WI: Charles the Bold and Louis XI Swap Death Dates?

[Kellan Sullivan]

As it says on the tin. Louis XI dies in 1477, leaving a 7yo heir, Charles VIII. Charles the Bold makes a miraculous escape from his defeat at Nancy and manages a few more years.

Now, I'm not sure that those extra years will mean Charles the Bold and Margaret of York have a son (time is against her, after all). Which means his heiress will remain Marie of Burgundy. In all likelihood, future Emperor Maximilian is still the best candidate to marry her.

However, the question of what happens in France is more pressing. OTL regent Anne de Beaujeu - I suspect Queen Charlotte would be regent, given how Anne is barely 15yo - faced challenges to her authority in the form of the so-called Guerre Folie from rebellious princes and noblemen. It stands to reason that Charles the Bold will likely join them in their rebellion. Would Queen Charlotte - who I'll admit, I don't know much about her political capabilities - be able to see off the challengers? Or would her son end up ruling over a Balkanized France? Would Edward IV take the opportunity to snap up some lands to bolster his regime?

@isabella @VVD0D95 @material_boy @Vitruvius

 

[isabella]

Well Charlotte is unlikely to be able to do much but she will be the Regent as neither Anne or Orleans are old enough to challenge her for the role. Louis d’Orleans, 15 years old and married to a 13 years old bride here will have little trouble to free himself from a wedding not consummated and to which he was forced against his will meaning who he would be free to remarry elsewhere. Edward IV is unlikely to join an anti-French coalition while his daughter Elizabeth is engaged to the young King Charles and his regime is quite stable but Charles the bold and Francis of Brittany will surely try to reaffirm their independence from France with the arms.
Mary here would likely marry soon Maximilian and is possible who Maximilian will receive the lands who Mary could have troubles to inherit (starting with the Duchy o Burgundy) as her dowry.

 

[material_boy]

Oh this is a good one 😄

Charles the Bold makes a miraculous escape from his defeat at Nancy and manages a few more years.

Unless you're planning on Charles dying ina different battle at some later date, then I'd guess he lives longer than "a few more years." Looking at male-line members of his family who died of natural causes: His father lived until 70, four half-brothers lived to 60, 61, 68 and 83, and his great-grandfather lived to 62. I think we could reasonably assume that Charles would live to his mid to late 60s -- i.e., until around the year 1500, which gives him another 23 years to work on siring a male heir and uniting the Burgundian state.

In all likelihood, future Emperor Maximilian is still the best candidate to marry her.

Agree. Charles wanted to be a king and recognition as such from the emperor was really his only way to achieve that.

However, the question of what happens in France is more pressing. OTL regent Anne de Beaujeu - I suspect Queen Charlotte would be regent, given how Anne is barely 15yo - faced challenges to her authority in the form of the so-called Guerre Folie from rebellious princes and noblemen. It stands to reason that Charles the Bold will likely join them in their rebellion. Would Queen Charlotte - who I'll admit, I don't know much about her political capabilities - be able to see off the challengers? Or would her son end up ruling over a Balkanized France? Would Edward IV take the opportunity to snap up some lands to bolster his regime?

Yes, I think that an ATL Mad War breaks out earlier here -- and I have to wonder if the crown can succeed here with Burgundy on side. In OTL, Maximilian's invasion of northern France was thrown back and then he distracted by revolt in Flanders. Charles may succeed where Max failed and, even if he did fail, he may not have a rebellion to keep him from launching a second invasion. If the ATL French crown loses, the country is back to where it was near the start of the century in terms of centralization.

I'd like to think an ATL Mad War draws Edward IV back to France -- we are only a couple of years removed from his aborted 1475 invasion, after all -- and that we see a full-on Yorkist Phase of the HYW, which we were denied in OTL, but I guess that would depend on just when the ATL Mad War breaks out and how obese ATL Edward has gotten by that time.

One major butterfly that you didn't touch on is Italy. The death of Charles in OTL removed the only major territorial threat to France, which allowed Louis to look toward Italy for the first time and for his successors to launch the Italian Wars. I suspect all of that is wiped out in ATL.

 

[FesteringSpore]

Oh this is a good one 😄



Unless you're planning on Charles dying ina different battle at some later date, then I'd guess he lives longer than "a few more years." Looking at male-line members of his family who died of natural causes: His father lived until 70, four half-brothers lived to 60, 61, 68 and 83, and his great-grandfather lived to 62. I think we could reasonably assume that Charles would live to his mid to late 60s -- i.e., until around the year 1500, which gives him another 23 years to work on siring a male heir and uniting the Burgundian state.

But the prompt is "death date" though

So instead of dying in 1477 he dies in 1483. How does he die? In battle, on the chamber pot, in bed- doesn't matter. @Kellan Sullivan is asking what Charles the Bold could probably do if he managed to die 6 years later than OTL, as 1483 is when the Universal Spider died

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

Unless you're planning on Charles dying ina different battle at some later date

Charles is gonna Charles. He's gonna piss someone off and have to fight them. If not the Swiss, it'll be the Gueldrians, the Frisians, the Danish...

