WI: Different Turkish Settler Patterns in the Balkans From OTL?

[B-29_Bomber]

(Disclaimer: I know ethnic/religious issues are a major problem in the Balkans IRL, however, this is not meant to fan those flames. Let's have a civil as well as interesting discussion.)

What if the Turks had a different settler patterns in the Balkans from OTL?

The assumption is that the Ottomans achieve more or less the same borders as OTL.

Here are the options:

200% more than OTL.
175% more than OTL.
150% more than OTL.
125% more than OTL.
100% more than OTL.
75% more than OTL.
50% more than OTL.
25% more than OTL.
25% less than OTL.
50% less than OTL.
75% Less than OTL.
100% Less than OTL.
125% Less than OTL.
150% Less than OTL.
175% Less than OTL.
200% Less than OTL.

(Note: If you wish to ignore the more extreme percentages then that's fine, I just added them to be thorough.)

Focused more Northward than OTL (i.e. those who were settled in the south OTL are settled in the North ITTL).
Same Focus as OTL.
Focused more in the South along the Aegean than OTL.

What would be the effects on the Post-Ottoman Balkans? The Empire as a whole? What kind of borders would the Balkans have?

 

[Ameck16]

The problems imo was not that not enough Turks or muslims settled in the Balkans, but it was where they settled that had the most impact. Muslims and Turks usually settled in urban areas such as towns and cities while the remaining country side was many indigenous Balkan Christians. In otl over 1 million Turks and muslims settled in the balkans, the numbers where their but since they where concentrated in a small area they were easily targeted and expelled from the balkans when the natives gained control.

What you need in order to get a more Turkish balkans is to have many on the settlers lay down roots in villages and work the land.

 

[EMT]

The honest ugly answer is that so long as there are already Balkan Christian peasants, the Turkish settlers won't be able to make a region Turkish and Muslim without a very concentrated effort to assimilate them(something the Ottomans largely tried to avoid since that means a loss on their Christian tax base) or have the lands be emptied of their populace through accident(Think the Thirty Year's War, where depopulation was a side effect rather than the goal) or deliberate action(Ethnic cleansing). History doesn't have many examples of a complete displacement of the existing populace of a region in favor of another without the above-mentioned calamities or assimilation. If the land is below carrying capacity however, then there's a chance to establish stronger rural Turkish enclaves via active Ottoman intervention.

 

[cmakk1012]

Wouldn't the logical location of increased rural settlement be in the regions closest to modern Turkey? So Western Thrace, southern Bulgaria, etc.

The main region for increased settlement would be if Turkish population increased across the Empire. Were there any major disasters that lowered Turkish populations OTL that could be avoided? I'm not knowledgeable enough to know about any except Timur, and he seems too early for this idea.