WI Columbus never returned to Spain?

WI Columbus never returned to Spain?

How loud was that cry of “Done to Death!”?

Ok, here are the details of my question.


  • · Columbus first voyage never returns to Europe. What happens in Europe next?
  • · Spain had financed part of Chris’ voyage, but that seems now to have been a waste of money.
  • · Cabral still bumps into Brazil, so I expect that the Portuguese explorations would continue to a great extent s in OTL.
  • · The merchants of Bristol England had sent several expeditions out searching for Hy-Brazil beginning around 1480. It was an Island somewhere off the coast of Ireland and had been shown on maps in the early 1400s. Would John Cabot still have been sent on his voyages by those merchants?
  • · [FONT=&quot]João Vaz Corte-Real supposedly discovered [/FONT]Terra Nova do Bacalhau in 1470, possibly Newfoundland, although this claim does not appear in writing until the 1570s. Might Cabot and others have heard of this “discovery”?
  • · Jean Cousin supposedly discovered Brazil in 1488, sailing for France from Dieppe. One of his captains was Alonzo Pinzón, who was captain of the Pinta on Chris’ first voyage (Rumor has it that he knew the way). (Binot Paulmier, sieur de Gonneville sailed to Brazil in 1504 as a follow up to Cousin and claimed that French traders from Saint-Malo and Dieppe had been trading there for years.)
Any voyages that were resultant from Columbus discoveries would be butterflied…but how would Europe have been affected in the next several years? Looking for ideas that extend no later than say 1510.​
 
I can't think too much at this moment, but to add another point to your list, one of tbe reasons the Pinzón brothers were choosen to be Columbus captains, was also because they had took part in privateering operations against the portuguese in "the Guinea" back in the war if Castilian Succession. Obviously in your TL they would be feeding the fissh, but that was not an unusual occupation (I mean, privateering against thenportuhuese in their atlantic routes) for sailors from Huelva. In fact, that was one of the points negotiated in Alcaçobas, to en with these activities....

And that's another point, if Columbus doesn't come back you have not the Alexadrine bulls
nor Treaty of Tordesillas. What's the effect on portuguese exploratiins?
 
Colombus expedition

If the Columbian expedition not return only prevented, in the short term, the European contact at the State level. No contacts groups of fishermen and sailors on the North American shores (Basque) or South America (Portuguese). Regarding the Basque presence these links that might be useful:

http://www.euskomedia.org/aunamendi/53848/146051

http://www.euskomedia.org/aunamendi/9693/7144#1

Because the European problem that the idea of ​​Colon traveling westward solved; was still 'demanding' and solved once the idea became known, it was only a matter of time before another attempt and possibly French (the brother of Columbus, in October 1492 visited the French court) was made. The Castellanos would still be pressured by the Portuguese market exclusivity and not to forget the pressure group (religious-commercial) that supported the ideas of Colon, would still have influence on the Castilian court. .
 
How loud was that cry of “Done to Death!”?

"I felt a great disturbance in the board as if millions of voices suddenly cried out in terror and were suddenly silenced."
This scale, roughly.

Columbus first voyage never returns to Europe. What happens in Europe next?
It wouldn't be the first navigator to just lost himself on sea. Past the round of "told you so", Castille-Aragon resumes its African and Mediterranean policy.
Don't forget it was one of the main meditteranean power at this time, rather than atlantic; and that Ottoman Navy while powerful wasn't comparable to what it became in the XVIth.

You could see them being more focused on North Africa, maybe doing what Portuguese aimed to do, controlling the coast and points of African trade (gold, silver, salt,).

I don't think Italian Wars would be butterflied by this PoD, and Spanish kingdoms would have still to deal with that. While Spain and Habsburgs managed to finance a good part of it thanks to European (Castille, Netherlands) ressources rather than American gold itself, it's going to turn even more in a war of attrition they would have an harder time winning if Spain doesn't get its hands on America before the 40's.

Spain had financed part of Chris’ voyage, but that seems now to have been a waste of money.
Giving they had quite on them, and the quite limited loss (three ships aren't exactly bleeding to death) it's written on red ink. And that's about it.
What's going to be more of a drain is the rivality with Portugal on more classical roads around Africa AND still imposing itself on Meditteranean basin.

Cabral still bumps into Brazil, so I expect that the Portuguese explorations would continue to a great extent s in OTL.
I don't see why they wouldn't. Their goal was Indias. SPICE, GOLD. NAKED AND EXOTIC WOMEN...err...you got the point.

