WI: Ferdinand unites Hungary early then defeats Suleiman in battle

[Fehérvári]

Visualise the following scenario:

Following the disastrous Battle of Mohács and Louis II's death, Ferdinand von Habsburg and John Szapolyai both claim the Hungarian throne for themselves. However unlike IOTL, the Battle of Tarcal(1527) proves to be more decisive, as it results in not only Szapolyai's defeat, but also his death. Ferdinand thus becomes the sole, undisputed King of Hungary.

To solidify his support, Ferdinand pledges to go on the offensive against the Turks and take back what was lost. Already by the end of the year, a few smaller strongholds in the Baranya and Bácska regions are retaken, and in the next year a mixed Habsburg army led by general Niklas Salm manages to defeat the army of the Rumelian Bey near Bács and completely eradicates Ottoman presence North of the Drava-Danube line until the Tisza.

In retaliation to the Habsburg actions, Suleiman leads a new campaign against Hungary in 1529, much like he did IOTL. His army moves slowly, it reaches Belgrade only by the end of July. Not ignorant to the Turkish moves, Ferdinand hurriedly begins to assemble an army of his own. While the Habsburg army is still gathering however, Suleiman's army not only manages to cross the Drava, but also approaches Buda, the Hungarian capital itself. Leaving behind a moderately strong garrison, the Habsburg army retreats and relocates its assembly to Győr.

At this point, the Ottoman army lays siege to Buda and Pest. Mainly thanks to the Turkish failure to deny access to the Danube to the defenders, the twin cities manage to fend of the Turkish onslaught for almost a month, when Ferdinand's army finally comes to the rescue. The Habsburg Army, composed of Hungarian, Czech, Austrian, other German and even a few Italian and Spanish units too, numbers at about 50 000 men. The Ottoman army overall has 80 000 men, however a significant portion of it cannot be relied on as it is stuck on the other side of the Danube, laying siege to Pest. Leaving behind a token force 5 000 men to keep the defenders of Buda in check, Suleiman moves most of his available troops (about 60 000 men) to meet the enemy's army.

The Battle of Budaörs lasts through an entire day. The Turks fail to take advantage of their numerical superiority, thus the fight devolves into a battle of endurance. In the end, the built up fatigue from the long campaign and the dragging siege on the Ottoman side proves to be decisive. The right-wing of the Turkish Army gets pushed back towards the Ottoman camp, which doesn't go unnoticed by the defenders of Buda. With an all or nothing gamble, 4 000 men rushes out to meet their Ottoman opponents. The Turkish troops meant to keep the defenders at bay were already used to replenish the losses of the field battle, what remained of them fails to resist the feverous charge of the defenders who break into the Ottoman camp as a result. Losing their camp and their back being threatened, the Ottomans have no choice but to abandon the battlefield. As such, the battle concludes in Habsburg victory.

The Ottoman army has no other choice to leave behind almost all of their cannons, but otherwise manages to retreat in an orderly fashion. The unscathed Ottoman army on the Pest side also abandons its siege but it can leave without leaving behind any of its equipment.

The Christian army gives chase only days after the battle, but the two armies don't engage anymore.

Ferdinand's envoys reach Suleiman at Belgrade, wishing to discuss terms of peace or a lasting armistice.

So here's the question, what kind of terms would the two sides be willing to discuss? Would the peace effort succeed? If not, what's likely to happen next?

I'm looking forward to your suggestions!

 

[Zygmunt Stary]

So here's the question, what kind of terms would the two sides be willing to discuss? Would the peace effort succeed?

Not immediately (Suleiman would reject), but I'd say if Ferdinand could fight by next 5-6 years, the peace could be achieved with Ferdinand getting at least 80% (so solid majority) of Kingdom of Hungary.

the Battle of Tarcal(1527) proves to be more decisive, as it results in not only Szapolyai's defeat, but also his death.

Well, that changes a few things:
a) I don't really think Turks would just recognize Ferdinand, they'd prop up a new ruler - more dependent on them, Zapolya had a cousin, his name was Peter Petrovics I think, so he might get a shot as new anti-King of Hungary.
b) If Szapolyai is dead, he can't marry https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isabella_Jagiellon (though that's a long term butterfly) and that might butterfly Henri de Valois's and Stephen Batory's reign in Poland

 

[Fehérvári]

Not immediately (Suleiman would reject)

The problem with him rejecting is that he would give opportunity to the Habsburgs to reclaim forts, perhaps even more than they would need to relinquish in the case of a peace agreement. If Belgrade is retaken, the Turks would be back to square 1. Even if that doesn't happen, a huge setback is to be expected.

but I'd say if Ferdinand could fight by next 5-6 years, the peace could be achieved with Ferdinand getting at least 80% (so solid majority) of Kingdom of Hungary.

80%? Where would the rest go? At this point, the areas under Turkish control were rather limited:

a) I don't really think Turks would just recognize Ferdinand, they'd prop up a new ruler - more dependent on them, Zapolya had a cousin, his name was Peter Petrovics I think, so he might get a shot as new anti-King of Hungary.

