Ok, so I stink at timelines, but here is a stab at an only moderately ASB background to something that could end up being classified (by outsiders) as a revolution in Saudi Arabia
Early 1970's aware that their influence & position was based on their position as swing producer of oil, key Saudi princes conspire to begin artificially inflating reserve estimates. This process continues, and courtesy of typical OJT and turnover, rapidly takes on a life of it's own.
Late 1980s, the degree of distortion growing rapidly to Gosplan levels of unreality.
Mid 1990's Attempts to impose rationality & accuracy on estimates flounder on an inability to realize how far back the problem goes. Many of the princes originally involved in the decisions are dead, and the few who are alive fully expect to pass before a crisis is reached.
2002-2004 Production problems and localized peaks are a recurring pattern across the Saudi portion of the oil fields. Terrified of potential American overreaction in the post 9-11 environment, kingdom management runs production flat out, postponing scheduled maintenance and clamping down on reports of production shortfalls. Senior princes meanwhile are moving vast sums abroad via banking secrecy havens.
Early 2005 Under a new, young leader, Kingdom policy turns decisively against the US involvement in Iraq. Kingdom announces that it will not longer artificially subsidize low oil prices for the benefit of the Iraqi Invaders. Opec rejoices. In secrecy, the princes are relieved at finding an excuse to hide the fact that the Kingdom is simply no longer able to maintain such high production volumes.
2006 - the financial drain, and gradual flight of the princes have begun to take their toll. Too many of the powerful and wealthy elder princes are no longer in country, and the patronage networks they sponsored have begun to collapse. The nation's finances, historically a cookie jar for the ruling family, are falling apart. Some of the younger, ostracized family members, unaware of the background, are suddenly finding that their push for more power, more influence, and (in a few cases) liberalizing change, are no longer being constantly blocked and diverted. Meanwhile, the large numbers of educated but unemployed youth flock to the Iraqi alleys and gunfights. As the American forces surge and the Sunni Awakening turns against them, they return, bitter, radicalized, and ready to fight.
2007 - Low level strife between the remaining (very traditionalist) princes and the various factions of young up and comers breaks out into violence. The assassinations, kidnappings, and blackmail are swept under the rug. Terrorists, criminal syndicates, even zionist/crusader/shi'a saboteurs are blamed.
2008 - the spike in oil prices provides the kingdom with a brief respite, but the battle-lines have been drawn. Those with skills valued in safer quarters begin to make plans - younger sons & cousins with engineering, medical, and financial background begin emigrating to Europe, Turkey, Egypt, Lebanon, India, Canada, America, Australia, Morocco, and Indonesia, making preparations to support fleeing relatives if worst comes to worst. Hidden behind the spike, the Kingdom's premier oil fields are on their last legs. Worst of all, the vast investment funds that were to ease the kingdom's post oil transition are nearly gone, casually embezzled by the ruling family for decades, then looted by the fleeing senior princes, then pillaged ruthlessly to support the private wars of 2006-2007, the global financial crash of 2008 had nearly evaporated them. The famous SAMA was unceremoniously folded back into the Bank of Saudi Arabia late on on a Saturday in October. Historians would later bookmark this date as the de-facto bankruptcy of the House of Saud.
January 3rd, 2009. Barely noticed in the world's post New Years hangover, sabotage, lack of maintenance, and exhaustion of oil fields have taken their toll over the years. This marks the day (later a subject of constant debate) when the number of non-producing fields exceeded the number of producing fields in the kingdom for the first time.
January 17th, 2009. First austerity measures in the Kingdom. King appears on national tv, reprimanding fellow Saudi's for ostentation, indulging in western vices, and frittering away allah's gift of oil wealth to the arab people on vanity and personal indulgence. Makes symbolic gestures of banning private aircraft, owning more than one home, and makes falsification of financial statements an executable offense.
March 31, 2009. Bank of Saudi Arabia reschedules an interest payment for the first time.
April 3rd - 8th, the Black Week, aka the 09 crash, aka the Saudi Crash - financial institutions collapse world wide as Kingdom liquidates remaining holdings to make payments to security forces and petroleum industry repair crews.
April 15th, 2009. Bank of Saudi Arabia reschedules an interest payment for the second time. Several Saudi owned firms file US tax forms restating the last several years, listing reduced income, large unrecoverable losses to theft and piracy.
April 18th, 2009. Prince Faisal extradited to Kingdom to face charges of embezzlement of kingdom funds.
April 20th 2009. Faisal Bombing Remaining supporters of senior princes stage daylight attack on trial, killing hundreds, including Faisal. King, presiding over the proceedings, is severely wounded. The young, desperate, perhaps even idealistic (though as many or more consider him to merely be realistic and opportunistic) is widely admired by all sides, even those who consider his actions foolish and destructive. The would be unifying figure, he will spend the next several weeks in a coma in John's Hopkins, unable to prevent the collapse of the Kingdom he struggled so hard first to lead, and then to save.
