WI: Al Smith in 1932

[Statesman]

The premise here is pretty simply, I suppose. What if Al Smith won the Democratic Nomination in 1932? Who would his VP pick be and how would he fair in the General Election in a rematch with Herbert Hoover?

Surely in 1932 he could win despite his Catholicism, right? But by how much?

Thoughts?

 

[Gonzo]

He would've won by less, but I think the perfect storm against Hoover ensured he destined to lose to nearly anyone the Democrats put up. I think he'd chose a strong protestant and probably a southerner (he was the worst performing Democrat in the South for sometime in 1928) so as to stem the tide which had swept him away four years before.

 

[David T]

I believe that if nominated, he would have won, though by a lesser margin than FDR. Bur I also think it extremely unlikely that he would be nominated. It was one thing to take a gamble in 1928 when Hoover was favored to win anyway. But after what happened then, there is no way the Democrats are going to put their near-certain victory in 1932 in jeopardy by nominating Smith again. Of the 770 votes necessary for the nomination, Smith never had more than the 201.75 he got on the first ballot, and they were heavily concentrated in the Northeast.

 

[1940LaSalle]

Had somehow Smith won the nomination, he'd have been pressured to take someone like John Nance Garner as his running mate. Let's face it: Cactus Jack was about as totally not Al Smith as it was possible to get. Hence, a near-perfect ticket balance and a pretty good shot at winning.

But Smith wasn't all that likely to win the nod. If anyone other than Roosevelt, chances are it would have been MD governor Albert Ritchie. He'd have been acceptable to nearly everyone.

 

[Mad Bad Rabbit]

Side effect: no Empire State Building.
The Chrysler Building remains the world's tallest,
until it's surpassed by some ugly glass box in the 1960s.

 

[Marky Bunny]

If you give Hoover the states that FDR won up to 10% in OTL, Smith still wins with this result

Smith 377 electoral votes
Hoover 154 electoral votes

 

[Ariosto]

The nomination race in '28 strongly favored Smith, and the opposite was the case by '32 when the influence of those Democratic politicos that were favorable to Smith was diluted by the influx of new politicos following the '30 elections. Even if we were to discount the perception his defeat in '28 created, even were we to throw the '28 nomination to someone other than Smith so that he could run with a clean slate, it would have been an uphill fight I am not sure he could win without drawing comparisons to '24.

That said were he to somehow end up with the nomination then I'd have to agree with the others in that Smith would win. Catholic turnout would remain fairly high which would mean that states like New York or Massachusetts are securely for the Democratic ticket, whereas loses due to Smith's Catholicism would be somewhat negated; such voters will still exist but most aren't going to be voting Hoover, either deciding that Smith is the lesser evil or opting to not vote at all.

What will be an issue though is whether a Anti-Catholic Democratic ticket decides to form and take advantage of the situation; there was discussion of such a ticket arising in the '28 election, I forget the principle proponents, but many of those who were or would be involved in such an effort ultimately opted to support Hoover, either directly or indirectly. With the choice of Hoover not unpalatable, the field is quite fertile for such a ticket. However I don't believe that such a ticket even were it to attain as high as five or seven percent would seriously jeopardize Smith's chances at election.​

 

[Emperor Julian]

Is there a way to get someone other than Smith to be the 1928 nominee, so that Smith isn't tainted with a landslide loss and remains in the governor's office for four more years, blocking Roosevelt?

 

[Mad Bad Rabbit]

Is there a way to get someone other than Smith to be the 1928 nominee, so that Smith isn't tainted with a landslide loss and remains in the governor's office for four more years, blocking Roosevelt?

The closest runners-up for the 1928 Democratic nomination were:
Cordell Hull
James A. Reed
Jesse Jones

 

[Ariosto]

Is there a way to get someone other than Smith to be the 1928 nominee, so that Smith isn't tainted with a landslide loss and remains in the governor's office for four more years, blocking Roosevelt?

You can, but here is the problem with that. The members of the Democratic party which made up McAdoo's faction were after the elections in '26 no longer the majority or rather, they had virtually no chance of attaining the two-thirds required to attain the nomination for any candidate they favored. On the surface Smith didn't either, but there were quite a few delegates who could be swayed to Smith and ultimately were. Historically McAdoo's faction was split between several candidates, Senator Thomas Walsh of Montana whom McAdoo personally backed, Senator James Reed of Missouri, and then a host of favorite sons like Cordell Hull, most from the South. The entire strategy the Rural-Dry faction worked off of was to deny Smith a two-thirds majority and to force the nomination of a candidate more favorable to their interests. It didn't pan out, not in the primaries or the caucuses.

If Reed were to back out of the race in favor of Walsh, or if McAdoo decided to throw his resources behind Reed rather than convince Walsh to jump into the race, there it is certainly possible that the primaries would be strongly contested; the Anti-Smith vote won a considerable majority in the California primary, and I believe that particular primary still awarded delegates then. Not sure if many caucuses will be changed however, or among those that aren't in the West which hadn't already favored McAdoo in '24.

Now should Reed or Walsh win the California primary and take its delegates, and should they be pledged, then that alone will put Smith below 700 delegates, though I'm not sure by how much. The threshold for the nomination was 737.............and Smith was able to pick up about 120 once his nomination seemed obvious..........so actually they might not be able to block him? Huh.

I actually don't think there is, minus him being incapacitated.​

 

[David T]

If you give Hoover the states that FDR won up to 10% in OTL, Smith still wins with this result

Smith 377 electoral votes
Hoover 154 electoral votes

Smith would definitely carry Massachusetts and Rhode Island--he did so even in 1928! http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/u/usa/pres/1928.txt He might even carry Connecticut, which FDR just failed to do. It really seems that in some heavily Catholic areas FDR did not in 1932 gain much over Smith's 1928 showing, despite the Great Depression. There was evidently some bitterness among Catholic voters about the convention turning down Smith. There was also some resentment that Garner--from "bigotry's banner state" in 1928--was FDR's running mate. https://books.google.com/books?id=2st_CgAAQBAJ&pg=PA245

This is why the notion of an "Al Smith revolution" in 1928 as a precursor of the Democratic triumph in the big cities during the New Deal era is misleading. The Northeast, where Smith helped to boost the Democratic Party in 1928, was FDR's relatively weakest area in 1932. Only later did the New Deal help to make the area heavily Democratic.