The merchants of Bristol England had sent several expeditions out searching for Hy-Brazil beginning around 1480. It was an Island somewhere off the coast of Ireland and had been shown on maps in the early 1400s. Would John Cabot still have been sent on his voyages by those merchants?
Imaginary islands were quite a carthographic trend, but reflected as well reality than, say Tropic line doesn't represent an actual line running along the globe.

Most important problem with Bristol expeditions is that they may have been the result of the confusion between Hy Brazil (an old myth) and Brasilwood that was a common name for several essences of precious wood. Basically, another search for Indias but based on an even more weird stuff than Colombus'.

I suspect that, would they find searching randomly, they would not pay much attention to it; critically when the land discovered would be less interesting themselves (agriculturally speaking, for huge-profit production as sugar; that was something that boosted Spanish interest very much).
Discoveries could happen, but I'm not sure they would be seen as as relevant than Colombus' IOTL.

João Vaz Corte-Real supposedly discovered Terra Nova do Bacalhau in 1470, possibly Newfoundland, although this claim does not appear in writing until the 1570s. Might Cabot and others have heard of this “discovery”?

It's possible, but I don't think they would have seen the connexion there, in the same way he could very well have heard of Atlantic fishermen going to cod fishing (not only Basques as people often say, but as well Galicians, Asturians, Gascons, etc.)

Early discoverers were a bit monomaniacs : if something didn't fit what they wanted to find, they often disregarded it.
 

Deleted member 67076

Colombia gets killed in the first few months. That man had no tact or diplomacy. After a while the Taino would tire of his enslavement attempts for the Factoria system and kill him.
 
Colombia gets killed in the first few months. That man had no tact or diplomacy. After a while the Taino would tire of his enslavement attempts for the Factoria system and kill him.

Pretty much.

Colombus not returning is not because he wants to fuck off and form his own empire, but because the expedition was destroyed for whatever reason - storm or he pisses off the Taino enough to kill him.

*As a side note, remember the Taino, though no where near enough to match a full on Spanish army in a straight up fight, were not tiny bands of hunter/gathers. They ranged from small to large chiefdom societies, with communities that had populations into the thousands, living in a tiered social structure that included craftsmen/women with their limited tech level. So it's going to take more than a couple of arquebus shots to keep them enslaved. Plus any survivors with salvaged European weaponry and tech skills would be able to find a welcome amongst the locals, and carve out a place within the various struggles between the Taino polities; but this wouldn't translate into them ruling them.


As for Spain, they would focus on the Med and Africa. The royal court didn't really expect Colombus to produce results or even return. So it would have been written off as the ocean was too big or something (they didn't seriously believe the world was flat). Basque fisherman wouldn't translate into another royal sponsored expedition, not for many years at least. The rulers and financiers of Europe wanted trade routes to Asia, not cod. One day wars would be fought over the abundant resources in the Maritimes and the Mainland, but unless someone again thought they might be able to find a trade route to Asian riches, this area would largely be ignored until later, similar to Siberia. If Europeans wanted to go there for just the sake settling people elsewhere, Vinland would have been a success.

Brazil, though there's always the chance Portugal might have known about it before, they more than likely were just seeing if anything was out there on their side of the Tordesillas Line. Otherwise why would they suddenly deviate from a well established route along Africa? So unless they knew about land being there before, it's unlikely they'd just go looking randomly after knowing Colombus disappeared, and especially once Spain becomes a more aggressive rival in keeping their African trade route.

Overall my guess would be a more slower and gradual exploration originating from the Basque fisherman ports. Maybe once they figure out North America isn't an island, that they might be in Asia, this would would lead to further explorations. And if Brazil was known prior to 1500, than it would probably play out similarly to the gradual exploration scenario in the Maritimes. Either way you delay major colonial efforts by decades, maybe even up to a century or more. It all depends on when they discover the Pacific and the indigenous "empires of gold" to cause major interest in exploitation.
 
This scale, roughly.


It wouldn't be the first navigator to just lost himself on sea. Past the round of "told you so", Castille-Aragon resumes its African and Mediterranean policy.
Don't forget it was one of the main meditteranean power at this time, rather than atlantic; and that Ottoman Navy while powerful wasn't comparable to what it became in the XVIth.

You could see them being more focused on North Africa, maybe doing what Portuguese aimed to do, controlling the coast and points of African trade (gold, silver, salt,).

