WI Admiral Kimmel and/or General Short had reacted more wisely?

[kent]

A war warning was sent to all Pacific Commanders on Nov 25th 1941. What if Kimmel and Short had increased air recons as a result of this war warning? That this increase of air recon had found the Japanese fleet either as it was launching the attack or just after at arround 630am.
Would this have given the USAAC and Navy units time to respond. Would this have ment that part of the US fleet would be caught in the channel
and maybe sunk blocking access to Peal Harbor?

 

[von kressenstein]

I thought read what if they reacted to more whiskey


ok .. so great.. they have an hours notice maybe a little more. 300 jap airplanes are still going to cause effective damage to pearl... at least kimmle doesnt look like a doof.. Besides its Sunday morning in paradise.

Best case several ships make way, The Army air core puts up a fight.. ships are still sunk, We still have a crap tastic several months getting up to speed in the pacific, it may be a tad faster but not by much.

Now what if some trawler happned to spot the IJN a day out?

Would have beeen nice if the Army air core scattered the planes.. but if they had the kinda hindsight your asking for then the question should be if they drank whiskey then sank the task force to the bottom of the pacific.

Actually after reading your post a bit more.

uhm.. If our planes and not just a scout plane, met the IJN after they launched their planes.. uhm.. the japs are screwed. If the Planes meet before launch.. Japs are screwed. If we meet them over the island it will get interesting fast to see what Yamamoto does if he knows the rouge is up. I would wager he would be forced to fight, the Japaneese fleet takes heavy losses and well.. see above.. they are screwed.

No matter what, he knew they only had one crack at it, surpise had to be complete. only dumb thing is they didnt finish the job.

 

[Dave in St. Louis]

I thought read what if they reacted to more whiskey


ok .. so great.. they have an hours notice maybe a little more. 300 jap airplanes are still going to cause effective damage to pearl... at least kimmle doesnt look like a doof.. Besides its Sunday morning in paradise.

Best case several ships make way, The Army air core puts up a fight.. ships are still sunk, We still have a crap tastic several months getting up to speed in the pacific, it may be a tad faster but not by much.

Now what if some trawler happned to spot the IJN a day out?

Would have beeen nice if the Army air core scattered the planes.. but if they had the kinda hindsight your asking for then the question should be if they drank whiskey then sank the task force to the bottom of the pacific.

Actually after reading your post a bit more.

uhm.. If our planes and not just a scout plane, met the IJN after they launched their planes.. uhm.. the japs are screwed. If the Planes meet before launch.. Japs are screwed. If we meet them over the island it will get interesting fast to see what Yamamoto does if he knows the rouge is up. I would wager he would be forced to fight, the Japaneese fleet takes heavy losses and well.. see above.. they are screwed.

No matter what, he knew they only had one crack at it, surpise had to be complete. only dumb thing is they didnt finish the job.

Yamamoto was not there. He was on the Yamato back in (likely) the Inland Sea. Nagumo was the on site commander.

 

[NHBL]

Trawler goes away...

If some trawler had seen the Japanese fleet, it likely would have been promptly sunk before it could get off enough of a signal to do any good. 14" shells can reach almost as far as the trawler can see, if not further. And the trawler might not even have a wireless.

 

[von kressenstein]

Yamamoto was not there. He was on the Yamato back in (likely) the Inland Sea. Nagumo was the on site commander.

eek ment Nagumo... was having a seperate conversation with my son .. brain impass my bad

 

[Bearcat]

If some trawler had seen the Japanese fleet, it likely would have been promptly sunk before it could get off enough of a signal to do any good. 14" shells can reach almost as far as the trawler can see, if not further. And the trawler might not even have a wireless.

You're assuming the shells would hit almost immediately.

The IJN force was going through rough seas. They didn't have radar fire control.

IF the trawler has a radio, it would very likely get a message off before the two rebuilt BCs with Kido Butai find the range and sink her. (Just as the Japanese pickets did on sighting the Doolittle Raid force)

Unfortunately, if its with much warning.

Because if Pearl gets more than a couple of hours warning (force is sighted anytime on the 6th, basically), Kimmel will probably sortie to allow him to maneuver.

