WI - Australia/NZ Assigned Malaya Defense

[TFSmith121]

Take a look at what the RAAF and RNZAF were actually

I've had a look at their Wikipaedia biographies.

Joseph Lyons, Prime Minister of Australia 1932-39, was a pacifist according to his entry, but it also said this:

E.g. in 1934 the Australian Government authorised the first of several RAAF expansion schemes, which is also when the British Government authorised the first RAF expansion scheme. At he outbreak of WWII the RAAF actually had 12 squadrons and was working up to a strength of 19 squadrons by the middle of 1941, but the long-term goal approved in June 1939 was for a strength of 32 squadrons. Source: The Air Forces of the World by William Green and John Fricker, published 1958.

I'm proposing increasing spending on the RAAF-only which would take place in the period 1934-39 so that it would have 18 squadrons in September 1939 with the goal of building up to a force of 32 squadrons by the middle of 1941.

George Forbes was Prime Minister of New Zealand from May 1930 to December 1935. It didn't say what his opinions on Japan and the rise of Hitler were so I can't speculate on how he would have reacted if he had been asked for one or two RNZAF squadrons for Singapore in 1934-35.

On the other hand according to Wikipaedia Michael Joseph Savage who succeeded Lyons as Prime Minister and held the position until May 1940...

That suggests that he might have responded positively if he was asked to provide one or two RNZAF squadrons for the defence of Singapore.

Take a look at what the RAAF and RNZAF actually had in terms of operational and deployable units at home before - say - 1940...

Both forces were, essentially, commands for administering EATS until 1941, at which point a small number of operational squadrons began to appear in the Pacific, equipped almost entirely with Lend-Lease material or second-line British designs.

As it was, the RAF in Malaya included RAAF and RNZAF squadrons, equipped with
(for example) Brewster Buffalos, which other than dying gallantly, were unable of doing a whole lot against the IJNAF and IJAAF ...

It took until 1942-43, and the L-L.spigots being wide open, for the RAAF and RNZAF to be able to sustain any sort of combat air operations in the Pacific.

The point being is that despite the potential threat of the Japanese, until they moved into French Indochina in 1940-41, the British, Australians, and New Zealanders did not really start any sort of Pacific build-up, and at that point it was too late - certainly for Malaya.

The Japanese were able to commit and sustain something like 12 divisions for the initial offensives in 1941-42; the British managed about four in Malaya (8th Aus., 9th Ind., 11th Ind., 18th British) and two in Burma (1st Burma and 17th Ind.); if the three AIF divisions and the 2nd NZ that were in the Middle East at this point are still there, that's still 2-1 odds, and the Japanese had command of the sea and air.

If the Australians and New Zealanders are all in the Pacific, it is unlikely they are equipped to the scale they were in the Med, and it's an open question where they or the British and Indian formations are actually deployed and can be sustained.

Best,

 

[Errolwi]

Take a look at what the RAAF and RNZAF actually had in terms of operational and deployable units at home before - say - 1940...

Both forces were, essentially, commands for administering EATS until 1941, at which point a small number of operational squadrons began to appear in the Pacific, equipped almost entirely with Lend-Lease material or second-line British designs.
...

I'll just mention the squadron of Wellingtons for the RNZAF, ordered pre-war, which were gifted to the RAF in 1939. This gift is why the poor buggers of the RNZAF GR squadrons were hunting for German raiders in bomb-armed Vincents in 1940. Luckily for them they didn't have the range to find them.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vickers_Vildebeest
Also, if the RNZAF is larger than OTL, then a few hundred NZ aircrew aren't in RAF service in the UK come 1940 (the RAF was actively recruiting the in NZ in the late 1930's, with the NZ Govt's support). Presumably replaced with less promising aircrew candidates from elsewhere.

I agree with your points, however.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

And there's already a Richmond there...

Best,

As a bit of trivia, Richmond was one of the proposed names for the F-111K. The reasons for this were two fold. That is:

1) It continued the tradition of naming RAF bombers after towns in the UK and Commonwealth.
2) There were towns named Richmond in Australia and USA the other operators of the F-111.

 

[Julius Vogel]

The Dominion of Australasia? The (historical) Commonwealth, New Zealand, and most of Melanesia and Polynesia?

What could generate that? A Wilhelmine take-over of the NEI in the late Nineteenth Century?

If there was such a state in - say - 1900 (or earlier?), does the Anglo-Japanese alliance come into being? Or do the Japanese go with a German alliance?

