In 488 AD , at the behest of Byzantine Emperor Zeno , Theodoric moved his people , the Ostrogoths to Italy . With a Minimum PoD of 476 , prevent the Ostrogoths from moving into Italy . Keep in mind The Goths should not move into Italy and get obliterated by Odoacer , They should never move to Italy in the first place. What are consequences of this ?
WI/AHC: Ostrogoths Never move to Italy
- Thread starter Hannibal The Bannable
- Start date
Syagrius , Visigoths , Odoacer , Burgundians , Alemmani ,other Franks .Lots Possible with the the early PoD.
Carter I'm Yog
Banned
It may be possible but it would be like say it might be possible for Justinian to retake Italy without making it a comparative wasteland.
But let me put out, if not an exact POD, at least a motive for causing a POD. IOTL Verina and Basilicus enlisted Ilus' help against Zeno. What if they felt Ilus would not follow them and hired Theodoric instead?
But let me put out, if not an exact POD, at least a motive for causing a POD. IOTL Verina and Basilicus enlisted Ilus' help against Zeno. What if they felt Ilus would not follow them and hired Theodoric instead?
Well, let's say for one that the civil wars between the various Ostrogothic factions in the Balkans in the late 470s play out differently. Theoderic Strabo, Theoderic the Great's main adversary emerges victorious ITTL and assumes control over the entire Ostrogothic nation.
Assuming nothing has changed in the West and Odoacer dethrones Romulus Augustulus, then there are going to be all sorts of issues with the eastern court: Nepos is most likely still in Dalmatia and wants to return to Italy; Zeno is in a tough spot, since Nepos is the last Western emperor recognised and backed by Constantinople, but he also understands that Odoacer has managed to consolidate his position in the area and he is most likely unwilling to engage in a large campaign against a rather powerful barbarian enemy in which the result is difficult to predict (the memories of the campaign of 467 would weigh alot but also, Zeno would probably feel uncorfotable having someone other than himself be in command of a sizable military force so soon after the coup of Basiliscus). Both sides will continue to ask for the emperor's support, while Zeno tries to balance them out . In 480, when Nepos dies, Zeno would probably seize the opportunity to order the Ostrogoths to leave Thrace and Illyricum and settle in Dalmatia. Combined with a generous subsidy, this could get Strabo on board, thus removing him from the areas under direct imperial rule in the Balkans; Strabo would most likely die soon after arriving in Dalmatia (he was already quite old) and the divisions between different leading Osrogothic figures for the leadership could help keep them divided and thus neutralised for the following years.
However, this wouldn't mean that all would be well for Odoacer. For one, his position as king of his people and a patricius ruling Italy in the name of the now officially sole emperor Zeno didn't bode well with a large part of the Italian aristocracy, which wanted to have an emperor of its own, based on the West. Furthermore, while Odoacer certainly helped bring about a significant measure of peace and stability in Italy, both much sought-after following the continuous wars and usurpations of the 470s and he made efforts to ensure continuity in government, his administration is often marked, according to sources at the time, by instances of corruption and extortion which left a bad image in general while IOTL, he seems to have mismanaged state finance to a considerable degree. And last, but not least, he wasn't an entirely legal official, since he had risen to power by overthrowing Romulus Augustulus through a military rebellion and having forced Zeno, recently returned to power, to recognise the new status quo in Italy.
Therefore, acceptance by the local elite, administative and financial issues and questions of legitimacy all hang over Odovacer's head. While he managed to remain almost 15 years in power IOTL, most of it was due to the fact that Zeno didn't want to rock the boat and was preoccupied dealing with the Ostrogoths, other barbarian raids in Europe and domestic unrest (such as the rebellion of Illus). ITTL however, he has managed to deal with the Ostrogoths, although this still leaves him with the other foreign and domestic threats. Now, if this allows him to deal with the other issues the empire faced at the time more easily and Odoacer acts more carefully , then Zeno could consider him to be safe enough to continue ruling in Italy.
