WI: Anglo-German Alliance pre-1914?

[Vextra]

Under what Circumstances would it be reasonable for Britain to form an Alliance with Imperial Germany prior to 1914? I'm working on a Timeline with a POD no later than 1906 in which a Quadruple Pact is formed between Tsarist Russia, France, Ottoman Empire(sortof) and Austro-Hungary.

However, even with such an unholy alliance, I find it difficult to construct a plausible scenario in which the British Empire would form an alliance with the Second Reich. From the 1890s onward, rivalry had become increasingly intense between the two states, and the obvious imperial and economic ambitions of the Kaiser were a direct challenge to the Empire.

Even in a situation where the Ottoman Empire was essentially the hand-puppet for both Tsarist Russia and Austro-Hungary, and where the Franco-Russian Alliance was strong, I don't see any reason for the British to ally with the Germans. Might Germany have stood alone? (save perhaps for the Italians, although it is doubtful they would have remained allied for as long as they did in OTL, given a reluctant alliance by association between France, Russia and A-H)

Thoughts?

 

[Lord Insane]

Check out the Anglo-German Alliance TL (by Glen), it is atleast halfway plausible.
The problem with your scenario might, ironically enough, be Austria-Hungary. See, the Austro-(other)German Alliance was very popular amongst the common Austrians and the other Germans. As for whether the British might ally with Germany in the scenario you present...
Actually, the answer might be yes, if only to avoid a Continental Hegemon France (and French ambitions towards the Low Countries). Add that to playing up the Great Game, and it might be done...

 

[Susano]

Well, in teh 1880s Germany and Great Britain were kind of unofficial allies. I dont see what you eman - theres plenty enough reason for Great Britain to ally with Germany. Arguably more reason than to ally with France, in any case. If either side was a bit less stuck-up over the whole armal race thing (the UK is not entirely blameless inthe matter, either), it could have worked. I fail to see how German economical development is a threat to the British Empire - and the way you have formulated it it comes about as a bit of "How dare the Germans develop economy!"...

Increase Anglo-French colonial rivalry and Anglo-Russian rivalry in the 1890s, and somehow downplay the whole naval arment thing, and it is more logical for the UK to ally with Germany against France and Russia than the other way round.

 

[David S Poepoe]

An Anglo-German Alliance isn't workable between 1900 and 1914 and thats not including the naval rivalry. I would suggest Kennedy's book 'The Rise of Anglo-German Antagonism 1860-1914'. Germany, much like the United States, was a growing economic rival to Britain so this point can't be taken lightly.

 

[Atreus]

The first thing you must do is remove the German naval armament. It sparked off a massive naval race and polarized British opinion against Germany, which seemed intent on surplanting the british as the rulers of the oceans. I'm not saying this is all that must happen, but it is a start. Also, have Germany follow Bismark's ideas and not spend much time looking out for colonies, which distracted Germany and lead to several problematic incidents (the Tangeirs and Agadir Crisis spring to mind) which ended up cementing the entente more then anything, or which helped create the image of "the vicious hun" (the expedition to china, the herero Genocide), and have germany focus more on the continent of europe (although explicitly not the UK) for expansion. If there is a tacit understanding that the Germans can have a free hand in europe (although centuries of British policy sugest that they might covertly aid their targets), but that the British are supreme on the oceans and in Africa and Asia, an alliance will be workable, at least in theory.

 

[EvolvedSaurian]

I can't see Russia and the Ottomans allying, too much bad blood between them. And where would Italy figure in this?

 

[Lord Insane]

I can't see Russia and the Ottomans allying, too much bad blood between them. And where would Italy figure in this.

I'd guess with the Anglo-Germans, if the other side doesn't look too strong. Remember, the Italians have irredentist claims against both France and Austria-Hungary, but at the same time, they are in between them (which is a bad position, strategically, to be)...

 

[EvolvedSaurian]

I'd guess with the Anglo-Germans, if the other side doesn't look too strong. Remember, the Italians have irredentist claims against both France and Austria-Hungary, but at the same time, they are in between them (which is a bad position, strategically, to be)...

Especially when you consider the OTL crappiness of the Italian military.

 

[Lord Insane]

Especially when you consider the OTL crappiness of the Italian military.

How aware were the Italians of how bad their military were?
Besides, one shouldn't exeggerate.
WW2 is probably making people think worse of Italy's military in the Great War then they really ought to.

