball goes out...
Also after POD even after Robins scored the goal, Forest had an equaliser scored by Nigel Jemson disallowed three minutes from time
After defeat here on a draw and defeat in the replay, Fergie would have been sacked. Now what would they don in the short term, you would have seen a caretaker appointment for the rest of that season to try and keep United up. Now I think at person would have been Lawrie McMenemy. He had been United's first choice to replace Dave Sexton in 1981, he was highly regarded by Matt Busby but he turned the job down and stayed at Southampton. He was also friends with United legend Bobby Charlton due to them working for the BBC as pundits during the 1980's. McMenemy's last job had ended in the sack and disaster at Sunderland in 1987, but I think he would of been brought in the short-term.
Assuming that United stay-up (they only finished in 15th place and just five points above the drop zone), who would be the likely candidates. I agree Steve Coppell as a former United player doing well at the time at Crystal Palace would have been an obvious candidate, but here is one I think worth looking at in the context of the time, and that would be former United player Joe Jordan (played for United Jan 1978 to June 1981- 109 apps and 38 goals) who was at the time Manager of Bristol City. He had been successful since taking over in early 1988, losing in the final of the 3rd Division play-offs (after a replay) just months after taking over. The following season he took them to the semi-finals of the League Cup, losing narrowly to Nottingham Forest in the two legged semi-final, and in 89-90 they where promoted to the second Division as runners-up and had also reached the 5th round of the FA Cup causing a major upset in Round Four knocking out First Division Chelsea 3-1. (In the summer of 1990 Jordan's stock was high in OTL he left City to take over at Hearts), which seems the perfect job for Fergie in this situation. Also Jordan had played three years at Southamton from 1984 to 1987, where he had been signed by Lawrie McMenemy.
Also another interesting side line to this is Nottingham Forest and Brian Clough. With Forest still in the Cup do they reach the Final instead of them, and win the Cup (They would would the League Cup in 1990 as well for the 2nd straight season). I think if Clough does manage it, he would retire at the top, he only kept going trying to win the FA Cup (the only domestic cup which he failed to win). They would of course lose 2-1 in the final to Spurs in 1991, and he would stay on for another 2 seasons (although taking Forest to another League Cup Final in 1992 which they lost 1-0 to Manchester United, they ended up getting relegated in the first season of the PL in 1992-93, and Clough retired at the end of the season). Here I think he gets a better end to his career.
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Who would replace Clough?
 

Politibrit

MatthewFirth said:
He wouldn't have got another job that season IMO, so his next role would not come until at least after the World Cup. At that point, the only available English job would have been Aston Villa, since Graham Taylor got the England job. Nottingham Forest would have also been available had they won the cup (which IMO they would have done if Man United hadn't beaten them) and Brian Clough had decided to retire considering he's won every trophy to achieve in club management. But both Villa and Forest would not want Ferguson considering his disappointing effort with United.

Therefore Ferguson's most likely choices would be Hearts or Scotland. He most likely would have taken up the Hearts role IMO, considering his previous experience with Scotland.
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Interesting. I see that Wimbledon also had a vacancy a month before Villa. Would there be any possibility of Ferguson filling that? I don't see him meeting with anything like the success he had at Man U, but I do like the idea of a Ferguson led Wimbledon that usually finishes in the top third of the PL and wins a couple of cup competitions. It might even enough to avert their unfortunate demise further down the road.
nepcotevalley said:
I wonder how Ferguson's absence would affect teams like Blackburn and Newcastle. Particularly Blackburn. Would they still shine brightly for a while but ultimately crash and burn ? Of course there's also Ferguson's mind games to think about. Poor Kenny Dalglish was particularly susceptible to them as I recall.
Click to expand...
From what I can see, Blackburn's failed to sustain their success because of lack of investment after their initial title, Walker's loyalty to the existing squad, and the departure of Dalglish. I don't know that any of that would change if United were less of a factor. In fact, I could see an earlier title leading all of those things to come into play earlier.

I think there is more chance of Newcastle holding on to any success they have in United's absence, as they weren't reliant on a Jack Walker, and continued to compete near the top of the table throughout the early 2000s. Obviously, that would rely on the Ashley ownership being butterflied.
 
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