1] in 1936, Chiang Kai Shek was temporarily deposed as leader of the KMT in the Xi'an Incident before re-obtaining power and making an alliance with the CCP that would later prove fatal to him (at least, that's what I get from it from a basic once over). What if, in an alternate timeline, Shek died at Xi'an and Bai Chongxi, a soldier who had served since he was 14 in 1907 and Shek's future National Defense Minister as well as one half of the Guangxi regional Warlords (the other half being Li Zongren), became KMT head in the aftermath of it (any date between 1936-1939 would probably fit best)? How does Chongxi handle the Civil War and war with Japan? What his administration look like? How does he co-operate with the allies during the war? What would be his post-war plans?
2] Bonus points if you can include having Mao's faction of the CCP be smothered out by Shek or Bai in the Long March for the what if.
1] and
2] are two separate alternate historical speculation requests, and out of sequence. The Long March and the chance to smother Mao on the march, or in the encirclement campaigns before it, all taking place between 1933 and 1935, were over before the Xian incident in which CKS was kidnapped, in 1936.
I am uncertain about Bai Chongxi's viability as a successor leader of the KMT. He was a prominent soldier-leader of the KMT-aligned Guangxi-Generals clique faction, but I believe he had less political weight than Li Zongren (sometimes also written Li Zongwen). The Guangxi Clique, which also included the forces of Zhang Fakui, had as assets competently led and loyal forces, and a reasonably well-administered, politically loyal and patriotically indoctrinated, interior protected provincial base (Guangxi) with some mineral wealth. And the Guangxi clique's leaders had good relations with some of the Guangdong Clique's leading Generals including Xue Yue (also rendered as Hsueh Yueh) and Cai Tingkai. But they held no sway over the forces officered and trained by central Whampoa Academy clique.
Ho Ying-Chin was the leader of the Whampoa Clique (despite having no positive remarkable combat reputation), which include other prominent members like Tang Enbo (lackluster), Hu Zhongnan (same), Chen Cheng (better reputation)
Without Chiang micromanaging the NRA, Bai could defeat the PLA.
Certainly not in the timeframe *before* the confrontation with Japan is coming, or public opinion compels confrontation with Japan, unless Japan somehow shows uncharacteristic restraint, while the killing of Chiang Kai-shek while in Communist/Communist-aligned captivity justifies among Nationalist Chinese groups a couple years free reign to engage in anti-communist campaigns while ignoring Japan. This is a tall order.
lest China have a Naxalite- type insurgency lasting into the current day.
Reduction of CCP to a Naxalite-like phenomenon, or a Colombian FARC like phenomenon might be about as much of an anticommunist victory that China could achieve for the life the Soviet Union or 20th century.
I don't know enough about the KMT's internal politics, but my guess is that if Chiang Kai-shek were killed in Xi'an, power would fall to He Yingqin due to his being acting commander of the Chinese army during the incident.
He Yingqin (the same guy I called Ho Ying-Chin, above) would certainly feel entitled to rule. He was ready to bomb Xi'an in OTL, during CKS captivity. He was an anticommunist, but a dove toward Japan. One of the major truces with Japan in 33 or 35 was named for him.
He Yingqin was not known for his competence and I think he would either be replaced or lead the KMT on a slow path to defeat in the continuing civil war against the CCP.
It raises the question of who replaces him however. Who else would the KMT party apparatus and the central army units under Whampoa trained officers could get behind? Seems to me the trajectory of the fight with the CCP would be determined by whether the various non-Central/non-Whampoa warlord factions choose to be helpful to Central Army anti-Communist campaigns, or obstructive to anti-Communist campaigns and aid CCP survival. And whether the Japanese 'give the Central Army room' to pursue its anti-Communist campaigns by remaining quiet and doing any 'support' for anti-Communist operations in a low-key, deniable, staff officer exchange way, rather than by distracting He Yingqin or killing his prestige with further attacks, land grabs, humiliating public demands, or muscling in to take control of 'joint Sino-Japanese anti-communist operations'.
More that the KMT would defeat itself by unravelling into factions without a credible leader to keep it together.
Well, the way I could see it fracture is if the Whampoa faction of He Yingqin is considered to Japan appeasing. Being patriotically anti-Japanese is the most politically sellable justification for political-military mutiny in China in this decade. So if He is considered indifferent to creeping Japanese advancement while focused on anti-communist campaigns, or does joint ops with IJA against Communist troops and bases, I could imagine different formerly aligned KMT warlords in Northwest China and Southwest China ditching their loyalty to the Central Nanjing government and allying with the Communists against Japan and Nanjing.
The good thing about a Japan-collaborating Chinese government for *some* Chinese people (not Communist base areas or other rural 'rebel zones') like Nanjing and other centrally governed cities, is those cities are not getting bombed or raped by Japanese forces. He Yingqin's Whampoa faction was right-wing and known for being more anti-Communist than anti-Japanese, whereas the southwest (Guangxi) and northwest Generals were less reactionary and more anti-Japanese. TV Soong led a liberal bloc in the KMT apparatus that was anti-Japanese and more American oriented, but did not directly lead any military forces. The CC Clique and Blueshirts were powerful right-wing factions in the KMT party apparatus known for at least controlling many bureaucrats, youth groups, street thugs, spies and assassins. They were known for being anti-communist, but also had a reputation for being anti-Japanese too.
He Yingqin or Wang Jingwei leading China in a pro-Japanese direction is quite some untapped potential in AH, I would say.
Absolutely agree.