And that is a big mistake. The IJN pilots were hitting with torpedoes on moving targets in exercises something like 80% of the time or more. They were damned good. Kimmel would only have Army Air Force air cover (carriers were out of range), and the USAAF was NOT trained or very capable in over-water ops in 1941,

Kimmel could very easily lose a good chunk of his battle line in deep water.

Now two or three hours warning, that's different. That would benefit the US a lot, by getting the fleet on alert, getting steam up, but not really quite ready to sortie. Also Short might do something other than line up his P-40 ducks like a shooting gallery.

The Zero was a very good dogfighter but had monstrous weaknesses overall as a combat aircraft. Getting a good portion of the P-40s at Wheeler and satellite fields airborne isn't going to necessarily make it a grand US victory, but the Japanese are going to pay a price for any success.

So, basically, its a tricky and complex situation, where the result depends a good deal on exactly how much warning the US gets. More is NOT automatically better.

 

[Grimm Reaper]

Nagumo is screwed if surprise has been lost.

Japan is going for broke on all fronts, not just Pearl Harbor, so if his scouts report Pearl Harbor on full alert, heavy losses suffered from AA and P-40s plus battleship row empty and no sign of the American fleet his life just became a living hell.



Bearcat, you're assuming Kimmel's sortie makes for the Japanese fleet. Since he knows at least two carriers are within reach why shouldn't he maneuver out of port to hook up with a pair of carriers for support?

Even if the Japanese spot him, the US fleet is fully alert, the AA is manned on the battleships and many smaller ships, the ships are not lying 'doggo' with various doors impossible to seal on short notice, air support is available in some strength and the Japanese have certainly taken heavier losses from the strike(s) on land-based military installations against AA and Army Air Corps fighters on full alert.

Then you have to wonder what goes on in Nagumo's mind. The surprise attack failed miserably, the entire American battlefleet had time to get up steam and out of port...and where the hell are the American carriers that aren't in Pearl Harbor OR with the battleships?

 

[jaybird]

https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=146574&highlight=kimmel

I had a bit of a DWBI on this a while back...

Now, I don't necessarily think Kimmel is going to lose it all if he sorties. Even the Nevadas, the oldest ships IIRC at Pearl, were quite good at eating torpedoes, and it took 9 to sink Oklahoma. He's going to lose a lot of ships, but IIRC only 4 of his 8 battleships would have been lost in open seas in the condition they were in. BBs, even old ones, are tough, and 50% losses while moored and not firing means substantially lower losses when taking evasive action and defending. Once they get in gun range of the Kido Butai, game over for the IJN, and the two Kongos aren't going to save them.

 

[Kevin in Indy]

Interesting - I have CalBear's timeline bookmarked, but it's been on hiatus. I agree that more warning is not necessarily a good thing. But, is it reasonable for Kimmel and Short to decide the best thing to do is keep all of the gun platforms in harbor, and defend the bases with everything? Probably against doctrine, but if you're going to give them a do-over this might be the best decision they could make. It would seem to me that the incoming American carriers are not going to help enough, unless they launch planes as soon as they're in range of Hawaii and then bug out east to increase the likelihood that the decks survive.

 

[sloreck]

I don't remember exactly when the Japanese consul in Honolulu sent his message concerning what was in Pearl that weekend, but I think of the fleet had sortied on Saturday Nagumo would have known..Lets just assume Kimmel & Short are a little more concerned so.....Short realizes that sabotage not too much of a threat & planes are not lined up, sandbag revetments are in place, and there is CAP over the island during all daylight hours. Likewise AA batteries are at least partially manned and ammo to hand. All leave/liberty in "Cinderella" - back by midnight. Some planes are sent to investigate radar contact, to make sure it is the expected B-17's. Kimmel does likewise with liberty & all ships have enough steam to be underway in 2 hours. 360 degree PBY patrols & Marine/Navy air as ready as Army air.