Charles the Bold DID have an alliance with Gerhard the Pugnacious, Count of Oldenburg (Christian i's brother) via the Treaty of Quokkenbrugge. Gerhard helped Charles at the Siege of Neuss and in exchange, Charles was going to help Gerry in his war on the Frisians. Unfortunately, Emperor Friedrich III intervened. Gerry carried on with his quasi war against the bishop of Bremen, the city of Hamburg, Frisians and the Hansa. While he was finally defeated, he and his nephew, Jakob, both have a reputation of turning Delmenhorst into a nest of pirates preying on Hansa shipping.

 

[BlueFlowwer]

Charles is gonna Charles. He's gonna piss someone off and have to fight them. If not the Swiss, it'll be the Gueldrians, the Frisians, the Danish...

True, true. Man had a incredibility to piss people off.

 

[material_boy]

But the prompt is "death date" though

You're right. I completely forgot when writing a response.

 

[Elfwine]

It's interesting as far as consequences that this one has Charles still lose at Nancy (and "miraculous escape" implies his army doesn't fare much better than OTL).

How hard a time will he have raising the funds and soldiers to do anything in regards to a rebellion in France? Not to say that he won't try, but it might turn out to work out very much against his/Burgundy's interests.

 

[Vitruvius]

Charles could also just end up dying invading France during the regency of Charles VIII. If he and the other nobles are successful what are Charles' demands? The succession of the Duchy of Burgundy to his daughter and her heirs for sure but anything else? Formal enfeoffment of the Somme towns maybe as Count of Vermandois?

 

[RedKing]

If I am not mistaken, wasn’t Louis of Orleans the driving force behind the Mad War, due to his exclusion from the Regency? If so, would a 15 year old Louis honestly expect to be made Regent/have the ambition to try and claim it, especially when Charlotte is the Regent as per tradition?

 

[eliamartin65]

If I am not mistaken, wasn’t Louis of Orleans the driving force behind the Mad War, due to his exclusion from the Regency? If so, would a 15 year old Louis honestly expect to be made Regent/have the ambition to try and claim it, especially when Charlotte is the Regent as per tradition?

Louis XII did WHAT now?

 

[RedKing]

Louis XII did WHAT now?

If I am not mistaken he wanted to become regent for Charles VIII but was denied and then took up arms with his allies starting the mad war. I could be mistaken however.

 

[eliamartin65]

If I am not mistaken he wanted to become regent for Charles VIII but was denied and then took up arms with his allies starting the mad war. I could be mistaken however.

True or false, it's very Louis XII of him.

 

[kasumigenx]

He could end up disinheriting Mary with a huge dowry for her marriage with Maximilian if Charles the Bold reconciles with Nevers, which would result in a delayed war of succession.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

If I am not mistaken, wasn’t Louis of Orleans the driving force behind the Mad War, due to his exclusion from the Regency? If so, would a 15 year old Louis honestly expect to be made Regent/have the ambition to try and claim it, especially when Charlotte is the Regent as per tradition?

wonder if a shrewder head- say Margaret of York- could do in France what she tried to do in England. Go "hey, my husband wants to be regent" in public but then, under the table (a la Perkin Warbeck/Lambert Simnel) actually plump up Louis XII as a candidate because she knows that nobody's pro-a Burgundian regency of France

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

we are only a couple of years removed from his aborted 1475 invasion, after all -- and that we see a full-on Yorkist Phase of the HYW, which we were denied in OTL,

how do you think this Yorkist phase of a HYW reboot would look?

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

so I'm revisiting this idea, given that I've now given both Charles the Bold and Louis XI sons a few months apart in 1470. Would a Charles with a surviving son (future Philippe IV? Charles II? Jean II?) position himself if Louis XI dies leaving a 7-yo heir in 1477? Obviously, the matter of a male heir will make little difference to whether he's accepted as French regent or not, but what it might do is affect the reaction when Charles himself dies. Charles VIII (or his regents) meddling in the Low Countries as a sort of "payback"?

@Janprimus @material_boy

 

[Hastings]

Yep, Louis XII wanted to become regent and as a consolation prize decided to take part in trying to break French royal power. Of course rather fortunate for him he failed given Charles VIII would die without an heir and he succeed...

 

[Janprimus]

so I'm revisiting this idea, given that I've now given both Charles the Bold and Louis XI sons a few months apart in 1470. Would a Charles with a surviving son (future Philippe IV? Charles II? Jean II?) position himself if Louis XI dies leaving a 7-yo heir in 1477? Obviously, the matter of a male heir will make little difference to whether he's accepted as French regent or not, but what it might do is affect the reaction when Charles himself dies. Charles VIII (or his regents) meddling in the Low Countries as a sort of "payback"?

@Janprimus @material_boy

I beg to differ, especially, when France is so weak as well. Likely Burgundy can keep the county of Boulogne as a vassal (historic ties with both Flanders and Artois), but not the counties of Ponthieu and Vermandois and the Somme towns.
A male heir would keep Bugundy more in line not less, the Estates General are wary of too powerful rulers at the same rightfully averse of foreign meddling. So maybe divided enough to not be able to meddle in France, but by no means a French puppet.