Why would they do that? Szapolyai wasn't allied or even in contact with the Turks in 1527 yet.

b) If Szapolyai is dead, he can't marry https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isabella_Jagiellon (though that's a long term butterfly) and that might butterfly Henri de Valois's and Stephen Batory's reign in Poland

Who would be a likely match for Isabella ITTL?

 

[Zygmunt Stary]

The problem with him rejecting is that he would give opportunity to the Habsburgs to reclaim forts, perhaps even more than they would need to relinquish in the case of a peace agreement. If Belgrade is retaken, the Turks would be back to square 1. Even if that doesn't happen, a huge setback is to be expected

The problem is - does Suleiman know it? As far as he knows, he has the best army in the known world, while Ferdinand has not. And I don't think Ferdinand could decisively rout Suleiman's armies, though he definitely could tire them enough to gain favorable peace.

80%? Where would the rest go? At this point, the areas under Turkish control were rather limited:

Didn't the areas shown in map make up for like 10% of Hungarian kingdom at the moment? And Syrmia went semi-autonomous under rule of "prince" Radoslav Celnik https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radoslav_Čelnik tho he'd probably pay homage to Ferdinand as well.
Though I probably overestimated (I'm not good at maths at all), what I mean was Ferdinand would not recover full borders of Louis II, though it'd still be better settlement for Hungary and Hungarians that they got IOTL, considering amount of bloodshed they'd avoid.

Why would they do that? Szapolyai wasn't allied or even in contact with the Turks in 1527 yet.

To spite Ferdinand who is their clear enemy. Also all Szapolyai's supporters wouldn't just bow to Ferdinand, some of them would want to keep fighting.

Who would be a likely match for Isabella ITTL?

Some Italian prince due to Bari and Rossano situation.

 

[Fehérvári]

The problem is - does Suleiman know it? As far as he knows, he has the best army in the known world, while Ferdinand has not. And I don't think Ferdinand could decisively rout Suleiman's armies, though he definitely could tire them enough to gain favorable peace.

I essentially blended the Siege of Belgrade(1456) and the Siege of Vienna(1683) for this ATL Siege of Buda in my OP. While I didn't write it to be a rout, it's still a pretty devastating defeat all things considered. The Ottoman army lost most of their cannons, siege equipments and supplies, they're tired and exhausted. Suleiman might hold the belief that his army is unbeatable in open field, and in normal circumstances that would be right, however in such state its army would be very vulnerable.

If you suppose that he would believe that his army would triumph nonetheless, then I could add in to the scenario another battle. Perhaps the other half of the Ottoman army on the right side of the Danube could cross the river at one point, then the entire Ottoman army could regroup and await the pursuing Christian forces on a favourable terrain chosen by them. Once the Habsburg army catches up, a battle could ensue, but it would result in a resounding Ottoman defeat.

It's questionable though wether Ferdinand would still send peace envoys given such circumstances.

Didn't the areas shown in map make up for like 10% of Hungarian kingdom at the moment?

The stripped areas under the line combined make up only an insignicant portion of Hungary's 1512 area, it's nowhere near 10%. And if we only count losses since 1520 (when this exact war started), then it's even less. Strategically though, their importance was disproportionally immense nevertheless.

Though I probably overestimated (I'm not good at maths at all), what I mean was Ferdinand would not recover full borders of Louis II, though it'd still be better settlement for Hungary and Hungarians that they got IOTL, considering amount of bloodshed they'd avoid.

Agreed. The recovery of Eszék is a given, but if Pétervárad is reclaimed as well, that would be a huge boon. Eszék was essential to defend Transdanubia, but Pétervárad also had an excellent strategic position. If reclaimed and reinforced, it could put a stop to Ottoman expansion along the Danube. Unlike Belgrade however, it couldn't secure the path into the Banat and the area along the Tisza, which is a problem. In those directions, the Ottomans would face only lesser obstacles until Szeged and Temesvár.

To spite Ferdinand who is their clear enemy. Also all Szapolyai's supporters wouldn't just bow to Ferdinand, some of them would want to keep fighting.

There was noone besides Szapolyai whom they all could had rallied around. He was the most powerful magnate in the country, after all. Anyone, who could have realisitically replaced him already sweared fealty to Ferdinand. Noone left would dare stand against Ferdinand, especially once he begins his moves against the Turks.

 

[ordinarylittleme]

Would Ferdinand even bother trying to discuss for peace, when he's already basically all but won?

 

[Zygmunt Stary]

I essentially blended the Siege of Belgrade(1456) and the Siege of Vienna(1683) for this ATL Siege of Buda in my OP. While I didn't write it to be a rout, it's still a pretty devastating defeat all things considered. The Ottoman army lost most of their cannons, siege equipments and supplies, they're tired and exhausted. Suleiman might hold the belief that his army is unbeatable in open field, and in normal circumstances that would be right, however in such state its army would be very vulnerable.

If you suppose that he would believe that his army would triumph nonetheless, then I could add in to the scenario another battle. Perhaps the other half of the Ottoman army on the right side of the Danube could cross the river at one point, then the entire Ottoman army could regroup and await the pursuing Christian forces on a favourable terrain chosen by them. Once the Habsburg army catches up, a battle could ensue, but it would result in a resounding Ottoman defeat.

It's questionable though wether Ferdinand would still send peace envoys given such circumstances.