 

[Something]

Check out the Anglo-German Alliance TL (by Glen), it is atleast halfway plausible.
The problem with your scenario might, ironically enough, be Austria-Hungary. See, the Austro-(other)German Alliance was very popular amongst the common Austrians and the other Germans. As for whether the British might ally with Germany in the scenario you present...
Actually, the answer might be yes, if only to avoid a Continental Hegemon France (and French ambitions towards the Low Countries). Add that to playing up the Great Game, and it might be done...

Can you post a link to the TL please.

 

[HJ Tulp]

How aware were the Italians of how bad their military were?
Besides, one shouldn't exeggerate.
WW2 is probably making people think worse of Italy's military in the Great War then they really ought to.

When Italian Military capabilities come up my mind doesn't jump to the battles of El Alamein and Tobruk but rather the 33 battles on the Isonzo actually.

 

[Lord Insane]

Can you post a link to the TL please.

Sure.
Here: https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=35146

 

[stevep]

Vextra

I would agree with LordInsane that the single biggest problem with your scenario is having Austria siding with France and especially Russia, since the latter was its greatest threat. That would need something very dramatic to come about. [The only thing that comes to mind is even more crass German diplomacy, to drive Austria into the other camp and if you have that a link with Britain is even less likely].

The best scenario for an Anglo-German link would require removing/lowering tensions between the two and/or increasing tensions Britain has with Russia and France. Basically making Britain think the Franco-Russian bloc is a bigger threat to it that Germany. It was the success of German diplomacy in persuading Britain that Germany was the greater threat that made it patch up details with its traditional rivals. Avoid the naval race and preferably have the Kaiser be a bit more careful, especially say no outlandish statements supporting the Boers. [Although that is a bit before your preferred POD]. Similarly possibly Edward VII dies earlier, weakening relations with France. Or the Dogger Bank incident gets bloodier with RN retaliation and possibly near war between Britain-Japan and Russia-France. [Although again that is before your preferred POD].

Possibly the only thing I could think of for a 1906 POD. Say Edward dies earlier, removing the main supporter of a French alliance. Also someone in Germany, seeing the speed with which the RN built Dreadnought and is building others decides a naval race with Britain is a BAD idea and persuades either the Kaiser and/or elements in government of this. Probably means Tirpitz gets sacked but that would take a lot of the heat out of things. Industrial and military factions get compensation in terms of more equipment for the army. Coupled with some clash between British and either French or Russian interests and relations start to worsen there. [I think the agreement with Russia that settled a number of differences was made in 1907 so possibly does occur in TTL so still tension in Persia, Afghanistan, China etc.

Steve

 

[Zyzzyva]

When Italian Military capabilities come up my mind doesn't jump to the battles of El Alamein and Tobruk but rather the 33 battles on the Isonzo actually.

Well, 11. But yes. Very yes.

 

[Atreus]

I would agree with LordInsane that the single biggest problem with your scenario is having Austria siding with France and especially Russia, since the latter was its greatest threat. That would need something very dramatic to come about. [The only thing that comes to mind is even more crass German diplomacy, to drive Austria into the other camp and if you have that a link with Britain is even less likely].

Steve: A few thoughts on this point.

I don't see an incredible problem with Austria allying with France. True, they have fought each other on and off for centuries, but the same was true of the British and French, for instance. Both suffered humiliating defeats at the hands of Germany. There was once an instance where Empress Eugenie (wife of Napoleon III) declared that their child "will never reign unless we repair the misfortunes of Sadowa". Granted, this happened in 1868, and the Bonaparte's were gone, but some of the sympathy will remain. Austria and France both had relativly recent territorial and historical problems with Italy (France propped up the pope and Austria crushed many of the revolutions in 1848-9; France took Nice and Savoy in 1859 before selling the piedmontese out; Italy took Venetia from Austria in the Austro-Prussian war; italy maintained claims on Trento and Trieste until gaining them after World War One). I believe that there were a few rough spots in Austro-German relations until the central powers began to solidify. Have Bismark make some different decisions, or a different monarch overrules him (say Frederick III; which conviniently also makes Anglo-german relations easier), and Germany could easily allienate Austria, whetehr intentionally or accidentaly (although if you want an accident, I recommend Wilhelm II, whose reign is noted for a series of foreign policy failures). A Franco-Austrian alliance is an overlooked one in the annals of AH, but definitly possible.