In that case, Odoacer would remain in power. Things would start to gradually improve, despite the aforementioned problems that existed throughout most of his reign, since stability, peace , the cooperation with the senatorial aristocracy and time could all allow for the foundations of Odoacer's rule to become even stronger: with stability and peace, the Italian economy would continue its recovery, which in turn would increase state revenues, something that could in turn allow Odoacer to organise the administration of his realm a tad better; the more hostile elements of the Italian aristocracy could start gradually coming around, seeing that for all his shortcomings, Odoacer secured their interests and had in fact restored to them a certain degree of power and authority, while he kept away the more interventionist Constantinopolitan court. Thus, with some luck, Odoacer could manage to build a fairly stable state under his rule; relations with the eastern empire would remain an issue but I think that Odoacer would be more interested in just ruling Italy rather than in playing a much more expanded and complex role as Theodoric did, which in turn means that the eastern empire wouldn't perceive him as a threat to its political and diplomatic interests in the West (as it happened during the reign of Anastasius with the Ostrogoths).
All in all, Italy under Odoacer would resemble more the other Germanic kingdoms established in the lands of the western empire instead of what IOTL became the Ostrogothic state. Italy, due to its relative wealth and its past, would certainly play an important role in western affairs, but wouldn't probably become the hub of a network of alliances like it did during Theodoric's reign. There would be issues with the Vandals, since Geiseric's successors would probably want to overturn the treaty of 477 and regain Sicily, but otherwise, Odoacer would manage to maintain neutral, if not good relations with most other Germanic kingdoms.
However, there is also the possibility of Odoacer overplaying his hand and thus making Zeno or his successor anxious about him. In that case, Constantinople could have decided ITTL to overthrow Odoacer in order to eliminate him. Assuming that the Roman government turns to the Ostrogoths in order for them to carry out the task, then it is very poosible that this time the invasion would fail, since the Ostrogoths would be fairly disorganised due to years of division and they would face stiff resistance from a rather capable military commander. This development could be enough to dissuade the eastern empire from continuing the war, in which case a peace treaty would be concluded between the two sides. What is interesting here is what would it entail. Would Odoacer ask to be recognised as a completely independent ruler, no longer bound by treaties and obligations to Constantinople or would he just ask to be reaffirmed in his old offices and titles?
1)Complete Independence: The first option has some obvious advantages for Odoacer, since it means that the eastern emperor has no legal means to use in order to interfere in Italian affairs. However, there are also major drawbacks: it deprives Odoacer of legitimacy and it would probably put him at odds with the bulk of the Italian senatorial aristocracy, who would perceive such a move being against the idea of the continuation of the western empire, which a significant number of the members of tha class seems to have been harbouring and perhaps a turn to a more "Visigothic" style of government (again, not something that would endear him to local elites). Also, it would be more difficult for Constantinople to accept something like that, since it would signify defeat. Relations between Ravenna and Constantinople would freeze for quite some time and there would be various flashpoints between the two states (the Papacy, Dalmatia, the affairs of the Italian aristocracy etc).
Furthermore, Odoacer would have to deal with with other issues too: the Vandals, under Huneric, would most likely want to overturn the treaty of 477 and get back Sicily (they tried to do so IOTL when Theodoric had invaded Italy). ITTL, they could actually attempt it, exploiting Odoacer's preoccupation with the eastern empire. There is a good chance they could manage to hold it, since Odoacer's army would have still been somewhat bloodied after the war with the Ostrogoths and Odoacer wouldn't probably want to open a new front. Thus, for at least two years, there would be a state of tense peace between the two barbarian states. After that, Odoacer might try to reclaim the island. In that case, he would be embroiled in a war against the Vandals which could have rather negative consequences (see more below).
Relations with the Burgundians would be rather problematic from the beginning, since they were fairly loyal allies to the empire and they wouldn't want to risk losing Constantinople's support, for all that mattered. Perhaps there would be sporadic fighting between the two, as the Roman government would have prodded the Burgundians to launch attacks against Odoacer from time to time.
The Visigoths might be the only case where Odoacer would have some success. They would be in a fairly similar situation and there would be no conflict of interest between the two; the fact that Odoacer was the one that, in the name of emperor Zeno, recognised the territorial gains made at the time of Euric and actually handed over the last remnants of the western empire in Viennensis and Tarraconensis to the Visigoths might not be lost; furthermore, the Visigoths were not interested in staying on the good graces of the eastern empire. Thus, there could be a sort of cooperation between the two states, perhaps against the Burgundians; but apart from that, the Visigoths would probably continue their "splendid isolation" and not interact much with Odoacer.
