Why is an Axis Victory ASB?

[marathag]

Britain not going bomb Baku they're trying to put a wedge between the USSR and Germany / get the USSR on their side, that does the opposite. (Yes I know plans were drawn up but the US has plans drawn up for invading Canada as well, lost of plans get drawn up for lost of things that will never happen

Plans on Baku were in the works with both France and UK before interrupted by Norway and France.
Without an attack thru the low countries, Those lazy plans would have resulted in a real raid in June or July

 

[HexWargamer]

So how to give Hitler a chance of achieving his goal ...
IF he declares war on USA, he looses. So don't. BUT the USA supports Brits. anyway ... so don't get into a war with the British..
SO - why did the Brits. declare war ? Well, it's over Poland .. but that doesn't seem to make sense (Britain has no way of sending forces to assist the Poles) .. so why ?
Well it's after Hitler proved he couldn't be trusted by annexing the rest of Czechoksovakia.
RIGHT - here's the POD that lets Hitler avoid a war with the Brits. ...
Instead of making a fuss about the Sudatenland, he starts with Danzig and the Polish Corridor. Instead of Chamberlain pressuring the Czechs to hand over the Sudatenland, he pushes the Poles into handing over Danzig etc.
After that it's Nazi-Soviet Pact time and the secret clause ...
NOW all Hitler has to do is convince Stalin to invade (or prepare to invade) eastern Poland whilst he uses political pressure to get the Poles to 'accept the protection of the Reich' ...
With a bit of "hand-wavium", Panzers enter Warsaw on 15 March, 1939 to 'rescure' the Poles from the Comunists ..... (in fact, just as Chamberlain pressured the Czechs, we can have him putting pressure on the Poles instead - last miniute intervention by Mussillini and a meeting in Munich, me thinks..)
Peace in our time and all that ... but as Hitler arrives in Warsaw, Stalins forces are going to be crossing from the east ... no-one knows of the deal so the Poles will resist and that it's inevitable that Hitler will get his war with Stalin ... and a good chance the Panzers will be in Moscow by the winter of 1940 ...

 

[nbcman]

So how to give Hitler a chance of achieving his goal ...
IF he declares war on USA, he looses. So don't. BUT the USA supports Brits. anyway ... so don't get into a war with the British..
SO - why did the Brits. declare war ? Well, it's over Poland .. but that doesn't seem to make sense (Britain has no way of sending forces to assist the Poles) .. so why ?
Well it's after Hitler proved he couldn't be trusted by annexing the rest of Czechoksovakia.
RIGHT - here's the POD that lets Hitler avoid a war with the Brits. ...
Instead of making a fuss about the Sudatenland, he starts with Danzig and the Polish Corridor. Instead of Chamberlain pressuring the Czechs to hand over the Sudatenland, he pushes the Poles into handing over Danzig etc.
After that it's Nazi-Soviet Pact time and the secret clause ...
NOW all Hitler has to do is convince Stalin to invade (or prepare to invade) eastern Poland whilst he uses political pressure to get the Poles to 'accept the protection of the Reich' ...
With a bit of "hand-wavium", Panzers enter Warsaw on 15 March, 1939 to 'rescure' the Poles from the Comunists ..... (in fact, just as Chamberlain pressured the Czechs, we can have him putting pressure on the Poles instead - last miniute intervention by Mussillini and a meeting in Munich, me thinks..)
After that it's inevitable that war will start with Stalin ... and a good chance the Panzers will be in Moscow by the winter of 1940 ...

1. The Soviets only became interested in a deal with the Nazis after the disaster of Munich. No sellout of the Czechs, no fall of Litvinov, no Molotov-Ribbentrop pact.
2. The Soviets weren’t going to invade anyone in the spring of 1939 when they were having regular border clashes with Japan. There was a reason why the Soviets didn’t invade Poland until Sept 17th-the day after the ceasefire went into effect between Japan and the Soviets.