The first wave gets picked up as they approach Oahu, and first CAP engages not shooting down much but the alarm is given & formations partially disrupted. This give enough time for more fighters to get off the ground to intercept, and AA guns manned & ready both land and ships. By the time the Japanese arrive over Pearl Harbor the ships are at battle stations & condition Zebra is set (all watertight doors shut). Net result is many more planes being shot down by fighters & AA many fewer hits on ships, less destruction at airfields etc. Assuming the 2nd wave still comes in - by then big time everything in the air, also many ships have now sortied. Those that are any distance from Pearl, and they will initially steam away at max speed south (away from suspected location of Japanese fleet until things get organized) simply won't be found. The Japanese planes did not have enough fuel to go looking for ships not at/near Pearl, and it was not in the plan.

At the end of 2 strikes much less damage done, fewer ships sunk, much higher cost to the Japanese in downed aircraft. Nagumo will boogaloo away as fast as possible as soon as the last plane lands. Given the fact of the level of damage to Pearl, some ships at sea having some damage, not knowing exactly where the Japanese are, and needing to get organized, a US fleet not already at sea chasing the Japanese on 12/7/41 won't catch them - a good thing because absent air cover, even a hurt Kido Butai will mess up a bunch of BBs.

America is just as pissed off, naval airpower still has been shown to be effective, and the process of destroying Japanese naval air has been jump started. The USN & USAAF in Hawaii is in much better shape than OTL. The question is, does any of this have any effect on MacArthur, if not the PI campaign will go down pretty much the same.

 

[Bearcat]

Bearcat, you're assuming Kimmel's sortie makes for the Japanese fleet. Since he knows at least two carriers are within reach why shouldn't he maneuver out of port to hook up with a pair of carriers for support?

Even if the Japanese spot him, the US fleet is fully alert, the AA is manned on the battleships and many smaller ships, the ships are not lying 'doggo' with various doors impossible to seal on short notice, air support is available in some strength and the Japanese have certainly taken heavier losses from the strike(s) on land-based military installations against AA and Army Air Corps fighters on full alert.

Then you have to wonder what goes on in Nagumo's mind. The surprise attack failed miserably, the entire American battlefleet had time to get up steam and out of port...and where the hell are the American carriers that aren't in Pearl Harbor OR with the battleships?

Lexington is almost at Midway, too far away to help for a couple of days. Enterprise is closer.... but if Enterprise takes on six carriers with the skilled pilots of the 1941 Kido Butai, the 'Big E' becomes a minor speedbump on the bottom of the Pacific.

Old BB AA guns are not the effing righteous flak of 1943-45, they are old and obsolete models like the 1.1" gun and .50 cal machine guns. No Oerlikons, no Bofors, and the 5" guns are mostly dated models, not the excellent war-built version of the 5"/38 with the amazing (for its time) fire control. They will take a toll of the Japanese, but not enough to break up the attacks (see the OTL second wave for an idea).

Nagumo will be worried but remember the plan for PH was that if the force was sighted within 24 hours of Hawaii they would fight their way in and carry out the attack. Nagumo wasn't one to deviate from the plan.

What happens after the initial strike will be interesting. Nagumo's ships have a considerable speed advantage and will have expended a number of aircraft, a lot of ordnance and avgas. I think he hits hard, two waves as OTL, with the best result he can get, then retires as fast as he can. The Cult of the Third Wave has even less traction here.

 

[NHBL]

Trawler warning...

I'd say the odds of a trawler's warning making a difference are minor, even if we assume it has wireless.

First of all, the wireless is likely unmanned, since the crew is fishing. It might not even be turned on--and they take time to warm up.

However, assuming that it is on, and someone's using it, will the crew even know the warships aren't friendly before shells start to fall? And when the shells do start to fall, will the radio operator be collected enough to make a coherent report?

Assuming he does, and the signal gets out, all that will be known is that he's being fired on. He's unlikely to know what sort of ship, and may be too panicked to give a position report.

Even if a coherent report is sent, how long until it reaches appropriate authorities--and do they believe it?

It could get through, but Id say that, ultmately, the odds are against any word getting out. Kido Butai was ready to sink neutral ships--IIRC, the plan, if running into any shipping on the route they took, was "sink it and forget it," so they were primed.

The Japanese ship that reported the Doolittle Raid only got a short message off, and it was a picket, there specifficly to watch for enemy ships.