The other major issues Odoacer would have to deal with would be domestic. For one, the Italo-Roman aristocracy would probably fulminate at these changes, which would represent a major threat on the Roman ideal and related subjects; this (real or perceived) threat on the "traditional" way of life and its related principles could then make the local elites less cooperative with Odoacer, which in turn would increase domestic instability. If Odoacer (or his son in that case) chose to double down on the idea of independence from Constantinople and adopted measures such as the promotion of Arianism and other related policies, it would spell big trouble for their continued rule in Italy, since it would antagonise much of the upper class and the people.
Now, if Odoacer were to be at war with a serious opponent and said war dragged on (most likely with the Vandals, since Odoacer would be under pressure to regain the island but under Huneric, the Vandals were still in good shape), and faced significant domestic opposition from many quarters, this might offer the eastern empire a chance to settle the Italian question definitively. Assuming that Zeno has died by then, his successor propably wouldn't shy away from the use of force. Thus, Odoacer could perhaps be forced to face a three-sided attack (from the Ostrogoths (if they have remained in fairly good shape), the Burgundians and the Romans,) while he is still busy dealing with the Vandals. Perhaps imperial diplomacy could manage to keep Huneric in the war long enough (perhaps with a promise to reaffirm the status of Sicily as a Vandal territory) for Odoacer to find himself under immense pressure. Thus, if the war had broken out in 491, by 494-95, Odoacer would most have most likely been defeated by the enemy coalition.
The question of Italy's fate would be a complex one. There would certainly be many Italian aristocrats that would ask for the restoration of the western empire; however, this could jeopardise relations with the western kingdoms, because of the troubles it would create for the Germanic kings, while many would remember the fact that the western empire dragged Constantinople more than once into costly interventions, sometimes with catastrophic consequences (the campaign against the Vandals). Furthermore, since the sending of Romulus Augustulus' regalia to Constantinople, it would be rather difficult for any emperor to be willing to split authority and prestige and recognise a co-emperor in the West. For all these reasons, the eastern government could probably look at first for someone to succeed Odoacer. The two obvious options would have been the Ostrogoths and the Burgundians. However, both would have been already settled - the Burgundians already had a kindgom in the southern provices of the dioceses of Gaul and the Ostrogoths would have been settled for almost a decade in Dalmatia and could have expanded their influence to most of Pannonia, and the internal divisions would have prevented them from being able for pushing a claim on Italy. Thus in the end, the government at Constantinople might be forced to impose direct rule on Italy as the lesser evil
2) Restored status quo: If Odoacer chose the second option, then we would basically see a return to the pre-war status quo. However, it is questionable whether this state of affairs would have lasted for long. If this was the result of Odoacer's victory, then perhaps, if peace was made under Zeno's sucessor, with the empire having been defeated for a second time in less than 30 years in the West, that Constantinople would shift its focus even more on domestic affairs and the Sassanid empire, thus leaving the Germanic kingdoms (and thus Odoacer's Italy) rather on their own. This, with some luck, could perhaps allow Odoacer to restore good relations with the Italian aristocracy and elites, and thus manage to consolidate his rule. On the other hand, if that settlement was the result of defeat, things would look beak for Odoacer, since he would probably have to face opposition from other leaders of the Heruli and other barbarian elements in Italy. Perhaps a civil war would break out, which could give neighbouring tribes and states the chance to intervene, while the two sides would call upon foreign support. The eastern empire might be interested in weakening Odoacer, but given that in that case, the civil war would most likely be between Odoacer and the more anti-Roman faction, prudence would dictate that Constantinople remain neutral. This however doesn't mean that the Ostrogoths, Alamanni and Burgundians wouldn't be willing to intervene in Italy; even the Visigoths and the Vandals might play a role in the conflict.
The ambitions of these latter groups would be varying in nature. The Vandals would probably want to secure Sicily (it wouldn't be far-fetched to suggest that following Geiseric's death, the Vandals adopted a much more conservative foreign policy, dedicated to protecting the territories already under Vandal control and their areas of interest). The Visigoths and Alaric II would probably want to intervene in order to place Italy under Visigothic influence and they might even team up with the Ostrogoths to achieve that. The Alamanni would probably go in for the loot while the Burgundians would likely interfere if invited.
