WI: Columbus goes to India instead of to Americas

[Armot]

What if Columbus goes to India by circumnavigating Africa instead of to Americas?

Will Spain colonize Africa in the same way that the Americas were? How would Portugal, France and other powers react?

How much of India can Spain conquer? What about Catholic penetration in India?

And finally, what about Americas? How much time until Christian Europe discover the Americas?

I think there are much more things to discuss, but these are some ideas that I got.

 

[Sevarics]

He wouldn't. The Portuguese controlled the circum-Africa route

 

[LSCatilina]

If Colombus wants to get the right road up to Indias, it's really likely that he would be employed by Portugal, that was the spearhead of all these efforts.

From that, I don't see a real difference coming with the Portuguese takeover of Indian Sea trade, and certainly not a colonisation of Africa (that offered no comparable outcome to India) past some trade posts (and of course a takeover of Morrocean coast as OTL, but that had little to do with circumnavigation in first place).

 

[Armot]

He wouldn't. The Portuguese controlled the circum-Africa route

But before Portuguese control of the route...

If Colombus wants to get the right road up to Indias, it's really likely that he would be employed by Portugal, that was the spearhead of all these efforts.

But Spain had a chance IOTL, why not in this scenario?

From that, I don't see a real difference coming with the Portuguese takeover of Indian Sea trade, and certainly not a colonisation of Africa (that offered no comparable outcome to India) past some trade posts (and of course a takeover of Morrocean coast as OTL, but that had little to do with circumnavigation in first place).

Not a colonization of Africa as OTL American levels, but what about Christianization by missionaries? That will have similar imperialistic results compared to direct colonization. Talking about Spain especially, because were very interested in Christianization of conquered peoples.

 

[Badshah]

How much of India can Spain conquer? What about Catholic penetration in India?

At most, some outposts like Goa.

Given Portugal already had a presence OTL, Spain certainly isn't going to create more Catholic penetration ITTL.

Also, Spain getting to India will ultimately lead to inter-Iberian conflict, as Portugal will want to keep their routes and their empire alive- it might also lead to the Portuguese discovering the New World, since Spanish pressure would create the need to find new possible routes to the Indies.

 

[Armot]

At most, some outposts like Goa.

Given Portugal already had a presence, Spain certainly isn't going to create more Catholic penetration.

Also, Spain getting to India will ultimately lead to inter-Iberian conflict, as Portugal will want to keep their routes and their empire alive- it might also lead to the Portuguese discovering the New World, since Spanish pressure would create the need to find new possible routes to the Indies.

Wait, Portugal already had presence in India before 1492?

 

[Badshah]

Wait, Portugal already had presence in India before 1492?

I meant that Portugal had a presence OTL, so we sort of understand that Spain isn't going to be able to do any more than that. If they try being too harsh, they will end up being driven out.

 

[Armot]

I meant that Portugal had a presence OTL, so we sort of understand that Spain isn't going to be able to do any more than that. If they try being too harsh, they will end up being driven out.

That was before 1492? The Portuguese presence in India will be that strong if no Vasco da Gama?

 

[Just a Rube]

That was before 1492? The Portuguese presence in India will be that strong if no Vasco da Gama?

The Portuguese had trading posts in Africa, had reached the Cape of Good Hope, and were preparing for Vasco da Gama's expedition. It's true that the Portuguese hadn't yet reached India, but Columbus wouldn't do that on his first voyage either. He didn't do more than claim a few islands in his first voyage OTL; he'd certainly want to get a better sense of the route before he tried for India in one shot. He didn't have access to Portuguese maps, after all. By the time he was ready, the Portuguese would already have been there, even assuming they didn't expedite the attempt in reaction to news that the Spanish were trying to encroach on their discoveries.

The Portuguese had already effectively called "dibs" on the African route to India, and had had that recognized by the Church. The Spanish were able to use a sympathetic pope to wriggle out of that and legitimize Columbus's colonial claims, but essentially copying the Portuguese route after they had spent decades laying the groundwork would be a much tougher sale.

 

[LSCatilina]

But before Portuguese control of the route...

As other people said, they were well in their way to control the road, and already did for African shores scout and mapping.

But Spain had a chance IOTL, why not in this scenario?

Spain managed to get "dibbs" on America because Colombus expedition was crazy : he believed the earth was shorter than everyone said (and that we say still today). Portuguese reaction was more "Okay, you do that", than really feeling they passed a chance, and without the conquest of Mexico and Peru, Spain would have gained the chance of wasting ressources (I'm a bit unfair, sugar cane plantations in Antillas would have been a bonus, but nowhere close of Indias trade).

See, Portugal was a bit like America and its space program, when Spain was an USSR with half-assed programs. One says "Let's go for Mars, at such date and in such conditions", the other argue that you could cut short by going trough the Sun.

Talking about Spain especially, because were very interested in Christianization of conquered peoples.

There's a confusion : Spain, as a state, wasn't interested on conquering people, but spanish nobility was interested on conquering lands and the spanish rulers were interested on gold.

Talking about state imperialism is a bit of an anachronism as we're seeing several social layers with different interests that could be as well divergent if not opposed.

Lands in Black Africa needed an awful drain of ressources with the current technology. Gold was a think, critically in Sahel, but the tentatives of conquest or at least disruption proved wasteful as well and nowhere as close than Indias trade.

For Christianisation, it depends really and is not the same as conquest : OTL Portugal took over Maghreb coast and places in Indian Ocea but couldn't be bothered to convert people living there. On the other hand, african leaders as the Kings of Kongo converted themselves without (direct) control.