WI Archduke Matthias killed in 1579?

Matthias, younger son of Maximilian II future HRE himself, was invited to the Netherlands in 1578 by a small moderate party in hopes of solving the religious and political unrest that had rocked the Spanish possessions. He arrived without the knowledge or consent of his uncle, Philip II of Spain and his position as 'governor' quickly deteriorated in the end accomplishing nothing other than to embarrass himself and alienate the rest of his family. Apparently in 1579 he withdrew from Brussels to Antwerp and on May 28th he participated in an Ascension Day procession. Tensions in the city were high and the Catholics were advised against a major procession but proceeded anyways. Radical protestants attacked and the procession including Matthias was forced to seek shelter. William of Orange, who was also present, was able to rally some forces to disperse the attackers and save the Catholics, two of whom died. So what if things got a little more out of hand, maybe William isn't able to intervene quickly enough. More Catholics are killed and Matthias sustains a fatal wound, dying that day or shortly after.

This would be after the Unions of Utrecht and Arras, and after the death of Don Juan and the Duke of Parma's assumed control of the Spanish forces but it would be before the Act of Abjuration. Would the death of an Archduke, one who arrived ostensibly to moderate the Spanish position and bring peace, discredit the rebels? Or the Protestants in general, given the religious dimension of the attack? Would that make the French or English leery of intervening to aid the rebels? It's pretty close to a regicide and monarchs were generally pretty averse to supporting a regicide even against an enemy. I imagine in Madrid there will be a lot of crocodile tears shed for Matthias. The Spanish were quite upset by his appearance in Brussels but I imagine he'd quickly be treated as poor martyr and mourned deeply and publicly by the Spanish court but could they use it to any practical advantage.

Obviously there's also some major impacts down the road in Austria if Matthias isn't around though I think it's hard to speculate there with so much potentially changing in the Netherlands.
 
I wonder if Matthias' premature death could convince emperor Rudolf II to marry?

That's a good point. Though Rudolf is always hard to pin down. In one account of Matthias' Netherlands adventure it was stated that Rudolf knew before had but then when Philip complained angrily he pleaded ignorance. I'm not sure how he'd play things if Matthias dies.

I do wonder if the death of a brother, even one with whom he wasn't particularly close, could upset Rudolf's mental health earlier than it declined OTL. For instance if he internalized feelings of guilt or responsibility for not stopping his brother from going if he did in fact know about Matthias' plans and that sent him into one of his deep depressions earlier than their OTL onset.
 
Orange himself was already busy to try to get Anjou to the Netherlands. Although he hadn't abandoned Matthias completely. But in the negotiations in Cologne in 1579 Matthias was not the trump card Orange and the moderates had hoped he would be. In general he was also not the binding factor for the provinces that had signed the pacification of Gent. In 1580 the split within the rebel estates was already clear for the whole world. Orange tried to save what could be saved, but he wasn't very succesfull. Disaster after disaster (and for his policy the Union of Utrecht was also a failure) followed him in this period. He couldn't stop the spiralling events that led to more and more radicalisation. So, i actually think this would be just another of such events.
He will though have to let his propagandamachine work hard to make a distance between this act and the revolt of the Estates in the eyes of the foreign courts, but as described i don't think this is impossible. This isn't a Black Hand operation.
 
My understanding was that Matthias was invited in by Aerschot who began negotiating with him immediately after the Pacification of Ghent. Lazarus Schwendi at the Imperial court (of the more moderate generation that ruled under Maximilian) supported the idea and encouraged Matthias to go but Orange was actually not aware of the plan before hand. And he largely ignored Matthias on his arrival since he was already eyeing Alencon. Then Don Juan's military success after Gembloux wrecked Aerschot's plans and things fell further apart at Cologne. So I wasn't thinking of it as any kind of betrayal by Orange or certainly not as a political assassination but Matthias' death would still seem to come at a critical moment no? It literally kills Aerschot's moderate party at the same time the Protestants are refusing compromise at Cologne allowing Farnese to more rapidly gain ground as shocked Catholics distance themselves from protestants in the Netherlands. Or is that basically what happened OTL anyways?

I guess things are so polarized that each side just puts out a propaganda of their own version of events, the Spanish that Matthias was an emissary of Peace martyred by vicious army of heretic rebels, and the protestants that he was a wreckless adventurer who had an unfortunately run in with an unruly gang. So if Aerschot's party was already weakening maybe Matthias' death doesn't have much impact? Just a minor footnote to the history of the Netherlands?
 
My understanding was that Matthias was invited in by Aerschot who began negotiating with him immediately after the Pacification of Ghent. Lazarus Schwendi at the Imperial court (of the more moderate generation that ruled under Maximilian) supported the idea and encouraged Matthias to go but Orange was actually not aware of the plan before hand. And he largely ignored Matthias on his arrival since he was already eyeing Alencon. Then Don Juan's military success after Gembloux wrecked Aerschot's plans and things fell further apart at Cologne. So I wasn't thinking of it as any kind of betrayal by Orange or certainly not as a political assassination but Matthias' death would still seem to come at a critical moment no? It literally kills Aerschot's moderate party at the same time the Protestants are refusing compromise at Cologne allowing Farnese to more rapidly gain ground as shocked Catholics distance themselves from protestants in the Netherlands. Or is that basically what happened OTL anyways?
Yes, your understanding of Matthias coming to the Netherlands is quite correct, except for the ignoring part. Though invited by a rival, Orange was quick in using the inexperience of Matthias for his own purposes. He and not Aerschot, who himself had just been arrested in Gent, was present at the arrival of Matthias in Brussel. He led the negotjation between Matthias and the Estates general and thereby dictated the conditions at the same time he secured the rulling of the province of Brabant for himself. This was the typical diplomatic flexibility of William the silent, and he totally outmanouvered his opponent.
It is sometimes difficult to see the game he was playing, but i personally think that he wanted to hold open as much possibilities as possible. Playing chess on several boards at once. The main goals were keeping the provinces united against Spain and to angle for as much foreign support as possible. That's why he could support Matthias and at the same time negotiate for support with Anjou. After Cologne it became clear that mediation from the Emperor led nowhere and possible support from that side would be a pipedream. So Matthias was not usefull for that anymore. At the same time the two unions showed that Matthias wasn't usefull for bridging the growing internal divide and keeping catholics like Aerschot, who himself had been neutralized by his forced resignation as stadtholder of Flanders, into the fold. So in 1580 Matthias compared to Anjou had really no value anymore, except for his pliability. But i think the foreign support was more on Oranges mind at that time.
I think you are correct in seeing Matthias death working as a catalyst for what was already happening. Certain catholic cities and nobles certainly would be more inclined to desert the rebel ranks and Parma's job would be easier.
I guess things are so polarized that each side just puts out a propaganda of their own version of events, the Spanish that Matthias was an emissary of Peace martyred by vicious army of heretic rebels, and the protestants that he was a wreckless adventurer who had an unfortunately run in with an unruly gang. So if Aerschot's party was already weakening maybe Matthias' death doesn't have much impact? Just a minor footnote to the history of the Netherlands
Yes, because this is after the Unions and after Cologne, i think it wil be a footnote.
 
Top