WI: Could the Vandals have survived in Poland as a distinct nation?

[Mario]

The Vandals first settled southern/central Poland for a couple of centuries before moving into the Roman Empire during the Migration Period.

Obviously not all the Vandalic population moved out from the region and there was left a remnant population in the area which later merged with the West Slavic tribes who occupied the region by the 6th century. In fact it is assumed that the term 'Wends' used by the Germans for their West Slavic neighbours derived from the same root of 'Wandals' (who in their turn, acquired it from the 'Veneti', who inhabited the same area before them).

IOTL it seems that these remnants of Vandalic population in Poland merged with the West Slavs and adopted most of their culture, language and religion, probably because their own elites had migrated to the Roman Empire and they were not organized in any relevant polity that could have resisted assimilation,

But what could have happened if the Vandals in Poland had retained some form of political organization that could have not only resisted assimilation by the West Slavic tribes but have been able to subdue them to their own political and cultural sphere, becoming a structured Vandalic Kingdom which had consolidated in southern/central Poland? Something similar to what Saxons or Eastern Franks did it IOTL.

Possible consequences:

- Wendish settlement between the Oder and the Vistula would have been halted and rather submitted to the Vandalic Kingdom, probably preventing further Slavic migration to the area between the Elbe and the Oder, so the control of this area would have fallen to direct competition between Saxons, Vandals and later Franks.
- If the Vandalic Kingdom endures, then Ostsiedlung as such would have not happened in the same way and (East) Francia would have been probably contrived more westwards than IOTL (something that in domino effect could provoke greater conflicts with whatever alt-polities (East) Francia could have in the west as it could not expand into the other side).
- If it endures enough time, the Northern Crusades as such would be prevented, unless the Vandals carry on themselves. However there is the possibility of the Vandals falling to the influence of an alt-HRE and promoting the christianization of the Baltic area earlier than IOTL (probably the Vandals, once christened, would be easier to be under an alt-HRE influence that Poles could be as they were ethnically closer to the Germanic HRE elites).

 

[Arkenfolm]

Obviously not all the Vandalic population moved out from the region and there was left a remnant population in the area which later merged with the West Slavic tribes who occupied the region by the 6th century. In fact it is assumed that the term 'Wends' used by the Germans for their West Slavic neighbours derived from the same root of 'Wandals' (who in their turn, acquired it from the 'Veneti', who inhabited the same area before them).

That doesn't necessarily require the Vandals having any presence in East Germany/Poland, that could be a linguistic formation from earlier times before the Vandal migration.

What exactly do archaeologists say about the size of the remnant population? From my knowledge, there's pretty clear cultural replacement and the contemporary writers state how empty that part of Northern Europe was in that era. It's perfectly plausible an agricultural population can simply desert their homeland and leave it empty (for instance in the Americas the Empty Quarter, including formerly important Mississippian cultures or Mesa Verde among the Puebloans) for environmental, political, or economic reasons. I genuinely don't know BTW, I'm just asking a question.

- Wendish settlement between the Oder and the Vistula would have been halted and rather submitted to the Vandalic Kingdom, probably preventing further Slavic migration to the area between the Elbe and the Oder, so the control of this area would have fallen to direct competition between Saxons, Vandals and later Franks.

Not necessarily, it still would've been pretty empty giving the Slavs a niche to exploit. It's not much different than the Balkans in that case where the Slavs formed their own states in the Roman/Byzantine frontier. The East Germanic peoples often were part of multiethnic confederations (i.e. the Huns) so allying with Slavic chieftains wouldn't be unusual for a Vandal king.

 

[Mario]

What exactly do archaeologists say about the size of the remnant population? From my knowledge, there's pretty clear cultural replacement and the contemporary writers state how empty that part of Northern Europe was in that era. It's perfectly plausible an agricultural population can simply desert their homeland and leave it empty (for instance in the Americas the Empty Quarter, including formerly important Mississippian cultures or Mesa Verde among the Puebloans) for environmental, political, or economic reasons. I genuinely don't know BTW, I'm just asking a question.

It is a good question, but it seems there is little evidence available about what happened in that region after the main bulk of Vandals departed and the arrival of the West Slavic tribes (and we are talking about two centuries of 'emptiness'). It seems there was no complete depopulation, just probably scattered agricultural settlement.

The fact that the 'Wends' inherited their name from the Vandals mean that there was at least some population continuity in the area, unlike it happened in other sparsely populated areas like Pannonia.

 

[Arkenfolm]

It is a good question, but it seems there is little evidence available about what happened in that region after the main bulk of Vandals departed and the arrival of the West Slavic tribes (and we are talking about two centuries of 'emptiness'). It seems there was no complete depopulation, just probably scattered agricultural settlement.

In which case it's a matter of numbers that means the Slavs easily assimilate whatever tiny population remains. So it becomes a matter of preventing this through some mechanism. I'm not entirely sure why the Migration Period involved such largescale depopulation, but it appears it was both climate and economic--why farm in some miserable cold forest when you could take over some Roman farm in Gaul, Hispania, or Africa? I think you'd need an ideology encouraging sticking around in the area. It isn't implausible for that to arise, it would just need to be convincing and probably rather reactionary against the trends of the era like adopting Christianity and elements of Roman culture. In that case, they'd probably blend in well with the Slavic tribal confederations.

I think they'd need to move into the highlands around the current Polish-Slovak border to have any hope of survival, since they'd be so submerged in Proto-Slavic culture and adopt elements of it like the system of farming the Slavs used. In which case they make an odd local ethnic group, one that at worst might assimilate with the Ostsiedlung and produce an equally odd group of local Germans.

The fact that the 'Wends' inherited their name from the Vandals mean that there was at least some population continuity in the area, unlike it happened in other sparsely populated areas like Pannonia.

I've seen plenty of evidence evidence that "Vandal" and "Wend" aren't related, or at least not anymore than another common origin of the name Vandal (from the legendary figure Aurvandil). It also appears the term "Wend" dates to Proto-Germanic and is cognate with Finnish "Venäjä"/similar words (all meaning "Russian") so the term would have developed in a much earlier era and stuck around to refer to a different group of people (which is rather common globally).

 

[Mario]

I've seen plenty of evidence evidence that "Vandal" and "Wend" aren't related, or at least not anymore than another common origin of the name Vandal (from the legendary figure Aurvandil). It also appears the term "Wend" dates to Proto-Germanic and is cognate with Finnish "Venäjä"/similar words (all meaning "Russian") so the term would have developed in a much earlier era and stuck around to refer to a different group of people (which is rather common globally).

It is somehow a 'circular' etymological phenomenon.

The root 'wend-' was originally applied by early Germanic peoples to the Veneti or Venedi, who were Indo-European people with no clear affiliation (some scholars think they are related to early Slavs, but others disagree) who lived in present day Poland before the East Germanic tribes moved from Scandinavia to the continent.

It seems the Vandals acquired their name when they settled in former Veneti lands. And later, the Slavic people who moved in also inherited this denomination. Maybe it was a simple denomination for people who lived east of the Oder river, regardless proper ethnicity. Those 'Aurvandil' hypotheses about the origin of the name for the Vandals have not much credit today.

 

[longtimelurker]

There's Toy TL that I've been working on with a more successful Arminius where this essentially happens - even in the 2000s, there is a state in OTL Galicia named for them.