WI: Downing Street Mortar Attack actually hit 10 Downing Street

[tehskyman]

As the title says.

IRL the mortar landed in the backyard of 10 Downing, but say by some chance the headwind was stronger and the shell landed directly on top of 10 Downing killing most of the cabinet in the process. What happens then?

Who becomes PM if the entire cabinet dies? Any retaliation?

 

[MarkhamS.Pyle]

It was only the War Cabinet present, with the Cabinet Secretary and some high-flyer civil servants (including Gus O’Donnell and Charles Powell), and the Chief of Defence Staff, MRAF Sir David Craig.

Hezza, Clarke, Michael Howard, and others might be tapped as a caretaker, but the 1922 Committee weren’t likely to wear the first two, at least. After all, it was the War Cabinet present, in the midst of the Gulf War. It’s not impossible that in this emergency, a certain backbencher, the Rt Hon. Member for Finchley, returns to Downing Street: Maggie’s Back.

General Sir Richard Vincent succeeds as CDS.

There’ll certainly be retaliation, if you call it that; the first suspects will be Iraq. If the IRA claims the attack or is found to have been responsible, in time of war, with the US and UK engaged in allied operations against an enemy, then Boston, NORAID, and every living Kennedy shan’t matter: the IRA’s for the high jump, and the Republic may as well simply cooperate.

 

[Mike D]

There’ll certainly be retaliation, if you call it that; the first suspects will be Iraq. If the IRA claims the attack or is found to have been responsible, in time of war, with the US and UK engaged in allied operations against an enemy, then Boston, NORAID, and every living Kennedy shan’t matter: the IRA’s for the high jump, and the Republic may as well simply cooperate.

I doubt Iraq was ever a suspect - it was a standard Mk 10 IRA mortar that was used and they quickly claimed responsibility afterwards.

 

[tallthinkev]

I should think number ten would have been strengthen, after Brighton just about any IRA bomb or mortar attack would lead to much less damage than before 1984.

 

[yulzari]

There is no moral difference between this and any other terrorist attack. Slightly less concerning inasmuch as the victims were at least part of the government combatting US funded PIRA terrorism. The attacks on random civilians were even more concerning. I think that talk of retaliation is overblown. The Republic was part of the cooperation to defeat PIRA operations. Both London and Dublin were well aware that the campaign was one for a political solution and a police/intelligence matter. The two armies were acting in support of the civilian powers and only to stabilise the actions, not to militarily defeat them. By this time even some of the senior members of PIRA were beginning to worry about the naked genocidal racism of some of their colleagues and the process of recognising that Dublin and London were being remarkably restrained in their responses and seeing that a political negotiation with them was of more benefit than driving NI deeper into sectarian violence and poverty. Not the time to ramp up the confrontation by rounding up most of the PIRA membership, which was within their grasp had they chosen. It was, and is, a lot more complicated than a crude them and us model.

 

[Coulsdon Eagle]

This may be stating the obvious but...

John Major played an important but understated role in the peace process that led to the Good Friday agreement, OTL despite the attack.

Kill off Major and the IRA achieve what they wanted - a blow to the peace process. I can't see his successor be willing to break bread with McGuiness & Adams. Major could because he could always point back to nearly being killed and show how determined he was to make the Process work despite that.

May have butterflies for the 1997 General Election, but assume Blair still wins. His freedom for action over NI would be severely curtailed - he'd be crucified in the press for dealing with a predecessor's murderers (regardless of who actually ordered the attack).

 

[Cryhavoc101]

The Brighton Grand Hotel Bombing certainly put back the peace process as HMG could not be seen to be being influenced or bowing to a terrorist act

Whether a 2nd such attack would impart the same delay is questionable as far more had been done in the back ground i.e. much more Irish and US involvement (with the Irish Army Guarding banks etc and the US doing more to stop funding and intercepting arms etc)

So I think that the attack would be far more likely to be "brushed off" as the attackers being a 'rogue' element

As for a draconian response - I do know many people who were in the British military at the time and they knew virtually everyone in the organization and could have wiped them out in 72 hours had they chosen too.

However it was the then opinion that apart from being very flaky (understatement) from a legal standpoint it would be counter productive in the long term.

