WI: Coolidge ran for reelection in 1928
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ManintheField
Banned
As far as I know, he didn't run because of his son's death.
What happens depends on a few things I'm unaware of: He was a Republican and, at this point, the primary thing differentiating the two parties was their stance on the tariff issue, so would he be in favor of something similar to Smoot-Hawley? I'm unfamiliar with his stances on monetary policy, so I don't know how the Great Contraction would unfold, if Coolidge does indeed spark a trade war similar to that which Hoover started IOTL. Does anyone here know more?
Really, there are a lot of unanswered questions when it comes to a Coolidge 2.5 term. Without answering these and other important questions, knowing what would happen is essentially uneducated guesswork.
What happens depends on a few things I'm unaware of: He was a Republican and, at this point, the primary thing differentiating the two parties was their stance on the tariff issue, so would he be in favor of something similar to Smoot-Hawley? I'm unfamiliar with his stances on monetary policy, so I don't know how the Great Contraction would unfold, if Coolidge does indeed spark a trade war similar to that which Hoover started IOTL. Does anyone here know more?
Really, there are a lot of unanswered questions when it comes to a Coolidge 2.5 term. Without answering these and other important questions, knowing what would happen is essentially uneducated guesswork.
Coolidge had a dim view of the Federal governments intervention in anything. When Congress voted relief money for the 1927 Mississippi River flood Coolidge handed the cash over to the Red Cross (Hoover was contracted by the Red Cross to run the disaster relief program thus funded.)
It has been suggest by more than a few people Coolidge would not have supported efforts & helped to broker rescues of major failing banks. Hoover became involved in that as president
It has been suggest by more than a few people Coolidge would not have supported efforts & helped to broker rescues of major failing banks. Hoover became involved in that as president
The historical image of Warren Harding goes up tremendously, as all the adulation American conservatives shower on Coolidge in OTL can't go to him anymore as he re-enacts Nero and a burning Rome. OTL Harding does get some praise, but most of it goes to Coolidge.
Nothing changes for FDR in 1932 as long as butterflies don't help the Zangara. I wonder if Republicans finally turn to Hoover to oppose him, though Hoover will inevitably be dragged down.
Nothing changes for FDR in 1932 as long as butterflies don't help the Zangara. I wonder if Republicans finally turn to Hoover to oppose him, though Hoover will inevitably be dragged down.
Or perhaps they would idolize Hoover? Since he's not President, he could have done work for the poor of America.
And I can see Hoover making the election more like 1940 instead of OTL 1932.
It depends on your POD. However, let's assume that Calvin, Jr. dies like IOTL.
Coolidge was enormously popular, despite being a man in spite of his time. He would have been practically renominated without so much a struggle. Some historians differ as to Coolidge's reasoning behind declining another term. Some have suggested that he secretly wanted the nomination in 1928, but wanted to be drafted (not entirely implausible, as there was a sizable Draft Coolidge movement). Standing aside allowed for another popular politician - Secretary of State Herbert Hoover - to win the Republican nod.
Let's say a Draft Coolidge movement gains more momentum, and succeeds. However, many within the Republican Party urge the president to nominate Herbert Hoover for his running mate. Coolidge handily walks over Smith in the general, with the exception of winning Massachusetts ITTL. The Crash of 1929 happens (with the help of a good butterfly net, around October). Coolidge, effected by the great burden the office has become, dies in office (he died in 1933, OTL). Hoover succeeds Coolidge, and begins a program similar to his actions OTL. This time, he is way more popular, the people giving him greater deference. His platform of moderate intervention is accepted by most people, and Hoover wins a term in his own right in 1932.
I'm too lazy to think of other implications, global in particular.
Coolidge was enormously popular, despite being a man in spite of his time. He would have been practically renominated without so much a struggle. Some historians differ as to Coolidge's reasoning behind declining another term. Some have suggested that he secretly wanted the nomination in 1928, but wanted to be drafted (not entirely implausible, as there was a sizable Draft Coolidge movement). Standing aside allowed for another popular politician - Secretary of State Herbert Hoover - to win the Republican nod.
Let's say a Draft Coolidge movement gains more momentum, and succeeds. However, many within the Republican Party urge the president to nominate Herbert Hoover for his running mate. Coolidge handily walks over Smith in the general, with the exception of winning Massachusetts ITTL. The Crash of 1929 happens (with the help of a good butterfly net, around October). Coolidge, effected by the great burden the office has become, dies in office (he died in 1933, OTL). Hoover succeeds Coolidge, and begins a program similar to his actions OTL. This time, he is way more popular, the people giving him greater deference. His platform of moderate intervention is accepted by most people, and Hoover wins a term in his own right in 1932.
I'm too lazy to think of other implications, global in particular.
No way a Republican wins in 1932, even if he wasn't the president in 1929. Especially if Coolidge's ultra-laissez faire policies end up with a worse Depression than OTL.
