WI: A different War of Austrian Succession

[Zeller]

Hello there!

So Prussia expected the rebellious Hungarians to deny help from Maria Theresa. OTL, the 30-60.000-strong Hungarian army
that was sent, had a major role in defending the Austrian Empire. "Vitam et sanguinem" was what they cried after her personal appeal, which stands for (Our) "Life and blood" (for the Queen).

First, the Hungarian nobles didn't want to help. If Prussia was a bit more cautious and sent someone to incite revolt, they might have done the complete opposite and rebel against Habsburg oppression.

Just to have an idea, there was a revolution four decades earlier that lasted from 1703 to 1711. The rebels managed to liberate entire Hungary. Austria was fighting in the War of the Spanish Succession.

In this war, Prussia, Bavaria and France are after Austrian possessions.
The total army at Hungary's disposal is larger than the one they sent OTL. Rákóczi's War of Independence saw about 70.000 men in the Hungarian army. In the 1848-19 one, it was around 150.000.

Questions:
1) What are Maria Theresa's options? Will she make consessions to her enemies to crush the rebels or the other way around? What chance does she have?
2) How long would it take for Hungary to become independent? Could they succeed at all?
3) What are the implications for the future?

 

[Germania09]

I have nice suspicion that if this ALT Hungarian rebellion is crushed then all of those loyal Hungarian nobles (sarcasm) won't be nobles for much longer. IMHO the Habsburg monarchy had always been far too lenient on the Magnates so yes if this rebellion is crushed then knowing Maria those involved won't be alive or in power much longer to worry about how much they've failed. Implications for the future? Well without the Hungarian nobles bringing up independence every century then the Empire might do better internally for a bit longer.

 

[Zeller]

IF it is crushed. She is kinda busy fighting a two-front war with 4 rivals, and Hungary is in her...back.

 

[Zeller]

Russia did intervene OTL, although it was limtied to diplomacy and a 30,000-strong army at the Rhine. I'm guessing that they would not do anything much bigger ITTL, at least until they manage to sort out their issues with Sweden.

The Ottoman Empire has just finished a war with Austria and Russia and gained a lot, so they will probably stay out of it as well.

France is even able to show an act of good faith by sending György Rákóczi, younger son of Ferenc II Rákóczi, who led the rebels before (and to whom Louis XIV did send help that time), to Hungary, reigniting the old "kuruc" ideal to mobilize even more men.

The revolution will absolutely not beaten down till 1743. The previous revolt lasted for 8 years, and Austria was in a very similar, maybe even better position.

By the time Great Britain begins military operations, most of Hungary proper is liberated. Only Buda, the capital and its immediate surroundings, the Military Frontier and South Transylvania are under Habsburg control along with Croatia, while Austria manages to protect most of its western possessions against its enemies.

Prussia has doubled its size and population and gained a strong industrial land with Silezia. Now, crushing Austria's hegemony in the HRE could come in handy. Supporting Hungary - while staying out of most of the international conflict - would greatly boost their prestige among the northern, protestant part of the Empire.
All in all, they would immensely profit from this war.

With help from Prussa, France, Bavaria and Saxony, Hungary would defeat almost all Habsburg armies within her and be ready for peace talks - or to strike Vienna.

 

[Janprimus]

I have nice suspicion that if this ALT Hungarian rebellion is crushed then all of those loyal Hungarian nobles (sarcasm) won't be nobles for much longer. IMHO the Habsburg monarchy had always been far too lenient on the Magnates so yes if this rebellion is crushed then knowing Maria those involved won't be alive or in power much longer to worry about how much they've failed. Implications for the future? Well without the Hungarian nobles bringing up independence every century then the Empire might do better internally for a bit longer.

IF the Habsburgs would succeed at crushing the Hungarian, then Hungary would probably treated in a similar manner as Bohemia after the Habsburg victory of the battle of White Mountain.
Just look up the 'Verneuerte Landesordnung' of 1627.

Not too sure about the implications on the general Hungarian populace, but the Hungarian elite would be in worse situation than OTL under such a scenario.

Regarding a general conflict, I don't think the Great Powers would want to wipe Habsburg-Lorraine from the map, but they will have to endure severe territorial losses.
IOTL the Austrian Habsburgs/Habsburg-Lorraine lost Silesia and Parma, Piacenza & Guastella.
They kept the Southern Netherlands, Milan, Tuscany and their core lands: the Austrian Hereditary Lands, the kingdoms of Hungary, Bohemia and Croatia.
ITTL Milan (and Parma) might go to Savoy. The OTL Bourbon duke of Parma might get Tuscany instead, with Francis Stephen being compensated with the Southern Netherlands (the other way around would make the Sea Powers nervous).

Keeping the core intact would be more tricky without the full Hungarian support. OTOH no one wants either Bavaria or Saxony just gain all Austrian territories and replacing them.
IMHO in a worst case scenario for the Habsburgs, Bavaria and Saxony would certainly gain, but they'll still be force in the HRE. In fact I even doubt that France or Prussia would have wanted a complete victory of Bavaria or Saxony over the Austrian Habsburgs. With the right concessions, like Silesia, Milan, Tuscany etc., they might even be willing to leave the conflict. IMHO France and Prussia wanted to redistribute the power in the HRE and probably wouldn't want another power to just replace Austria.

 

[Zeller]

Prussia has doubled its size and population and gained a strong industrial land with Silezia. Now, crushing Austria's hegemony in the HRE could come in handy. Supporting Hungary - while staying out of most of the international conflict - would greatly boost their prestige among the northern, protestant part of the Empire, especially if Hungary manages to gain independece, as it was protestant at the time.
All in all, they would immensely profit from this war.

 

[Janprimus]

Prussia has doubled its size and population and gained a strong industrial land with Silezia. Now, crushing Austria's hegemony in the HRE could come in handy. Supporting Hungary - while staying out of most of the international conflict - would greatly boost their prestige among the northern, protestant part of the Empire, especially if Hungary manages to gain independece, as it was protestant at the time.
All in all, they would immensely profit from this war.

Taking Austria down a notch is one thing, but it would not be in the interest of Prussia or France to replace the Austria hegemony with a Bavarian or a Saxon one.

Without the OTL Hungarian contribution Austria would be in a harder position and will have to let more territories go to reward any of their allies, apart from any gains, which ITTL Bavaria and/or Saxony will make.

Milan to Sardinia-Savoy, recognize the Silesia as Prussia, Tuscany to a Bourbon prince (to appease France and Spain), Francis Stephen could be compensated with the Southern Netherlands etc.

If Austria does well enough on its' own, then they could end up having a real shot against Bavaria or Saxony.

As for Hungary, perhaps the Hungarian nobles declare their support for the Saxon or Bavarian candidate? Which claim came from the daughters of HRE Joseph , the elder brother of HRE Charles VI (who succeeded Joseph), the father of Maria Theresia.

 

[Zeller]

Yes, Bavaria-France-Saxony may soon realize that the Hungarian rebellion is potentially key to their success, so they may support it. France is even able to show an act of good faith by sending György Rákóczi, younger son of Ferenc II Rákóczi, who led the rebels before (and to whom Louis XIV did send help that time), to Hungary, reigniting the old "kuruc" ideal to mobilize even more men.

He was raised in the Viennese court to be a very lew, frivoulous person, just like his brother who died only a couple of years ago and he didn't show any leadership qualities and seemed to enjoy feasts, drinking and the company of women much more than he could handle anything a leader should be able to. Some Hungarian nobles would like the idea of having such a man as king, so that thay can have influence over him.

The same goes for France, as he is residing there and even the King of France would hold sway over him.