If you compare that to 1683, let's notice that the war lasted until 1699 so more than 10 years after 1683 and Ottomans weren't only getting curbstomped, they put up pretty good fight. If he himself isn't in captivity, the army isn't a huge problem. They'd retreat to Balkans and come again in next year.
The "next battle" scenario is not bad, but IMHO driving out Suleiman and leaving Hungary (mostly) unconquered, would require winning victories (or favourable stalemates) by Habsburgs by 1-2 years, which is the time Suleiman would presumably need to stop wanting to conquer Hungary, which seemed very vulnerable right after Mohacs.

It's questionable though wether Ferdinand would still send peace envoys given such circumstances.

I think he would, he was extremely cautious and calcullating ruler and such total victory against Ottomans would probably endear him to make quick peace and concentrate on internal situation and HRE politics.
Remember that Hungary came freshly out of rule of retard king, with magnates empowered and middle nobility being extremely hostile to Habsburg rule (they were after all, for banning all "foreigners" from succesion) and Ferdinand would probably want to stablilize it rather than pursue some grand conquest dream.

Agreed. The recovery of Eszék is a given, but if Pétervárad is reclaimed as well, that would be a huge boon. Eszék was essential to defend Transdanubia, but Pétervárad also had an excellent strategic position. If reclaimed and reinforced, it could put a stop to Ottoman expansion along the Danube. Unlike Belgrade however, it couldn't secure the path into the Banat and the area along the Tisza, which is a problem. In those directions, the Ottomans would face only lesser obstacles until Szeged and Temesvár.

Eszek is the city Croatians call Osijek? I don't know if Ferdinand would manage to recover Petrovaradin, but I wouldn't bet on it. IMHO it'd become Ottoman garrison border fortress city.

There was noone besides Szapolyai whom they all could had rallied around. He was the most powerful magnate in the country, after all. Anyone, who could have realisitically replaced him already sweared fealty to Ferdinand. Noone left would dare stand against Ferdinand, especially once he begins his moves against the Turks.

Turks could just set up totally insignificant puppet if only to make Ferdinand grant diplomatic concession to them (for example pay them for their candidate abdicating his "claim" to Hungary).

 

[Fehérvári]

Would Ferdinand even bother trying to discuss for peace, when he's already basically all but won?

It's better safe than sorry. Furthermore, in terms of money, time and manpower, it's cheaper to regain some strongholds through peace instead of protracted warring.

If you compare that to 1683, let's notice that the war lasted until 1699 so more than 10 years after 1683 and Ottomans weren't only getting curbstomped, they put up pretty good fight.

Not quite the same situation. There, the war was fought over a much larger area, one that was already long integrated into the Ottoman Empire and had many well-defended and maintained strongholds. Furthermore, the Ottomans would have signed a peace after Vienna if presented, but the Habsburgs were pressured into fully committing to the war, so that wasn't an option.

If he himself isn't in captivity, the army isn't a huge problem. They'd retreat to Balkans and come again in next year.

That's not quite how it worked. Aside from the artillery park being in need of rebuilding, the Ottomans were also incapable of going on campaigns with their entire army on two consecutive years. Soldiers had to return to their lands, and every campaign needed planning and a buildup of supplies beforehand. Generally speaking, the united Ottoman army could go on large campaigns only every third year the earlieast. Until then, only local forces would be available for the Turks, namely the armies of the Rumelian and Bosnian Beys.

The "next battle" scenario is not bad, but IMHO driving out Suleiman and leaving Hungary (mostly) unconquered, would require winning victories (or favourable stalemates) by Habsburgs by 1-2 years, which is the time Suleiman would presumably need to stop wanting to conquer Hungary, which seemed very vulnerable right after Mohacs.

The abovementioned Ottoman "cooldown" allows that. Although, wether Suleiman actually wanted to conquer Hungary at this time is questionable. Supposedly, Suleiman knew that Hungary was too big and too far to control directly just yet, that's why he gave his support to Szapolyai in the first place. Incapacitating Hungary to not pose a threat and secure tribute were the more likely goals of his.

I think he would, he was extremely cautious and calcullating ruler and such total victory against Ottomans would probably endear him to make quick peace and concentrate on internal situation and HRE politics.

I agree, however some things would need to be taken into consideration, namely the security of his new holdings among others. Peace would need to be garantueed for a longer period of time, and the return of atleast a few forts in Szerém has to be secured.

Remember that Hungary came freshly out of rule of retard king,

Louis II wasn't a retard king, he was merely too young when his father first became incapacitated, then later on died. The magnates took advantage of his infancy and empowered themselves. Given his circumstances, he did okay. The army he assembled would have been capable enough to compete against any other European power's besides the Ottomans'.
The problem was, that an okay king wasn't quite enough for Hungary at the time.

middle nobility being extremely hostile to Habsburg rule (they were after all, for banning all "foreigners" from succesion) and Ferdinand would probably want to stablilize it rather than pursue some grand conquest dream.

The key to stabilising his power in Hungary would be his ability to oppose the Turks though. Signing an early, but very disadvantagious peace despite the situation on the ground would do him no good. Just think about the Peace of Vasvár and its consequences.

Eszek is the city Croatians call Osijek?