If Hoover is never president, he is ultimately a footnote in history, much like William Whiting and Joshua Alexander (his predecessor and successor to the post of Commerce Secretary). Sure, he was important in quite a few areas, but popular memory rarely remembers non-Presidents (and even many presidents are barely remembered). He won't be cited by conservatives, liberals, or anyone else. At most, he will be the topic of an occasional AH thread.
If Hoover is never president, he is ultimately a footnote in history, much like William Whiting and Joshua Alexander (his predecessor and successor to the post of Commerce Secretary). Sure, he was important in quite a few areas, but popular memory rarely remembers non-Presidents (and even many presidents are barely remembered). He won't be cited by conservatives, liberals, or anyone else. At most, he will be the topic of an occasional AH thread.
Nazi Space Spy
Banned
I think people are letting personal bias on economic issues cloud their judgments. I think America would have been better off economically, others disagree. My arguments that FDR lengthened the depression are just as valid as the claim that Coolidge would have fiddled while Rome burned. But as AH is just speculation, we will never know for sure.
What we do know, be it for better or for worse, the Republicans were at least going to lose in 1932 for the short term. This gives Hoover a fair shot of leading the more moderate/progressive Republicans to victory in 1940 if FDR decides against a third term.
What we do know, be it for better or for worse, the Republicans were at least going to lose in 1932 for the short term. This gives Hoover a fair shot of leading the more moderate/progressive Republicans to victory in 1940 if FDR decides against a third term.
So if Hoover wins in 1940, does this change World War 2 in anyway? Will he push for war? Or will the war just goes as it does in OTL?
d32123
Banned
Just because you have a different opinion doesn't necessarily make your opinion equally valid.
Yep. The Depression isn't as bad because Coolidge vetoes Taft-Hartley. But he will be seen even more do-nothing than Hoover, so paradoxically the Republicans might even do worse than OTL (I don't think that, but it's possible).
ManintheField
Banned
From what I know of Coolidge and period Republicanism, I don't think he would have. The tariff issue was one of very few issues that actually separated the Republicans and the Democrats as parties: Both parties have progressive and conservative wings, both parties had groups under their umbrella that supported any number of different policies, but coming out as pro-tariff as a Democrat would be essentially equivalent to quitting the party. Same thing vice versa as a Republican.
As far as I know, Coolidge would not have vetoed the Tariff. Global trade would still have collapsed, banks holding assets based on export oriented production would still start blowing up by their hundreds, and it all would have ultimately come down to how the Federal Reserve behaved in the face of it. That's why I'm curious about Coolidge's stances on monetary policy. If a strong expansionary policy gets put in place early enough, we might remember the Depression as a repeat of 1921 ITTL. If not, it's not going to be any better than IOTL.
Paul V McNutt
Banned
Coolidge gets the blame for the depression. tThere are Cooldgevilles. I have always liked this POD. I like Cooldge rather than Hoover having that reputation.
I was about to say there would be no Reconstruction Finance Corparation, but then U realized that the RFC was founded in 1932. wWould Cooldge live that long. oOTL he died in 1933. mMaybe his Vice President would be more progressive and accept Secretary of Commerce Hoover's suggestion. RRoosevelt is probably the Democrat who wins in 1932. sSo we get the same lineup of Presidents 1933 to the present.
I was about to say there would be no Reconstruction Finance Corparation, but then U realized that the RFC was founded in 1932. wWould Cooldge live that long. oOTL he died in 1933. mMaybe his Vice President would be more progressive and accept Secretary of Commerce Hoover's suggestion. RRoosevelt is probably the Democrat who wins in 1932. sSo we get the same lineup of Presidents 1933 to the present.
ManintheField
Banned
Is no one going to take this seriously?
Why does everyone insist on treating the Depression like this supernatural, fixed event that MUST happen on schedule in exactly the way it happened IOTL?
This board has such deep analytical skills when it comes to alternate history, why aren't they being applied here?
Why does everyone insist on treating the Depression like this supernatural, fixed event that MUST happen on schedule in exactly the way it happened IOTL?
This board has such deep analytical skills when it comes to alternate history, why aren't they being applied here?
Japhy
Banned
Because the sheer wave of causes for the Depression aren't going away just because Coolidge takes office?
Yes the crash might be on a different day, it might even drag on a few more months but a depression is going to happen. The question is how does Coolidge respond to it, because thats going to dictate the sheer level of a disaster that it would be.
Since you're insisting that he'd approve of a tariff, then we're in a position where yes the Global economy is going to shut down, so it is going to turn into the GREAT Depression.
If you want to avoid the whole thing you need a real POD for it, not bringing in a caricature of a decent man who in fact lacked some sort of Free Market Superpowers. Last chance to avoid the disaster is in 1920, by 1928 its far, far too late.