WI: Brazilian empire adopts a monarchist foreign policy on Latin America

At the end of the 1820s, Pedro I wanted to transform the former Spanish colonies into constitutional monarchies, and even instructed his minister of foreign affairs Calmon to send a letter to the Brazilian diplomat in Europe about this, Pedro also maintained correspondence on the subject with the pope through cardinal Pietro onisti , Pietro and Pedro offered an agreement to the Pope for he recognize the former spanish colonies As sovereign nations As long as princes were sent from Europe to govern.

About Cisplatina Brazil would accept an independent Uruguay as a grand duchy or principality but would under no circumstances be part of argentine Monarchy If the English or French were opposed to reinstating Cisplatina in Brazil, In the letter Calmon instructs the diplomat when talking to English and/or French representatives and being asked who the monarchs would be that the preference would be for bourbon princes

"Therefore, Your Imperial Majesty wishes that Your Excellency (Brazilian diplomat in Europe). as soon as invited by any of the so-called Governments to give their opinion on such a touchy subject, or when it even appears that they take serious care of the business in question, you must declare themselve authorized to compete and intervene in the aforementioned negotiation, limiting itself, in its progress, to the doctrine of the following articles

5. Your Excellence will seek to demonstrate, and make the sovereigns who have to take part in this negotiation feel, that the means, if not the only one, at least the most effective, of pacifying and establishing the former Spanish colonies, is to establish constitutional or representative monarchies in the different States that are independent. The ideas propagated, and the principles acquired over the course of 20 years of revolution, prevent the present generation from willingly submitting to the form of absolute Government.

It was for no other reason that, even in Europe, king Louis XVIII, despite
having passed France through Napoleon's military despotism, and despite
of the support he would find in the strength of the numerous Armies that claimed his throne, he judged, however, in his wisdom, that it was better to grant a Charter to the French than to assume absolute authority. Finally, if the character and customs of Spanish Americans area dapted, on the one hand, to the monarchy; its new ideas and principles, although faced with so many misfortunes, they are inclined, on the other hand, to the mixed form. That said, it is absolutely appropriate that Your Excellency. insist on this point with all your
strength.

6. When it comes to founding representative monarchies and only in this case, Your Excellency, will show the convenience of committing, on this occasion, to the nascent national pride of the new States of America, already separated from each other and independent of each other. Mexico, Colombia, Peru, Chile, Bolivia and the Argentine provinces may be many other distinct and separate monarchies. The division of any of these States, or the reunion of others, would encounter serious inconveniences in the minds of the people.


7. As for the new Eastern State or the Cisplatina Province, which does not
is part of Argentine territory, which was already incorporated into Brazil, and which
it cannot exist independently of another State, Your Excellency, will try in due time, and with frankness, to prove the need to incorporate it again to the Empire. It is the only vulnerable side of Brazil. It is difficult, if not impossible, to repress reciprocal hostilities and prevent mutual impunity between evil inhabitants of both borders. It is the natural limit of the Empire. Ultimately, it is an effective means of removing and preventing further causes of discord between Brazil and the Southern States.

8. And in the event that England and France oppose this meeting at Brazil, your Excellence will insist, for reasons of political expediency, that are obvious and solid, in which the Eastern State remains independent, constituted as a Grand Duchy or Principality, so that it does not come from in no way to form part of the Argentine monarchy.

9. When choosing princes for the thrones of the new monarchies and, when it is necessary to have them from Europe, Your Excellency will not hesitate to give his opinion in favor of those members of the august Bourbon family who are considering moving to America. These princes, in addition to the prestige they
accompanies them as descendants or close relatives of the dynasty that for many years reigned over the same States, they offer too much, his powerful blood relations and friendship with so many sovereigns, a solid guarantee for the tranquility and consolidation of the new monarchies.

10°. And if indeed some young prince is chosen as the second son of the Duke of Orleans; or even princes who already have children, It will be good and His Imperial Majesty wishes Your Excellency make openings right away marriage or Engagements between them and the princesses of Brazil; I must declare to Your Excellency. That, if I made express mention of the second son of Orleans, it is because the Duke has already shown himself willing to marry him with the young Queen of Portugal, even when she did not restore her Throne.

16 . In accordance with the principles set out in the articles of these instructions, Your Excellency is authorized by his majesty the Emperor our master to negotiate
and conclude a Convention or Treaty with the great powers of Europe, which will be submitted to the same august Lord for ratification.

Rio de Janeiro Palace, on April 23, 1830.
Miguel Calmon du Pin and Almeida"

Obviously the pod will be a Pedro I who reign longer and a Pedro II created as a monarch And Also that Charles X Continue to reign too , With Brazil moving forward with this foreign policy and having at least some successes, what would the reaction of Europe and the United States be like?
 
