WI/AHC: WW2 ends before the completion of the Manhattan Project

[Kung Fucious]

What it says on the tin.

How the war wraps up sooner is immaterial (though maybe worthy of discussion), but what would the effects be of the Third Reich and Imperial Japan being defeated before the completion of the Manhattan Project (either the project runs into a feat it did not encounter OTL, or the Axis are defeated sooner/in such a way that doesn't include the use of nukes)?

Does the project continue? If Trinity is successful, does Truman reveal the bomb to the world, or do the Americans (and by extension, the WAllies) "sit" on the bomb? How does this affect the "psychology" (for lack of a better word) of atomic weapons?

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

What it says on the tin.

How the war wraps up sooner is immaterial (though maybe worthy of discussion), ...

Actually this is extremely material to the answer. The closer to completion the more likely the completion to a test. So, if the war ends:

January 1945. Quite likely

June 1944: At least a 60% chance of completion.

October 1943: Less than one of three.

All these would be modified by the end point political situation. i.e: If the European war ends in latter 1943 or sometime in 1944, but the Red Army still advances west enmass, over and above simple occupation requirements, and Soviet security forces instal Communist governments in the Baltics, Poland, ect... then the US or Britain are likely to push through atomic bomb development.

This of course does not abrogate long term atomic research and development. The USN was taking a look at atomic power as early as 1939, other were thinking along the same lines. Research is going to continue whatever the US or British governments decide & the concept of atomic power is attractive. So, we might see something like OTL for energy production in the 1950s, with weapons delayed a decade?

 

[Kung Fucious]

Actually this is extremely material to the answer. The closer to completion the more likely the completion to a test. So, if the war ends:

January 1945. Quite likely

June 1944: At least a 60% chance of completion.

October 1943: Less than one of three.

All these would be modified by the end point political situation. i.e: If the European war ends in latter 1943 or sometime in 1944, but the Red Army still advances west enmass, over and above simple occupation requirements, and Soviet security forces instal Communist governments in the Baltics, Poland, ect... then the US or Britain are likely to push through atomic bomb development.

This of course does not abrogate long term atomic research and development. The USN was taking a look at atomic power as early as 1939, other were thinking along the same lines. Research is going to continue whatever the US or British governments decide & the concept of atomic power is attractive. So, we might see something like OTL for energy production in the 1950s, with weapons delayed a decade?

True, how/when the war ends will affect whether or not the project goes forward. For the sake of discussion, let's say that the war wraps up around the same time it did OTL, so early-to-mid 1945. The European front ends about the same as OTL, and Japan capitulates without either the use of atomic weapons or the invasion of the home islands (maybe they're blockaded/bombed into submission, maybe the DoW by the Soviets without the dropping of the atomic bombs is enough for the peace faction to convince the Emperor to surrender). Regardless, the gist of it is that the war wraps up roughly around the same time as it does OTL, except now the US possess/is close to possessing atomic weapons.

How does the post-war environment play out?

 

[Peg Leg Pom]

I think it likely that the bomb would be used in Korea when the Chinese get involved. Why, when it wasn't otl? While testing will have shown the power of the Atom Bomb, because there has been no actual use of it, those making the choice won't really be aware of the horror of these weapons. They will have read estimates of the effects but that doesn't have the same impact as seeing film of destroyed cities and mutilated survivors, or reading the accounts of what those survivors endured when the bombs detonated. There are no medical reports of the lingering deaths due to radiation sickness, skin falling off arms like badly fitting gloves or eyeballs melting or being burned out by heat and flash. The bomb would be thought of at least sub consciously as just that a big bomb, and little different except in power to any other.

 

[Kung Fucious]

I think it likely that the bomb would be used in Korea when the Chinese get involved. Why, when it wasn't otl? While testing will have shown the power of the Atom Bomb, because there has been no actual use of it, those making the choice won't really be aware of the horror of these weapons. They will have read estimates of the effects but that doesn't have the same impact as seeing film of destroyed cities and mutilated survivors, or reading the accounts of what those survivors endured when the bombs detonated. There are no medical reports of the lingering deaths due to radiation sickness, skin falling off arms like badly fitting gloves or eyeballs melting or being burned out by heat and flash. The bomb would be thought of at least sub consciously as just that a big bomb, and little different except in power to any other.

Maybe, absent atomic weapons being used against Hiroshima and Nagasaki, nukes are instead considered "tactical" (as much as one could be considered at the time) battlefield weapons. As in, you use them to instantly destroy troop formations or supply depots, instead of using them to replace terror bombing against civilian targets.

I guess the question is also does the US reveal the bomb to the world, even if the Axis is defeated? While the Soviets had thoroughly penetrated the Manhattan Project, if the US doesn't reveal the bomb their options could be limited.

 

[Peg Leg Pom]

They probably release film of the Trinity and Bikini Atoll tests, during the Berlin Air Lift to deter the Soviets from getting overly aggressive.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

I think it likely that the bomb would be used in Korea when the Chinese get involved. Why, when it wasn't otl?

Initially those available were reserved for The USSR. It took a couple years to produce the tactical weapons. In 1953 a dozen of the 28cm cannon were deployed to Japan with nuclear projectiles. They were prepped there for use in Korea. It was ensured via a Communist agent in Japan the Chinese knew the cannon would soon be in Korea.

re: This Kind of War by Fehrenbach

 

[Peg Leg Pom]

Initially those available were reserved for The USSR. It took a couple years to produce the tactical weapons. In 1953 a dozen of the 28cm cannon were deployed to Japan with nuclear projectiles. They were prepped there for use in Korea. It was ensured via a Communist agent in Japan the Chinese knew the cannon would soon be in Korea.

re: This Kind of War by Fehrenbach

From what I understand Truman was under quite a bit of Pressure to use the Bomb when the Chinese came swarming over the border but was unwilling to use them on Asians for a third time. Without the horror and presumably a certain amount of guilt at the result of the first two bombs he might well have made a different choice, especially given how desperate the UN position was at the time. They went from being sure that it was all but over to nearly being trapped and annihilated, that's the sort of situation when desperate measures are considered.

 

[Kung Fucious]

Does Korea even happen, with the knowledge that the Americans/UN have a "superweapon" they've yet to deploy?

 

[Peg Leg Pom]

I don't see why knowing America has a huge bomb they haven't used would prevent the Korean war from happening, when knowing they had a huge bomb they had used with terrible effect didn't. Unless the North Koreans and their sponsors believe the US can and will fight for South Korea the war will still happen. Savage cuts to the US military convinced the NK's that the US couldn't fight them off, and some unwise political statements convinced them that the US wouldn't try.