WI: Constantine X Doukas dies in 1061

[Tanaka did nothing wrong]

Based on a previous post of mine.

The ousting of Isaakios I Komnenos and the subsequent ascension of Constantine Doukas on the throne as Constantine X wasn't an uncontroversial development. Members of the aristocracy and officials seem to have been uncertain about his ability to rule - the marginalisation of the former emperor must have incensed the Komnenos family and groups allied to it. This disaffection eventually led to a plot being hatched aimed at eliminating the new emperor. The plan seems to have been this: the emperor and his family were to head to the monsatery of St. George at Mangana to spend Holy Saturday and Easter day there. After staged disturbances broke out, the emperor was expected to get worried. Since he wouldn't be able to move to the Great Palace through the city, due to the mob, he would have to board the imperial yacht. The crew of the ship, already drawn in the conspiracy, were to take the ship away from the shore and then drown the emperor, while troops whose loyalty the conspirators had secured, would take over the city, neutralise the opposition and proclaim the person chosen by the plotters emperor. However, due to a failure in coordination, the imperial vessel seems to have failed to arrive in time, leading a panicked Constantine to board the ship of a noble that was there and refusing to board his ship when it finally arrived in order to save time, which resulted in the plot unravelling.

So, my question is: what would happen if the plot succeeded and Constantine X died that day?

About the emperor the conspirators planned to place on the throne, there is no mention of his name; perhaps this was on purpose, with the plotters planning to decide on the person to claim the imperial purple after they had prevailed in Constantinople. A likely candidate is Ioannes Komnenos, younger brother of Isaakios, Domestic of the Schools of the West (he had the right age and military experience which the conspirators allegedly thought Constantine was lacking and he isn't mentioned in sources covering the OTL reign of Constantine X, which could imply imperial disfavour - and being the person a group of conspirators wanted to place on the throne would be good enough reason for that).

However, it's also possible that the remaining members of the Doukas family manage to rally and defeat the conspirators. In this case, a purge might follow, to eliminate real or perceived rivals. Michael would most likely be proclaimed emperor (Michael VII) but, being underage, he would find himself under a regency where Eudokia Makrembolitissa and caesar Ioannes Doukas would be the dominant figures, at least in the beginning. What could be the outcome in this case?

 

[Evil Crusader]

The plot fails but tighter repression, history unfolds much as OTL, maybe slightly better because less chances of treason around alt-Manzikert (Seljuk invasion still happens).
The plot succeeds, it's hard to tell. They have the time to undo the worst, but it's arguable whether that would be enough, and whether another treason could seal a similar turn of events to OTL.

 

[Tanaka did nothing wrong]

The plot fails but tighter repression, history unfolds much as OTL, maybe slightly better because less chances of treason around alt-Manzikert (Seljuk invasion still happens).
The plot succeeds, it's hard to tell. They have the time to undo the worst, but it's arguable whether that would be enough, and whether another treason could seal a similar turn of events to OTL.

By failure you mean that the Doukas family manages to remain in power and Michael VII becomes emperor in 1061?

 

[Evil Crusader]

By failure you mean that the Doukas family manages to remain in power and Michael VII becomes emperor in 1061?

Yes.

 

[Tanaka did nothing wrong]

Yes.

Hmm, ok. I was wondering how the regency would play out. ITTL, Eudokia hasn't been declared empress regnant and she is in a weaker position. However she could perhaps discredit her former brother - in - law by having him sent him to command troops against imperial enemies and hopefully discredit him and perhaps trying to create alliances with other influential families that would come to resent the regime of the Doukai and the measures Ioannes Doukas and his sons would probably employ to maintain control. Plus Michael, if the shock of his father's death made him more suspicious but also active to preserve his interests, could start turning on his potentially overbearing uncle and cousins.