The RAN being built up as a counter to (presumably) the German, Japanese, Russian, and US Pacific fleets makes for an interesting 20th Century.

Best,

My favourite POD for Australasia is a proper Russian Scare. IOTL, we experienced a few, which was a major driver for the development of local militia, coastal fortifications and acquisition of small naval defence ships. Now if one of those Scares actually escalated into something hot, even if not part of a wider war between Russia and GB, then overt Australasian paranoia would have something to actually latch onto.

These Russian scares are the reason why my small rural home town has the remains of a coastal fort and battery, despite being many thousands of kilometres from any Russian or indeed German port.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

Take a look at what the RAAF and RNZAF actually had in terms of operational and deployable units at home before - say - 1940...

Both forces were, essentially, commands for administering EATS until 1941, at which point a small number of operational squadrons began to appear in the Pacific, equipped almost entirely with Lend-Lease material or second-line British designs.

As it was, the RAF in Malaya included RAAF and RNZAF squadrons, equipped with
(for example) Brewster Buffalos, which other than dying gallantly, were unable of doing a whole lot against the IJNAF and IJAAF ...

It took until 1942-43, and the L-L.spigots being wide open, for the RAAF and RNZAF to be able to sustain any sort of combat air operations in the Pacific.

The point being is that despite the potential threat of the Japanese, until they moved into French Indochina in 1940-41, the British, Australians, and New Zealanders did not really start any sort of Pacific build-up, and at that point it was too late - certainly for Malaya.

The Japanese were able to commit and sustain something like 12 divisions for the initial offensives in 1941-42; the British managed about four in Malaya (8th Aus., 9th Ind., 11th Ind., 18th British) and two in Burma (1st Burma and 17th Ind.); if the three AIF divisions and the 2nd NZ that were in the Middle East at this point are still there, that's still 2-1 odds, and the Japanese had command of the sea and air.

If the Australians and New Zealanders are all in the Pacific, it is unlikely they are equipped to the scale they were in the Med, and it's an open question where they or the British and Indian formations are actually deployed and can be sustained.

Best,

I already knew. I also know that the Australian Government put 6 of the 12 RAAF squadrons that existed in September 1939 at the disposal of the RAF, which was unable to accept the offer for logistical reasons.

Although I'm advocating more money being spent on the RAAF and RNZAF over 1934-39 I had a skim through the official history of the RAN in WWII last night (the Australian War Memorial website has an on line copy). According to that during the late 1930s the Australian Government did think about buying a battleship, but decided that the disadvantages outweighed the advantages.

 

[Amelikite]

My favourite POD for Australasia is a proper Russian Scare. IOTL, we experienced a few, which was a major driver for the development of local militia, coastal fortifications and acquisition of small naval defence ships. Now if one of those Scares actually escalated into something hot, even if not part of a wider war between Russia and GB, then overt Australasian paranoia would have something to actually latch onto.

These Russian scares are the reason why my small rural home town has the remains of a coastal fort and battery, despite being many thousands of kilometres from any Russian or indeed German port.

New Zealand has had few problems co-operating militarily with Australia, without feeling the need to get into bed with them.

 

[Errolwi]

...
These Russian scares are the reason why my small rural home town has the remains of a coastal fort and battery, despite being many thousands of kilometres from any Russian or indeed German port.

I finally got to Stoney Batter last summer (Waiheke Island in Auckland's Hauraki Gulf). I've been to couple of the sites around Wellington too. Also North Head (Waitemata) before H&S got to it!

At least they kept the raiders over the horizon.

 

[Julius Vogel]

New Zealand has had few problems co-operating militarily with Australia, without feeling the need to get into bed with them.

Right?

During the Russian Scares, there was no Australia, as the federation happened several decades later.

This is why I like it as a POD, because all of the Australasian colonies are in their formative stages and thus potentially able to moved onto a different track. It also bears noting that the major cities and towns of the colonies were largely coastal and intimately linked to each other economically. If you ever get a chance to read historic papers from the era, you might be surprised just how often they refer to what is happening in other colonies. The NZ papers of the era especially report regularly on happenings in Sydney and Melbourne, far more than they do in the present day. I would imagine part of that is to do with the importance of coastal shipping and reporters making a point of noting who was in port and of course, talking to the crew about what news they'd picked up on their circuits.

 

[Amelikite]

Right?

