WI: a set of 19th century PODs

[TheseusDeuteros]

What would be the consequences of the following PODs (not all of them are PODs, it's more of a TL-outline) happening in one single ATL?
(By the way, feel free to discuss the plausibility of the PODs too, but please focus on consequences. Also, see if there are important butterflies I missed. Number 1, 6, 8, 12, 13 and 14 in particular still need details and improving. If anyone could help with that, that'd be really appreciated!)

1. The Treaty of Turin is not signed, because Italy does not agree on France's annexation of Nice and Savoy. A war over Nice, Monaco, Savoy and Corsica develops, the Franco-Italian War of 1860. Eventually it comes to a stalemate, which does not officially end the war, in 1862. Italy comprises Nice, Monaco, Corsica, Savoy, all of the Kingdom of Naples, San Marino, Venetia and parts of the Papal States. Austria had joined the French, because of disputes over Italian-majority areas in Austria. The Roman Question remains, though. Italy claims what is left of the Papal States, but does not control it.

2. William Seward gains the presidential nomination in 1860 instead of Abraham Lincoln and also becomes president. And:
(a) The Crittenden Comprise is succesful in 1860.
(b) A civil war between North and South is avoided.
(c) The Second Mexican-American war starts, because the Crittenden Compromise allows slavery in new states and territories south of the parallel 36°30′ north, and provoked by the French intervention in Mexico.
(d) The United States win this Second Mexican-American war, gaining Sonora, Chihuahua, Baja California and Rio Grande, and relations between France and the United States worsen.

3. The states of New England secede from the United States, due to anti-imperialist and anti-slavery reasons, in the late 1860s. The Federate States of New England are formed.

4. Cuba and Puerto Rico secede from Spain; they declare independence and war against Spain (like the Ten Year's War) in 1865. This is followed by annexation by the United States, so that the Cuban planters and business owners could preserve slavery and remain out of Spain's hands.

5. A consequence of the Crittenden Compromise is the purchase of slaves from the Pacific Islands, which are non-African and therefore not covered by US constitutional prohibitions on specifically African slave trade, which is, due to the geography of the Pacific, beyond the capacity of the British Royal Navy to interdict. This increases tensions with Great Britain which is on the way to the abolition slavery.

6. The Austro-Prussian War of 1866 occurs differently. The result is Austria gaining Bavaria (without Franconia) and Prussia gaining the Czech lands as well as all of all other German states. Germany, without Austria and Bavaria though, is united.

7. There is no Austro-Hungarian Compromise in 1867 (no 'Ausgleich').

8. The Franco-Prussian War of 1870 is won by France instead of Prussia. France retains Alsace-Lorraine and gains small southern areas of the Rhineland and Luxembourg.

9. The April Uprising in Bulgaria in 1876 escalates:
(a) Russia is more concerned about protection of the Slavs in the Balkans against the Turks and also sees the possibility of annexing lands. Therefore, Russia declares official political and financial support for the Bulgarian rebels on April 30, 1876. Russia also prepares for an intervention.
(b)

News of massacres of Bulgarians reached Istanbul in May and June 1876 through Bulgarian students at Robert College, the American college in the city. Faculty members at Robert College wrote to the British Ambassador and to the Istanbul correspondents of The Times and the London Daily News.
An article about the massacres in the Daily News on June 23 provoked a question in Parliament about Britain's support for Turkey, and demands for an investigation. Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli promised to conduct an investigation about what had really happened.
In July, the British Embassy in Istanbul sent a second secretary, Walter Baring, to Bulgaria to investigate the stories of atrocities. Baring did not speak Bulgarian (although he did speak Turkish) and British policy was officially pro-Turkish, so the Bulgarian community in Istanbul feared he would not report the complete story. They asked the American Consul in Istanbul, Eugene Schuyler, to conduct his own investigation.
Schuyler set off for Bulgaria on July 23, four days after Baring. He was accompanied by a well-known American war correspondent, Januarius MacGahan, by a German correspondent, and by a Russian diplomat, Prince Aleksei Tseretelev.
Schuyler's group spent three weeks visiting Batak and other villages where massacres had taken place. Schuyler's official report, published in November 1876, said that fifty-eight villages in Bulgaria had been destroyed, five monasteries demolished, and fifteen thousand people in all massacred. The report was reprinted as a booklet and widely circulated in Europe.
Baring's report to the British government about the massacres was similar, but put the number of victims at about twelve thousand.
A century later, one historian claimed that the number killed was exaggerated, and was closer to three thousand. But it is difficult to ignore the accounts of MacGahan, Schuyler and Baring, who visited the massacre sites three months after they occurred, and saw many of the unburied corpses. The actual number of victims will never be known.
MacGahan's vivid articles from Bulgaria moved British public opinion against Turkey. He described in particular what he had seen in the town of Batak, where five thousand of a total of seven thousand residents had been slaughtered, beheaded or burned alive by Turkish irregulars, and their bodies left in piles around the town square and the church. He described "Skulls with gray hair still attached to them, dark tresses which had once adorned the heads of maidens, the mutilated trunks of men, the rotting limbs of children..."