April 21st, 2009 early morning - while some consider the Faisal Trial Attack as the moment the collapse of the Saudi family became irreversibly bloody, most point to the pre-dawn clashes between the various security forces outside the airport as the King was medevaced to JH as the true death knell for hopes of a peaceful transition.
April 21st mid day - a triumvirate of mostly middle aged princes (the oldest still in the Kingdom) announces an emergency tripart regency to steer the kingdom through the troubled days until their (younger, well loved) brother can retake the throne. Between them they command or influence nearly 70% of the remaining organized security forces, or 55% of the total armed forces in the territory.
April 21st, morning, UK time. An oil industry market analyst, speaking Bloomberg European Markets Open, publicly connects the dots between the position liquidations, the demand for repair crews, dividend & interest reschedulings, American focus on Iran & Pakistan, and the exodus of non-oil, non-security foreigners from Saudi Arabia for the first time. Thousands of traders, previously convinced that the US government would maintain stability in the Kingdom to keep the oil flowing, started asking themselves "And what if there was no oil to flow?"
April 21st, morning NYC - the market opens down radically, Saudi & Saudi affiliated institutions are frozen out of the credit markets, oil primaries talk up non-saudi fields.
April 21st midday, Washington DC - amid the ongoing violence in Saudi Arabia, the US congress passes emergency bills rescinding restrictions on continental shelf oil exploration & exploitation.
April 21st late afternoon - at a press conference, the President, responding to a leading question from T Anderson of the London Times - "Of course we wish the people of the Kingdom well, and just as the doctors at Johns Hopkins will do their best for the King, we will do our best to provide whatever peaceful assistance is requested of us. The Saudi people are our allies, and we hope that they make the right choices in these trying times. But the United States is not an empire, and it is not our place to dictate to them what arrangements are best for their history and culture."
Widely interpreted (misinterpreted according to the former president's autobiography) as a green light for regime change in the kingdom. These words were accepted in the many parts of the world as the Obama administration washing its hands of the House of Saud.
Without money, without oil, and now without their foreign protection, the House was not long for this world.
April 22nd, inspired by the rumors racing around the internet, Shi'a partisans along the gulf coast begin agitating for and end to second class status. At the same time, the triumvirate in Riyadh is rapidly falling apart - as each member believed that the others had secretly managed to secure the Kingdoms vast investment funds. The ugly realization that they were all equally broke, and that there were no secret funds to secure, led first to distrust, then anger, and finally despair.
Two members of the triumvirate denounced the others as thieves and conspirators in the attacks of the 20th & 21st, while the other fled with his family and supporters to London.
April 23rd, early morning, Riyadh. Open warfare breaks out among the security forces of the remaining princes -as each sought to secure control, first of key government sites, then of key infrastructure points within the city. Meanwhile, in Jeddah, a coalition of younger princes, merchants, clerics, and local security declared both contenders in Riyadh usurpers, and declared their neutrality. They would await the recovery of their king, or, in the event of his demise, would make other arrangements.
April 24 - May 8th. Fighting continued in Riyadh, but the realization that the only wealth to be had was from looting soon set in. After the first four days, both sides ceased to exist as organized forces. The Jeddah Movement for the Arab People was rapidly recognized as the preferred model by arabs exhausted by years of factional conflict, and horrified by the example of open warfare in their once glorious capital.
May 9th. Jeddah Declaration - the sons of the king, now considered to be the only legitimate (or surviving?) line from the former House of Saud side with the burgeoning Reform & Reconstruction movement, a somewhat naive effort to restructure the Kingdom along a never quite clear mix of Turkish, British, and Omani lines.
May 10th - the Highway Stand, a large group of former security forces in Riyadh unify under the leadership of a former airforce captain, and launch a drive to intimidate & take command of the new Jeddah based government/movement. They are met 75 miles outside Jeddah by a mix of security forces, armed citizens, and the remaining elements of the national guard. The battle starts in the afternoon, and continues well into the evening before a sandstorm puts a halt to the fighting. The next day, the survivors dig out and limp back to Jeddah. Most of the Riyadh group were slain, and the survivors preferred to switch loyalties for a second chance at normalcy.
May 11th - fighting comes to a halt in Riyadh and environs as news of the Highway Stand filters back. After evening prayers, the remaining TV's and Radios broadcast the news that the new government - the Transitional Authority of Arabia, is sending forces to restore order. Elections will be held at year end to fill a newly created Sovreign Consultative Committee (aka a parliament) to be seated in Jeddah. The eldest son of the remaining king will take office as Regent until his father recovers.
May 12th...