Yes. As long as it stands, the Drava cannot be crossed from the South, so it's extremely important. The fort was destroyed by the Turks in 1526 though, so they couldn't hold onto it in the given circumstances. That's why I wrote that its return is certain.

I don't know if Ferdinand would manage to recover Petrovaradin, but I wouldn't bet on it. IMHO it'd become Ottoman garrison border fortress city.

I hold the opposite view. With arms, it certainly can be retaken, since it wasn't repaired yet. The question is wether Suleiman would be willing to return it in a peace settlement and wether Ferdinand would take the peace without it.

Anno in 1444, before Varna, Murad II evacuated the entirety of Serbia to secure peace with a not even victorious, civil war-torn Hungary. Compared to that, Suleiman would merely relinquish some of his gains from his latest campaign.

Turks could just set up totally insignificant puppet if only to make Ferdinand grant diplomatic concession to them (for example pay them for their candidate abdicating his "claim" to Hungary).

Such puppet would not even have an ounce of legitimacy, so absolutely noone would care. Not even the greatest despisers of the Habsburgs would back a blatant Ottoman nominee. Hungary is not Wallachia. What works there, does not here.

 

[Zygmunt Stary]

Not quite the same situation. There, the war was fought over a much larger area, one that was already long integrated into the Ottoman Empire and had many well-defended and maintained strongholds. Furthermore, the Ottomans would have signed a peace after Vienna if presented, but the Habsburgs were pressured into fully committing to the war, so that wasn't an option.

Well, yes, but the Ottoman Empire was much weaker than it was in 1683. And the theory that Ottomans would have signed a peace with Habsburgs after the siege of Vienna is unprovable though, because no one even tried to do so. Ottomans may have been willing to sign a peace with Poland to fight Habsburgs in Hungary, though.

That's not quite how it worked. Aside from the artillery park being in need of rebuilding, the Ottomans were also incapable of going on campaigns with their entire army on two consecutive years. Soldiers had to return to their lands, and every campaign needed planning and a buildup of supplies beforehand. Generally speaking, the united Ottoman army could go on large campaigns only every third year the earlieast. Until then, only local forces would be available for the Turks, namely the armies of the Rumelian and Bosnian Beys.

Well, if Suleiman is hellbent on camapaigning, he can try to exhaust Habsburg armies by Rumelian and Bosnian beys forces engaging Habsburgs in petty war while he rebuilds the army in Anatolia.
Especially as Suleiman would want from Ferdinand the same thing he wanted from Louis - tribute and allowing Ottomans to pass their armies through Hungary towards Rome, which is non-starter for Ferdinand.

I agree, however some things would need to be taken into consideration, namely the security of his new holdings among others. Peace would need to be garantueed for a longer period of time, and the return of atleast a few forts in Szerém has to be secured.

Syrmia was under the control of "duke" Radoslav Celnik, who ruled remnant of "Serbian Empire" set up right after Mohacs with "capital" in Szeged by general Jovan Nenad, whose sidekick was Radoslav Celnik.
Celnik was an opportunist so IMHO he'd swear fealty to Ferdinand (as IOTL) and be instated as vassal duke of Syrmia (as IOTL) only without Ottomans fucking his duchy up with Ferdinand being victorious.

Louis II wasn't a retard king, he was merely too young when his father first became incapacitated, then later on died. The magnates took advantage of his infancy and empowered themselves. Given his circumstances, he did okay. The army he assembled would have been capable enough to compete against any other European power's besides the Ottomans'.
The problem was, that an okay king wasn't quite enough for Hungary at the time.

Wasn't he disabled from birth and masturbating in front of his whole court? Anyways, despite of capability or lack thereof of Louis II, I think we might both agree that issues plaguing the country were deeper than just connected to one monarch of lack of him and Ferdinand would need some time to fix it (tho it's doable).

Anno in 1444, before Varna, Murad II evacuated the entirety of Serbia to secure peace with a not even victorious, civil war-torn Hungary. Compared to that, Suleiman would merely relinquish some of his gains from his latest campaign.

In 1444 rival Turkish beyliks were not yet extinguished and dealing with them was more important to Ottomans than Balkans. Also (though Poland was much poorer than Hungary at that time) Vladislaus III was also king of Poland and it made some impression on Turks, considering Turks were in touch with embassy of Vladislaus II, which allegedly stopped projects of full-fledged war between Ottomans and Hungary in late 1420s.

I hold the opposite view. With arms, it certainly can be retaken, since it wasn't repaired yet. The question is wether Suleiman would be willing to return it in a peace settlement and wether Ferdinand would take the peace without it.

Well, the military side can be argued but I don't think Suleiman would be willing to give it up. For Turks preventing Hungarian potential to be used by Habsburgs agains them would be vital interest.

Such puppet would not even have an ounce of legitimacy, so absolutely noone would care. Not even the greatest despisers of the Habsburgs would back a blatant Ottoman nominee. Hungary is not Wallachia. What works there, does not here.

Yeah, that's why that'd be a foil, but I doubt Suleiman exactly knew what Hungarian nobility thought.

 

[Fehérvári]

Well, if Suleiman is hellbent on camapaigning, he can try to exhaust Habsburg armies by Rumelian and Bosnian beys forces engaging Habsburgs in petty war while he rebuilds the army in Anatolia.