The practice of internment of IRA and other Paramilitary types while undoubtedly saving many lives was about as legally Flaky as a then British Government was willing to go.

The Loughgall Ambush and other like it in which the SAS were supposedly involved in what might be (and where) called 'non-judiciary' killings of IRA members was well beyond this and I cannot see any of the then HMGs wanting to jump down that particular rabbit hole.

 

[aaronupright]

The moment a military says we could wipe the enemy out in 72 hours if we want to, unless they intend to inflict a cleansing thermonuclear fire on the said enemy, they are delusional.

Certainly the British army could have inflicted much greater cost on the PIRA, with some alacrity. Besides being politically difficult, it would have led to type of retaliation that the UK absolutely would not be politically ready for. OTL the collapse of the Soviet block had led to the worlds militias being awash in arms of all types and mercs willing to train and fight. N Ireland mostly avoided that.

Now imagine a much bigger N Ireland insurgency. Instead a British soldier dying every fortnight, make it every day. Imagine regular shoot downs of helicopters. Royal Tank Regiment squaddies dying in urban ambushes like the Guards Tank battalions guys did in Grozny and 16th Air assault Brigade troopers being cut to ribbons like 76th Air Assault did.

 

[Cryhavoc101]

The moment a military says we could wipe the enemy out in 72 hours if we want to, unless they intend to inflict a cleansing thermonuclear fire on the said enemy, they are delusional.

Certainly the British army could have inflicted much greater cost on the PIRA, with some alacrity. Besides being politically difficult, it would have led to type of retaliation that the UK absolutely would not be politically ready for. OTL the collapse of the Soviet block had led to the worlds militias being awash in arms of all types and mercs willing to train and fight. N Ireland mostly avoided that.

Now imagine a much bigger N Ireland insurgency. Instead a British soldier dying every fortnight, make it every day. Imagine regular shoot downs of helicopters. Royal Tank Regiment squaddies dying in urban ambushes like the Guards Tank battalions guys did in Grozny and 16th Air assault Brigade troopers being cut to ribbons like 76th Air Assault did.

No you misunderstand

Most of the active members of the PIRA were known (with great detail) to the British security forces due to them being infiltrated with moles and civilian provided intel - and we are talking about 1000 odd people here - not an entire sub section of the Irish population.

A 'taking the gloves off' approach would have crippled certainly in the short term any ability for the PIRA to retaliate but would not be a good idea for the long term peace process and would have created a great deal of civilian unrest - but it would not have become little Grozny unless the British had become as draconian as the Russians had been turning large parts of the population against the British.

Although actions like the Coagh ambush (technically a non judicial killing of 3 IRA Members) did lead to 'civilian unrest and riots' I do note that it did bring the then cycle of 'tit for tat' sectarian killings to a close.

That being said I do not condone such actions - there is no death penalty in the UK.

Lastly for the UK military to emulate the 'Skills' shown by the Russian Army during the Battle for Grozny - they would have to arm boy scouts supported by the Salvation army lead by people whose military knowledge was gleaned from watching war films and reading comics.

And even then I suspect they would have done a better job.

 

[Peelitebkearns]

"It’s not impossible that in this emergency, a certain backbencher, the Rt Hon. Member for Finchley, returns to Downing Street: Maggie’s Back."

While not impossible, Thatcher returning is on balance very unlikely in this scenario (as apposed to impossible with any other post resignation POD, mind you). If Thatcher is reinstalled I'd expect it'd only be on a caretaker basis, until the Tories have chosen a new leader. Ironically, I think Geoffrey Howe is far more likely to be picked than Mrs T, though again it'd probably be on a temporary, steady the ship of state sort of basis. Thatcher being asked to serve in the cabinet is slightly more likely, but I guess she'd probably decline the offer if asked.

I also don't see any major retaliations-as others have said, the will was there to move forward. So I'd expect more than a few angry words exchanged diplomatically (and the tabloids undoubtedly won't hold back), but this will merely delay, rather than prevent, an agreement imho.

I wonder what this does to the election (which has to happen by the following year)-my guestimate is that whoever is picked as conservative leader would probably win a majority somewhere in the region of 30 to 40 seats (or perhaps a little better given the circumstances), as long as they don't massively overreach, or mess up in a way that Major didn't in OTL. No idea who the new leader would be, but a good bet would be the most senior cabinet member in the Major government to have survived the attack.