 

[Fulton 44]

Which:

A. Turns it from a World War into a more limited thing.
B. Assumes that the USA will cheerfully sit this one out, despite all the evidence that its neutrality was increasingly less neutral as time went on.
C. Rather ignores the fact that the USSR was primary target number 1 - that whole Lebensraum thing.
D. Rather assumes that Germany would win a war just limited to the UK, despite the well-explored difficulties of forcing defeat on Britain if Britain intends to continue fighting.
E. Rather assumes that Germany's economy won't implode once the quick victories and looting come to an end.
F. Good luck with the diplomacy necessary to convince people to trust Germany following all the broken agreements beforehand.
G. Presupposes that the USSR is going to sit there and do nothing in return.

A. Still a world war - all over the place.
B. A key presumption but that's what diplomacy is for.
C. That's World War 3.
D. With the help of Japan it is possible but not easy.
More to come.

 

[Fulton 44]

A. Still a world war - all over the place.
B. A key presumption but that's what diplomacy is for.
C. That's World War 3.
D. With the help of Japan it is possible but not easy.
More to come.

E. There will be continued looting from colonial empires.
F. No invasion of the USSR (keeping that promise). Probably no invasion of the Balkans.
G. This is a big issue but the evidence is that Stalin had no appetite for doing this at least until 43 or 44 and by then the British Empire is carved up.
Again, admittedly, this whole approach requires many many assumptions. But what I am suggesting is that it is the ONLY path to Axis victory not necessarily a very plausible one.

 

[Bob in Pittsburgh]

Had Hitler avoided war with the US he might have been able to come to some resolution with Stalin,

 

[David Flin]

A. Still a world war - all over the place.
B. A key presumption but that's what diplomacy is for.
C. That's World War 3.
D. With the help of Japan it is possible but not easy.

A. No, it's a war between Britain and Germany/Italy. A World War involves a significant number of countries being involved, not just a widespread war.
B. German diplomacy. WW2. Right.
C. Do you really think USSR would sit it out while Germany was getting deeper and deeper involved elsewhere?
D. Why the Hell would Japan help out Germany in fighting in northwest Europe? I know Japan had some ambitious plans that didn't entirely meet up with reality, but sending a fleet to help Germany defeat Britain seems a little of a high-risk/low-benefit exercise for Japan. Sure, Germany would like it, but given Japan's interests, that's a touch unlikely.

In short, the changes necessary to achieve any of your suggestions transform the situation so much that it's not possible to have a meaningful discussion on them as they bear no resemblance to the situation as we know it. If there's a proposal that Japan will get involved in NW Europe, then all bets are off as one can invent anything one likes.

"We need oil and resources to continue our war with China. I know, lets sail our fleet to the other side of the world, and help our ally, who has oil and resource shortages of his own, in order to help him defeat another country in a place where there is no oil, leaving our own area of interests unguarded while our fleet is away." I mean, attacking the USA Pacific Fleet to stop it interfering in the SE Asia land grab was unwise enough, but at least one can follow the reasoning involved. This just comes down to: "Japan does whatever Germany wants it to do."

 

[jamesownz]

If Germany can kick the Soviets out of the war in 41 or even Spring 42 that may be enough to get the Wallies to just forget about it.

But I'd say that their only hope.

 

[Reggieperrin]

And so, once again, a discussion of axis victory in WW2 devolves into endless wrangling about long convoluted POD chains that could only be achieved if historical figures radically departed from their OTL decisions.
The sort of departures that could be achieved only by something like Alien Space Bats exercising mind control over them.
Amazing.

 

[Finbarr the Fair]

As a note, the armies of Hitler's Germany (even when outnumbered and 'outgunned') were more than capable of kicking the stuffing out of enemy armies when their opponents were badly organised and/or incompetently led. See for example Rommel's absolutely crushing victory at Gazala.
(Imperial Japan was also more than happy to hand out catastrophic beatings to the hapless British and anyone foolish enough to have troops under a British commander, until they ran into the madman Orde Wingate and then Bill Slim's reconstituted forces at Imphal and Kohima.)

Yes, the Germans and Japanese could win tactical victories. Until late 1944 in the former case, probably not from mid-1943 in the latter (Burma an exception).

What they couldn't do was win a Total War. The only hope either had was to win a limited war where they could negotiate a peace deal that let them keep most of their gains.

