WI: Another different treaty of Utrecht (1713)

[Janprimus]

What if the treaty of Utrecht was slightly different?
Philip V still gains 'Spain' and the Spanish colonies and the British and the Dutch also keep their OTL gains.
However there are some changes: Austria gets the Southern now Austrian Netherlands and the kingdoms of Sicily and Naples; and Savoy gets (the less prestigious) kingdom of Sardinia and the duchy of Milan.
Would this have any implications?

 

[Janprimus]

For instance will Savoy be able to keep all these new territories or will they still loose a part of it (most likely now Milan) under a Quadruple Alliance scenario like IOTL?

 

[Antipater]

Glad to see that I'm not the only one interested in discussing the War of Spanish succession (shameless plug for thread I started last night)

Anyway, what you are (mostly) describing is the situation that had occured in OTL by 1720 by the Treaty of the Hague. The House of Savoy was forced to trade Sicily for Sadinia by its erstwhile Allies, in no small part because Victor Amadeus II was viewed as a snake by all involved.

I am not sure what effect giving Sicily to Austria seven years earlier would have. The Hapsbourgs lost the two sicilies to the Spanish Bourbons after the War of Polish Succession, and I don't think another seven years to rule over Sicily would really change that.

Savoy might be in better shape if they didn't waste their resources trying to establish their rule over Sicily, and instead could have immediately turned their attention to integrating Sardinia into the Kingdom. Plus, adding the Duchy of Milan would make the Dukes of Savoy a much stronger power in Northern Italy, though the Duchies would not be continguous, inviting conflict with Genoa. Overall I think this new power would make Savoy more likely to be drawn into subsequent Wars between Austria and France, though they might stay out of the war of Polish Sucession (since they entered that war to take Milan, which they failed to hold after the peace). Overall, I think the acension of Savoy from a medium power to a regional power would be a mixed blessing for Savoy, and they would have a very hard time holding onto their newly acquired territory even before the French Revolution.

 

[Antipater]

A more interesting alternate Treaty of Utrecht, in my opinion, would be one in which the Dutch Republic somehow ends up with the Spanish Netherlands. This could have come about if the Hapsbourgs were forced out of the war in the early stage by the Franco-Bavarian alliance, or perhaps if there was a complete falling out between the Allies in the later stages of the war.

 

[Janprimus]

Glad to see that I'm not the only one interested in discussing the War of Spanish succession (shameless plug for thread I started last night)

Anyway, what you are (mostly) describing is the situation that had occured in OTL by 1720 by the Treaty of the Hague. The House of Savoy was forced to trade Sicily for Sadinia by its erstwhile Allies, in no small part because Victor Amadeus II was viewed as a snake by all involved.

I am not sure what effect giving Sicily to Austria seven years earlier would have. The Hapsbourgs lost the two sicilies to the Spanish Bourbons after the War of Polish Succession, and I don't think another seven years to rule over Sicily would really change that.

Savoy might be in better shape if they didn't waste their resources trying to establish their rule over Sicily, and instead could have immediately turned their attention to integrating Sardinia into the Kingdom. Plus, adding the Duchy of Milan would make the Dukes of Savoy a much stronger power in Northern Italy, though the Duchies would not be continguous, inviting conflict with Genoa. Overall I think this new power would make Savoy more likely to be drawn into subsequent Wars between Austria and France, though they might stay out of the war of Polish Sucession (since they entered that war to take Milan, which they failed to hold after the peace). Overall, I think the acension of Savoy from a medium power to a regional power would be a mixed blessing for Savoy, and they would have a very hard time holding onto their newly acquired territory even before the French Revolution.

IIRC the duchy of Savoy and the duchy of Milan did share a landborder. Regarding a possible war of the Polish succession the house of Savoy had a claim on the duchy of Mantua and IIRC Sardinia-Savoy wanted the duchies of Milan and Mantua. So the French and Spanish Bourbons might offer Mantua to Sardinia-Savoy to get their support.
Although I agree, that things won't be easy.

 

[Janprimus]

A more interesting alternate Treaty of Utrecht, in my opinion, would be one in which the Dutch Republic somehow ends up with the Spanish Netherlands. This could have come about if the Hapsbourgs were forced out of the war in the early stage by the Franco-Bavarian alliance, or perhaps if there was a complete falling out between the Allies in the later stages of the war.

In the Dutch Republic, which was dominated by protestants, there were various opinions if they would want the Southern Netherlands, which had a vast Catholic majority. IIRC most of the Dutch elite didn't like that idea, they preferred to have some influence in the area, but they didn't mind that this region was ruled by a friendly Catholic power. Which was distant Austria and even Spain and not France, which had threatened the Republic in the recent past.