The capabilities of these forces on their own were rather limited. They can put a strain on the local defences and can protect their own positions, but exhausting the Habsburg armies altogether is a bit of a tall order.

Especially as Suleiman would want from Ferdinand the same thing he wanted from Louis - tribute and allowing Ottomans to pass their armies through Hungary towards Rome, which is non-starter for Ferdinand.

So there would be no peace, I suppose.

Syrmia was under the control of "duke" Radoslav Celnik, who ruled remnant of "Serbian Empire" set up right after Mohacs with "capital" in Szeged by general Jovan Nenad, whose sidekick was Radoslav Celnik.

Celnik lorded over the countryside of Szerém, but he didn't control the forts. Those were either destroyed/abandoned or garrisoned by the Turks, over whom he had no authority. Nevertheless, Celnik actually entered into Ferdinand's service IOTL in 1530, and remained on his side until his death. He would probably do the same thing ITTL, maybe just sooner, so he wouldn't be a problem.

Wasn't he disabled from birth and masturbating in front of his whole court?

What? I never encountered such claims! From what I read, he was quite bright even as a child and was an overally talented individual. He spoke six languages fluently (Hungarian, Latin, Czech, Polish, German and French) and understood Italian too, danced well and was competent with the sword as well. There's a reason why his queen, Mary von Habsburg was so much in love with him. He did lead a lavish lifestyle, that much is definitely true.

Anyways, despite of capability or lack thereof of Louis II, I think we might both agree that issues plaguing the country were deeper than just connected to one monarch of lack of him and Ferdinand would need some time to fix it (tho it's doable).

Fortunately Mohács (and ITTL Tarcal) took care of many of the problems plaguing the country, if you know what I mean. An obscene amount of land became available to redistribute. Building up an extremely loyal powerbase would be possible in these circumstances. Ferdinand would be in an even better position to this than Charles I was after Csák Máté's death. The return ofstrong royal authority is garantueed.

Well, the military side can be argued but I don't think Suleiman would be willing to give it up. For Turks preventing Hungarian potential to be used by Habsburgs agains them would be vital interest.

So the war would go on. IOTL, Ferdinand's army mounted a pretty impressive albeit ultimately unsuccessful siege against Buda in 1530. ITTL, he would probably do something similar, perhaps even attempt the reconquest of Belgrade itself. Needless to say, its recovery would be a huge moral victory. Still, the end result of the war would depend on Suleiman's 1532 campaign. If it was lost prior, Belgrade would certainly be recovered by the Turks, since its defences would doubtlessly be in quite the dilapidated and thus unholdable state by that point. IOTL, the Ottoman campaign was quite unsuccessful, but it doesn't mean much by itself.

Yeah, that's why that'd be a foil, but I doubt Suleiman exactly knew what Hungarian nobility thought.

In Hungary, it was the diet that elected the ruling dynasty of the country, and an electing diet could only be called by the Nádor(Palatine) (or in case of emergency, by someone with comparable authority like the Voivode of Transylvania or the queen). Obviously, such diet convening by this point was unthinkable. So no, it would not be a foil, because it wouldn't happen at all. There's not a single timeline out there where such thing would happen.

 

[Zygmunt Stary]

The capabilities of these forces on their own were rather limited. They can put a strain on the local defences and can protect their own positions, but exhausting the Habsburg armies altogether is a bit of a tall order.

I didn't say they'd succeed, though. But they can stop Ferdinand from taking over Ottoman lands further and that would be their main task given by Suleiman.

So there would be no peace, I suppose.

Yeah, at least until like 1536.

Celnik lorded over the countryside of Szerém, but he didn't control the forts. Those were either destroyed/abandoned or garrisoned by the Turks, over whom he had no authority. Nevertheless, Celnik actually entered into Ferdinand's service IOTL in 1530, and remained on his side until his death. He would probably do the same thing ITTL, maybe just sooner, so he wouldn't be a problem.

Didn't know that, I thought he actually controlled the forts. I didn't think he'd be problem for Ferdinand, Habsburgs often made use from Serbian leaders as border troops, so he might actually die as a duke, not exile.
He didn't have any sons though, so his duchy will be merged with Crown or given to one of Ferdinand's sons.

What? I never encountered such claims! From what I read, he was quite bright even as a child and was an overally talented individual. He spoke six languages fluently (Hungarian, Latin, Czech, Polish, German and French) and understood Italian too, danced well and was competent with the sword as well. There's a reason why his queen, Mary von Habsburg was so much in love with him. He did lead a lavish lifestyle, that much is definitely true.

Sigismund I's envoy to Hungary described Louis like that in the letter to Sigismund and basically anyone even remotely interested in history in Poland thinks Louis II of Hungary=retard.
Though that might be actually not true, you probably have better sources on the matter.

Fortunately Mohács (and ITTL Tarcal) took care of many of the problems plaguing the country, if you know what I mean. An obscene amount of land became available to redistribute. Building up an extremely loyal powerbase would be possible in these circumstances. Ferdinand would be in an even better position to this than Charles I was after Csák Máté's death. The return ofstrong royal authority is garantueed.