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Let's say that either Pedro I wins the Cisplatine War (keeping the monarchy in Uruguay) OR he stops being unfaithful to his wife (which helps keep him in power for a little longer).
Well, with Cisplatine still on Brazilian control, with Colonia and Montevidéu looking just over Buenos Aires, it would be really easy for Brazilian troops to "intervene" in the Argentine Civil War and establish a constitutional puppet monarchy there. From there, Pedro I could use the example to try to influence Hispanic republics to adopt monarchism or "stabilize" the civil wars in the region, so that by 1850 the overwhelming majority of South Americans live under a monarchy.
With the second POD (which doesn't prevent his Abdication but delays it), I can see Pedro I intervening in Uruguay with Franco-British assistance to stabilize the country under a monarchy. Following that, however, it could very well be that Pedro I's Abdication (which happens slightly later) stops these plans of 'monarchization'. Even if we assume that Pedro II holds the same foreign policy views of his father, it would be much more difficult for Brazil to justify an intervention into South American republics which would be much more consolidated and stronger by ~1840-1845
 
To win The Cisplatine war ,D.Pedro would really need to convince the congress to pay for the war,witch in titsel is a heel of a uphill battle.No money to the army ,no way to win the war. Than there is also thee problem that the congree was always afraid of a big army whose main loyalty is to the monarch,they were paranoid about that.
 
To win The Cisplatine war ,D.Pedro would really need to convince the congress to pay for the war,witch in titsel is a heel of a uphill battle.No money to the army ,no way to win the war. Than there is also thee problem that the congree was always afraid of a big army whose main loyalty is to the monarch,they were paranoid about that.
Winning the war is not really on the army, but on the navy, victories like Passo do Rosário/Ituzaingó weren't really that important to the outcome of the conflict. If Brasil wins the battle of Juncal or avoids it (eventually crushing the Argentinian navy), the blockade would be extended and the Argentinian army would be crushed because of lack of supplies, basically Uruguay is doomed in that case.
 
Let's say that either Pedro I wins the Cisplatine War (keeping the monarchy in Uruguay) OR he stops being unfaithful to his wife (which helps keep him in power for a little longer).
Well, with Cisplatine still on Brazilian control, with Colonia and Montevidéu looking just over Buenos Aires, it would be really easy for Brazilian troops to "intervene" in the Argentine Civil War and establish a constitutional puppet monarchy there. From there, Pedro I could use the example to try to influence Hispanic republics to adopt monarchism or "stabilize" the civil wars in the region, so that by 1850 the overwhelming majority of South Americans live under a monarchy.
With the second POD (which doesn't prevent his Abdication but delays it), I can see Pedro I intervening in Uruguay with Franco-British assistance to stabilize the country under a monarchy. Following that, however, it could very well be that Pedro I's Abdication (which happens slightly later) stops these plans of 'monarchization'. Even if we assume that Pedro II holds the same foreign policy views of his father, it would be much more difficult for Brazil to justify an intervention into South American republics which would be much more consolidated and stronger by ~1840-1845
I can tell you that in Peru it may be a bit different. Shortly after becoming independent there was a lot of issues and so congress had called Simon Bolivar to come and “bring order” to the new republic and had given him on a silver platter essentially the ability to become the first dictator there. To which he did, and his governing, policies and “constitucion vitalicia” (translated as for-life constitution) was so bad that it only lasted 50 days and he was kicked out promptly after. I think this may have a severe impact on how Peru views foreigners coming in to do anything, not to mention its already suffering quite a bit since it wouldve been chained to the humongous debt by Britain as well during this time period.

Alongside this, the time period was so chaotic in Peru that democratic elections weren’t even really a thing either. A lot of the presidents were caudillos who won through force and not really through getting elected, it was only later on in the 1870s that this changed and it wasn’t a pretty occurence what lead onto it. I can easily see any given caudillo trying to call themselves a king, to then getting demolished by an opposing caudillo and getting replaced just as easy as was said. The old form of governance which included ties to Spain, the viceroy, and the system of the 24 panacas was all gone and abolished (Simon Bolivar specifically took care to dissolve the panaca system). Only really people with self-interests would win out beyond this.
 
Even if Brazil managed to change some countries to constitutional monarchies I'd think most of them would end up getting overthrown pretty quickly, given the instability of the region especially if the monarchs were only there because a foriegn power pushed it, look what happened to Inturbide in Mexico
 
Pedro I couldn't run his own country, almost saw it disintegrate, and in the end, left before he got thrown out. He doesn't have it in him to organize the Spanish part of America, too.

There was monarchist sentiment in the Spanish sphere. The incentive to build monarchies needs to be home grown. Anything Brazil tries to do will be viewed with suspicion and resisted. I think you can get to monarchies in Spanish America, but it isn't being driven from Brazil.

IF Joao is more proactive, and Carlotta conveniently thrown overboard during the journey to Brazil, you might have a chance to influence things. Carlotta pretended she was the rightful leader of the Spanish colonial sphere and tried convincing the Spanish to accept her. She was absolutist, though, and no one trusted her, or Brazilian intentions. Then Joao decided to take Uruguay by force, again reinforcing the idea that Brazil can't be trusted. Perhaps instead, Joao establishes a Uruguayan Monarchy. He had a nephew, or cousin, (Gabriel's son, I think) who lived with, and married into, the Braganzas. He was sickly and died as a younger adult. Maybe he's healthier. IF both Uruguay and Brazil manage to do well, monarchy might be seen as good.
Brazil needs a whole new cast of characters, leading to a better start for Brazil. From there, they can influence the continent, but doubtful anything resembling Joao/Carlotta/ and their offspring are up to the task.
 
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