Instead, MacGahan and some other members of the investigation group are not able to do their job. They fall ill upon arrival in Bulgaria in July, probably due to food poisoning. The correspondents have to go back home; the investigation is postponed. This means no detailed accounts by MacGahan and Schuyler of the Bulgarian massacres. Baring does not report the horrors of Bulgaria to the British government either. After departing for Bulgaria, he is called back to Britain. The government decides to carry out one single, bigger investigation, planned two months later.
But as the conflict developes, there is no time to wait for this investigation. Since Russia has openly declared support for Bulgaria, now not only politically but also financially by arming the rebels, Britain has to pick a side. In fear of Russian domination in the Balkans and Russian power growing in general, Britain sides with the Ottomans in July.
(c) Greece wants to side with the Bulgarians, because that way - if they would get on the winning side - they would be able to expand north and east and they could make a deal with Bulgaria about Thrace. This would allow them to check Bulgarian expansion and have influence on the rise of Bulgarian power. However, first Great Britain pressures Greece not to join the opposing side of the growing war, but eventually though, the Greeks do side with the Bulgarians, fighting Ottoman presence in the Balkans.
(d) Serbia joins the Russian-Bulgarian side of the war too, because of past and present hostilities with the Ottomans, and in desire of uniting all Serbs after a succesful war.
(e) The growing war coincides with the Montenegrin-Ottoman War and the Herzegovina Uprising, so the Montenegrins and Serbs in Herzegovina are on the Russian-Bulgarian-Serbian side too.
(f) Romania joins the same side to fight for independence.
(g) To preserve the status quo, Austria joins the Ottomans and British.

10.

On the morning of 20 April 1879, Alexander was briskly walking towards the Square of the Guards Staff and faced Alexander Soloviev, a 33-year-old former student. Having seen a menacing revolver in his hands, the Emperor fled in a zigzag pattern. Soloviev fired five times but missed. He was hanged on 28 May, after being sentenced to death.

Alexander Soloviev succesfully attempts to kill Alexander II in 1876 instead of 1879.

11. Great Britain experiences public protests against the war it is fighting. The British do not support their country fighting alongside the Ottomans who had massacred Bulgarians (the news of the massacres has by now reached Britain).

12. France joins Great Britain, the Ottoman Empire and Austria. Italy joins the other side, because of disputes with Austria and France (Trentino, Corisica, Roman Question etc. etc.). Because the hostilities of the Franco-Prussian war had not vanished, Prussia joins the side that opposes France.

13. The continuously growing war, now called 'the Global War', becomes more of a real world war when the United States joins on the side that opposes Great Britain. Mexico sides with the other allied powers.

14. Eventually (after the course of the war still to be researched and determined), the Ottomans, British, French, Austrians and all their allies lose the war. Communism rises in the Ottoman Empire, overthrows the Ottomans and the Social Turkish Republic forms as nationalistic revolts break down the empire. The Netherlands loses Limburg to Prussian-dominated Germany, Belgium is annexed entirely by Germany, as well as Alsace and Lorraine.

---

I'm aware I still need to do a lot of research to work this out. This is more a list of rough notes rather than a worked-out timeline. However, feel free to point out any nonsense I wrote down Help is greatly appreciated.

 

[Wendell]

That situation is simply not plausible. History is not a series of pivotal moments, but is rather an epic that is forever developing. Some of those things could be done in the same timeline, but most of them could not.

