WI: Brazil Joins the Confederates in the American Civil War

[Thehappyvampire]

What if the Empire of Brazil joins the Confederate States of America against the United States of America during the American Civil War? Will this give the Confederates the boost it needs to win the war, or will it only slow down the inevitable American victory? Could this have an effect on the Uruguayan War?

 

[All Rounder]

What if the Empire of Brazil joins the Confederate States of America against the United States of America during the American Civil War? Will this give the Confederates the boost it needs to win the war, or will it only slow down the inevitable American victory?

I highly doubt they could offer anything beyond economic support, and even then it may only delay their fall by at least a month to the most being a year. So no it would do absolutely nothing in the long run except the U.S.A would have slightly worse relations with Brazil than OTL.

 

[GohanLSSJ2]

For Brazil to make the slightest difference in the USCW we'd need a VASTLY stronger Brazil. It's a Brazil wank indeed.

 

[Thehappyvampire]

I highly doubt they could offer anything beyond economic support, and even then it may only delay their fall by at least a month to the most being a year. So no it would do absolutely nothing in the long run except the U.S.A would have slightly worse relations with Brazil than OTL.

I'm sure Brazil has experienced officers and soldiers that could aid the Confederacy, having more manpower would be useful, right? Also, wouldn't knowing that there is a nation supporting them energize the Confederates to keep on fighting?

Will this increase anti-slavery sentiment in the United States?

 

[TFSmith121]

What if the Empire of Brazil joins the Confederate States of America against the United States of America during the American Civil War? Will this give the Confederates the boost it needs to win the war, or will it only slow down the inevitable American victory? Could this have an effect on the Uruguayan War?

Why? What possible gain does Brazil - which had, did, (and would) face its own internal issues arising from federalism - receive from any overt involvement in the Civil War?

 

[All Rounder]

I'm sure Brazil has experienced officers and soldiers that could aid the Confederacy, having more manpower would be useful, right? Also, wouldn't knowing that there is a nation supporting them energize the Confederates to keep on fighting?

Will this increase anti-slavery sentiment in the United States?

1. Maybe but still it wouldn't matter, depending on if a European power got involved on the Union side.
2. Well, it is hard to say, but I would say no.

All that I have to say is that if Brazil were just allied with the Confederacy, the Union would continue till they won. But if a power like France or Britain got involved on the Confederate side, the war would end in a southern victory as the U.S could fight a power like that on its own, but divided and drained, depending upon when Brazil joins, Abraham or Johnson would much rather surrender than risk losing even more men and land.

 

[TFSmith121]

1) I'm sure Brazil has experienced officers and soldiers that could aid the Confederacy, having more manpower would be useful, right? 2) Also, wouldn't knowing that there is a nation supporting them energize the Confederates to keep on fighting? 3) Will this increase anti-slavery sentiment in the United States?

1) The last significant fighting that Brazil saw before the Triple Alliance war in 1864-70 had been the last gasps of the republican movement in Pernambuco in 1848-49. Not surprisingly, it failed after about two months. Imperial Brazil, as demonstrated during the 1864-70 conflict, had difficulty deploying troops to its own borders in the 1860s, much less into neighboring countries. Sucessfully deploying troops elsewhere in the hemisphere, especially against the USN's opposition, was outside the realm of possibility.

2) No; it's immaterial.

3) Yes.

Brazil has nothing to gain and significant costs to even attempt this...

Best,

 

[Gonzaga]

I really can't see how or why it would happen. We had enough logistical and manpower problems to fight a war against our neighbours in 1865-1870. Even with the help of Uruguay and Argentina there were people who were concerned that we could be defeated by Paraguay! A war in North America would be impossible to accepted by the Army and the Parliament.

There is also the hard economic facts: we were making a profit out of the American Civil War. As the Southern cotton couldn't leave the harbours due to the Union blockade, we were trying to get some share of the former American cotton market (the production and export of cotton in Maranhão had a little boom at the time). Also, the USA was by that time already our greatest importer of coffee, mainly the North. So, why would we enter in a war to defend a competitor agaist our better commercial partner?

 

[ByzantineCaesar]

last significant fighting that Brazil saw before the Triple Alliance war in 1864-70 had been the last gasps of the republican movement in Pernambuco in 1848-49. Not surprisingly, it failed after about two months. Imperial Brazil, as demonstrated during the 1864-70 conflict, had difficulty deploying troops to its own borders in the 1860s, much less into neighboring countries. Sucessfully deploying troops elsewhere in the hemisphere, especially against the USN's opposition, was outside the realm of possibility.

Brazil also fought the Platine War, crushing Argentina.

I do agree they lack the power projection or motivation to actively participate in the ACW, but it's easier to sail Brazil's mighty fleet to North America than it is to deploy soldiers in the middle of South American virgin land.

 

[Arkenfolm]

If Brazil entered, the US Navy would probably cancel their blockade for a few months to deal with the Brazilian Navy. I don't know how strong Brazil's navy was, but I believe it was largely riverine and definitely wasn't as powerful as the dreadnought-race era Brazilian fleet was, so it might not even take away resources from blockading the South.

And then you realise that Brazil and the CSA share little in common besides their love of slavery and similar economic models. The Brazilian Army is on the cusp of a couple disasters in the early phases of the War of the Triple Alliance, so even if they can make it to the US they could be a bit of a drag on the South. Therefore, Brazil could only give material support, which would have to get past the blockade of the South. But how much material support does Brazil have--or want--to give? For what reason is Brazil supporting the South when they have nothing to gain?