An Austro-Russian alliance is harder. However, it is also not impossible (in fact, given the lack of recent wars, it might be easier then the french one in some ways). Austria and Russia have a shared interest in the dismemberment of what is left of the Ottoman Empire in Europe and in hegemony over the Balkans. Russia in OTL allied with France, and in TTL France is allied with Austria, so this is a logical connection. Russia is worried about possible German expansion, and I believe they would consider Germany a greater threat then Austria. Now, as in this timeline Austria also has problems with Germany (allied with france bitterness over defeat), the maxim "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" will hold true.

 

[stevep]

Steve: A few thoughts on this point.

I don't see an incredible problem with Austria allying with France. True, they have fought each other on and off for centuries, but the same was true of the British and French, for instance. Both suffered humiliating defeats at the hands of Germany. There was once an instance where Empress Eugenie (wife of Napoleon III) declared that their child "will never reign unless we repair the misfortunes of Sadowa". Granted, this happened in 1868, and the Bonaparte's were gone, but some of the sympathy will remain. Austria and France both had relativly recent territorial and historical problems with Italy (France propped up the pope and Austria crushed many of the revolutions in 1848-9; France took Nice and Savoy in 1859 before selling the piedmontese out; Italy took Venetia from Austria in the Austro-Prussian war; italy maintained claims on Trento and Trieste until gaining them after World War One). I believe that there were a few rough spots in Austro-German relations until the central powers began to solidify. Have Bismark make some different decisions, or a different monarch overrules him (say Frederick III; which conviniently also makes Anglo-german relations easier), and Germany could easily allienate Austria, whetehr intentionally or accidentaly (although if you want an accident, I recommend Wilhelm II, whose reign is noted for a series of foreign policy failures). A Franco-Austrian alliance is an overlooked one in the annals of AH, but definitly possible.

An Austro-Russian alliance is harder. However, it is also not impossible (in fact, given the lack of recent wars, it might be easier then the french one in some ways). Austria and Russia have a shared interest in the dismemberment of what is left of the Ottoman Empire in Europe and in hegemony over the Balkans. Russia in OTL allied with France, and in TTL France is allied with Austria, so this is a logical connection. Russia is worried about possible German expansion, and I believe they would consider Germany a greater threat then Austria. Now, as in this timeline Austria also has problems with Germany (allied with france bitterness over defeat), the maxim "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" will hold true.

Atreus

Would agree that a Franco-Austria alliance wouldn't be a great problem if you can get a good relationship between Austria and Russia. However given the rivarly in the Balkans and rise of pan-Slavic feeling in Russia - and pan-German feeling in the Austrian Germans I think that is going to be very difficult to achieve. They don't so much have a shared interest in the control of the Balkan as much as deep compertition over it. As such I think it would be very difficult to achieve an alliance between Vienna and St Petersburg. And since the Russian alliance is vital to France that's why I can't see such a diplomatic revolution. Not totally impossible but I would say highly unlikely.

Steve

 

[lounge60]

What about a Anglo-German-Austrian alliance?

 

[Atreus]

Atreus

Would agree that a Franco-Austria alliance wouldn't be a great problem if you can get a good relationship between Austria and Russia. However given the rivarly in the Balkans and rise of pan-Slavic feeling in Russia - and pan-German feeling in the Austrian Germans I think that is going to be very difficult to achieve. They don't so much have a shared interest in the control of the Balkan as much as deep compertition over it. As such I think it would be very difficult to achieve an alliance between Vienna and St Petersburg. And since the Russian alliance is vital to France that's why I can't see such a diplomatic revolution. Not totally impossible but I would say highly unlikely.

Steve

Steve

Okay, so let's see under what, if any circumstances a Russo-Austrian Alliance is possible. France will obviously play a key role, as a friend of both with a vested interest in keeping them together. Downplaying nationalism in this period would help, but given teh european mindset's swing towards nationalism starting in the 19th century I doubt that can be done. So we need for them to have something in common. The best possibility is a more humiliating peace imposed on Austria in the 1866 war, and a war between Germany and Russia in the late 1870s or early 1880s (aka, before the French are rebuilt to the point where they can decisivly weigh in for Russia). Maybe sweden opens a second front in the north, retakes finland in the peace settlement, and becomes a junior German ally. Russia loses a lot, and is shown that it's military needs a lot of work, but is basically intact. However, pride demands revenge against Germany. France has similar views. Austria doesn't care as much about Germany directly, but Germany in this timeline is still backing Italy which is generally being a nuissance with regard to the Adriatic as far as austria is concerned (it is also pressing claims against france with German backing, just as a bonus). So Austria wants revenge on Italy and Germany, France wants to get back at Germany, and Russia wants to defeat Germany. They all now have something in common. It may not be permanent, but we have many recent historical cases of centuries old military rivalries disappearing in decades or less, and this could be one of them.

