WI: Earlier Brazilian republic?

Taunay

Taunay

It may not be that known, but the removal of Pedro I from the Brazilian throne in 1831 was actually implemented by Republican-leaning military officers who wanted a Republic to be implemented in Brazil.
Say that for this WI Pedro I takes Pedro II with him to Europe, and the military officially declares a Republic of Brazil. How would this impact the country? Would we still see Regency-era revolts? Would they be reduced? Or would they actually be worse than IOTL?
How would an earlier Brazilian Republic change South American history in general? IOTL the Republic was quite pacifist, but I can't see the same happening for this earlier Republic, in fact I could see it being even more aggressive than the Empire, given that Pedro II abhorred wars of conquest and was more predisposed to dialogue with Argentina and the rest of South America rather than bellic action
 
Belka DNW

Belka DNW

Argentine-like Caudillismo/Coronelismo for the first decades until a strong central government imposes itself? Other than that, I don't think much would change, this country basically never does, it's the same landed orligarchy that actually calls the shots, they just put on different costumes.
 
Aluma

Aluma

I think a lot would change

If we assume this Republic is anywhere like like OTL Regency since it would be ruled by the same people and without a monarch, then its pretty much that, the Regency if it became official and kept going without the prospect of Royal Restoration, its a No Pedro II scenario

We also have to keep in mind that during the Regency Period slavery became more entrenched than ever in Brazil, and with the land elites continuing to rule unopposed(think the equivalent of the Brazilian Empire if the Conservative Party kept ruling forever, no Liberal Party and no Emperor pestering them) we would most likely be like a giant Confederacy led by the same kind of people that led the Old Republic

This is by itself an absolute disaster and the country will likely fall apart with more rebellions in the near future, either that or its kept together by the iron grip of a Floriano Peixoto style caudilho

But I also dont think we would start off with one, the Regency did not, so my expectation is a oligarchical republic keeping the appearances of democracy under the watchful eyes of the latifundiaries

The rise of a military strongman would likely be a reaction to this Republic's decline, much like how we got the Estado Novo IOTL, and would take a while to happen and would do so in the middle of a alt-crisis
 
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