The recent discussion about the Iberian Union started me thinking about the 17th century Spanish Empire. Contemporaneous to the Portuguese revolt there were revolts in Catalonia and Naples each with varying degrees of Spanish support as part of the ongoing Franco-Spanish War. So would it have been possible for Naples to break away from Spain mid-century a la Portugal?
Naples revolted several times at one point briefly kicking out the Spanish and declaring a Royal Neapolitan Republic in 1647 and inviting the Duke of Guise to lead them. The Spanish of course suppressed this revolt but Naples remained restless. The French attempted expeditions later on, such as 1654 when they contemplated putting Christina of Sweden on the Spanish throne. But after the Peace of the Pyrenees French support dried up and Naples remained under Spanish control until Spanish Italy was dismembered during the War of Spanish Succession.
So is it possible for Naples to break away under a pro-French ruler during this period? I would think the Duke of Guise would be better as he's actually an heir of the House of Anjou and more importantly he would insure an independent line of Kings where as Christina was to pass Naples to the Dauphin and thus to France on her death. Though neither of them seem like they would be stellar rulers. So perhaps if a better candidate was found, one who could rally Neapolitans to his/her banner, the chances of success would increase.
I suppose it would also require greater nationalism on the part of the feudal nobility and stronger anti-Spanish sentiment that could sustain a long independence struggle and survive without being dependent upon the French. I think Papal recognition would also play a role as Naples is not only in Italy but is still de jure a fief held of the Pope. Is that enough? And what would the effects be? Faster decline of Spain in the back half of the century? More independent, less hegemonic (Spanish then Austrian OTL) domination of Italy? Any thoughts?
Naples revolted several times at one point briefly kicking out the Spanish and declaring a Royal Neapolitan Republic in 1647 and inviting the Duke of Guise to lead them. The Spanish of course suppressed this revolt but Naples remained restless. The French attempted expeditions later on, such as 1654 when they contemplated putting Christina of Sweden on the Spanish throne. But after the Peace of the Pyrenees French support dried up and Naples remained under Spanish control until Spanish Italy was dismembered during the War of Spanish Succession.
So is it possible for Naples to break away under a pro-French ruler during this period? I would think the Duke of Guise would be better as he's actually an heir of the House of Anjou and more importantly he would insure an independent line of Kings where as Christina was to pass Naples to the Dauphin and thus to France on her death. Though neither of them seem like they would be stellar rulers. So perhaps if a better candidate was found, one who could rally Neapolitans to his/her banner, the chances of success would increase.
I suppose it would also require greater nationalism on the part of the feudal nobility and stronger anti-Spanish sentiment that could sustain a long independence struggle and survive without being dependent upon the French. I think Papal recognition would also play a role as Naples is not only in Italy but is still de jure a fief held of the Pope. Is that enough? And what would the effects be? Faster decline of Spain in the back half of the century? More independent, less hegemonic (Spanish then Austrian OTL) domination of Italy? Any thoughts?