WI: Dewey promoted the Pearl Harbor advance-knowledge conspiracy theory in the 1944 election?

[Ambusher11]

During the 1944 election, Thomas Dewey, the Republican presidential candidate in 1944, was considering promoting the conspiracy theory that Franklin Roosevelt knew about the attack on Pearl Harbor beforehand and intentionally allowed it to happen. This allegation could have revealed to the Japanese that their codes were broken and cause them to change them, harming the war effort in the Pacific. Fortunately, George Marshall told Dewey to not bring up the subject, and Dewey complied.

What if Dewey decided to promote the Pearl Harbor advance-knowledge conspiracy theory in the 1944 election? Would this end up helping or harming Dewey's chances in 1944? Would Japan find out about their codes being broken and change them, and if so, how much harm does this do to the war effort in the Pacific? If Dewey still loses in 1944, would his promotion of the Pearl Harbor advance-knowledge conspiracy theory harm his chances of getting nominated or winning in the 1948 election?

 

[overoceans]

Amused headline writers invent tH1S StYLe oF f0nT sixty years earlier.

 

[Amadeus]

During the 1944 election, Thomas Dewey, the Republican presidential candidate in 1944, was considering promoting the conspiracy theory that Franklin Roosevelt knew about the attack on Pearl Harbor beforehand and intentionally allowed it to happen. This allegation could have revealed to the Japanese that their codes were broken and cause them to change them, harming the war effort in the Pacific. Fortunately, George Marshall told Dewey to not bring up the subject, and Dewey complied.

What if Dewey decided to promote the Pearl Harbor advance-knowledge conspiracy theory in the 1944 election? Would this end up helping or harming Dewey's chances in 1944? Would Japan find out about their codes being broken and change them, and if so, how much harm does this do to the war effort in the Pacific? If Dewey still loses in 1944, would his promotion of the Pearl Harbor advance-knowledge conspiracy theory harm his chances of getting nominated or winning in the 1948 election?

In the political climate of 1944, I don't think that accusing the President of deliberately allowing the Japanese to attack the United States would go over well.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

What if Dewey decided to promote the Pearl Harbor advance-knowledge conspiracy theory in the 1944 election? Would this end up helping or harming Dewey's chances in 1944? Would Japan find out about their codes being broken and change them, and if so, how much harm does this do to the war effort in the Pacific?

Which codes? The Brits identified 24 or 25 distinct code or encryption systems used by the Japanese. Most were broken by 1944, tho some like the Diplomatic code were unimportant by then. The one that really mattered, the JN-25 used by the Japanese Navy to secure high level radio messages between fleets & the home islands was regularly changed anyway. It was the Japanese habit to change the keys for the JN-25 before any medium or large scale operation, & if none occurred then every calendar quarter. It was a repeating game with the USN Cryptographers, determining the new keys and breaking back into this navy code.

The Water Transport Code, used by the Japanese Army to coordinate its cargo ships went little changed through the war. This easily broken code provided many clues to the USN about preparations for major operations, and for positioning submarines and planning air strikes on Japanese cargo shipping.

One code never broken according to British sources was the Japanese Army equivalent to the JN-25. This high level Army encryption remained opaque to the end.

If Dewey still loses in 1944, would his promotion of the Pearl Harbor advance-knowledge conspiracy theory harm his chances of getting nominated or winning in the 1948 election?

Some people will look on Dewey as brain dead or a clown for raising this one. While the conspiracy theory remains a twitching zombie to this davit never had legs among the general population. Particularly after the Congressional investigation was published. Still some will be delighted he repeated the idea in public, tho they would have voted for the devil if he was running against Roosevelt. As time passes he may very well lose some sort of support for floating this one.

 

[ejpsan]

FDR and the Democratic Party will attack Dewey in such a way that it will make the "Fala Speach" look like a love tap as Dewey is portrayed as Unpatriotic in the more serious attacks and is "Putting American Boys at risk" and being shown not a "serious leader" in the more humorous attacks.
Dewey would have probably lost the popular vote by more than 10% compared to losing by just over 7% that he did.
That could affect the down ballot races which in turn could have strengthened the Democrats hand in the 1946_mid terms.
Dewey could have even been defeated for re-election as Governor of New York in 1946 making him a much less likely nominee in 1948.