During the Russian Scares, there was no Australia, as the federation happened several decades later.

This is why I like it as a POD, because all of the Australasian colonies are in their formative stages and thus potentially able to moved onto a different track. It also bears noting that the major cities and towns of the colonies were largely coastal and intimately linked to each other economically. If you ever get a chance to read historic papers from the era, you might be surprised just how often they refer to what is happening in other colonies. The NZ papers of the era especially report regularly on happenings in Sydney and Melbourne, far more than they do in the present day. I would imagine part of that is to do with the importance of coastal shipping and reporters making a point of noting who was in port and of course, talking to the crew about what news they'd picked up on their circuits.

Yes you are right that the federation had not occurred, my Great great grandfather, was at the federation conference. However without being to concerned about whether Australian was yet united which would not have much of an impact, on the possibility of Australia becoming an object of attack.
I'm fairly confident that New Zealand would pay attention if Australia came under attack and do what it could to provide assistance.
However given New Zealand and Australia's history I think both would prefer too look to a stronger regional power with a Navy, than simply to rely on each other.
Non of this means, that the arguments for New Zealand joining the Federation, become more compelling.

 

[Admiral Beez]

My favourite is the Valentine Tank being slated for production in 1939 (some sources claim as early as 38) and not 1941 as per OTL

Now rather than Australia trying to make its own home grown tank design ie the Sentinal - it instead starts to build the already established Valentine in much the same way as Canada did and due to the earlier adoption of the design both nations have factories up and running by mid 41

If we can add Canadian tankers to the ANZAC party we can very easily get Valentines to Malaya in time, though it will be very tight.

Here's a pic from Nov. 1941 of the first batch of sixty-odd Canadian-made Valentine tanks to ship to Russia. Instead, let's get these produced in August and shipped via rail to Vancouver and then via merchant ship to Singapore, arriving end of October. According to http://www.sea-distances.org/ Vancouver to Singapore at 10 knots takes just under 30 days. If 12 knots can be done, the voyage is now less than 25 days.

Ship them also with Colonel Worthington and crews from the Canadian Armoured Corps (plus the two Canadian regiments sent to HK), https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/F._F._Worthington.

Fifty or sixty Valentines won't guarantee a win, the IJA for example deployed over 200 of their tanks (albeit highly inferior to the Valentine). Also the Valentine's two man turret (see below pic, where commander has to load the gun) and lack of a HE shell and lack of hull mg would be frustrating to the anti-infantry actions, though the coaxial 7.92 Besa MG would be a true killer vs. bicycle or foot infantry.

Some logistical challenges may be felt, as the Canadian Valentines used US-sourced diesel engines and unusual mg calibre, with supply of fuel, ammunition and more likely parts causing some difficulties. However one can imagine the good feelings timely arrival of Valentines and their crew would convey to the garrison.

However, all this is useless if the tanks don't arrive on time, as seen at http://1942malaya.blogspot.ca/2009/07/tank-squadron-that-came-too-late.html Maybe that's a good ATH discussion - have these tanks arrive two months earlier.

 

[Amelikite]

The Japanese were able to commit and sustain something like 12 divisions for the initial offensives in 1941-42; the British managed about four in Malaya (8th Aus., 9th Ind., 11th Ind., 18th British) and two in Burma (1st Burma and 17th Ind.); if the three AIF divisions and the 2nd NZ that were in the Middle East at this point are still there, that's still 2-1 odds, and the Japanese had command of the sea and air.



Best,

I note you claim that 12 Japanese divisions as being involved in the Malaya campaign, I can only conclude that you mean that 12 divisions were involved in Malaya because you go on to cite the odds of the forces arrayed against one another. it would seem unlikely that you would be including forces not in Malaya as lined up against the Malaya defenders.
The combined fleet site lists no more than three divisions plus some extras, (engineers ) as invading Malaya, Alternatively the wikipedia website list 3 divisions the Imperial Guards, the 5th infantry and the 18th infantry division plus artillery tanks and engineers. Even if we add Burma in and fight them as one campaign (they weren't) that stilll only adds 1 division plus a regimental group or 2 reduced divisions.
In addition the combined fleet website claims there was only the shipping to move 11 divisions around the Pacific. Still whats a division between friends?
By my count you seem to have got 7 more Japanese divisions into Malaya than anyone else has, How can we account for this?
I also suspect that since the British were inclined to arm Indian units with older and less effective weapons, an Indian unit may not be as effective as an Australian or New Zealand one.