 

[kent]

My thinking on this was had Kimmel and/or Short taken the War Warning and and increased the air recon to a full 360 arround the island
then a morning recon might have either seen the IJN Fleet or the aircraft on the way for the attack. Had that happened then some USAAC fighters
might have gotten airborne. Not a lot of them as it was Sunday morning with a lot of hangovers from Saturday night. Some ships might have tried to do what the Navada attempted and sortie from Peal. Should the channel become blocked by a sunk BB or Heavy CA then what happens? Also with the War Warning what if Kimmel had sen a few ships to the PI with a plan to drop supplies off at Guam? A couple of CA added to the DEI
effort might have helped. Lots of what if's but Both Kimmel and Short thought that nothing could happen to them at Peal. Thanks for the responces this was my first effort at starting a WI thread.

 

[usertron2020]

How to do it?

Expel the Consulate. Cancel the Midway and Wake operations. Bring the Saratoga in from California at fleet speed. Refuel the Saratoga. Scatter the air forces to the other islands. Sortie the Fleet to the East two hundred miles, then veer due north at fleet speed. Turn due west. Hit the Nagumo Force on Saturday, 12/6/41 as the Kido Butai is refueling with a surface attack at dawn. Priority targets, in order: carrier flight decks, destroyers, battleships, cruisers, supply ships. Lexington, Saratoga, and Enterprise air wings finish off survivors. Wake up, because you're obviously dreaming.

 

[Riain]

What about passive defences like putting some warships at Liahani (spelling) roads and other anchorages and dispersing aircraft both in revetments on main bases and to sattelite airfields? Then everything could still go wrong with the warning and the losses wouldn't be as bad.

Better still, have these done, and then have the USS Ward report its attack on the midget sub at 6.37 leading to a higher alert level resulting in the air raid being properly identified.

 

[usertron2020]

What about passive defences like putting some warships at Liahani (spelling) roads and other anchorages and dispersing aircraft both in revetments on main bases and to sattelite airfields? Then everything could still go wrong with the warning and the losses wouldn't be as bad.

Better still, have these done, and then have the USS Ward report its attack on the midget sub at 6.37 leading to a higher alert level resulting in the air raid being properly identified.

Confirmation! I want confirmation....zzzzzzzzzzzzzz

 

[TOM KIMMEL]

CONSIDER THIS:
On December 7, 1941 the President of the United States was asked: “How did the Japanese catch us with our pants down?” The Congress of the United States later asked: “one enigmatical and paramount question . . . . [w]hy was it possible for a Pearl Harbor to occur?” On December 11, 1941, the Director of the FBI, J. Edgar Hoover, thought he had the answer and sent it to the President immediately: Army and Navy Intelligence in Washington, DC had learned the entire Japanese attack plan days before the attack, and sent it to Admiral Kimmel, the Commander-in-Chief of the Pacific Fleet in Hawaii, who did nothing about it.

Supreme Court Associate Justice Owen Roberts, Chairman of the Roberts Commission, the tribunal immediately appointed to investigate the Pearl Harbor disaster, tried but could not prove that Kimmel had this information and failed to act on it. But then Roberts put blinders on and failed to follow Mr. Hoover’s logically suggested written investigative leads in Washington, D.C., as to whether this information was available in Washington and simply not sent to Hawaii. And then later, Roberts inexplicably lied to Congress about where he got the original allegation against Kimmel.
FOR DETAILS AND MUCH MORE SEE MY WEBSITE AT:
HTTP://WWW.PEARLHARBOR911ATTACKS.COM.
Regards,
Tom Kimmel

 

[Grimm Reaper]

Bearcat is correct, of course, that there can't be a third wave at Pearl in this TL. There may not even be a second if the IJN takes heavy losses and the battle line has had time to exit Pearl as the American fleet MUST be found above all else.

Further, as Nagumo well knows, the IJN has an entire series of plans over an extended period, requiring many Japanese ships to literally charge from one operation to the next.