I don't think Italian Wars would be butterflied by this PoD, and Spanish kingdoms would have still to deal with that. While Spain and Habsburgs managed to finance a good part of it thanks to European (Castille, Netherlands) ressources rather than American gold itself, it's going to turn even more in a war of attrition they would have an harder time winning if Spain doesn't get its hands on America before the 40's.


Giving they had quite on them, and the quite limited loss (three ships aren't exactly bleeding to death) it's written on red ink. And that's about it.
What's going to be more of a drain is the rivality with Portugal on more classical roads around Africa AND still imposing itself on Meditteranean basin.


I don't see why they wouldn't. Their goal was Indias. SPICE, GOLD. NAKED AND EXOTIC WOMEN...err...you got the point.


Imaginary islands were quite a carthographic trend, but reflected as well reality than, say Tropic line doesn't represent an actual line running along the globe.

Most important problem with Bristol expeditions is that they may have been the result of the confusion between Hy Brazil (an old myth) and Brasilwood that was a common name for several essences of precious wood. Basically, another search for Indias but based on an even more weird stuff than Colombus'.

I suspect that, would they find searching randomly, they would not pay much attention to it; critically when the land discovered would be less interesting themselves (agriculturally speaking, for huge-profit production as sugar; that was something that boosted Spanish interest very much).
Discoveries could happen, but I'm not sure they would be seen as as relevant than Colombus' IOTL.


It's possible, but I don't think they would have seen the connexion there, in the same way he could very well have heard of Atlantic fishermen going to cod fishing (not only Basques as people often say, but as well Galicians, Asturians, Gascons, etc.)

Early discoverers were a bit monomaniacs : if something didn't fit what they wanted to find, they often disregarded it.

Spain and Portugal engaged in a race around the Cape of Good Hope???
Fishermen discover Newfoundland and Nova Scotia...but no one really cares about it other than a place to get fresh water for the voyage home???

Does Spain show any great interest in Cabral's discovery and do they engage in counter exploration of SA in response?

You have mentioned a number of things I need to do some research on...Italian wars, ottomans in the Med...etc.

Appreciate the suggestions and thoughts.
 
Pretty much.

As for Spain, they would focus on the Med and Africa. The royal court didn't really expect Colombus to produce results or even return. So it would have been written off as the ocean was too big or something (they didn't seriously believe the world was flat). Basque fisherman wouldn't translate into another royal sponsored expedition, not for many years at least. The rulers and financiers of Europe wanted trade routes to Asia, not cod. One day wars would be fought over the abundant resources in the Maritimes and the Mainland, but unless someone again thought they might be able to find a trade route to Asian riches, this area would largely be ignored until later, similar to Siberia. If Europeans wanted to go there for just the sake settling people elsewhere, Vinland would have been a success.

The driving force in all this exploration certainly was money, not knowledge or curiosity...the point was to get a leg up on the competition. so would the fishermen's knowledge of the Maritimes carry much weight in the courts of Europe at all or would that just be an interesting bit to look into after monopolizing the spice trade by discovering a more advantageous rout to the Indies? (probably around or through Africa).

Brazil, though there's always the chance Portugal might have known about it before, they more than likely were just seeing if anything was out there on their side of the Tordesillas Line. Otherwise why would they suddenly deviate from a well established route along Africa? So unless they knew about land being there before, it's unlikely they'd just go looking randomly after knowing Colombus disappeared, and especially once Spain becomes a more aggressive rival in keeping their African trade route.

Whether they knew or not (and I think the discovery was accidental) would the Portuguese have continued their explorations of Brazil as they did if Columbus' discoveries had not occurred or been known about? They quickly learned that they had discovered a vast landmass.

Overall my guess would be a more slower and gradual exploration originating from the Basque fisherman ports. Maybe once they figure out North America isn't an island, that they might be in Asia, this would would lead to further explorations. And if Brazil was known prior to 1500, than it would probably play out similarly to the gradual exploration scenario in the Maritimes. Either way you delay major colonial efforts by decades, maybe even up to a century or more. It all depends on when they discover the Pacific and the indigenous "empires of gold" to cause major interest in exploitation.

Which nation(s) would lead the eventual exploration of the Maritimes if there was a growing inkling that they were a part of Asia?
 
The Basque influence

The Basque influence was derived not only from its fishermen and its contacts with the discoverers; but unlike other Cantabrians and Galician, they were an indispensable part of the Navy War Castilian as part of majority of the crews: (http://www.euskomedia.org/aunamendi/4136/122887)

(Http://www.euskomedia.org/aunamendi/100088/69872).
****************************
* But the Basques not only served the crown of Castile and it was not uncommon to see naval battles with Basques on both sides:
***** (Http://www.euskomedia.org/aunamendi/100088/69873).