In contrast Savoy really wanted Milan and the Royal crown of relatively poor Sardinia would be a bonus.
Austria receiving the (relatively rich) kingdom Sicily instead IMO seemed a plausible alternative treaty.

 

[Antipater]

In contrast Savoy really wanted Milan and the Royal crown of relatively poor Sardinia would be a bonus.
Austria receiving the (relatively rich) kingdom Sicily instead IMO seemed a plausible alternative treaty.

I didn't know the two duchies shared a land border, I figured Modena and Genoa were in the way. Thanks for correction!

I think such an outcome could have occurred if Savoy had been a constant and faithful ally of Austria, but given the duplicitous behavior of Victor Amadeus during the war, I don't think the Austrians would be in the mood to do him any favors. Savoy was a valuable ally because of its location, but one that could easily switch sides if the odds went against them.

 

[Janprimus]

I didn't know the two duchies shared a land border, I figured Modena and Genoa were in the way. Thanks for correction!

I think such an outcome could have occurred if Savoy had been a constant and faithful ally of Austria, but given the duplicitous behavior of Victor Amadeus during the war, I don't think the Austrians would be in the mood to do him any favors. Savoy was a valuable ally because of its location, but one that could easily switch sides if the odds went against them.

I'll give it one more shot .

Well that's because their position made them both valuable and vunerable. At least partially Victor Amadeus II acted this way, because this was best for Savoy.
I'm sure that Austria wouldn't be in the mood, but made Austria preforms a bit worse?
In any case the kingdom of (the island of) Sicily is a reasonable compensation for Milan and Sardinia.
Both were interested in Milan, Sardinia is more interesting for Savoy, because it gives them a royal title and it thus becomes worthwhile for them to gain control of this relatively poor island ; Austria OTOH already had various royal titles and would receive instead the more important kingdom of Sicily instead of the kingdom of Sardinia, however at the same time they would not gain the valuable duchy of Milan. The latter is a bigger issue for Austria than Sardinia.

 

[Janprimus]

(...)

I am not sure what effect giving Sicily to Austria seven years earlier would have. The Hapsbourgs lost the two sicilies to the Spanish Bourbons after the War of Polish Succession, and I don't think another seven years to rule over Sicily would really change that.

(...)

Even if the house of Habsburg manages to keep Naples and Sicily after the war of the Polish succession, they IMHO will eventually lose it during or after the war of the Austrian succession. Either to a Spanish Bourbon or one of the claimants of the Austrian inheritance (Bavaria and Saxony), most likely the elector of Bavaria, gains the kingdoms of Naples and Sicily as a compensation. Sardinia-Savoy could gain Mantua.

 

[Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy]

Glad to see that I'm not the only one interested in discussing the War of Spanish succession (shameless plug for thread I started last night)

This could have come about if the Hapsbourgs were forced out of the war in the early stage by the Franco-Bavarian alliance, or perhaps if there was a complete falling out between the Allies in the later stages of the war.

Shameless plug on my behalf:

https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=177868

But Austria being knocked out means the English and Dutch no longer have a candidate to put forward for the Spanish throne. And most of the Southern Netherlands were under French occupation in the early stage of the war, so either they keep them (most likely as part of Spain) or demand a high price elsewhere in exchange for abandoning the core of the region to someone other than the Dutch Republic (as they do in my TL).

 

[Vanity 6]

How about this?

Spain and the Indies to Philip.
Bavaria to Austria
Spanish Netherlands to Bavaria (garrisoned by the Dutch)
Lorraine to France
Milan to the Duke of Lorraine
Sardinia to Savoy
Naples to Elizabeth of Habsburg, Charles' sister
Cuba, Florida, Gibraltar, Menorca, Sicily to Britain

 

[JonasResende]

Icould be misremembering, but wasn't another reason for the fact Savoy was given the "extra" kingdom of Sicily, because of the fact that the deal originally went that the Wittelsbachs would hand over the electorate of Bavaria to the Habsburgs, in exchange for the kingdom of Sicily/Sardinia/and or Naples. Max II refused and the kingdom was awarded to another middling power - namely Victor Amadeus (who if you think about it, his politicking was not so different from Max's, excepting the fact that the Bavarian elector stayed on the same side the whole war), since he already had a claim on the Spanish inheritance. I can't remember if the duke of Lorraine was somehow also involved in this scenario?

 

[Vanity 6]

I think you are correct. I don't see how Max was in a position to refuse anything as his Electorate had been occupied and pacified by the Austrians. An integration of Bavaria would have blunted any French incursions toward Vienna. I understand it may have been unpopular in Germany but who was going to stop it?

I think the Austrians could have at some point done some pitting of France and Britain against one another before or during the Utrecht negotiations instead of fighting on.