WI Cape Verde still Portugese ?
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Alex Richards
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Reagent's the better one to ask about this, but I think it comes down to something along the lines of trying to hold onto everything, which when that went down south led to just getting rid of it all very quickly to end the immediate problem. Generally better African investments or just being more choosy about what could and could not be kept (for example abandoning Portuguese Guinea in 1970 or so thereby freeing up attention for the more winnable issues elsewhere).
Not hard. So we had a clinging integralist regime for decades and when the Carnation Revolution came, the transitory government (already with difficulty maintaining order in the Metropole) had an "everything must go" attitude towards the Overseas.
The natural psyche of even left-wing Portuguese in the mid-20th century was not for decolonization, even the Communist Party emphasized the ties of Portugal with its Overseas until very late. It was the attrition of the war and the sudden turn of events that prompted the policy of running out of Africa.
So we don't even need a democratic Portugal, we'd only need a regime ready to compromise and the natural evolution of at least Cape Verde and São Tomé was to remain in Portugal.
Cape Verde would always be a burden to Portugal. Still, without events similar to OTL or a strong anti-Portuguese sentiment in Cape Verde, I don't see enough momentum for the Portuguese government to push them out. And once Portugal is in the EEC, Cape Verde will never want to leave.
Given that there was no local opposition to Cape Verde staying Portuguese, they would have stayed if some of the (more communist-influenced) provisional governments were not so inclined of letting everything go without any local elections or referendums.
If Cape Verde stays with Portugal, it would be an autonomous region of Portugal (like Madeira and Azores), after the New State regime falls peacefully or not.
The level of autonomy would be considerable as in the two cases mentioned, but it would receive significant financial help from Mainland Portugal. The same applies to São Tomé and Principe.
If Cape Verde stays with Portugal, it would be an autonomous region of Portugal (like Madeira and Azores), after the New State regime falls peacefully or not.
The level of autonomy would be considerable as in the two cases mentioned, but it would receive significant financial help from Mainland Portugal. The same applies to São Tomé and Principe.
What about Cabinda? As I understand things it was technically a separate colony but the governor of Angola also second-hatted as the governor of it as well which the Angolans used as an excuse after independence to annex the place. It seems like one of the largest missed opportunities for Portugal when keeping small parts of their empire with regards to oil. If they were keeping Cape Verde and Sao Tome and Príncipe any chance that they hang onto it as well, or would they just wash their hands of the mainland?
The problem with that is that the premise of the PAIGC was to have both Cape Verde and Portuguese Guinea independent as a united country, which probably made the war in Guinea even more brutal. Amilcar Cabral, for example, is celebrated as an independence hero in both Cape Verde and Guinea-Bissau. So whilst there was some resistance to Portuguese colonialism, it was latent and would not have been noticeable at first glance.
How would they even be able to support their fighters in Cape Verde though, provided either the government either refuses to let them go, or a referendum proves favorable to the Portuguese? It's not as if they have the benefit of being able to conduct cross-border operations from nations friendly to their cause.
Yes, any Portuguese government not impaired by a "must-give-independence-to-everything-that's-ever-been-a-colony" mode would try to keep the golden egg producing chicken.
That's what it wanted, that doesn't mean that's what it'd ever get. The guerrilla was restricted to Guinea, it wasn't possible to do it effectively on the islands anyway...
Alex Richards
Donor
They also had absolutely zilch presence in the islands until the Portuguese government collapsed itself at which point they surprised just about everyone including the inhabitants of Cape Verde by creating a transitional government including members of the PAIGC and promptly sent it on its way.
You mean Azores or Madeira Islands. The Canaries are Spanish.
As to the how, just let the locals vote on a 1974 referendun on wether they wanted to be an automous region of Portugal or part of the new Guiné and Cabo Verde nation. Once the autonomy vote wins, a few Fiat G91 jets and a couple of frigates would be enough to prevent a Guiné coup, as long as the USA prevented Soviet interference.