 

[Rich Rostrom]

1. The Treaty of Turin is not signed, because Italy does not agree on France's annexation of Nice and Savoy. A war over Nice, Monaco, Savoy and Corsica develops, the Franco-Italian War of 1860.

Italy gets thrashed.

2. William Seward gains the presidential nomination in 1860 instead of Abraham Lincoln and also becomes president. And:

(a) The Crittenden Comprise is succesful in 1860.
(b) A civil war between North and South is avoided.

Nope. Crittenden offered his compromise on 18 December; the South Carolina convention voted for secession 20 December. Mississippi, Florida, and Alabama all acted by 11 January 1861. Even if Seward supported the Compromise, there would not be time for its adoption to prevent these secession declarations; or even to stop Georgia (19 January) or Louisiana (26 January). Texas waited till 1 February, but that was more due to the time required for delegates to gather from the remote parts of that vast state than from any reluctance; the state was thoroughly dominated by secessionist "Fire-Eaters".

So the war was going to happen anyway. Seward had fantasies of resolving the crisis peacefully, but it wasn't going to happen.

(c) The Second Mexican-American war starts, because the Crittenden Compromise allows slavery in new states and territories south of the parallel 36°30′ north, and provoked by the French intervention in Mexico.
(d) The United States win this Second Mexican-American war, gaining Sonora, Chihuahua, Baja California and Rio Grande, and relations between France and the United States worsen.

Seward had thoughts about "throwing the French out of Mexico"; but there is no possible way that he would consent to annexation of Mexican territory for slavery explansion.

3. The states of New England secede from the United States, due to anti-imperialist and anti-slavery reasons, in the late 1860s. The Federate States of New England are formed.

Utterly impossible, both for legal and economic reasons, even in the circumstances suggested. Nor politically viable. It might catch on in Massachusetts, but not Connecticut or New Hampshire.

 

[TheseusDeuteros]

That situation is simply not plausible. History is not a series of pivotal moments, but is rather an epic that is forever developing. Some of those things could be done in the same timeline, but most of them could not.

I understand.
Still too implausible if 1, 3 and 7 are left out?

 

[TheseusDeuteros]

Italy gets thrashed.

Okay.

Nope. Crittenden offered his compromise on 18 December; the South Carolina convention voted for secession 20 December. Mississippi, Florida, and Alabama all acted by 11 January 1861. Even if Seward supported the Compromise, there would not be time for its adoption to prevent these secession declarations; or even to stop Georgia (19 January) or Louisiana (26 January). Texas waited till 1 February, but that was more due to the time required for delegates to gather from the remote parts of that vast state than from any reluctance; the state was thoroughly dominated by secessionist "Fire-Eaters".

So the war was going to happen anyway. Seward had fantasies of resolving the crisis peacefully, but it wasn't going to happen.

I can understand what you're saying, but can you explain to me why the Crittenden Compromise wouldn't have been able to avert the war?
I mean, yes, true, the states were already about to vote for secession, but wouldn't it change the minds of some delegates?
Also, would it then be possible to prevent the war with the Crittenden Compromise if the POD is that besides being succesful, it is also issued earlier? Or is the crisis simply doomed to inevitably develop into a war?

Seward had thoughts about "throwing the French out of Mexico"; but there is no possible way that he would consent to annexation of Mexican territory for slavery explansion.

Oh... Why, if I may ask? Because if this way he can prevent the war, why is there no possible way he would accept it?

Utterly impossible, both for legal and economic reasons, even in the circumstances suggested. Nor politically viable. It might catch on in Massachusetts, but not Connecticut or New Hampshire.

Okay forget this part then.

 

[katchen]

Crittenden's Compromise is a bundle of constitutional amendments. They guarantee the survival of slavery where it exists but they also guarantee that slavery can continue to be forbidden in states where it is forbidden. In other words, the Compromise protects against a Supreme Court following up the Dred Scott Decision with a Dred Scott II declaring all northern abolition legislation unconstitutional on the grounds that it interferes with a man's right to his property--something that is of very real concern in the North. As such, this Compromise is one that can be sold to legislatures in many Northern States as well as border Southern states. So if it passes Congress, it goes to the states for ratification.
And Articles of Secession can be rescinded as easily as they were passed. It is entirely possible, maybe even likely that if President Seward avoids military action in the months from August to September 1861 that some of the Southern State legislatures may start to rescind their Articles of Secession after ratifying the Crittenden Amendments. And unlike Lincoln, I believe that Seward will be inclined to give those states that kind of time, and if no action is forthcoming, put the screws to the South with a naval and land blockade rather than take the drastic step of calling up state militias that are likely to lead to MORE states like North Carolina and Virginia that haven't as yet seceded doing so.