 

[TFSmith121]

Sure - and give credit to the NZG to see the need

I'll just mention the squadron of Wellingtons for the RNZAF, ordered pre-war, which were gifted to the RAF in 1939. This gift is why the poor buggers of the RNZAF GR squadrons were hunting for German raiders in bomb-armed Vincents in 1940. Luckily for them they didn't have the range to find them.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vickers_Vildebeest
Also, if the RNZAF is larger than OTL, then a few hundred NZ aircrew aren't in RAF service in the UK come 1940 (the RAF was actively recruiting the in NZ in the late 1930's, with the NZ Govt's support). Presumably replaced with less promising aircrew candidates from elsewhere.

I agree with your points, however.

Sure - and give credit to the NZG to see the need in the ETO was as it was in 1939-40.

Of course, to the RNZAF crews flying Singapore flying boats and Vildebeests, Vincents, and the like in 1942, it probably wasn't very comforting.

Obviously there are and were very real issues in trying to coordinate the defense procurement of two different nations, but it does seem that NZ investment into - say - CAC in return for a share of the Wacketts and Wirraways, etc might have given the RNZAF some slightly more capable a/c in hand for operations in 1940-41 than what they had; the Tiger Moths et al look like refugees from 1918 in comparison.

The Hurricane seems like a design that could have been produced in reasonable numbers in Australia in the late 1930s, with costs and production shared with NZ; modern maritime patrol, the other obvious need, is tougher (the Anson was nothing spectacular, and the Sunderland was too much), but an "early" joint procurement of PBYs seems like an obvious answer - the aircraft went into service in the US in 1937, and the Australians and Canadians both got them as early as 1941, with Canadian-built versions going into service the same year.

Granted, Hurricanes and Catalina flying boats do not an air force make, but along with Wacketts and Wirraways, they are certainly something to build on, and more effective - generally - than what the Australians and New Zealanders had at home in (say) 1940-41.

Best,

 

[TFSmith121]

Just because you're paranoid...

As a bit of trivia, Richmond was one of the proposed names for the F-111K. The reasons for this were two fold. That is:

1) It continued the tradition of naming RAF bombers after towns in the UK and Commonwealth.
2) There were towns named Richmond in Australia and USA the other operators of the F-111.

My favourite POD for Australasia is a proper Russian Scare. IOTL, we experienced a few, which was a major driver for the development of local militia, coastal fortifications and acquisition of small naval defence ships. Now if one of those Scares actually escalated into something hot, even if not part of a wider war between Russia and GB, then overt Australasian paranoia would have something to actually latch onto.

These Russian scares are the reason why my small rural home town has the remains of a coastal fort and battery, despite being many thousands of kilometres from any Russian or indeed German port.

Just because you're paranoid...

Things to think about for BROS-world...

Best,

 

[Admiral Beez]

The Hurricane seems like a design that could have been produced in reasonable numbers in Australia in the late 1930s, with costs and production shared with NZ; modern maritime patrol, the other obvious need, is tougher (the Anson was nothing spectacular, and the Sunderland was too much), but an "early" joint procurement of PBYs seems like an obvious answer - the aircraft went into service in the US in 1937, and the Australians and Canadians both got them as early as 1941, with Canadian-built versions going into service the same year,

Here's the first Canadian-built Hurricane in Jan 1940.

 

[TFSmith121]

Problem with a capital ship, of course, it that

I already knew. I also know that the Australian Government put 6 of the 12 RAAF squadrons that existed in September 1939 at the disposal of the RAF, which was unable to accept the offer for logistical reasons.

Although I'm advocating more money being spent on the RAAF and RNZAF over 1934-39 I had a skim through the official history of the RAN in WWII last night (the Australian War Memorial website has an on line copy). According to that during the late 1930s the Australian Government did think about buying a battleship, but decided that the disadvantages outweighed the advantages.

Problem with a capital ship, of course, it that before the building holiday expires in 1936, it can't be done, and afterwards, the British yards and plants that provide the armor, weapons, and powerplant are pretty much going all out as it is...

Best,

 

[TFSmith121]

Wasn't transportation the problem with the Canadian bren gun carriers

If we can add Canadian tankers to the ANZAC party we can very easily get Valentines to Malaya in time, though it will be very tight.

