WI: Đinđić Dodges The Bullet?

[Revolutionary Avocado]

What it says. What happens if Zoran Đinđić, the liberal reformist Prime Minister of Serbia, is not assassinated in 2003? Say his bodyguard gets in the way, and the shot that killed him OTL kills the bodyguard but only wounds him. Đinđić then uses the political capital created by this to launch a serious crackdown on the Serbian Mafia and ultranationalists who tried to kill him so many times, arresting and imprisoning many of them.

What happens to Serbia? How does the situation with Kosovo change with a more moderate and charismatic leader? Does Serbia become a member state of the EU?

 

[Pellegrino]

What it says. What happens if Zoran Đinđić, the liberal reformist Prime Minister of Serbia, is not assassinated in 2003? Say his bodyguard gets in the way, and the shot that killed him OTL kills the bodyguard but only wounds him. Đinđić then uses the political capital created by this to launch a serious crackdown on the Serbian Mafia and ultranationalists who tried to kill him so many times, arresting and imprisoning many of them.

What happens to Serbia? How does the situation with Kosovo change with a more moderate and charismatic leader? Does Serbia become a member state of the EU?

Serbia cleans house in regards to the mafia, and yes, I could see a crackdown on the ultranationalist. Look for Mladic and Karadic to be turned over to the UN tribunal by the end of the year. But nothing really changes with the EU or Kosovo. EU membership still was tied to recognition of Kosovar independence, which Đinđić would never agree too. Although relations with Kosovo would remain cool as opposed to bad, that is just too big of a stumbling block for any major change in the status quo. I see the EU pushing hard to get Đinđić to switch his position, but it really would be political suicide for a Serb politician to recognize Kosovo, and in 2003 Serbia was still hoping that maybe, just maybe, getting rid of Milosevic might be enough to get EU membership. Đinđić would probably get enough western aid to pospone the EU question untill later, which would also kill the one major motivation he would have to change the status quo in regards to Kosovo

 

[Oracle of Sobek 𓆋]

With that PoD, might the Kosovar declaration of independence be butterflied altogether? Could a reconciliation program of some sort (think "truth and reconciliation") instituted by Đinđić keep Kosovo as an autonomous entity within Serbia à la Vojvodina? Or is the damage simply too much for the Kosovars to push for anything other than independence?

 

[Pellegrino]

With that PoD, might the Kosovar declaration of independence be butterflied altogether? Could a reconciliation program of some sort (think "truth and reconciliation") instituted by Đinđić keep Kosovo as an autonomous entity within Serbia à la Vojvodina? Or is the damage simply too much for the Kosovars to push for anything other than independence?

I don't think there is any way the Kosavar Albanians would agree to anything short of independence in 2003. I don't think independence would be butterflied away, maybe delayed a few years (maybe). By 2003 the Kosavars were not going to accept any sort of federation with Serbia unless (and this is highly, highly unlikely IMO) there was some agreement to a referendum on independence in the near future (like what we saw in South Sudan). Can't see Đinđić agreeing to that, but let's say somehow there is a "new Yugoslavia" formed, where Kosovo is a partner with Serbia in a very, very loose federation. They agree that they will not declare independence from this federation untill, lets say 2013 9or in ten years) upon which they will be allowed to hold a referendum. Đinđić agrees that the Serbs will respect the results of the referendum regardless of the result. Maybe then there would be a Federation of Serbia and Kosovo. This could work since it give both sides something they can use:

1. Kosovo would get Serbian recognition in 10 years.
2. Đinđić could get EU membership and Đinđić won't have to deal with the fallout for at least ten years and by then he might be out of office (a common politicial way to deal with a sticky problem).

But I still doubt it would work. Problem with this scenario is (1) for Serbs, it will seem like Đinđić sold out the country. Even with a 10 year delay, Serbs will see it as selling Kosovo for EU memebership. And when Serbia does get admitted to the EU they would discover the same thing the Slovaks and Romanians and Bulgarians discovered: EU membership is not a magic wand that will fix all their problems. This will create a lot of tension and could lead to a right wing revival in the next election on a platform of rejecting the EU deal over Kosovo. Which leads to the big problem for the Kosovars: they need to trust that nothing will happen in ten years to cause the parties to renig on the terms of the agreement. They would need to trust that the Serbs would honor the deal in ten years (which will be hard to promise since the opposition Radical party will never agree to honor that provision, and probably would make that the platform of their campaign when they run) and they would need to feel certain that NATO and the EU won't just keep pushing the deadline back (they would fear a scenario where the EU allows the Serbs to push the referendum back to 2015. Then to 2018. Then to...). As a result I just don't see this scenario happening either, although I suppose it is possible that it could...

 

[Revolutionary Avocado]

<snip>

Is it possible that Đinđić instead simply annexes the north of Kosovo and lets the rest go? He might have the political capital after the assassination, especially if the radical right is completely discredited, to negotiate a partition of Kosovo, and the European support to do so with his reputation as a moderate.

 

[Angel Heart]

What it says. What happens if Zoran Đinđić, the liberal reformist Prime Minister of Serbia, is not assassinated in 2003? Say his bodyguard gets in the way, and the shot that killed him OTL kills the bodyguard but only wounds him. Đinđić then uses the political capital created by this to launch a serious crackdown on the Serbian Mafia and ultranationalists who tried to kill him so many times, arresting and imprisoning many of them.

He'd be killed another time. The mafia creates you, the mafia destroys you.

What happens to Serbia? How does the situation with Kosovo change with a more moderate and charismatic leader?

Maybe if he stays alive Serbia's relationship with Germany might be better.

Kosovo goes as OTL. What do you think was the entire point of 1999?

Does Serbia become a member state of the EU?

Is it possible that Đinđić instead simply annexes the north of Kosovo and lets the rest go? He might have the political capital after the assassination, especially if the radical right is completely discredited, to negotiate a partition of Kosovo, and the European support to do so with his reputation as a moderate.

No! Touching the AVNOJ borders drawn by Tito is heresy!

 

[Pellegrino]

Is it possible that Đinđić instead simply annexes the north of Kosovo and lets the rest go? He might have the political capital after the assassination, especially if the radical right is completely discredited, to negotiate a partition of Kosovo, and the European support to do so with his reputation as a moderate.

That would be the worst case scenario for Dindic IMO. First of all, all the goodwill he earned with the west would disappear immidiatly. It could even blow up and turn into a Iraq-Kuwait thing in the western media. There is a very, very firm world view in place that international borders are no longer open to rewrites.

Second, it probably wouldn't placate Serb nationalist, and could get there blood boiling to the point that they could become too much to control. The problem is that an annexation of northern Kosovo still leaves Kosovo Polje and most of the Serb historic places inside of Kosovo in Albanian hands. For them, Mitrovica might just be seen as a "good start", especially if a land grab leads to massive sanctions (well, we are already screwed, lets just make it worth our while).

I just don't see him doing that under any circumstances.