 

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

He had no actual evidence. In fact there was strong counter-evidence. The Navy sent out a "war warning" on 27 November, and the commanders in Hawaii responded by putting the forces there on high alert. But after 10 days, nothing had happened, and personnel and equipment were becoming run down from constant activity. So "the brass" decided to stand down over the weekend...

And the Japanese achieved extremely tight operational security. The Striking Force maintained absolute radio silence on the voyage out. Japanese diplomats were not told anything about it, so it was never mentioned in any MAGIC intercept.

In the end, Dewey would have been profoundly embarrassed and discredited. It would almost certainly cost him the nomination in 1948, and maybe even the governorship of of New York in 1946.

 

[Amadeus]

He had no actual evidence. In fact there was strong counter-evidence. The Navy sent out a "war warning" on 27 November, and the commanders in Hawaii responded by putting the forces there on high alert. But after 10 days, nothing had happened, and personnel and equipment were becoming run down from constant activity. So "the brass" decided to stand down over the weekend...

And the Japanese achieved extremely tight operational security. The Striking Force maintained absolute radio silence on the voyage out. Japanese diplomats were not told anything about it, so it was never mentioned in any MAGIC intercept.

In the end, Dewey would have been profoundly embarrassed and discredited. It would almost certainly cost him the nomination in 1948, and maybe even the governorship of of New York in 1946.

He might get re-elected Governor in a Republican wave year (this was when the Upstate and Long Island regions of NY were more heavily Republican) but I can see Stassen winning the nomination in 1948 if Dewey's blunder causes him to be so badly bloodied politically. FDR might win by a popular vote margin similar to 1932, with Dewey carrying only the Plains states, Vermont, and Maine.

 

[Admiral Bloonbeard]

He gets ridiculed as an unpatriotic conspiracy monger. Seriously, this is "Bush did 9/11" level of insanity.

 

[gatordad699]

Would it even matter? US invaded the Philippines in October 1944. The only things left after that was Iwo Jima, Okinawa, and burning/nuking Japan to the ground. The US started cutting back war production late 1944 and into 1945. Japan was probably not surprised by the invasion of Iwo or Okinawa. The US could have broadcast their intended targets and Japan would not have been able to stop them.

Completely agree with others. This would have been political suicide against a President who had steered the country out of the depression and was close to winning a world war.

 

[1940LaSalle]

Well, close: the recession beginning in 1938 undid a lot of anti-depression measures. The real upswing in the economy came with the rise in defense spending. But you're exactly right in that giving credence to this allegation of prior knowledge would have ended Dewey's political career. Stassen or Taft would have gotten the 1948 GOP nomination, with either losing (albeit narrowly) to Truman, all else being equal. One potential butterfly: if Dewey's political career ended, it cold make Ike's nomination in 1952 tougher--or then again, Ike might have been the GOP candidate in '48, in which case Truman loses.

 

[Ambusher11]

BTW, I just took a look at a old TIME magazine issue that covered the revelation of Dewey's planned floating of the Pearl Harbor advance-knowledge conspiracy theory in the 1944 election, and interestingly TIME stated that the New York Herald Tribune (a Republican newspaper) was praising Dewey for putting country over party and claimed that peddling the conspiracy theory would have made him win the 1944 election, though it afterwards stated that the New York Post (which was a liberal newspaper at that time BTW) said that peddling the conspiracy theory would've exposed Dewey to denunciation by Marshall and King (whom Dewey were praising in his campaign and promising to retain in office if elected), and that the "dynamite bomb" would've done more damage to him than to FDR.

Would it even matter? US invaded the Philippines in October 1944. The only things left after that was Iwo Jima, Okinawa, and burning/nuking Japan to the ground. The US started cutting back war production late 1944 and into 1945. Japan was probably not surprised by the invasion of Iwo or Okinawa. The US could have broadcast their intended targets and Japan would not have been able to stop them.

According to this Washington Post article, Marshall while pleading to Dewey to not reveal that the Japanese codes were broken, in addition to stating that the victories at Coral Sea and Midway were due to the Japanese codes being broken, stated to Dewey that so many Japanese ships were being sunk due to the U.S. knowing the sailing dates and routes of their convoys and that the conduct of all operations in the Pacific were closely related in conception and timing to the information received through the intercepted codes.