* Not to mention the pirates and corsairs of Basque origin in the Atlantic and the Mediterranean: (http://www.euskomedia.org/aunamendi/34677/22210).

** By the way Basques and Gascons are different names of one people inhabiting both sides of the Pyrenees and which may be more or less assimilated to France or Spain (http://www.euskomedia.org/aunamendi/149610).
 
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The Basque influence was derived not only from its fishermen and its contacts with the discoverers; but unlike other Cantabrians and Galician, they were an indispensable part of the Navy War Castilian as part of majority of the crews: (http://www.euskomedia.org/aunamendi/4136/122887)

(Http://www.euskomedia.org/aunamendi/100088/69872).
****************************
* But the Basques not only served the crown of Castile and it was not uncommon to see naval battles with Basques on both sides:
***** (Http://www.euskomedia.org/aunamendi/100088/69873).

* Not to mention the pirates and corsairs of Basque origin in the Atlantic and the Mediterranean: (http://www.euskomedia.org/aunamendi/34677/22210).

** By the way Basques and Gascons are different names of one people inhabiting both sides of the Pyrenees and which may be more or less assimilated to France or Spain (http://www.euskomedia.org/aunamendi/149610).

Thanks for the references, some interesting leads and potentials.
 
For further reference, see:

see also
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AllActionMan

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Aley


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Failed Columbus - Effects on Europe?
Emperor-of-New-Zealand

Immediate Effects of Failed Columbus? (
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Chörnyj Orel

WI: Columbus falls off the map
Amedras

WI: Columbus Failed? (
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TMS2224

Columbus Delayed
Grimm Reaper

WI: Cabot, not Columbus
John Fredrick Parker

WI: Columbus trusts Erostathenses?
Workable Goblin

WI - 1492, Indians Discover Columbus Lost At Sea.
Forever_found

WI Columbus Failed? (
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OneUp

Columbus Never Returns
Codae

Christopher Columbus lost at sea
Niceguy

Columbus turns back
Peter Cowan

WI Hurricane maxima at time of Columbus
NapoleonXIV

The ships of Columbus mutiny! (
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Darkest

Columbus gets his geography right
Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy

WI Columbus Fails
Fearless Leader


Plus half a dozen threads of him sailing for England, some of him sailing for France, a couple him sailing for Portugal, a small handful of him sailing for random places - like Brittany and Genoa; several of him headed a different direction, or making a different landfall.
 
The driving force in all this exploration certainly was money, not knowledge or curiosity...the point was to get a leg up on the competition. so would the fishermen's knowledge of the Maritimes carry much weight in the courts of Europe at all or would that just be an interesting bit to look into after monopolizing the spice trade by discovering a more advantageous rout to the Indies? (probably around or through Africa).

It depends how much gets explored, and if anyone follows the coast and so forth. Over time though, as Europe exhausts its own fisheries and hides, people will travel to these "islands" more and more, and discover its a larger land mass. Though chances are, by the time they do happen across the Mississipians and Mesoamericans, it might play out more like it did with some of the Sub-Saharan African empires, where they trade more (though this isn't exactly all awesome either, as the Europeans will want to monopolize this trade at the expense of the Natives).

Whether they knew or not (and I think the discovery was accidental) would the Portuguese have continued their explorations of Brazil as they did if Columbus' discoveries had not occurred or been known about? They quickly learned that they had discovered a vast landmass.

Though Brazilwood would catch a good price, chances are without the Spanish invasions of the mainland, and exposing the knowledge of rich resources there, the motivation to develop Brazil would be highly neglected. Even if they figured out it was a larger landmass, their resources would go toward their Indian Ocean ventures.

Which nation(s) would lead the eventual exploration of the Maritimes if there was a growing inkling that they were a part of Asia?

More than likely those in Western Europe, but the butterflies of various conflicts, who sails over and under what circumstances really add too many variables for easy answers. You could even make a case for Morocco and the Ottomans getting in on the game.

Overall we can't give you definitive answer. It really depends on how the cause and effects go individual TLs. Also keep in mind butterflies will go both ways. The political situations of Native Americans will also shift based on delayed contact, how they're contacted, and what they were doing prior too.
 