 

[sparky42]

The Brighton Grand Hotel Bombing certainly put back the peace process as HMG could not be seen to be being influenced or bowing to a terrorist act

Whether a 2nd such attack would impart the same delay is questionable as far more had been done in the back ground i.e. much more Irish and US involvement (with the Irish Army Guarding banks etc and the US doing more to stop funding and intercepting arms etc)

So I think that the attack would be far more likely to be "brushed off" as the attackers being a 'rogue' element

As for a draconian response - I do know many people who were in the British military at the time and they knew virtually everyone in the organization and could have wiped them out in 72 hours had they chosen too.

However it was the then opinion that apart from being very flaky (understatement) from a legal standpoint it would be counter productive in the long term.

The practice of internment of IRA and other Paramilitary types while undoubtedly saving many lives was about as legally Flaky as a then British Government was willing to go.

The Loughgall Ambush and other like it in which the SAS were supposedly involved in what might be (and where) called 'non-judiciary' killings of IRA members was well beyond this and I cannot see any of the then HMGs wanting to jump down that particular rabbit hole.

Banks were never the target of PIRA it was Cash in Transit that they targeted and the DF has been protecting them long before the 90s. Plenty of childhood memories of a squad of infantry escorting the cash truck, sometimes even a Cessna overhead if it was very large money, or the next town over had been up to their usual shite.

 

[Cryhavoc101]

Banks were never the target of PIRA it was Cash in Transit that they targeted and the DF has been protecting them long before the 90s. Plenty of childhood memories of a squad of infantry escorting the cash truck, sometimes even a Cessna overhead if it was very large money, or the next town over had been up to their usual shite.

That's fair enough. I was visiting a cousin in Sligo some years back and one morning was shocked out of my very heavy hangover (I did mention I was Sligo?) when I almost walked into 2 very bored looking Steyr AUG toting Irish soldiers outside a bank.

This was some time after the troubles were over and I was very surprised to see them.

Apparently it was because they were expecting a Money delivery according to my cousin (who went on to say that they do fuck all else!)

 

[sparky42]

That's fair enough. I was visiting a cousin in Sligo some years back and one morning was shocked out of my very heavy hangover (I did mention I was Sligo?) when I almost walked into 2 very bored looking Steyr AUG toting Irish soldiers outside a bank.

This was some time after the troubles were over and I was very surprised to see them.

Apparently it was because they were expecting a Money delivery according to my cousin (who went on to say that they do fuck all else!)

The cash in transit escorts went on until the late 00’s or early teens until the government asked for more money. That was one of the grinds that people saw rather than just what they did, though the army hated the job.

It goes back till the 70s from memory, my dad tells stories about working near the border back then.

It’s strange, put me in the states with armed cops and I hate it, 30+ years of seeing army troops with assault rifles doesn’t even phase me.

 

[Grey Wolf]

Wasn't Heseltine Deputy Prime Minister? Wouldn't that mean he had interim office?

 

[Mike D]

The moment a military says we could wipe the enemy out in 72 hours if we want to, unless they intend to inflict a cleansing thermonuclear fire on the said enemy, they are delusional.

I remember going up one of the watch towers in South Armagh in 2001 (from memory). The lads down there knew every detail of the lives of every single person who lived within about ten miles of the tower. Genuinely.

I remember seeing a woman getting into a car outside a house - they looked down to see what car it was and reeled off her name, her husband's name, where they both worked, the name of the fella she was shagging behind his back, that fella's wife's name, where they lived and worked, what make of car he drove and what time he came round for his afternoon ride. They knew everything. They showed us the houses of every PIRA member that lived within sight of the tower along with what they drove, where they drank, and their daily routine.

By the 90s the IRA was infested from top to bottom with touts, many times the Army and RUC knew things that were going on in the organisation before the PIRA footsoldiers did.

Had the UK suddenly decided to wipe them out (not that I think we would have done), I can't see any reason why the vast majority wouldn't be dead within a few days so long as the resources to close the border before they could all leg it to Dundalk were put into place. We knew more about most of them than they did.

