WI: Confederates win, but collapse?

[Mikestone8]

Slave revolts were few and far between, but fairly bloody when they happened. Of course, like the medieval lords that they were, the Slavocrats' responses to revolts was always far bloodier.

As to the Civil War and the slaves that were kept down, well, for the most part, they weren't. If the Union Army got to within 100 miles of the slaves, they were gone. And CSA law insured exemptions from military service for slavers and their overseers, depending on their number of slaves. So to some degree, in the case of individual plantations, and the degree over which they controlled communications, the slaves just didn't know what was going on. A good example of this is the African-American holiday of "Juneteenth". Celebrated in Texas, because the Whites refused to even TELL their slaves that they were free until when on June 14th 1865, with the arrival of the Union Army in East Texas, it was left to the Yankees themselves to tell the EX-slaves that they had actually been free for two full months!

To a certain degree, the slavers, or in some cases, their spouses, had been forced to "come to an understanding" with their slaves if they didn't want to see mass runoffs. As in, no whips, no use of chattel, no selling of slaves. But anyone who had practiced mutilation could expect to see their slaves gone whatever the promises, and whatever the distances to the nearest Union soldier.

No problem with any of this - only with the idea some on this thread seem to have, ie that a victorious CSA would be brought down any time soon by a "massive slave revolt". I can't see the slightest reason for believing any such thing.

 

[Mikestone8]

Not rebellions so much as revolts designed to facilitate mass population migrations. I would imagine that the CSA would soon find itself be depopulated of its slaves all along the Union border, and for a good hundred miles to the interior.

Not hugely different from what was happening anyway. There had long been a steady flow of slaves from the Upper South and Border States into the Lower South, simply because slave prices were higher there and they could be sold at a profit. The situation you describe would simply accelerate this process. The CS might also get slaves from the Union Border Sates, as these were hastily sold south in anticipation of the abolition of slavery in the US

Incidentally, when will the US abolish slavery TTL? OTL the 13th Amendment scraped through the HoR by a bare 119-56, so that just three defections would have blocked it. And that was in a situation where the Republicans had just won a landslide victory, so that everyone knew the next Congress would pass it anyway. But if the South has won, presumably Lincoln will not be re-elected, and the next HoR will be most likely Democratic. In that atmosphere could the 13A get through, even in the lame-duck session? Seems to me it could be 1867 or even later before it could be passed.

That would only get worse as time went on and the Underground Railroad grew and grew.

How many did the UR rescue from the Lower South? My understanding was that the vast majority of successful escapes were from Upper South and Border States close to the North. But if large parts of these are becoming lily-white due to slaves escaping or (more likely) being sold south, there soon may not be many in easy reach.