WI: Communist Mexico

Armot

How would USA react to a successful Communist coup in Mexico in the 60's? Another embargo? What about counter-coup attempts? Other possible political issues?

What will happen with the Mexican economy in the coming decades?

If the Mexican communist government falls around 1990 followed by massive privatizations, how will the Mexican immigration to the USA develop from 1990 onwards?
 
KuboCaskett

KuboCaskett

Invasion more likely given the close proximity to US borders; though to get Mexico to go communist you might have to have the PRI screw up by the 60's.
 

El Speculador

It may be difficult to pass the Immigration Act of 1965, unless it takes place after it passes, due to (likely legitimate) fear of letting in communists, especially spies. Or it makes it easier due to the desire to rescue people from communism. I am not really sure which. It would be "interesting" to see the sudden inflow with the instability in Mexico that would likely follow a coup. I know they let in people from Cuba, but Castro opened up the prisons to get back at the USA, so there may be no appetite for a much bigger occurrence of a similar thing. Unless the new government wants to be friendly, but then again the USA wont be feeling the same way. If the Russians put missiles in Mexico, things could get dicey. the USA will doubtless try and overthrow the new communist government, and the ability to do so is based off of Russian support as well as popular support. In short, I am not sure what would happen, but there are some possibilities. O, and the Domino effect will likely be considered fully accurate, especially considering that Mexico is way bigger than Cuba, so that has implications for other threaders of the cold war. Like Vietnam.
 

Blackfox5

Hard to see how any kind of Communist coup could happen in Mexico given the PRI's party dictatorship there. The PRI's bench was deep and had influence all over the country in all institutions. The Mexican Communist Party was moribund at the time and had little influence. The early 1960s was probably one of the best times in Mexico. The late sixties and seventies saw the rise of far left militant groups, but they had no ability to take power. If any Communists somehow enacted a "coup", the PRI would probably defeat it in a matter of hours by themselves. In any case, the Mexican government could rely on complete US support to defeat the Communists although I don't think there'd be any invasion unless the Mexican government invited them in.

In order to obtain a scenario where Mexico could conceivably go Communistin the 1960s, we probably need the previous several decades in Mexico to be vastly different.
 

Dunning Kruger

The US would never let a communist Mexico exist, particularly post Cuban Missile Crisis. San Diego, with its naval base is literally on the border while Los Angeles and all of its facilities plus Vandenberg and Edwards are fairly close. It's too close too the ports in Texas and New Orleans, which are major ports for military transportation. It threatens SLOC with the Panama Canal and the Gulf of Mexico overall. The only thing worse would be Canada going communist.
 

riggerrob

Unlikely that a Mexican communist revolution would get very far considering how much exerperience the Mexican political elite (capitalist puppets like Porferio Dias) had in spreading proletarian revolutions.
Also consider that Mexico City had the busiest CIA station in all of Latin-America because of all the spies, smugglers, assassins, etc. passing through. The CIA even planted listening devices in he Soviet Ambassador's library! The SA preferred chatting with visiting communist revolutionaries in his library because he feared that his office was bugged!
Hah!
Hah!
 

Stalingrad

It's impossible.
The PRI was (and still is) the main political force in the country, also, Manuel Ávila Camacho made some work before he left office to prevent far-wing parties to get close to power.
Miguel Alemán also left the roots for the future CIA presence in Mexico, he aligned towards United States during his presidency (1946-1952) this was caused thanks to his focus on country's industrialization, he had economic help from United States to further develop the nation.

During the sixties, well, I'm not very good with that decade (at least with my country's politics)
But as you saw in the previous post, the government was able to commit that massacre without huge problems.
Communism as an ideology would be very hard to be followed in Mexico during the previous century, while the rural population would be kinda "OK" with it, the majority of the country wouldn't.
 

octaviuz

Could Lazaro Cardenas or his predecessors in the post-revolutionary period have gone further in the direction of Marxism? They did some land reform and nationalization (e.g. oil industry).
 

Thothian

Banned
Armot said:
How would USA react to a successful Communist coup in Mexico in the 60's? Another embargo? What about counter-coup attempts? Other possible political issues?

What will happen with the Mexican economy in the coming decades?

If the Mexican communist government falls around 1990 followed by massive privatizations, how will the Mexican immigration to the USA develop from 1990 onwards?
Click to expand...

In the 60s? Right smack in the middle of the Cold War?

It would be seen as Moscow's attempt to gain a foothold in North America and threaten the US with Soviet troops on the Rio Grande.

So: Mexican navy sunk within the first 48 hrs, along with the entire Mexican air force shot down. USMC landing on Mexico's gulf coast, with army and national guard units rolling across the border.

Goals: Install a pro-US government in Mexico City, and spend years ( a decade or more) assisting the reconstituted Mexican army in hunting down communists and napalming their strongholds.
 
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