 

[katchen]

What would be the consequences of the following PODs (not all of them are PODs, it's more of a TL-outline) happening in one single ATL?
(By the way, feel free to discuss the plausibility of the PODs too, but please focus on consequences. Also, see if there are important butterflies I missed. Number 1, 6, 8, 12, 13 and 14 in particular still need details and improving. If anyone could help with that, that'd be really appreciated!)

1. The Treaty of Turin is not signed, because Italy does not agree on France's annexation of Nice and Savoy. A war over Nice, Monaco, Savoy and Corsica develops, the Franco-Italian War of 1860. Eventually it comes to a stalemate, which does not officially end the war, in 1862. Italy comprises Nice, Monaco, Corsica, Savoy, all of the Kingdom of Naples, San Marino, Venetia and parts of the Papal States. Austria had joined the French, because of disputes over Italian-majority areas in Austria. The Roman Question remains, though. Italy claims what is left of the Papal States, but does not control it.

2. William Seward gains the presidential nomination in 1860 instead of Abraham Lincoln and also becomes president. And:
(a) The Crittenden Comprise is succesful in 1860.
(b) A civil war between North and South is avoided.
(c) The Second Mexican-American war starts, because the Crittenden Compromise allows slavery in new states and territories south of the parallel 36°30′ north, and provoked by the French intervention in Mexico.
(d) The United States win this Second Mexican-American war, gaining Sonora, Chihuahua, Baja California and Rio Grande, and relations between France and the United States worsen.

3. The states of New England secede from the United States, due to anti-imperialist and anti-slavery reasons, in the late 1860s. The Federate States of New England are formed.

4. Cuba and Puerto Rico secede from Spain; they declare independence and war against Spain (like the Ten Year's War) in 1865. This is followed by annexation by the United States, so that the Cuban planters and business owners could preserve slavery and remain out of Spain's hands.

5. A consequence of the Crittenden Compromise is the purchase of slaves from the Pacific Islands, which are non-African and therefore not covered by US constitutional prohibitions on specifically African slave trade, which is, due to the geography of the Pacific, beyond the capacity of the British Royal Navy to interdict. This increases tensions with Great Britain which is on the way to the abolition slavery.

6. The Austro-Prussian War of 1866 occurs differently. The result is Austria gaining Bavaria (without Franconia) and Prussia gaining the Czech lands as well as all of all other German states. Germany, without Austria and Bavaria though, is united.

7. There is no Austro-Hungarian Compromise in 1867 (no 'Ausgleich').

8. The Franco-Prussian War of 1870 is won by France instead of Prussia. France retains Alsace-Lorraine and gains small southern areas of the Rhineland and Luxembourg.

9. The April Uprising in Bulgaria in 1876 escalates:
(a) Russia is more concerned about protection of the Slavs in the Balkans against the Turks and also sees the possibility of annexing lands. Therefore, Russia declares official political and financial support for the Bulgarian rebels on April 30, 1876. Russia also prepares for an intervention.
(b)


Instead, MacGahan and some other members of the investigation group are not able to do their job. They fall ill upon arrival in Bulgaria in July, probably due to food poisoning. The correspondents have to go back home; the investigation is postponed. This means no detailed accounts by MacGahan and Schuyler of the Bulgarian massacres. Baring does not report the horrors of Bulgaria to the British government either. After departing for Bulgaria, he is called back to Britain. The government decides to carry out one single, bigger investigation, planned two months later.
But as the conflict developes, there is no time to wait for this investigation. Since Russia has openly declared support for Bulgaria, now not only politically but also financially by arming the rebels, Britain has to pick a side. In fear of Russian domination in the Balkans and Russian power growing in general, Britain sides with the Ottomans in July.
(c) Greece wants to side with the Bulgarians, because that way - if they would get on the winning side - they would be able to expand north and east and they could make a deal with Bulgaria about Thrace. This would allow them to check Bulgarian expansion and have influence on the rise of Bulgarian power. However, first Great Britain pressures Greece not to join the opposing side of the growing war, but eventually though, the Greeks do side with the Bulgarians, fighting Ottoman presence in the Balkans.
(d) Serbia joins the Russian-Bulgarian side of the war too, because of past and present hostilities with the Ottomans, and in desire of uniting all Serbs after a succesful war.
(e) The growing war coincides with the Montenegrin-Ottoman War and the Herzegovina Uprising, so the Montenegrins and Serbs in Herzegovina are on the Russian-Bulgarian-Serbian side too.
(f) Romania joins the same side to fight for independence.
(g) To preserve the status quo, Austria joins the Ottomans and British.