Here's a pic from Nov. 1941 of the first batch of sixty-odd Canadian-made Valentine tanks to ship to Russia. Instead, let's get these produced in August and shipped via rail to Vancouver and then via merchant ship to Singapore, arriving end of October. According to http://www.sea-distances.org/ Vancouver to Singapore at 10 knots takes just under 30 days. If 12 knots can be done, the voyage is now less than 25 days.

Wasn't transportation the problem with the Canadian bren gun carriers allocated to the two battalions that historically went to Hong Kong? They ended up in Manila, IIRC, because that's as far as the ships could make it...

I'm sure the American tankers in the PI (192nd and 194th Tank Battalions) would appreciate the Valentines, but unless they come with guns and ammunition, they'd basically end up as artillery tractors...

Best,

 

[TFSmith121]

No, it was ~12 IJA divisions in the

I note you claim that 12 Japanese divisions as being involved in the Malaya campaign, I can only conclude that you mean that 12 divisions were involved in Malaya because you go on to cite the odds of the forces arrayed against one another. it would seem unlikely that you would be including forces not in Malaya as lined up against the Malaya defenders.
The combined fleet site lists no more than three divisions plus some extras, (engineers ) as invading Malaya, Alternatively the wikipedia website list 3 divisions the Imperial Guards, the 5th infantry and the 18th infantry division plus artillery tanks and engineers. Even if we add Burma in and fight them as one campaign (they weren't) that stilll only adds 1 division plus a regimental group or 2 reduced divisions.
In addition the combined fleet website claims there was only the shipping to move 11 divisions around the Pacific. Still whats a division between friends?
By my count you seem to have got 7 more Japanese divisions into Malaya than anyone else has, How can we account for this?
I also suspect that since the British were inclined to arm Indian units with older and less effective weapons, an Indian unit may not be as effective as an Australian or New Zealand one.

No, it was ~12 IJA divisions, as in "something like 12 divisions for the initial offensives in 1941-42" meaning ALL the Japanese offensives - 14th, 15th, 16th, and 25th armies, split between (historically) the PI, NEI, Malaya, and Burma...plus the various separate brigades/regiments/etc. in all of the above, and the South Seas Detachment (Guam, New Britain, etc.)

The point being that the Japanese had ~12 division equivalents capable of being deployed and sustained on the offensive in December, 1941 to May, 1942; in roughly the same period, the total number of British/ Commonwealth divisions deployed in the Pacific/ SEAC/ etc theaters (meaning Malaya and Burma) amounted to six divisions, of which the British 18th Division arrived in Malaya essentially in time to surrender and the 1st Burma Division was, essentially, non-deployable outside of Burma.

Hence, 2-1 odds and the Japanese had control of the sea and air; more infantry divisions aren't going to overcome that...

As far as equipment goes, by 1941-42, the British Army, IA, and AIF/AMF etc are all equipped with (essentially) the same (or comparable) small arms and artillery, for good or ill.

Best,

 

[TFSmith121]

Okay - about the same time as the Wirraway and Wackett

Here's the first Canadian-built Hurricane in Jan 1940.

Okay - about the same time as the Wirraway and Wackett; more than 750 Wirraways and 200 Wacketts were manufactured, with production models of the Wirraway as early as July, 1939 ... radial engines, rather than inline, however, and that's probably the biggest difference.

Still, seems like a line in Australia could have been done.

Best,

 

[La Rouge Beret]

Generally speaking both Australia and NZ are in a bind so to speak. Their industrial bases are under developed and their political leadership had no desire to increase spending on military capability. So a POD needs to be identified that results in bi partisanship support for a larger industrial base and a larger standing military. Which more than likely would result in a larger RAAF, RAN and a slightly larger Regular Army to act as a building block for expansion in the event of war.

So in that case Hurricanes would be a good start and possibly using ship building for job creation. But that would require the Australian and New Zealand governments to become Keynesians which is difficult, but not impossible.

As other posters have touched upon all three services are in transition with regards to their leadership. Either being too old or too junior the RAN being a good example with their excellent wartime leaders of Collins, Farncomb, Darling and Walker being too inexperienced for more senior roles.

Here are two links regarding possible PODs for a stronger RAN during WW 2 and for the RAN retaining a submarine arm during WW 2.

 

[Dilvish]

In this scenario, what happens if the Malayan campaign has a similar result to OTL? This scenario has a larger proportion of the Australian and NZ armies assigned to Malaya and Singapore than in OTL. (how much larger?) How would Australia and New Zealand be affected by this larger loss?