Atreus

 

[stevep]

Steve

Okay, so let's see under what, if any circumstances a Russo-Austrian Alliance is possible. France will obviously play a key role, as a friend of both with a vested interest in keeping them together. Downplaying nationalism in this period would help, but given teh european mindset's swing towards nationalism starting in the 19th century I doubt that can be done. So we need for them to have something in common. The best possibility is a more humiliating peace imposed on Austria in the 1866 war, and a war between Germany and Russia in the late 1870s or early 1880s (aka, before the French are rebuilt to the point where they can decisivly weigh in for Russia). Maybe sweden opens a second front in the north, retakes finland in the peace settlement, and becomes a junior German ally. Russia loses a lot, and is shown that it's military needs a lot of work, but is basically intact. However, pride demands revenge against Germany. France has similar views. Austria doesn't care as much about Germany directly, but Germany in this timeline is still backing Italy which is generally being a nuissance with regard to the Adriatic as far as austria is concerned (it is also pressing claims against france with German backing, just as a bonus). So Austria wants revenge on Italy and Germany, France wants to get back at Germany, and Russia wants to defeat Germany. They all now have something in common. It may not be permanent, but we have many recent historical cases of centuries old military rivalries disappearing in decades or less, and this could be one of them.

Atreus

Atreus

Agreed, if you go back that far then its a different matter. As you say a much harsher peace after 1866, which might then led to continued close links between Germany and Italy. Not sure you would need a German-Russian war and that could be difficult as there would be a likelihood of both France and Austria jumping on the band-wagon and I doubt Germany could survive that. Possibly better to have the continuation of the German-Russia friendship that Bismarck established, which would be even more important with both Austria and France hostile. Then you get something like Wilhelm deciding to drop the alliance with Russia, possibly thinking he can patch things up with Austria and finding out he can't. That would leave a Germany that, if other things are pretty much the same, is the dominant economic power in Europe but very isolated. In that case an alliance with Britain would be highly likely. Germany would be desperate for allies and would not have the resources for a naval race with Britain while Britain would seek to aid Germany to maintain the balance of power. In this scenario however I think the Ottomans would end up on the Anglo-German side. They would see the Russians and to a lesser degree the Austrians as their main threat.

I was thinking of a much later POD.

Steve

 

[Matthais Corvinus]

If you go for a pre-1900 POD then I would suggest this POD https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=82245&highlight=boulanger&page=2

Basically it boils down to Germany was going to intervene in France if Boulanger were to launch a coup. This coincided with a period when France was (potentially) capable of beating Germany in a one-on-one fight. So lets say that Boulanger goes for the coup, and France beats Germany when Germany attempts to intervene.

Now at this point France is on their post-Versailles (the first one) colonial buying spree. Their snapping up real estate in Indo-China and Africa, and generally making the UK feel uncomfortable. This discomfort OTL was eased because Kaiser Wilhelm II was a moron (there are other opinions, but this is mine) and Germany actually was much more of a threat than France.

But in this TL, France, which is making the UK uncomfortable already on the colonial front, now makes their headache even worse. The UK was committed to not letting one power dominate Europe. France has just beaten Germany, and Russia (UK's other major colonial rival) is drifting into France's orbit. So France is viewed as the main threat to the UK, as the dominant threat in Europe and overseas.

Now the Germans will need to focus on the Army and the homefront in the wake of the loss to the French. I don't think that you will see any German attempts to build up a fleet to challenge the UK. The UK will see Germany as the counterbalance to the Franco-Russian alliance in Europe, allowing the UK to actively oppose France and Russia overseas (in Africa and Asia). This alliance will not be written down, but it will be acknowledged by the Germans.

The UK will thus be actively opposing the Franco-Russian alliance, while Germany builds itself up into a military powerhouse. The coming World War (and it is coming just as surely as it did OTL) will result in a very unpleasant world for the UK. The Anglo-German alliance will stand triumphant over the Franco-Russian alliance, and the Germans will be totally dominant in Europe.