 

[CHKeeley]

I do think it’ll be very difficult for any faction to deal effectively with the problem of the Seljuk incursions. Manzikert was obviously preventable, but then again Manzikert was only the dramatic culmination of about a decade of mounting raids and incursions on the eastern frontier. I have always wondered if a withdrawal to the Taurus mountains in some way was possible. Shortening the frontier and increasing the ability to concentrate military resources at given points as they did against Arab expansion could show better results. Then again, the system was prone to completely breaking down over such controversial decisions. An Emperor would have to be extremely established and extremely popular to be able to just abandon the Ducates of Antioch, Mesopotamia, and Vaspurakhan in their entirety. Then again, it’s only some degrees more extreme than what Constantine X did with the disbanding of crucial military units in these districts. A more plausible version of this would probably be not the wholesale abandonment of these areas in one moment, but rather a slow withdrawal to the Taurus based on localized defeats beyond that frontier. Instead of a conscious decision to abandon the territories, it could be that the military faction stems the tide of the Seljuk advance enough but continue to lose territories east of the Taurus. Not sure though. And who knows if the Taurus is even defensible at this point?

 

[Tanaka did nothing wrong]

I do think it’ll be very difficult for any faction to deal effectively with the problem of the Seljuk incursions. Manzikert was obviously preventable, but then again Manzikert was only the dramatic culmination of about a decade of mounting raids and incursions on the eastern frontier. I have always wondered if a withdrawal to the Taurus mountains in some way was possible. Shortening the frontier and increasing the ability to concentrate military resources at given points as they did against Arab expansion could show better results. Then again, the system was prone to completely breaking down over such controversial decisions. An Emperor would have to be extremely established and extremely popular to be able to just abandon the Ducates of Antioch, Mesopotamia, and Vaspurakhan in their entirety. Then again, it’s only some degrees more extreme than what Constantine X did with the disbanding of crucial military units in these districts. A more plausible version of this would probably be not the wholesale abandonment of these areas in one moment, but rather a slow withdrawal to the Taurus based on localized defeats beyond that frontier. Instead of a conscious decision to abandon the territories, it could be that the military faction stems the tide of the Seljuk advance enough but continue to lose territories east of the Taurus. Not sure though. And who knows if the Taurus is even defensible at this point?

Well, problem is, with that step, the imperial government would lose the buffer it could hope to use in order to keep the wealthier provinces in central and western Asia Minor more secure. Plus they would lose the potential recruitment grounds for mercenaries in the area and influence in the Caucasus in general, which would be needed in this case. Plus disbanding the units but keeping the regions and basing your defence on the principle of a professional mercenary army being controlled by Constantinople is radically different than abandoning most of the gains made in the 10th and 11th centuries, while abandoning those regions would most likely make things easier for the Turkmen. Lastly, it would be irreconcilable with the image of the empire as the preeminent power in the area. In general, it would be a controversial idea that would most likely cause more harm than good to the empire.

 

[CHKeeley]

Well, problem is, with that step, the imperial government would lose the buffer it could hope to use in order to keep the wealthier provinces in central and western Asia Minor more secure. Plus they would lose the potential recruitment grounds for mercenaries in the area and influence in the Caucasus in general, which would be needed in this case. Plus disbanding the units but keeping the regions and basing your defence on the principle of a professional mercenary army being controlled by Constantinople is radically different than abandoning most of the gains made in the 10th and 11th centuries, while abandoning those regions would most likely make things easier for the Turkmen. Lastly, it would be irreconcilable with the image of the empire as the preeminent power in the area. In general, it would be a controversial idea that would most likely cause more harm than good to the empire.

Sure, I totally agree. That’s why I suggested that it may be more plausible to have a steady decline in ability to control many of these eastern regions not through a large battle and a crippling civil war but a slow ebb and flow that sees Byzantine power retreat. Ultimately, without butterflying the Seljuks, I think the Empire is going to have a hell of a time trying to hold places like Armenia and coastal Syria - they’re just too close to Seljuk power and too far from Constantinople to project power effectively against a powerful rival. These frontiers were effectively controlled and expanded only when the House of Islam was fractured among itself. As soon as it was unified, they became untenable. Meanwhile, the Taurus frontier, while not a perfect shield, managed to stand the barrage from the east and ultimately serve as an important no man’s land between the powers. From a hindsight-macro perspective, it seems preferable and so I’m trying to think of a way that could be achieved which isn’t completely ahistorical. But you’re right, abandoning them outright would likely be considered insane without more prompting.