WI Alternate split of Austria-Hungary in 1919 .

[Count of Crisco]

What if when Austria-Hungary was split up following the first world war Austria was given a coastline instead of being landlocked .What would the map for this look like and what would the affects be for WWII and after ?Would Austria build any sort of navy post war with a less than friendly Italy as a neighbor ?Or would they do nothing ?And what of the four Tegetthoff class Austrian Dreadnoughts what would come of them in this TL ?
Is this within the realm of plausibility ?Or is it near ASB ?
This is the split OTL .What would be different to the map if Austria was given a corridor to the sea ?

 

[hardrada55]

Tegetthoff battleships

I saw a map once of a similar Austria with a coast line around Trieste. Looks like much of Slovenia was ceded to Austria as a means of providing access to the sea.

Szent Istvan was sunk in June 1918 by Italian motor torpedo boats. Viribus Unitis was handed over to Yugoslavia in November 1918 and quickly sunk by Italian frogmen. That leaves two Tegetthoff class battleships to be handed over to a new Austrian state with a coastline on the Adriatic.

 

[machine3589]

An Austrian coastline is never happening if Italy is in any position to do anything about it.

 

[Richter von Manthofen]

At first you must preserve the habsburgs somehow. Then there must be someone who thinks that both Serbs and Italians should not get what was basically promised to "both". Triest and Itrien are probably going to Italy in any case.

IIRC the Slovenes were basically willing to remain under HAbsburg rule, but with greater independence. Serbia will get Bosnia, but what if the Craots also decide they want remain under Habsburg (make that an Austrian, Slovene Croat federation).

It might happen if Italians and Serbs are agressively campaigning against each otehr with the OTHER Entente nations becoming so fed up that they agree to an rump Habsburg Empire...

 

[Othala]

Serbia is demanding a lot of land, and the idea of a pan-slavic souther state - aka SHS-Staat aka Yugoslavia is deeply rooted in the consciousness of the Entente nations.

Still, if Austria is allowed to keep Styria in it's historical boarders it's not that far off to keep Krain as well...
From there it would only be a short corridor to Triest (Ideally along the railway) - And here we run into Italian interests. Maybe some kind of Free or International city solution like after WWII for a short time?
Alternatively it wouldn't be that far from southern Krain to Fiume though that is claimed by Croatia/Larger Serbia.
Maybe a corridor to the coast at the ATL Italian(Just about all of Istria)/Souther Slav state? Without a big harbour, but the potential to build one?

Though you would need a powerful supporter of Austrian interests to pull that off at a peace conference.

 

[Tizoc]

The most likely possibility would be OTL Austria+Kraina+Rijeka, with Slovenes having effectively their own state, as Hungarians had 1867-1918 - so there would be Austro-Slovenia. And considering how Rijeka/Fiume was contested, between Italy and SHS, the other powers may decide to force a compromise, with A-K being forbidden from having a navy.

This is the split OTL .What would be different to the map if Austria was given a corridor to the sea ?
View attachment 266612

I think you need to replace that map, as it doesn't show neither how the Habsburg lands were split, nor it is OTL (Poland ending on Curzon line, Transcarpatia and Lwow in Russian? state, also not being before in A-H, modern Moldova borders, the borders of ex-Galicia covering only the western part...).

 

[machine3589]

Rijeka is out of the question. Even today it has no direct connection to Slovenia; all the main transport/rail lines go either to Istria or Central Croatia. Plus the topography of the area between the Slovenian border and Rijeka is prohibitive for making such a connection. Basically an Austrian port is unworkable without Trieste or Istria.

 

[fishingfred]

There are 3 main problems I see here:
Why should the Slovenians want to stay with Austria? To deal with this you basically need the Habsburgs to remain in power (so Austria doesn't become German-Austria). You need to deal with the May Declaration (maybe haveJanez Evangelist Krek die earlier). And you need the Austrian(-Germans) offer the Slovenians a pretty good deal with lots of autonomy and language rights in Krain, Carinthia and Styria.

Why doesn't Yugoslavia gain the territory? For this I would assume you need some kind of uprising by the croats against the serbs to make them not want anymore territory or have entente inspectors witness Serbian soldiers putting down an uprising.

Why doesn't Italy gain the territory? This is probably the most difficult to achieve. Italy was promised all of Istria and also parts of Krain through which the railway that leads from Ljubljana to Rijeka runs.

IMHO the best possible outcome Austria can hope for is: All of Styria, Carinthia and Krain + a Free State of Fiume bordering Italy, Austria and Yugoslavia.

Rijeka is out of the question. Even today it has no direct connection to Slovenia; all the main transport/rail lines go either to Istria or Central Croatia. Plus the topography of the area between the Slovenian border and Rijeka is prohibitive for making such a connection. Basically an Austrian port is unworkable without Trieste or Istria.

1) And what do you call this railway line built in 1873(edit)?
2) While I agree with your point that the topography of the area is not exactly easy. It is arguably not any more difficult than the one in between Rijeka and Zagreb.

 

[machine3589]

[/FONT]1) And what do you call this railway line built in 1873(edit)?

Goes through Istria, both the modern region and the huge blob Italy annexed after WWI.

2) While I agree with your point that the topography of the area is not exactly easy. It is arguably not any more difficult than the one in between Rijeka and Zagreb.

Paths going from Rijeka to Zagreb have exsisted since the High Middle Ages. The ones going north from Rijeka only began to be built in the 19th century, so it's apparently more difficult to make such roads than ones towards Zagreb.