If Odoacer emerged victorious from such a conflict, he would have been severely weakened and his authority would have been undermined. This in turn could have given another barbarian group or even the Empire an opportunity to intervene in Italy later on; this in turn could force him to rely more and more on the local elites and population. This in turn might lead to a conversion to Catholicism later in his life, in order to gain the support of the Church and the bulk of the populace and shore up his base of support; if something like that happened, then there would be a good chance that his successor, with some luck and a good degree of stability, would have managed to consolidate his kingdom. If Odoacer was defeated, then his successor would probablybe in a worse position than Odoacer, having to deal with a hostile aristocracy and the supporterof the previous king, as well as foreign threats. Furthermore, the precedent this development would have set could have led in a new era of civil wars in Italy akin to the ones that took place in Spain in the 6th century, which would further undermine the foundations of the Italian kingdom; in such a scenario, intervention from the East would probably be not a matter of if, but of when.
(hope my post is good enough
)
Assuming nothing has changed in the West and Odoacer dethrones Romulus Augustulus, then there are going to be all sorts of issues with the eastern court: Nepos is most likely still in Dalmatia and wants to return to Italy; Zeno is in a tough spot, since Nepos is the last Western emperor recognised and backed by Constantinople, but he also understands that Odoacer has managed to consolidate his position in the area and he is most likely unwilling to engage in a large campaign against a rather powerful barbarian enemy in which the result is difficult to predict (the memories of the campaign of 467 would weigh alot but also, Zeno would probably feel uncorfotable having someone other than himself be in command of a sizable military force so soon after the coup of Basiliscus). Both sides will continue to ask for the emperor's support, while Zeno tries to balance them out . In 480, when Nepos dies, Zeno would probably seize the opportunity to order the Ostrogoths to leave Thrace and Illyricum and settle in Dalmatia. Combined with a generous subsidy, this could get Strabo on board, thus removing him from the areas under direct imperial rule in the Balkans; Strabo would most likely die soon after arriving in Dalmatia (he was already quite old) and the divisions between different leading Osrogothic figures for the leadership could help keep them divided and thus neutralised for the following years.
However, this wouldn't mean that all would be well for Odoacer. For one, his position as king of his people and a patricius ruling Italy in the name of the now officially sole emperor Zeno didn't bode well with a large part of the Italian aristocracy, which wanted to have an emperor of its own, based on the West. Furthermore, while Odoacer certainly helped bring about a significant measure of peace and stability in Italy, both much sought-after following the continuous wars and usurpations of the 470s and he made efforts to ensure continuity in government, his administration is often marked, according to sources at the time, by instances of corruption and extortion which left a bad image in general while IOTL, he seems to have mismanaged state finance to a considerable degree. And last, but not least, he wasn't an entirely legal official, since he had risen to power by overthrowing Romulus Augustulus through a military rebellion and having forced Zeno, recently returned to power, to recognise the new status quo in Italy.
Therefore, acceptance by the local elite, administative and financial issues and questions of legitimacy all hang over Odovacer's head. While he managed to remain almost 15 years in power IOTL, most of it was due to the fact that Zeno didn't want to rock the boat and was preoccupied dealing with the Ostrogoths, other barbarian raids in Europe and domestic unrest (such as the rebellion of Illus). ITTL however, he has managed to deal with the Ostrogoths, although this still leaves him with the other foreign and domestic threats. Now, if this allows him to deal with the other issues the empire faced at the time more easily and Odoacer acts more carefully , then Zeno could consider him to be safe enough to continue ruling in Italy.
In that case, Odoacer would remain in power. Things would start to gradually improve, despite the aforementioned problems that existed throughout most of his reign, since stability, peace , the cooperation with the senatorial aristocracy and time could all allow for the foundations of Odoacer's rule to become even stronger: with stability and peace, the Italian economy would continue its recovery, which in turn would increase state revenues, something that could in turn allow Odoacer to organise the administration of his realm a tad better; the more hostile elements of the Italian aristocracy could start gradually coming around, seeing that for all his shortcomings, Odoacer secured their interests and had in fact restored to them a certain degree of power and authority, while he kept away the more interventionist Constantinopolitan court. Thus, with some luck, Odoacer could manage to build a fairly stable state under his rule; relations with the eastern empire would remain an issue but I think that Odoacer would be more interested in just ruling Italy rather than in playing a much more expanded and complex role as Theodoric did, which in turn means that the eastern empire wouldn't perceive him as a threat to its political and diplomatic interests in the West (as it happened during the reign of Anastasius with the Ostrogoths).