For minimal gains to the Confederacy, Brazil has a lot to lose, though, which could affect them in the War of the Triple Alliance come 1864 and possibly even start tension at home.

 

[dandan_noodles]

I don't think overt alliance is very likely, though if they're receptive to the diplomats of a fellow slave republic, the south might get a chance to liquidate their cotton stores and get a quick infusion of cash before Lincoln issues the order of blockade following fort sumter. Brazilian Navy was already quite powerful, and the Union blockade was rather loose; potential to be a middleman for arms dealers. Obviously not enough for the South to win, but if they do, lays the foundation for a truly terrifying slave power bloc in central/south America.

 

[Admiral Brown]

Brazil also fought the Platine War, crushing Argentina.

I would not say they crushed us. If they had, Uruguay would still be Brazilian, as it was befire the war. Hadn't they been defeated at the battle of Ituzaingo by Argentinean and Urugayan forces, they would not have given up a territory that was theirs from 1820 to 1825...

EDIT: Sorry, my bad. I thought you were talking about the war in 1825-1826, the Cisplatine war, not the war in 1851-1852. It is about time we start using the same terminology in South America haha. The problem is our historians downplay Brazilian's part in Caseros Battle (1852), and tend to see this war as a mere Argentine Civil war between Rosas and his opponents. In truth, even Sarmiento recognizes Brazilian part was decisive...

 

[tonsofun]

One consequence of this could be more confederate supporters moving to Brazil afterwards. I can imagine if Brazil actively helps out then they will be seen in a very favourable light.

 

[Noblesse Oblige]

And then you realise that Brazil and the CSA share little in common besides their love of slavery and similar economic models. The Brazilian Army is on the cusp of a couple disasters in the early phases of the War of the Triple Alliance, so even if they can make it to the US they could be a bit of a drag on the South. Therefore, Brazil could only give material support, which would have to get past the blockade of the South. But how much material support does Brazil have--or want--to give? For what reason is Brazil supporting the South when they have nothing to gain?

And even then, that common feature was already drifting further away, as the abolitionist movement was beginning around this time. While it wouldn't gain steam until the following decade, Brazil was already starting to slowly shift away from slavery.

On a geopolitical aspect, Brazil had no reason to involve itself in the ACW, for many of the aforementioned reasons, but also because it had absolutely no interests beyond South America in general, and the La Plata River Basin Region in particular (that in itself would not change until the dreadnaught-race era.

To put simply, it's not that they couldn't intervene, it's more that they just didn't care, nor did they want to care.

 

[TFSmith121]

Brazil also fought the Platine War, crushing Argentina.

I do agree they lack the power projection or motivation to actively participate in the ACW, but it's easier to sail Brazil's mighty fleet to North America than it is to deploy soldiers in the middle of South American virgin land.

Okay, fair point, but the Platine War (1851-52) was also not exactly comparable to an intercontinental war .... And the Triple Alliance War took what looks like pretty close to the limits of mobilization, two allies, and four years of fighting, so doesn't seem to minimize the point.

Geography is a thing.

Best,

 

[The Tai-Pan]

What would they be fighting for, exactly?

 

[GrinningSatyr]

I think the more useful line of discussion for forums about alternate history might be:

"In what ways would Brazil's history need to be changed so that this can happen?"

Can a (small?) POD a century (or however long— decades?) beforehand change *Brazil enough that it would want to and could intervene in a recognizable US *Civil War?

What changes are necessary and how would you go about achieving them?

Edit: spelling

 

[Grimbald]

What do the Yanks take from Brazil after it is over?

 

[Lampiao]

What would they be fighting for, exactly?

As a matter of fact, the longer the war is, the better for Brazil (and Egypt, India and all countries capable of growing cotton). Besides that, there's absolutely no diplomic reason for them to fight a foreign war in another hemisphere; by the late 19th century, slavery as an institution in Brazil was seen just as a necessary evil and the idea to carve a "slaveholder solidarity" seems quite far-fetched to me. To have troops deployed in, let's say, Crimea or in French Mexico would be unlikely, but not impossible. But the ACW? Nah...

 

[Thanksforallthefish]

I am not sure about the abolitionist history of Brazil, but from little that what I know, slavery was already on their last legs there (it wasn't part of a national ethos like in the CSA definitively was) Even if they cared enough to intervene (that would need a POD all of its own) the only result I can see of Brazil intervening is:

• A few battles MIGHT change in favor of the CSA, but it might win them days, months at best.
• The Brazilian economy and military would be overstretched after a war with one of their main trading partners, and might result on internal conflict when the war ends. The Triple Alliance War ended with a massive social crisis in Brazil, even if they won it decissively, that eventually ended the Empire
• The abolitionist movement might even be helped in Brazil. Why should the children of Brazilian mothers fight in a war to keep other people in chains, when even the morality of their own slavery is in question?

Overall it would result in a ACW mostly like OTL, with a few different battles and probably a living Lincoln due to butterflies.

However, the effects in South America would be beyond interesting. A Brazil intervening in the ACW, as unlikely as it is, would mean a Brazil that would act differently in KEY EVENTS in South America, namely the Colorado War, the Paraguayan War, and the last battles of the Argentine Civil Wars (while Brazil was not explicitly involved, butterflies might easily balance one side over other). This would have far reaching conseuquences in the history of the continent. Not to mention that the POD necessary to make Brazil intervene in the ACW would need a very deep backstory.

Now THAT would be an interesting TL. But Nothing Ever Happens In South America, amirite?