WI: Bonar Law loses his seat in the 1922 General Election?

The Conservatives got a majority in the 1922 general election but PM Bonar Law came rather close to losing his own seat of Glasgow Central, with a massive swing against him (and an ultimate majority of 8%). What if Edward Mitchell does a bit better and the PM narrowly loses his seat? Unlike with Balfour the Conservatives are still in power so they need to pick a new PM pronto. Is it going to be Stanley Baldwin (who's been Chancellor of the Exchequer for less than a month and before that only President of the Board of Trade) or Lurd Curzon (who is a peer and widely disliked), or some other dark horse?

Ultimately is Bonar Law going to be parachuted in for Portsmouth South or some other by-election (in which case there's been a rather weird monthly limbo period) - or is the Baldwin or Curzon government going to stay in office til presumably 1927 (it makes a little less sense to call a second election for a mandate if they've been in power ever since the first election) - and who would say Baldwin's hypothetical Chancellor of the Exchequer (and successor?) be, since Neville Chamberlain still hasn't risen nearly high enough in late 1922.
 
From what little I know about British politics, I can see Stanley Baldwin becoming PM and staying there. But I welcome possible corrections.
 
Top