 

[Techdread]

Wasn't Heseltine Deputy Prime Minister? Wouldn't that mean he had interim office?

Deputy Prime Minister isn't a constitutional position though; it doesn't grant the nearer any kind of authority and is typically amongst other offices the bearer holds to allow them to sit in cabinet, a government role, salary, etc. I'm fairly sure that a vignette was done by @Meadow around the situation of Cameron dying in office during the coalition years when Clegg was Deputy PM but didn't mean he would take over as PM, even on an interim basis. (Here it is!)

On the subject itself, @AlfieJ & I started a TL many years ago based around this happening that was sadly unfinished by us (Found here). We had Maggie return briefly before it all went wrong for almost every succeeding PM, however we didn't get much beyond the potential chaos of the 1990s than we had tentative plans for otherwise.

 

[Grey Wolf]

Deputy Prime Minister isn't a constitutional position though; it doesn't grant the nearer any kind of authority and is typically amongst other offices the bearer holds to allow them to sit in cabinet, a government role, salary, etc. I'm fairly sure that a vignette was done by @Meadow around the situation of Cameron dying in office during the coalition years when Clegg was Deputy PM but didn't mean he would take over as PM, even on an interim basis. (Here it is!)

On the subject itself, @AlfieJ & I started a TL many years ago based around this happening that was sadly unfinished by us (Found here). We had Maggie return briefly before it all went wrong for almost every succeeding PM, however we didn't get much beyond the potential chaos of the 1990s than we had tentative plans for otherwise.

Well in the Coalition, the Tories were the senior partner so the successor would be a Tory - probably Osborne

With Major, Hesseltine had the position of Deputy PM as he represented a powerful rival faction in the party. That faction is going to back him

I can't pretend I know how it would turn out

 

[Techdread]

Well in the Coalition, the Tories were the senior partner so the successor would be a Tory - probably Osborne

With Major, Hesseltine had the position of Deputy PM as he represented a powerful rival faction in the party. That faction is going to back him

I can't pretend I know how it would turn out

I was more making the point that Heseltine as Deputy PM had no more right to serve as the next PM than anyone else did on a constitutional level.

 

[aaronupright]

I remember going up one of the watch towers in South Armagh in 2001 (from memory). The lads down there knew every detail of the lives of every single person who lived within about ten miles of the tower. Genuinely.

I remember seeing a woman getting into a car outside a house - they looked down to see what car it was and reeled off her name, her husband's name, where they both worked, the name of the fella she was shagging behind his back, that fella's wife's name, where they lived and worked, what make of car he drove and what time he came round for his afternoon ride. They knew everything. They showed us the houses of every PIRA member that lived within sight of the tower along with what they drove, where they drank, and their daily routine.

By the 90s the IRA was infested from top to bottom with touts, many times the Army and RUC knew things that were going on in the organisation before the PIRA footsoldiers did.

Had the UK suddenly decided to wipe them out (not that I think we would have done), I can't see any reason why the vast majority wouldn't be dead within a few days so long as the resources to close the border before they could all leg it to Dundalk were put into place. We knew more about most of them than they did.

You think American soldiers don’t know about their targets in Iraq and Afghanistan? Or Israelis in Occupied territories. Or Russians in Chechnya. Or Indians in...Just select someplace. You think any of them could end the insurgency in 72 hours? Yeah didn’t think so.

When a population generally or a person is under observation, the intelligence agencies will learn **extremely intimate** things about 5heir targets. Soldiers observing an area will quickly learn things about most of the locals, moreso even the other locals know (since it’s part of the soldiers jobs). Intel targets often will find pretty much all their life details being seen by the “watchers”. I have personally seen surveillance videos in which targets are having their family meals, NETFLIX watching and yes even sex, (drugs cases, people were under watch) for instance.

 

[Llamastrangler]

Hezza was only Environment Secretary at the time, not a particularly senior Cabinet post- he didn’t become Deputy PM until as late as ‘95. Of course, he’s still blatantly a contender.

Looks as though Kenneth Baker is the sole surviving holder of a Great Office of State. Can’t imagine him as PM.

This might be a little early for a right wing Europhobe- the One Nation Hezza faction was perhaps in the ascendant before the ‘92 intake?