 

[Ozzymandias]

There was a possibility if you make POD in the decision of Nikola Pashich, serbian prime minister in 1917. Serbian nationalist were in favor of Greater Serbia (includes all Bosnia-Herzegovina, Monte Negro, Dalmatia, Slavonia, Baranya, Banat, Bachka) and considered Slovenes and Croatia burden on Serbia. In OTL they lost the argument and serbian government made a deal with Yugoslavian board (London) to create a joint state of Serbs, Croat and Slovenes.

Serbians also accepted withdrawing from Pecs (Baranya) in return for peace with Hungary. What if they refuse, and anex Baranya republic ? What if this serbian-hungarian war allows croatian to secure military control by former croatian units of K&K military in western parts of country ?

In this alternative, serbian government rejects trinational state and recognizes small indipendent puppet Croatian state. They would probably become the only place where Karl Habsburg could remain king. Croatian state includes Fiume and Kvarner islands, as well Megymurye county.

Austrian military succeeds in stabilizing rule in southern Steiermark (Maribor), Krain (Leibach) and Kustenland. Theres full cultural autonomy for slavs in new austrian republic.

In the peace deal with Italy, a plebiscit is aranged in Trentino and Trieste which chuse merger with Italy, while Istria with port of Pola remains austrian.

 

[fishingfred]

Goes through Istria, both the modern region and the huge blob Italy annexed after WWI.

The modern county of Istria
You are right though it went through the Austrian Littoral, but then again IF you give Austria the part of Krain promised to Italy then adding this minor strip of land to the Free State of Fiume shouldn't be too difficult to explain.

Paths going from Rijeka to Zagreb have exsisted since the High Middle Ages. The ones going north from Rijeka only began to be built in the 19th century, so it's apparently more difficult to make such roads than ones towards Zagreb.

Again correct, but then again its a post 1900 POD so the definition of "difficult" terrain has changed.

 

[machine3589]

The modern county of Istria
You are right though it went through the Austrian Littoral, but then again IF you give Austria the part of Krain promised to Italy then adding this minor strip of land to the Free State of Fiume shouldn't be too difficult to explain.

Considering both the part of Krainland and the part of the Austrian Littoral that Italy would have to give up to make this viable, I`d say that it`d never happen.

 

[lukedalton]

In the peace deal with Italy, a plebiscit is aranged in Trentino and Trieste which chuse merger with Italy, while Istria with port of Pola remains austrian.

The correct terms will be: over the dead bodies of the italian soldiers that already occupy the region and that will never receive the order of retreat.
Giving up Istria not only mean great economic damage at Trieste and a much worse military position in term of defense...but after 600.000 deaths just not getting north Dalmatia and Fiume was considered a mutilated victory, getting only Trieste it's worse than an insult.

Frankly is more raealistic that Italy decide to let South Tyrol to Austria (with the right concession and condition) than let go the bulk of the italian claim...at least not with OTL WWI.

The best scenario possible it's that Wilson is distracted byt something more important and give ok for the first draft of the Tardieu Plan accepted by Italy.
The expanded free state of Fiume can work as a port for everyone.

 

[Luminous]

Oh dear. Those maps again. Been quite a while since I've seen those lines.

To point though, there is not much of chance at all of Austria managing to keep any sort of coastline with that PoD; you'd need one during the war (or before) which would presuppose the Austrians holding better in the west against Italy or with the Italians not jumping in until late in the war. The empire was dissolving into the national components during 1918 based upon the poor progress of the war and how successful that the Entente was. Austria-Hungary would have to be more unified (or, perhaps, have the minorities have greater autonomy in their own lands).

That's the only case in which a defeated Austria can reach the coastline. But even then this Austria would be different than the German Austria that evolved following OTL. By the end of 1918, the empire was gone. There was nothing left for Austria to save.

 

[Keb]

Well, about the only PoD I can imagine is Austria-Hungary bowing out of the war early (as they initially intended, but those efforts ultimately fell through, with the French letting the information slip to the Germans who put an end to such talk). Suppose the Germans are doing somewhat better and France is more worried.

Austria-Hungary leaves the war early and is forced to cede South Tyrol, Trieste and Istria (the absolute minimum Italy would settle for, which in an early peace they'd get, but the Entente might be desperate enough to knock Austria out of the war not to push things too far). Serbia gets released and gets Banat/Vojvodina (and annexes Montenegro soon afterwards).

Austria-Hungary totters on for some months (as the war turns increasingly bad for the Germans) before collapsing. Their army is basically gone, their industry is collapsing, their infrastructure not even capable of feeding the population and the government's legitimacy is thoroughly compromised. Hungary is the first to leave (conversely, Croatia promptly leaves Hungary), Czecho-slovakia breaks off soon afterwards. Galizia joins newly-independent Poland (established by Germany, but with the German war effort close to collapse, Poland is basically establishing itself as an independent country).

Slovenia decides to stay with Austria and, in the chaos, Austria manages to secure the port of Fiume. As the Serbs march into Bosnia (and begin taking revenge for their treatment during the Austrian occupation), Croatia jumps ship and winds up with Austria, giving Austria a coast-line ... and a fragile, vulnerable construct with potential enemies on all sides and a long border with Italy that very, very much wants that piece of coast Austria has just gained. Serbia's not friendly. Czecho-slovakia is worried about a vengeful Austria. Hungary is ... well, they put the nail in the Empire's coffin, so they're not friendly. And then there's Germany, who'd very much like to annex Austria (and gain a breathing hole in the Mediterranean).

The Habsburgs may or may not be forced to leave. They are probably forced out, their legitimacy is basically gone by this point, even if some loyalty might stay ... enough for an eventual restoration if alt-Austria survives.