Yeah, I know. I didn't say it would be impossible and during Charles I's time middle nobility had basically no political ambitions. Middle nobility in Ferdinand's times had it, so I think main struggle of Ferdinand's Hungary would be between pro-Habsburg magnates and anti-Habsburg middle nobility party.
Remember that people (in general, nothing against Hungarians specifically, my own nation wasn't free from it either) are mostly ungrateful and I see in 10-15 years lots of middle nobles bitching about Ferdinand taking away their muh freedoms.

So the war would go on. IOTL, Ferdinand's army mounted a pretty impressive albeit ultimately unsuccessful siege against Buda in 1530. ITTL, he would probably do something similar, perhaps even attempt the reconquest of Belgrade itself. Needless to say, its recovery would be a huge moral victory. Still, the end result of the war would depend on Suleiman's 1532 campaign. If it was lost prior, Belgrade would certainly be recovered by the Turks, since its defences would doubtlessly be in quite the dilapidated and thus unholdable state by that point. IOTL, the Ottoman campaign was quite unsuccessful, but it doesn't mean much by itself

You're right in that regard.

In Hungary, it was the diet that elected the ruling dynasty of the country, and an electing diet could only be called by the Nádor(Palatine) (or in case of emergency, by someone with comparable authority like the Voivode of Transylvania or the queen). Obviously, such diet convening by this point was unthinkable. So no, it would not be a foil, because it wouldn't happen at all. There's not a single timeline out there where such thing would happen.

Wasn't the law precisely describing the rules of election passed in the times of Ferdinand's reign? I think it was in 1545.

 

[marcinL]

I didn't say they'd succeed, though. But they can stop Ferdinand from taking over Ottoman lands further and that would be their main task given by Suleiman.



Yeah, at least until like 1536.



Didn't know that, I thought he actually controlled the forts. I didn't think he'd be problem for Ferdinand, Habsburgs often made use from Serbian leaders as border troops, so he might actually die as a duke, not exile.
He didn't have any sons though, so his duchy will be merged with Crown or given to one of Ferdinand's sons.



Sigismund I's envoy to Hungary described Louis like that in the letter to Sigismund and basically anyone even remotely interested in history in Poland thinks Louis II of Hungary=retard.
Though that might be actually not true, you probably have better sources on the matter.





Yeah, I know. I didn't say it would be impossible and during Charles I's time middle nobility had basically no political ambitions. Middle nobility in Ferdinand's times had it, so I think main struggle of Ferdinand's Hungary would be between pro-Habsburg magnates and anti-Habsburg middle nobility party.
Remember that people (in general, nothing against Hungarians specifically, my own nation wasn't free from it either) are mostly ungrateful and I see in 10-15 years lots of middle nobles bitching about Ferdinand taking away their muh freedoms.



You're right in that regard.



Wasn't the law precisely describing the rules of election passed in the times of Ferdinand's reign? I think it was in 1545.

IIRC everyone around Louis did everything they could to ensure he was raised as an idiot

 

[Zygmunt Stary]

IIRC everyone around Louis did everything they could to ensure he was raised as an idiot

Well, according to @Fehérvári it isn't true.

 

[Teutoberg Forest]

Would holding all of Hungary from 1529 shift the center of Habsburg power away from Austria at all? I feel like the gradual assimilation of Hungary was necessary for German to gain dominance over Hungarian in the aristocracy and bureaucracy, whereas if the Habsburgs were to gain all of Hungary at once it might have made sense for them to begin residing in Buda and, if not completely assimilating to the Magyar language and culture, at least not influencing the nobility to adopt German habits as OTL. I don't know that much about this topic though so I'm interested to see what others think.

 

[Fehérvári]

Yeah, at least until like 1536.

I expect peace/armistice being concluded in 1533, like IOTL, because of the war with Persia.

Didn't know that, I thought he actually controlled the forts.

He held Szalánkemén, if not else. The actual state of many strongholds is unclear around this time, tbh.

Sigismund I's envoy to Hungary described Louis like that in the letter to Sigismund and basically anyone even remotely interested in history in Poland thinks Louis II of Hungary=retard.

How very odd. He might have been foolish/short-sighted in some of his decisions (seizing Fugger assets, debasing the currency and facing the Ottomans on open field with just a fraction of the army), but he certainly wasn't a retard.

Yeah, I know. I didn't say it would be impossible and during Charles I's time middle nobility had basically no political ambitions. Middle nobility in Ferdinand's times had it, so I think main struggle of Ferdinand's Hungary would be between pro-Habsburg magnates and anti-Habsburg middle nobility party.

It wasn't so clear cut. The common nobility certainly was loud in peace time, but post-1526, they mostly swayed in the same direction as the local big guy. There were some who could/would act independently, and many of those supported Szapolyai IOTL, but just like in 1490-'92, 1505 and 1516, they weren't a decisive force on their own. Ofcourse, they shouldn't be ignored, they have some weight, but they wouldn't pose a threat to Ferdinand's rule.

Remember that people (in general, nothing against Hungarians specifically, my own nation wasn't free from it either) are mostly ungrateful and I see in 10-15 years lots of middle nobles bitching about Ferdinand taking away their muh freedoms.