Had heavier losses come at the start things could have gone pear shaped for Japan very early.​

If he has to return home without striking the American fleet, which is unlikely but not impossible if Kimmel chooses to avoid battle entirely, the US Pacific fleet will have ten battleships and five carriers before January and the IJN is going to find it hard to carry out so many operations when they have to hold together a sufficient force to watch for the Americans.

 

[CalBear]

The best possible hope for the U.S. at Pearl (short of the scenario laid out in my T/L) goes something like this:

1/3 of fighters moved to dispersal fields as far away as Maui.

1/3 of Fighters armed and fueled at each field, including dispersal fields, with orders already in place to go to a "Ready 15/Hot Pad" status if any sign of Enemy activity is detected.

12-18 Fighters up on a Dawn Patrol extending out 80 miles or so.

1/3 of AAA guns at fully armed and ready status with crews in barracks but with orders already in place to move to position if any sign of enemy activity is detected.

All ships have 1/3 ready watch set, with ready ammo at all AAA positions.

These are all potentially actions that the Commanders could have taken following the War Warning.

You now get into luck.

Radar operators reach Duty Officer who then decides to have one or more Dawn Patrol pairs investigate contact simply as practice in working with radar site.

OOD on several of the ships in Pearl react to the Ward contact report (especially the actual firing of weapons) and set a higher degree of alert, including securing watertight doors in engineering spaces.

Fighters intercept Float plane sent by IJN for final recon of harbor. Intercept reported and reacted to by Duty officer at Hickam.

Alarm issued at 07:15 local. Entire military in Hawaii wakes up and swears vengeance on asshole who called practice alert on #$^%& Sunday morning. everyone shuffles off to station while fighting hangover.

IJN 1st wave arrives to find 50-60 fighters up with rest warming up on ground, AAA batteries 60-70% manned and armed, ships with full water tight integrity set and at least 50 of AAA manned.

This would be the best possible scenario, JNAF losses would at least triple in this situation while American losses would go down by anywhere from 30-50%.The USN still loses three BB, at least until they can be salvaged, but the IJN loses close to two hundred aircraft (including write-offs due to battle damage) in the two waves. Wake may still be overwhelmed, but with the air wing losses Nagumo may not be ordered to put his force into harms way since the location of the American carriers will still be unknown.

 

[Wolfman]

The best possible hope for the U.S. at Pearl (short of the scenario laid out in my T/L) goes something like this:

1/3 of fighters moved to dispersal fields as far away as Maui.

1/3 of Fighters armed and fueled at each field, including dispersal fields, with orders already in place to go to a "Ready 15/Hot Pad" status if any sign of Enemy activity is detected.

12-18 Fighters up on a Dawn Patrol extending out 80 miles or so.

1/3 of AAA guns at fully armed and ready status with crews in barracks but with orders already in place to move to position if any sign of enemy activity is detected.

All ships have 1/3 ready watch set, with ready ammo at all AAA positions.

These are all potentially actions that the Commanders could have taken following the War Warning.

You now get into luck.

Radar operators reach Duty Officer who then decides to have one or more Dawn Patrol pairs investigate contact simply as practice in working with radar site.

OOD on several of the ships in Pearl react to the Ward contact report (especially the actual firing of weapons) and set a higher degree of alert, including securing watertight doors in engineering spaces.

Fighters intercept Float plane sent by IJN for final recon of harbor. Intercept reported and reacted to by Duty officer at Hickam.

Alarm issued at 07:15 local. Entire military in Hawaii wakes up and swears vengeance on asshole who called practice alert on #$^%& Sunday morning. everyone shuffles off to station while fighting hangover.

IJN 1st wave arrives to find 50-60 fighters up with rest warming up on ground, AAA batteries 60-70% manned and armed, ships with full water tight integrity set and at least 50 of AAA manned.

This would be the best possible scenario, JNAF losses would at least triple in this situation while American losses would go down by anywhere from 30-50%.The USN still loses three BB, at least until they can be salvaged, but the IJN loses close to two hundred aircraft (including write-offs due to battle damage) in the two waves. Wake may still be overwhelmed, but with the air wing losses Nagumo may not be ordered to put his force into harms way since the location of the American carriers will still be unknown.

This scenario, I like.