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Spain and Portugal OTL

Since the Butterflies still not affect the rest of the world the relations between Spain and Portugal, on failure of Colon will follow determined by the Treaty of Alcovas (Tordesillas would not exist), the improvement of relations between the dynasties, through the marriage. And basically the Castilian respect to the Portuguese exclusive routes to the Indies, multiple official in royal ordinances even allowed to raise the Portuguese crown in Castilian ports, Real tax on profits made by the Castilian ships DURING THE WAR Castellana succession portuguesas.Claro on routes that influenced the attitude Catuvieran imprisoned in a convent to the defeated pretender to the throne Castilian and pledge not to support it or to its Castilian nobles rebel faction (Juana la Beltraneja, sister of Isabel of Castile). The African Mediterranean except for some strategic ports ('presidioss), lacked major interest for the crown. Chances are if everything remains the same to Otl Fernando de Aragon (husband of Elizabeth), inherited the throne and concentrate on the conquest of Navarre (homeland of the French dynasty), and recover the lands lost in Occitania in Aragon 1250, defeated by France. About Fernando and its way of life that could have been the model for Machiavelli's Principe and also had to serve as a great military Goinzalo of Cordoba (the great captain his nickname in OTL. Treaty of Alcaçovas : http://avalon.law.yale.edu/15th_century/sppo01.asp
 
well, the Europeans were an imaginative bunch, putting dragons and sea monsters on the edges of 'Terra Incognita' and the like. So, if Columbus never returned, obviously, the Europeans would imagine horrible things happening, and no one would ever dare go there again. And without the discovery of the New World, Europe will stagnate, and then be doomed when the mighty Aztec Fleet of Doom arrives on their doorstep.

Okay, maybe not.
 
If Columbus and others do not return, fewer and fewer attempts would be made to sail westward from Spain or Portugal. The next best path to the New World would be the Viking route to the north. Eventually, they would make it south from Newfoundland to Nova Scotia. Eventually they would find the Gulf Stream route back eastward. Eventually, they would explore southward and conclude they had found a rather large land mass. The trouble is, at the higher latitudes, what kind of bounty would there be to take home? Columbus found land in 1492 and Magellan set course around the world in 1521, so the skill to build ocean-worthy ships would be there. At some point in the sixteenth century, the New World will be identified. The Spanish Inquisition and the need to spread the faith might play an even greater role to promote exploration.
 
Here is my current take on explorations;


  • · Ferdinand and Isabella are satisfied that Columbus failed and probably was lost at sea. Having bigger fish to fry they lose interest in a westward route to the indies and move on to more important and pressing matters.
  • · The Treaty of Tordesillas is never drawn, so the Atlantic remains divided lattitudinally rather that longitudinally.
  • · Cabral discovers Brazil by accident on April 22, 1500 as in OTL. The discovery is well south of the Canaries and therefore within Portugal’s sphere of influence according to the 1479 [FONT=&quot]Treaty of Alcáçovas as endorsed by Sixtus IV in the 1481 papal bull Aeterni Regis.[/FONT]
  • · Gonçalo Coelho sails in May, 1501 AIOTL and explores the coast of Brazil from about 5° S to 25° S. He returns to Lisbon on Sep 7, 1502.
  • · Coelho again sails for Brazil on May 10 of 1503, discovering Fernando de Noronha where the flagship sinks. Two ships sail for Brazil (the remaining three ships never arrived) and reach Todos os Santos in November. They sail south to another bay, build a fort and set sail for Lisbon with a cargo of Brazilwood after five months, leaving 24 men at the fort. He arrives in Lisbon on June 28, 1504.
  • · [FONT=&quot]In 1503 [/FONT]Binot Paulmier, sieur de Gonneville sets sail from Honfleur to challenge the Portuguese “Mare Clausum” landing at Santa Catarina and spending 6 months among the Carijo before returning in 1505.
Notably absent is Spain. So many of the early voyages were instigated by Columbus’ discoveries, which do not happen or are unknown. Several of the explorers were also participants in CC’s voyages so some would have disappeared with him and many would be otherwise occupied.

The early explorations of the north coast of America would be seriously slowed because the idea of a northwest passage does not yet exist.

As news of Portuguese discoveries south of the Canaries spreads there would be challenges from Spain but the scale would be limited for the time being. France might be a bit more energetic but also might be distracted by the eventual discovery of North America courtesy of Basque and other fishermen. England would concentrate primarily on the northern discoveries I think.

Would the Spanish Armada sail to England?

If the wealth of Mesoamerica fell into the hands of Portugal (all below the line after all) or France perhaps, would Drake be sailing different waters?

Below is a map showing the approximate north / south division of the Atlantic and the spheres of influence of Spain and Portugal.

Treaty of Alcáçovas_edited-1.png
 
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