10.
Alexander Soloviev succesfully attempts to kill Alexander II in 1876 instead of 1879.

11. Great Britain experiences public protests against the war it is fighting. The British do not support their country fighting alongside the Ottomans who had massacred Bulgarians (the news of the massacres has by now reached Britain).

12. France joins Great Britain, the Ottoman Empire and Austria. Italy joins the other side, because of disputes with Austria and France (Trentino, Corisica, Roman Question etc. etc.). Because the hostilities of the Franco-Prussian war had not vanished, Prussia joins the side that opposes France.

13. The continuously growing war, now called 'the Global War', becomes more of a real world war when the United States joins on the side that opposes Great Britain. Mexico sides with the other allied powers.

14. Eventually (after the course of the war still to be researched and determined), the Ottomans, British, French, Austrians and all their allies lose the war. Communism rises in the Ottoman Empire, overthrows the Ottomans and the Social Turkish Republic forms as nationalistic revolts break down the empire. The Netherlands loses Limburg to Prussian-dominated Germany, Belgium is annexed entirely by Germany, as well as Alsace and Lorraine.

---

I'm aware I still need to do a lot of research to work this out. This is more a list of rough notes rather than a worked-out timeline. However, feel free to point out any nonsense I wrote down Help is greatly appreciated.

About this:
1.One of the things that Italy wants and will attempt to take in this TL is Tunisia--and Libya. Having Tunisia and Libya this early in the 19th Century is likely to lead to Italy expanding across the Sahara Desert and all the way to the Congo region as soon as it can build a railroad that far south across the Sahara. And that stretch of the Sahara is Hamada ( stones) and Reg bare rock) rather than erg (dunes) which makes it very easy to lay track over.
2.If Russia is fighting the Ottomans on behalf of the Christians of the Balkans, it will also fight on behalf of the Armenian and Assyrian Christians of Armenia, Eastern Turkey and the Assyrians in the Mosul region of IOTL Iraq. I expect Russia to expand all the way to Mosul. Perhaps even west across the Al Shams desert to Palestine.

 

[TheseusDeuteros]

Crittenden's Compromise is a bundle of constitutional amendments. They guarantee the survival of slavery where it exists but they also guarantee that slavery can continue to be forbidden in states where it is forbidden. In other words, the Compromise protects against a Supreme Court following up the Dred Scott Decision with a Dred Scott II declaring all northern abolition legislation unconstitutional on the grounds that it interferes with a man's right to his property--something that is of very real concern in the North. As such, this Compromise is one that can be sold to legislatures in many Northern States as well as border Southern states. So if it passes Congress, it goes to the states for ratification.
And Articles of Secession can be rescinded as easily as they were passed. It is entirely possible, maybe even likely that if President Seward avoids military action in the months from August to September 1861 that some of the Southern State legislatures may start to rescind their Articles of Secession after ratifying the Crittenden Amendments. And unlike Lincoln, I believe that Seward will be inclined to give those states that kind of time, and if no action is forthcoming, put the screws to the South with a naval and land blockade rather than take the drastic step of calling up state militias that are likely to lead to MORE states like North Carolina and Virginia that haven't as yet seceded doing so.

Thank you, this gives me hope that my ideas aren't all implausible (well, you gave me them after all, so it makes sense you're able to explain it).