Strong royal authority usually benefits the common nobility, as it restricts the magnates' tyranny, but indeed, xenophobia could play a role in gathering an anti-Habsburg crowd. If Ferdinand can present some achievements against the Turks though, the popularity of such movement would dwindle.

Wasn't the law precisely describing the rules of election passed in the times of Ferdinand's reign? I think it was in 1545.

If I'm not mistaken, what I described above was already law since Albert I's death.

IIRC everyone around Louis did everything they could to ensure he was raised as an idiot

Well, according to @Fehérvári it isn't true.

He certainly was raised in a manner, that failed to properly prepare him for his royal duties. Aside from that though, he received proper renessaince education.

Would holding all of Hungary from 1529 shift the center of Habsburg power away from Austria at all?

It certainly would. Instead of being a costly buffer, Hungary would become a source of Habsburg strength much earlier, albeit most of that strength would still be tied down in the defence of the country.

I feel like the gradual assimilation of Hungary was necessary for German to gain dominance over Hungarian in the aristocracy and bureaucracy

German would still become popular among the aristocracy for its convinience. German didn't really dominate in the administration in Hungary IOTL (there were attempts though). Naturally, the official usage of Hungarian wouldn't spread beyond Hungary ITTL either.

whereas if the Habsburgs were to gain all of Hungary at once it might have made sense for them to begin residing in Buda

Residing in Vienna would still make more sense, since Austria, Bohemia and the HRE title combined would still outweight Hungary.

if not completely assimilating to the Magyar language and culture, at least not influencing the nobility to adopt German habits as OTL. I don't know that much about this topic though so I'm interested to see what others think.

The exchange would certainly be more equal ITTL, however the Hungarian nobility was always strongly influenced by their German counterparts since centuries.

 

[Zygmunt Stary]

I feel like the gradual assimilation of Hungary was necessary for German to gain dominance over Hungarian in the aristocracy and bureaucracy,

Did it gain dominance in aristocracy and bureucracy in XVIth century, though? Latin was still mostly used language and German really became prominent in XVIIth century (?)/

He held Szalánkemén, if not else. The actual state of many strongholds is unclear around this time, tbh

Well, Slankamen is a major fortress in the region, so gaining it would be huge buff.

How very odd. He might have been foolish/short-sighted in some of his decisions (seizing Fugger assets, debasing the currency and facing the Ottomans on open field with just a fraction of the army), but he certainly wasn't a retard.

Wow, it's interesting. It turns out he wasn't as bad as I was taught.

It wasn't so clear cut. The common nobility certainly was loud in peace time, but post-1526, they mostly swayed in the same direction as the local big guy. There were some who could/would act independently, and many of those supported Szapolyai IOTL, but just like in 1490-'92, 1505 and 1516, they weren't a decisive force on their own. Ofcourse, they shouldn't be ignored, they have some weight, but they wouldn't pose a threat to Ferdinand's rule.

Yeah, but your post 1533 and post 1536 Hungary isn't quite the same as OTL post 1526 Hungary. Ferdinand getting the Turks fairly quickly out of the country would maintain the delusion of grandeur among middle nobility, something that couldn't be maintained IOTL for obvious reasons. I didn't say that they'd actually threaten Ferdinand's rule in itself, but they'd push for limitation of royal power, something Ferdinand would oppose.

If I'm not mistaken, what I described above was already law since Albert I's death.

Election of Vladislaus of Varna kinda proves the opposite point.

It certainly would. Instead of being a costly buffer, Hungary would become a source of Habsburg strength much earlier, albeit most of that strength would still be tied down in the defence of the country

Yeah, it would, and even with most of the strength tied down to the defence, I'd say Austrian branch would be a lot more powerful ITTL.

at least not influencing the nobility to adopt German habits as OTL

What exactly are the German habits? They certainly didn't adopt German clothing for example.

however the Hungarian nobility was always strongly influenced by their German counterparts since centuries.

Yeah it was, but it didn't amount to much considering there were other, at least equally prominent influences.

German would still become popular among the aristocracy for its convinience

Hm, slightly unrelated but that makes one wonder if "Western Slavic" (Czech, Polish and Slovak didn't really differ from one another in XV-XVIth centuries and there are various text in which you can't exactly say whether they're written in Czech or Polish) could take it's (German's) place if Jagiellons stayed in power and instead of being attached to Austria, Hungary got attached to Bohemia and Poland-Lithuania.

 

[Fehérvári]

Well, Slankamen is a major fortress in the region, so gaining it would be huge buff.

"Major fortress" is a strong word here, but yes, it would be a boon.

Yeah, but your post 1533 and post 1536 Hungary isn't quite the same as OTL post 1526 Hungary. Ferdinand getting the Turks fairly quickly out of the country would maintain the delusion of grandeur among middle nobility, something that couldn't be maintained IOTL for obvious reasons. I didn't say that they'd actually threaten Ferdinand's rule in itself, but they'd push for limitation of royal power, something Ferdinand would oppose.

The middle nobility couldn't even enforce their will against Vladislaus II. What exactly could they accomplish against Ferdinand?

Election of Vladislaus of Varna kinda proves the opposite point.

It actually proves it though? The Palatine called a diet following the queens initial confirmation of the nation's right to elects its king (since Ladislaus V wasn't born yet). Then on the diet, said confirmation was implemented into law and Vladislaus was elected.