All in all, Italy under Odoacer would resemble more the other Germanic kingdoms established in the lands of the western empire instead of what IOTL became the Ostrogothic state. Italy, due to its relative wealth and its past, would certainly play an important role in western affairs, but wouldn't probably become the hub of a network of alliances like it did during Theodoric's reign. There would be issues with the Vandals, since Geiseric's successors would probably want to overturn the treaty of 477 and regain Sicily, but otherwise, Odoacer would manage to maintain neutral, if not good relations with most other Germanic kingdoms.
However, there is also the possibility of Odoacer overplaying his hand and thus making Zeno or his successor anxious about him. In that case, Constantinople could have decided ITTL to overthrow Odoacer in order to eliminate him. Assuming that the Roman government turns to the Ostrogoths in order for them to carry out the task, then it is very poosible that this time the invasion would fail, since the Ostrogoths would be fairly disorganised due to years of division and they would face stiff resistance from a rather capable military commander. This development could be enough to dissuade the eastern empire from continuing the war, in which case a peace treaty would be concluded between the two sides. What is interesting here is what would it entail. Would Odoacer ask to be recognised as a completely independent ruler, no longer bound by treaties and obligations to Constantinople or would he just ask to be reaffirmed in his old offices and titles?
1)Complete Independence: The first option has some obvious advantages for Odoacer, since it means that the eastern emperor has no legal means to use in order to interfere in Italian affairs. However, there are also major drawbacks: it deprives Odoacer of legitimacy and it would probably put him at odds with the bulk of the Italian senatorial aristocracy, who would perceive such a move being against the idea of the continuation of the western empire, which a significant number of the members of tha class seems to have been harbouring and perhaps a turn to a more "Visigothic" style of government (again, not something that would endear him to local elites). Also, it would be more difficult for Constantinople to accept something like that, since it would signify defeat. Relations between Ravenna and Constantinople would freeze for quite some time and there would be various flashpoints between the two states (the Papacy, Dalmatia, the affairs of the Italian aristocracy etc).
Furthermore, Odoacer would have to deal with with other issues too: the Vandals, under Huneric, would most likely want to overturn the treaty of 477 and get back Sicily (they tried to do so IOTL when Theodoric had invaded Italy). ITTL, they could actually attempt it, exploiting Odoacer's preoccupation with the eastern empire. There is a good chance they could manage to hold it, since Odoacer's army would have still been somewhat bloodied after the war with the Ostrogoths and Odoacer wouldn't probably want to open a new front. Thus, for at least two years, there would be a state of tense peace between the two barbarian states. After that, Odoacer might try to reclaim the island. In that case, he would be embroiled in a war against the Vandals which could have rather negative consequences (see more below).
Relations with the Burgundians would be rather problematic from the beginning, since they were fairly loyal allies to the empire and they wouldn't want to risk losing Constantinople's support, for all that mattered. Perhaps there would be sporadic fighting between the two, as the Roman government would have prodded the Burgundians to launch attacks against Odoacer from time to time.
The Visigoths might be the only case where Odoacer would have some success. They would be in a fairly similar situation and there would be no conflict of interest between the two; the fact that Odoacer was the one that, in the name of emperor Zeno, recognised the territorial gains made at the time of Euric and actually handed over the last remnants of the western empire in Viennensis and Tarraconensis to the Visigoths might not be lost; furthermore, the Visigoths were not interested in staying on the good graces of the eastern empire. Thus, there could be a sort of cooperation between the two states, perhaps against the Burgundians; but apart from that, the Visigoths would probably continue their "splendid isolation" and not interact much with Odoacer.
The other major issues Odoacer would have to deal with would be domestic. For one, the Italo-Roman aristocracy would probably fulminate at these changes, which would represent a major threat on the Roman ideal and related subjects; this (real or perceived) threat on the "traditional" way of life and its related principles could then make the local elites less cooperative with Odoacer, which in turn would increase domestic instability. If Odoacer (or his son in that case) chose to double down on the idea of independence from Constantinople and adopted measures such as the promotion of Arianism and other related policies, it would spell big trouble for their continued rule in Italy, since it would antagonise much of the upper class and the people.