 

[TheseusDeuteros]

About this:
1.One of the things that Italy wants and will attempt to take in this TL is Tunisia--and Libya. Having Tunisia and Libya this early in the 19th Century is likely to lead to Italy expanding across the Sahara Desert and all the way to the Congo region as soon as it can build a railroad that far south across the Sahara. And that stretch of the Sahara is Hamada ( stones) and Reg bare rock) rather than erg (dunes) which makes it very easy to lay track over.
2.If Russia is fighting the Ottomans on behalf of the Christians of the Balkans, it will also fight on behalf of the Armenian and Assyrian Christians of Armenia, Eastern Turkey and the Assyrians in the Mosul region of IOTL Iraq. I expect Russia to expand all the way to Mosul. Perhaps even west across the Al Shams desert to Palestine.

How about the Kurds and Azerbaijanis then (also in Persia...)?

 

[lukedalton]

a war over the Treaty of Turin is very very difficult, the only think plausible (and i use the term very loosely) is that Italy after only obtaining Lombardia (and so nullify the Treaty, in OTL Nappy was Ok in not demanding anything due to the non fullfilment of the treaty) decide to not ask permission/protection of France for the annexation of Toscana, Parma, Modena and Romagna and so give the mentioned Savoy and Nice to France for compensation.
If A-H don't intervene it can be a stalemate, the reason of Nappy desire for that zone was the fact that they are the best defense line possibe on both the side of the border plus the italian population can be easily fired up and rallied beyond the goverment by this war and Napoleon III can face problem at home for waging another war this time just for his wounded ego, plus Italy remain a buffer with A-H so is not useless andThe Kingdom of the two sicilies can be obtained OTL; this will have the effect to make Italy almost a pariah nation in Europe with no allies and support (except Prussia later but will not last long due to the loss of the war with France) and so the possibilities of aquire Tunisa or Libya will be zero.

 

[TheseusDeuteros]

a war over the Treaty of Turin is very very difficult, the only think plausible (and i use the term very loosely) is that Italy after only obtaining Lombardia (and so nullify the Treaty, in OTL Nappy was Ok in not demanding anything due to the non fullfilment of the treaty) decide to not ask permission/protection of France for the annexation of Toscana, Parma, Modena and Romagna and so give the mentioned Savoy and Nice to France for compensation.
If A-H don't intervene it can be a stalemate, the reason of Nappy desire for that zone was the fact that they are the best defense line possibe on both the side of the border plus the italian population can be easily fired up and rallied beyond the goverment by this war and Napoleon III can face problem at home for waging another war this time just for his wounded ego, plus Italy remain a buffer with A-H so is not useless andThe Kingdom of the two sicilies can be obtained OTL; this will have the effect to make Italy almost a pariah nation in Europe with no allies and support (except Prussia later but will not last long due to the loss of the war with France) and so the possibilities of aquire Tunisa or Libya will be zero.

Okay, I think I understand what you're saying. But is there any other way Italy does retain Nice and Savoy? (And possibly even gain Corsica?)

I also found this thread on the topic, by chance: https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=301590.
In fact, my question simply is: how - if possible at all - can Italy unite completely, retain Savoy and Nice, not become an 'ally-less', weak, disorganised state, gain Corsica (but leave this one out if you must), and, lastly, acquire Tunesia or Libya (or maybe somewhere else, for that matter).

 

[Wendell]

Okay, I think I understand what you're saying. But is there any other way Italy does retain Nice and Savoy? (And possibly even gain Corsica?)

I also found this thread on the topic, by chance: https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=301590.
In fact, my question simply is: how - if possible at all - can Italy unite completely, retain Savoy and Nice, not become an 'ally-less', weak, disorganised state, gain Corsica (but leave this one out if you must), and, lastly, acquire Tunesia or Libya (or maybe somewhere else, for that matter).

Maybe by joining the Franco-Prussian War?

 

[TheseusDeuteros]

Maybe by joining the Franco-Prussian War?

Oh, I don't know why I didn't see this post before...
Anyway, yeah, that might be it. On the French side then, obviously.

 

[Wendell]

Oh, I don't know why I didn't see this post before...
Anyway, yeah, that might be it. On the French side then, obviously.

The problem with my suggestion is that it's not compatible with your desire to have Prussia lose the war with France.

 

[TheseusDeuteros]

The problem with my suggestion is that it's not compatible with your desire to have Prussia lose the war with France.