It didn't happen that way becouse of communist influence on the descolonization process in 1974/5 (remember it was before the november 1975 anti comunnist coup by the army.
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Soviet influence in Angola would make that a lot tougher. They brought in a large force of Cuban "volunteers" to make sure MPLA would win, and MPLA would fight hard to retain Cabinda. But those oil deposits would be so useful to us now...
Cape Verde (São Tomé and Príncipe too) remaining Portuguese really wouldn't be hard as the independence movement was in Guinea-Bissau not on the islands. After 1975 the islands pegged the Cape Verde escudo to the Portuguese Escudo and later the Euro. Also, a few years back there was talk of trying to get in the EU with Portuguese sponsorship even if it meant becoming an autonomous region of Portugal. Most of their trade and tourism links are with Portugal and Western Europe, it is also where the largest diaspora population is (Portugal, France, Netherlands, Italy).
Perhaps if the post 1974 government remained more moderate. After September of 1974 the Portuguese government moved radically to the left and wanted to hand over power in the colonies to any left-wing movement it could.
One of the things the New State never did that it should have was invest in tourist infrastructure, following the Spanish example in the Canaries. The Cape Verde Islands are dry and aren't great for agriculture (hence the mass emigration), however the climate is perfect year round for holidaymakers. Only since the late 1990s has tourism really grown (especially from Portugal and Italy). Had the islands remained part of Portugal, perhaps tourism could have grown at least 20 years earlier. Had tourism reached a level of the Algarve, the islands would be much wealthier. Also, being part of the EU would have allowed tourists to come and go more freely and opened up the labour market of Western Europe to more Cape Verdeans.
Perhaps if the post 1974 government remained more moderate. After September of 1974 the Portuguese government moved radically to the left and wanted to hand over power in the colonies to any left-wing movement it could.
One of the things the New State never did that it should have was invest in tourist infrastructure, following the Spanish example in the Canaries. The Cape Verde Islands are dry and aren't great for agriculture (hence the mass emigration), however the climate is perfect year round for holidaymakers. Only since the late 1990s has tourism really grown (especially from Portugal and Italy). Had the islands remained part of Portugal, perhaps tourism could have grown at least 20 years earlier. Had tourism reached a level of the Algarve, the islands would be much wealthier. Also, being part of the EU would have allowed tourists to come and go more freely and opened up the labour market of Western Europe to more Cape Verdeans.
And the Portuguese always had more sympathy for the Cape Verde people than for any other of its African former colonies. They had the reputation, even before 74, of a high standard of education, of speaking excellent Portuguese and being friendly and polite. Even today most Portuguese regard, for example, Cape Verde music as part of our cultural heritage.
Well the Democratic Republic of Congo provides a useful barrier and Mobuto was a staunch anti-communist, Ngouabi in the Republic of Congo is more problematic but they'd have to ship people and supplies in by boat and Yhombi-Opango came to power after only a couple of years who whilst something of a Marxist appears to have been pretty pragmatic and unlikely to consider hosting a guerrilla group. One idea I had was for them to offer colonists from Mozambique and Angola that didn't want to stay on after independence but also not fancy going back to Portugal the chance of re-settling there to try and help stack the deck as it were population-wise somewhat.
A white enclave there would be too vulnerable. If the Portuguese had separated Cabinda from Angola earlier, there would have been the possibility of independence for the local population, and oil would guarantee international backers eventually. To make it an autonomous region of Portugal would probably require similar status for São Tomé as well as Cape Verde, and local support. I have thought of PODs for a version of Portugal that retains (as autonomous regions) all three, but found myself going back to the first republic in order to make them plausible. Portugal never really dealt with the race issue, just doing what we like to do with problems, which is to pretend they don't exist, and I believe that full equality for black citizens of Portuguese African territories early on would be essential for some sort of Federal Portuguese Republic with african autonomous regions to be viable.
Alex Richards
Donor
I would love to see a TL where Cabinda, Sao Tome and Cape Verde stay Portuguese after loss of Angola & Mozambique.
You'll like the one just down the page from this then...