Now, if Odoacer were to be at war with a serious opponent and said war dragged on (most likely with the Vandals, since Odoacer would be under pressure to regain the island but under Huneric, the Vandals were still in good shape), and faced significant domestic opposition from many quarters, this might offer the eastern empire a chance to settle the Italian question definitively. Assuming that Zeno has died by then, his successor propably wouldn't shy away from the use of force. Thus, Odoacer could perhaps be forced to face a three-sided attack (from the Ostrogoths (if they have remained in fairly good shape), the Burgundians and the Romans,) while he is still busy dealing with the Vandals. Perhaps imperial diplomacy could manage to keep Huneric in the war long enough (perhaps with a promise to reaffirm the status of Sicily as a Vandal territory) for Odoacer to find himself under immense pressure. Thus, if the war had broken out in 491, by 494-95, Odoacer would most have most likely been defeated by the enemy coalition.
The question of Italy's fate would be a complex one. There would certainly be many Italian aristocrats that would ask for the restoration of the western empire; however, this could jeopardise relations with the western kingdoms, because of the troubles it would create for the Germanic kings, while many would remember the fact that the western empire dragged Constantinople more than once into costly interventions, sometimes with catastrophic consequences (the campaign against the Vandals). Furthermore, since the sending of Romulus Augustulus' regalia to Constantinople, it would be rather difficult for any emperor to be willing to split authority and prestige and recognise a co-emperor in the West. For all these reasons, the eastern government could probably look at first for someone to succeed Odoacer. The two obvious options would have been the Ostrogoths and the Burgundians. However, both would have been already settled - the Burgundians already had a kindgom in the southern provices of the dioceses of Gaul and the Ostrogoths would have been settled for almost a decade in Dalmatia and could have expanded their influence to most of Pannonia, and the internal divisions would have prevented them from being able for pushing a claim on Italy. Thus in the end, the government at Constantinople might be forced to impose direct rule on Italy as the lesser evil
2) Restored status quo: If Odoacer chose the second option, then we would basically see a return to the pre-war status quo. However, it is questionable whether this state of affairs would have lasted for long. If this was the result of Odoacer's victory, then perhaps, if peace was made under Zeno's sucessor, with the empire having been defeated for a second time in less than 30 years in the West, that Constantinople would shift its focus even more on domestic affairs and the Sassanid empire, thus leaving the Germanic kingdoms (and thus Odoacer's Italy) rather on their own. This, with some luck, could perhaps allow Odoacer to restore good relations with the Italian aristocracy and elites, and thus manage to consolidate his rule. On the other hand, if that settlement was the result of defeat, things would look beak for Odoacer, since he would probably have to face opposition from other leaders of the Heruli and other barbarian elements in Italy. Perhaps a civil war would break out, which could give neighbouring tribes and states the chance to intervene, while the two sides would call upon foreign support. The eastern empire might be interested in weakening Odoacer, but given that in that case, the civil war would most likely be between Odoacer and the more anti-Roman faction, prudence would dictate that Constantinople remain neutral. This however doesn't mean that the Ostrogoths, Alamanni and Burgundians wouldn't be willing to intervene in Italy; even the Visigoths and the Vandals might play a role in the conflict.
The ambitions of these latter groups would be varying in nature. The Vandals would probably want to secure Sicily (it wouldn't be far-fetched to suggest that following Geiseric's death, the Vandals adopted a much more conservative foreign policy, dedicated to protecting the territories already under Vandal control and their areas of interest). The Visigoths and Alaric II would probably want to intervene in order to place Italy under Visigothic influence and they might even team up with the Ostrogoths to achieve that. The Alamanni would probably go in for the loot while the Burgundians would likely interfere if invited.
If Odoacer emerged victorious from such a conflict, he would have been severely weakened and his authority would have been undermined. This in turn could have given another barbarian group or even the Empire an opportunity to intervene in Italy later on; this in turn could force him to rely more and more on the local elites and population. This in turn might lead to a conversion to Catholicism later in his life, in order to gain the support of the Church and the bulk of the populace and shore up his base of support; if something like that happened, then there would be a good chance that his successor, with some luck and a good degree of stability, would have managed to consolidate his kingdom. If Odoacer was defeated, then his successor would probablybe in a worse position than Odoacer, having to deal with a hostile aristocracy and the supporterof the previous king, as well as foreign threats. Furthermore, the precedent this development would have set could have led in a new era of civil wars in Italy akin to the ones that took place in Spain in the 6th century, which would further undermine the foundations of the Italian kingdom; in such a scenario, intervention from the East would probably be not a matter of if, but of when.
(hope my post is good enough
)