The Allies didn't choose to deal with them on that basis, each for their own reasons. And the Axis could not force them to do so.

Because they lacked the industrial, financial and other resources needed to conquer their opponents. Who each deep down knew this, believed the conflict was an existential war they had to win to survive and so had to pursue total victory through Unconditional Surrender.

 

[user23123]

They can't take on US because of industrial capacity,they can't take on UK they don't have the navy and the airforce could be better.

They could take on the soviets since that will involve using they army and the airforce.

The problem is they don't have a direct with them,one solution could be to convince Poland to join in.

Another one is deal with what came before Poland which should increase the chances of neutal UK and France,in the case of German-Polish war.
Or the same as otl for what came before Poland,and just have the war with Poland through a proxy like Lithuania for example since they had some differences regarding Vilnius and have Germany join in sometime during the Polsih Lithuania war.

Another option could be to try and expand the little entente by having Austria and Hungary join in, while stering up antisoviet sentiments among them, and the provoke a war between the USSR and the medium Entente.This war will have the advantage that will probably get the Italians involved so no stupid invasions for them else where like Greece for example,and since the allies probabil still have a degree of interest will get them in too.this scenario would give you an indendent Ukraine and Belarus,and an USSR that is still strong enough so they will require protection which Germany will provide in exchange for food and stuff.

Or combine the two,and have a proxy war with Poland which will result in an landlocked Poland and indendent West Belarus and Ukraine,which will be encouraged to join the Medium entente and provoke a war with ussr for est Belarus and East Ukraine.

And since now you have and Mitteleuropean coalition (empire) and plan Z completed start a war in the West just to loose every thing when the Americans will join in,not before some sunshine gets dropped

 

[Asp]

It isn't. It's just that there seems to be a tendency for threads to go in the direction of 'Axis magics extra tanks up out of coal and/or build stuff whilst their opponents blinded by Sith magic space knights fail to notice and react' rather than 'better Axis diplomacy'.

This part deserves more expansion because it's a common error. There's a lot of things that the Axis could have done to prepare that would have resulted in a better showing during WWII, but a lot of TL authors have the Allies do nothing in response. That just isn't plausible. It is perfectly possible that Hitler could have told Raeder they were going to war sooner than the 1960s and that he could have scrapped Plan Z and built a shitload of commerce raiders and u-boats instead. It isn't plausible that the Royal Navy responds with the exact plan as IOTL and builds a bunch of King George V-class battleships instead of deleting some and cranking out a bunch of corvettes and light cruisers instead. It's possible that if Walther Wever hadn't died in a plane crash, the Luftwaffe could have had competent management/R&D, and that he could have seen the potential of jet aircraft and dedicated the whole Junkers engine research division to jet engine research in 1939 while canceling the Junkers Jumo and producing only Daimler-Benz engines for piston engine fighters. But when (not if) Britain hears that Junkers is now a jet engine firm, they're going to respond by kicking a bunch of money to Frank Whittle and giving Rolls Royce the job of developing the engine way earlier than IOTL.

You can do a lot of these things, but the Allies weren't total idiots. They were in competition with the Reich and will take actions to offset anything they do, and they have vastly more resources and talented people to do so. Having them just eat lotuses for years like a lot of these Axis-wanks do is a recipe for an ASB TL.

 

[TDM]

Plans on Baku were in the works with both France and UK before interrupted by Norway and France.
Without an attack thru the low countries, Those lazy plans would have resulted in a real raid in June or July

and what argument can you provide to support that claim? Just the mere existence of such plans?

So again why? They're trying to get the USSR on their side or at last away from teh Axis, not drive it further towards Germany. That leaves aside the basic practical issues of being at war with Germany and then deciding to attack Russia!

Plus as you say Germany invades France and Norway so unless that not going to happen...

 

[TDM]

the trade with Japan or Japanese-controlled territories never equaled the trade with China or in fact amounted to much at all, think that was understood at the time, they wouldn't need hindsight? recall they attempted to deal with Reorganized National Government of ROC (Wang Jingwei regime) later.

also Japan was aloof from Germany for almost all the 1930's? it was not like they were gaining a certain ally? there is the so-called Phantom Alliance of Germany, Poland, and Japan, but it proved elusive, while USSR and China were waiting?

