WI/AHC: Salah Jadid Remains in Power?

[Revolutionary Avocado]

What it says on the tin. What if Salah Jadid had remained in power? How would he sideline or purge Bashar al-Assad and his more moderate "Corrective Revolution" clique in the Ba'athist Party? What shape would a more radically Ba'athist Syria take? How would Syria look economically and socially?

Another important butterfly would be the Palestinian issue, as Jadid had begun intervention on the PLO's side during Black September in Jordan. Would we see Syrian annexation of Jordan? A puppet "Arab Republic of Palestine" with Yasser Arafat in charge? How would this change Syria's foreign relations? The Israeli-Palestinian conflict?

Just to be clear, I might try to make this into a TL (if I can find the time and energy), so if anyone is interested in working collaboratively on it, PM me.

 

[Orry]

From what I have read Jordan was calling for help from anybody who they thought would listen during the period of 'Black September'.


As King Hussein dealt with threats by both Palestinian refugees in his country and invading Syrian forces, the king asked "the United States and Great Britain to intervene in the war in Jordan, asking the United States, in fact, to attack Syria, and some transcripts of diplomatic communiques show that Hussein requested Israeli intervention against Syria." Timothy Naftali said. "Syria had invaded Jordan and the Jordanian king, facing what he felt was a military rout, said please help us in any way possible. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_September_in_Jordan

In OTL the Syrian airforce stayed out of the fight allowing the Jordanians to break up the Syrian attacks from the air. If the Syrian airforce got involved it is less likely that Jordan would win without outside help.

I would not see how Israeli ground forces would get involved but I think it is not ASB that fearing Syrian / Palestinian control of Jordan, Israel might get involved in the air supporting Jordan. The Israeli's flying air superiority and interdiction whilst the Jordanians fly close ground support.

This could have a knock on effect later.

 

[Revolutionary Avocado]

<snip>

The thing is, if Israel gets involved in Jordan, there is an implicit quid-pro-quo between the two states, with Israel now essentially making Jordan into an Arab protectorate. I honestly don't think that the Arab states would tolerate that. I could easily see the Ba'athists in Iraq, in exchange for being given some level of influence in post-war Palestinian Jordan (including free access to the port of Aqaba), might join the Syrians to "liberate the Palestinians". That might induce Egypt into the war as well, at least in terms of mobilization (drawing Israeli forces off of the Jordanian and Syrian fronts) and some half-hearted raids on Israeli positions in the Sinai, so as not to lose their moral authority as the leaders of the Arab world. With all those forces arrayed against them, the Israelis might decide that its better to not risk the blood and treasure defending a still-hostile Arab regime, and instead bunker down and defend themselves.

In the long term, I think that this setup would be more conducive to peace. A legitimate Palestinian state in Jordan could end up being given much of the West Bank and maybe bits of Israel, in exchange for Israel retaining all of Jerusalem and the Gaza Strip (the population would be resettled into Jordan).

 

[Revolutionary Avocado]

Bump.....?