Yeah, it would, and even with most of the strength tied down to the defence, I'd say Austrian branch would be a lot more powerful ITTL.

Yes. After all, now all Austrian and Bohemian resources could be directed more freely, and even Hungarian resources could be available in certain periods.

Would this mean that the Imperial estates would be less willing to support the Habsburgs against the Ottomans though? Or the opposite? If not butterflied, how could the later Habsburg designs on the Polish throne go? Still failure?

 

[Zygmunt Stary]

"Major fortress" is a strong word here, but yes, it would be a boon.

Well, it certainly had it's strategical importance.

The middle nobility couldn't even enforce their will against Vladislaus II. What exactly could they accomplish against Ferdinand?

Didn't they convene a diet in 1505 in Rakos when they banned all foreigners from inheriting the crown? Vladislaus II still ignored it, but they did so. They could be an annoyance in Ferdinand's reign, nothing more.

It actually proves it though? The Palatine called a diet following the queens initial confirmation of the nation's right to elects its king (since Ladislaus V wasn't born yet). Then on the diet, said confirmation was implemented into law and Vladislaus was elected.

Wouldn't they need to wait until they know for sure that previous dynasty is over? As you noticed, Ladislaus V wasn't even born yet and there was no way to tell whether he'd be born male or female.

Yes. After all, now all Austrian and Bohemian resources could be directed more freely, and even Hungarian resources could be available in certain periods.

Would this mean that the Imperial estates would be less willing to support the Habsburgs against the Ottomans though? Or the opposite? If not butterflied, how could the later Habsburg designs on the Polish throne go? Still failure?

The estates were quite a non-factor in fight against the Turks, ambitious dukes and princes went out of their free will to fight and that wouldn't change.
Habsburgs with bigger revenue have more ways to bribe nobles and magnates in Poland.

 

[Fehérvári]

Well, it certainly had it's strategical importance.

It certainly did, yet it failed to offer any proper resistance to the Turkish attack in either 1526 or 1532.

Didn't they convene a diet in 1505 in Rakos when they banned all foreigners from inheriting the crown? Vladislaus II still ignored it, but they did so. They could be an annoyance in Ferdinand's reign, nothing more.

It was a self-proclaimed diet amassing practically only the supporters of the late John Corvinus. Its "measures" held no legal power whatsoever. It was essentially just a mob of disgruntled nobles spewing nonsense. This didn't prevent Szapolyai from citing it to legitimise his rule though.

Wouldn't they need to wait until they know for sure that previous dynasty is over? As you noticed, Ladislaus V wasn't even born yet and there was no way to tell whether he'd be born male or female.

The country was in need of a king right away. Wasting time on waiting wether Queen Elisabeth's child would be a male, female, or alive in the first place was not something many was keen on. Also, as I said, the electoral diet convened only after Elisabeth's consent, so she essentially abdicated in the name of her yet-to-be-born child(, which she later retracted once Ladislaus V was born).

The estates were quite a non-factor in fight against the Turks

Reichskrieg - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Long Turkish War - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

I would say these were atleast relatively substantial contributions.

ambitious dukes and princes went out of their free will to fight and that wouldn't change.

True. Especially since attaining the goodwill of the emperor like that is more meaningful if he's more powerful.

Habsburgs with bigger revenue have more ways to bribe nobles and magnates in Poland.

And Báthory wouldn't get in the way either.

Somewhat related, if the Livonian War and Northern Seven Years' War still happen, and the Treaty of Stettin is signed, what if Emperor Max would be able to pay for the Swedish possessions ITTL?

 

[Zygmunt Stary]

It certainly did, yet it failed to offer any proper resistance to the Turkish attack in either 1526 or 1532.

No Hungarian fortress actually did stop it, so going in that direction, we should say that Hungary had no major fortresses and that is obviously not true.

It was a self-proclaimed diet amassing practically only the supporters of the late John Corvinus. Its "measures" held no legal power whatsoever. It was essentially just a mob of disgruntled nobles spewing nonsense. This didn't prevent Szapolyai from citing it to legitimise his rule though

Yeah, but still events like this aren't impossible to repeat in future. Especially as middle nobility still has that delusion of grandeur after defeating Turks.

The country was in need of a king right away. Wasting time on waiting wether Queen Elisabeth's child would be a male, female, or alive in the first place was not something many was keen on. Also, as I said, the electoral diet convened only after Elisabeth's consent, so she essentially abdicated in the name of her yet-to-be-born child(, which she later retracted once Ladislaus V was born).

Ok, understood. Looking at the matter like that, your claim about that law being in place since Albert II/I makes sense.

I would say these were atleast relatively substantial contributions.

Ok, you have a point here, but Habsburgs would have actually more means to bribe the members of estates.

And Báthory wouldn't get in the way either.

Bathory would be nobody ITTL.

Somewhat related, if the Livonian War and Northern Seven Years' War still happen, and the Treaty of Stettin is signed, what if Emperor Max would be able to pay for the Swedish possessions ITTL?

I think he'd be able to do so ITTL if he has Hungary not destroyed by constant warring with Turks and without Transylvania being independent.