I guess I can't really see how significant trade between Germany and China can take place especially in war time (and that's most of the 30's for China). I agree Japan wasn't best buds with Germany at this point, but Germany getting more involved in the Sino-Japanese war is not what Germany wants long term and will mess up the Axis. (and I think that will be price for any significant economic deal with China, because that will the the only thing China wants)

Actually it could make an interesting ALT POD if there's enough there to persuade Germany to go for it in the first place.

the ability to reach China, and a resumption of their prior clandestine military cooperation could prompt an earlier trade deal with USSR? sure the German military would support it as the Nazi regime begins territorial expansion(s)?

Well see above I'm not sure they have the ability to reach China, and I'm not sure how it prompt's a deal with the Soviets, Stalin was hoping he could buy a delay in Germany attacking because Germany was reliant on soviet resources. Unless you thinking it would prompt teh soviets to offer a better deal to replace China's?

(just IMO) the oil situation as much as anything else prompted the invasion East and ended any cooperation with the USSR. that could have been lessened if their synthetic oil program had been more orderly, taking precedence over the Westwall and fleet perhaps to some degree? and a decision made not to ally with Romania but to divide it as they did with Poland? (they only got half the Romanian oil production historically)

Hitler's going to invade the USSR because he's all about defeating Judeo-Bolshevism, undoing the TOV and gaining lebensraum. I agree the oilfields and other resources were also seen as a worthwhile prize, but even if they're downgraded in value due to other options, Germany is still going east.

 

[TDM]

As a note, the armies of Hitler's Germany (even when outnumbered and 'outgunned') were more than capable of kicking the stuffing out of enemy armies when their opponents were badly organised and/or incompetently led. See for example Rommel's absolutely crushing victory at Gazala.
(Imperial Japan was also more than happy to hand out catastrophic beatings to the hapless British and anyone foolish enough to have troops under a British commander, until they ran into the madman Orde Wingate and then Bill Slim's reconstituted forces at Imphal and Kohima.)

This is true but there's nothing special about either Germany or Japan in that (although Japan wasn't just limited to handing out beatings to Britain in early 1942, even if Singapore* was particularly bad one!)

But the problem for a POD based on this is it assumes Germany will always be fighting such opponents and that Germany itself will never be badly organised or incompetently led. This is somewhat unrealistic to say the least.

I.e. Rommel's victory at Gazala is a good one, but what happened long term? And what where Rommel's long-term issues there especially in terms of those larger scale axis vs. allies differences?

*if there's any silver lining to the British and US experiences in early 1942 in the east at all, it's that you tend to only dramatically underestimate your enemy once

 

[Garrison]

As a note, the armies of Hitler's Germany (even when outnumbered and 'outgunned') were more than capable of kicking the stuffing out of enemy armies when their opponents were badly organised and/or incompetently led. See for example Rommel's absolutely crushing victory at Gazala.
(Imperial Japan was also more than happy to hand out catastrophic beatings to the hapless British and anyone foolish enough to have troops under a British commander, until they ran into the madman Orde Wingate and then Bill Slim's reconstituted forces at Imphal and Kohima.)

Gazala was a great tactical victory for Rommel, but strategically it was a dead end because once again he had ignored the operational and strategic considerations and overextended his forces. His instinct to charge ahead worked in France where space was limited and supply lines were reasonable but in the desert time and again he overreached and won victories that simply consumed resources without leading anywhere. Worse after Gazala the British revamped their command structure and while the arrival of Montgomery gets the most attention I suspect it was putting the Desert Air Force on a proper footing that was more important. They became the scourge of Rommel's armies in the desert while RAF units operating in the Med helped to decimate Axis supply lines. There were only a limited number of large cargo ships available to the Axis in the Med and once they were gone they were gone. Axis supplies were being run on ever smaller ships, creating huge inefficiencies in the loading and unloading process, assuming the ships made it to port.

 

[DougM]

It is possible to have Germany fight just the USSR (not likely but it could have happened) but that is hardly WW2. So even if they win it they are not winning WW2. This is back to my problem with so many of these kinds of topics in that buy the time tou change enough stuff for (in the case) Germany to win you no longer have anything close to the WW2 that we know as WW2.

