WI: Dole Dies in 1996 Before the Election

Octosteel

In 1996, Bob Dole was the oldest first time Presidential nominee at a spry 73 years. So what would have happened if Bob Dole died before the election, before even the first debate?

Would Jack Kemp ascend to the top of the ticket? He was pro-gay rights after all which would not sit well with the religious right who were already unhappy with Dole picking Kemp. Would the party allow such a huge portion of the Republican coalition to be pushed away?

Would the party host an emergency convention? If so, who would be frontrunners to be the new nominee? John Engler? Phil Gramm? Dan Quayle? John McCain? Jim Edgar?
 

dw93

My guess is that Kemp would ascend to the top of the ticket and his running mate would a Republican who was both fiscally moderate (Kemp was a staunch supply sider) and socially conservative to balance the ticket.


Even this doesn't stop Clinton from winning though. A sympathy boost might help the GOP a little, but not enough to overtake Clinton.
 

GeographyDude

Gone Fishin'
I would have hated to see the guy go. In fact, Bob's still living at 92 years young!

Okay, if he had died during the campaign. Procedurally, I'm not sure. I think holding even a mini emergency convention would be a really big deal.

Now, politically there would be some sympathy, but people also blame outcome. That's just what people do. So, they would likely blame the party for nominating someone too old. Even though Reagan once said about himself that he was just barely old enough to be chief executive according to Japanese law!
 

1940LaSalle

How about this: Kemp becomes the standard-bearer, and names relatively new senator (and former representative) Olympia Snowe as his running mate. I have to wonder if the combination plus the various clouds over the Clinton administration at the time might not be enough to make the election very interesting--if not an upset outright.
 

Octosteel

1940LaSalle said:
How about this: Kemp becomes the standard-bearer, and names relatively new senator (and former representative) Olympia Snowe as his running mate. I have to wonder if the combination plus the various clouds over the Clinton administration at the time might not be enough to make the election very interesting--if not an upset outright.
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I don't think the Republican base or the party are going to allow two social moderates on the Republican ticket.
 

1940LaSalle

Maybe and maybe not. Don't forget Kemp was a fiscal conservative. And both have broad enough appeal to make unseating Clinton more than a faint hope. Spun right, it would make more than a few swing voters think long and hard about voting for Billy Jeff and the Android again.
 

GeographyDude

Gone Fishin'
Dole was a poor candidate in '96.

Maybe the way the primaries work, for both parties, are just too front loaded?

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Again, 73 years is not 'too old'! Very much depends on the person's health and their family longevity.
 
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dw93

1940LaSalle said:
Maybe and maybe not. Don't forget Kemp was a fiscal conservative. And both have broad enough appeal to make unseating Clinton more than a faint hope. Spun right, it would make more than a few swing voters think long and hard about voting for Billy Jeff and the Android again.
Click to expand...

I disagree. The base turned on Bush in 1992 because they didn't think he was conservative enough, and Bush had a very conservative (although a bit dim) VP. I don't think the GOP base would tolerate two moderates in 1996. Pre 1980 they would, but post Reagan two moderates on a Republican ticket isn't a winning ticket.
 

David T

The RNC meets and chooses Kemp as Dole's successor as candidate for president. My guess is that the new VP candidate will be a Midwestern governor--maybe John Engler of Michigan.

The ticket goes on to lose in November.
 
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