Why? Because if Italy joins the French then the Prussians have another enemy, so they're more likely to win. Is the problem then that Italy, allied to France, cannot demand Nice and Savoy back, let alone ask for Corsica? Hmm, that makes sense. But what if Italy demands these areas in return for support in the war? Is there any, slight, chance France would agree with that?

 

[lukedalton]

Why? Because if Italy joins the French then the Prussians have another enemy, so they're more likely to win. Is the problem then that Italy, allied to France, cannot demand Nice and Savoy back, let alone ask for Corsica? Hmm, that makes sense. But what if Italy demands these areas in return for support in the war? Is there any, slight, chance France would agree with that?

Out of this the most probable request will be Nice, the only zone annexed by France really really Italian and that created controversy ceding (it was the birthplace of Garibaldi) but it will be a nice bonus the principal objective of any negotiation it will be Rome and as second Tunisia.

 

[Wendell]

Why? Because if Italy joins the French then the Prussians have another enemy, so they're more likely to win. Is the problem then that Italy, allied to France, cannot demand Nice and Savoy back, let alone ask for Corsica? Hmm, that makes sense. But what if Italy demands these areas in return for support in the war? Is there any, slight, chance France would agree with that?

No Bonaparte is ever going to be forced to give up one hectare of France unless by armed force.

 

[TheseusDeuteros]

No Bonaparte is ever going to be forced to give up one hectare of France unless by armed force.

Shame. Stupid Bonapartes, never compromising.

 

[Wendell]

Shame. Stupid Bonapartes, never compromising.

It's not just the Bonapartes; in general, it is frowned upon for a leader to give up parts of the country. Just ask Santa Ana about the Gadsden Purchase

 

[TheseusDeuteros]

It's not just the Bonapartes; in general, it is frowned upon for a leader to give up parts of the country. Just ask Santa Ana about the Gadsden Purchase

How about the following? Italy does accept the Treaty of Turin but fails to capture the Kingdom of the two Sicilies. (Sicily is captured by sea from Sardinia, but Naples resists.) Italy turns to France asking for support. France does not react and a stalemate appears in Italy. But two years later, in 1862, France offers support, provided Italy (the Kingdom of Sardinia, in fact) promises to support France against Prussia's rise of power

In 1868 the Glorious Revolution erupts and Isabella II of Spain is deposed. Who is to become the next Spanish monarch? Ferdinand of Saxe-Coburg perhaps? The Spanish ask him but the French fear German domination in Spain. France pushes Prussia to have Ferdinand say no, but Prussia refuses. The Franco-Prussian War starts and Italy, bound by alliance, joins France. The Austro-Prussian War of 1866 had not ended in a decive victory; Italy had not been able to join Prussia to capture Venice, because France had not allowed that. But they had conquered it nevertheless a year after the war, in 1867 in the Austro-Italian War (also called the Conquest of Venice in Italy). After winning the Franco-Prussian War in 1870, and acquiring southern parts of the Rhineland and Alsace-Lorraine. (Note that the Luxembourg Crisis of 1867 does not occur, because William III does not offer it. He will do this four years later in 1871. And the crisis will be bigger because there is no Treaty of London in 1867 so the status of both the Duchy of Limburg and Luxemburg is unclear. But Prussia is too weak to intervene, so France acquires Luxembourg, in reward for Limburg being sold to Prussia.)

Well, after victory in the wars against Prussia and Austria, Italy wants Nice, Savoy and Corsica. Unfortunately: French areas, and France is Italy's ally. Italy asks for getting Nice back as a reward for the war effort. Napoleon III ignores this, until the Italians keep on asking. Eventually he agrees to a French-Italian condominium of the area. Italy is disappointed and threatens war. France does not react because it assumes it is just bluffing. But Italy is serious, and attacks Nice at once. Napoleon III is flabbergasted and cannot manage to get his troops south soon enough. Attacks on Corsica and Savoy follow. The war is called La Guerra della Sorpresa. Needless to say, France is surprised. The French citizens protest against troops marching south to kick out the Italians, weary of the previous war and saying the Italians have the right to the Italian-majority areas. The Treaty is Nice is signed in December 1870, stating that Nice, Corsica and Savoy are and will remain Italian and that Italy's unification has come to and end: Italy must pledge not to seek for inclusion of the Kingdom of Naples (the remnant of the former Kingdom of the Two Sicilies).

Feel free to point out everything that's implausible haha