As for The USSR falling in a more traditional WW2 and the Wallies giving up. That only happens if the US stays home. So you have to Change FDR AND stop Japan from attacking at PH. Once PH happens the US IS ending this war once and for all and Germany and Japan both will pay the price because the Americans are tired of this constant war crap. It is more a holy crusade then a war, You get a lot of “Pop went over and fought this and it ended in a peace treaty that was broken so we are going to finish what our Dads started or die trying” kind of thing with Hermany on top of the whole dishonorable dirty low down sneak attack from PH vibe going and the US will pay the cost to end this all by themselves if the had to but add in GB and the rest and Germany and Japan are still doomed.

 

[Cymraeg]

Gazala was a great tactical victory for Rommel, but strategically it was a dead end because once again he had ignored the operational and strategic considerations and overextended his forces. His instinct to charge ahead worked in France where space was limited and supply lines were reasonable but in the desert time and again he overreached and won victories that simply consumed resources without leading anywhere. Worse after Gazala the British revamped their command structure and while the arrival of Montgomery gets the most attention I suspect it was putting the Desert Air Force on a proper footing that was more important. They became the scourge of Rommel's armies in the desert while RAF units operating in the Med helped to decimate Axis supply lines. There were only a limited number of large cargo ships available to the Axis in the Med and once they were gone they were gone. Axis supplies were being run on ever smaller ships, creating huge inefficiencies in the loading and unloading process, assuming the ships made it to port.

Plus by August 1942 two major security leaks have been plugged in Egypt - Bonner Fellers has been sent home from the US Embassy in disgrace and Seebohm and his men have been killed or captured along with all their records - making it clear that British R/T procedures were shockingly lax and had led to the Germans reading the British mail.

 

[Hammerbolt]

As for The USSR falling in a more traditional WW2 and the Wallies giving up. That only happens if the US stays home. So you have to Change FDR AND stop Japan from attacking at PH. Once PH happens the US IS ending this war once and for all and Germany and Japan both will pay the price because the Americans are tired of this constant war crap. It is more a holy crusade then a war, You get a lot of “Pop went over and fought this and it ended in a peace treaty that was broken so we are going to finish what our Dads started or die trying” kind of thing with Hermany on top of the whole dishonorable dirty low down sneak attack from PH vibe going and the US will pay the cost to end this all by themselves if the had to but add in GB and the rest and Germany and Japan are still doomed.

Much would depend on the UK still being in the fight, and the only way to have Germany only fighting the USSR is if the UK is ok. At which point there isn't much the US can do besides use the Alaska-Siberia route to support the USSR; without the massive airbase & port called UK, there's no way the US can really hurt Germany directly. At least not untill it lods up B-36s with nukes, but at would also depend on Germany's air defence to be asleep...

 

[marathag]

and what argument can you provide to support that claim? Just the mere existence of such plans?

Operation Pike - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Serious preparation by the British began after the end of the Winter War in March 1940. By April, plans to attack oil production centres in the Caucasian towns of Baku, Batum and Grozny were complete. Bombers were to be flown from bases in Iran, Turkey and Syria in "Western Air Plan 106", which was codenamed "Operation Pike".[5] The French proposed accelerating the planning, but the British were more cautious for fear of a possible German-Soviet alliance if the allies attack the Soviets.[6]
...
Analysis of the photography by the PDU revealed that the oil infrastructure in Baku and Batum were particularly vulnerable to air attack, as both could be approached from the sea and so the more difficult target of Grozny would be bombed first to exploit the element of surprise. Oil fields were to be attacked with incendiary bombs, and tests conducted at the Royal Arsenal at Woolwich revealed that light oil storage tanks at the oil processing plants could be detonated with high explosives.

As of 1 April, four squadrons comprising 48 Bristol Blenheim Mk IV bombers were transferred to the Middle East Command and were supplemented with a number of single-engined Wellesley bombers for night missions. A French force of 65 Martin Maryland bombers and a supplementary force of 24 Farman F.222 heavy bombers were allocated for night operations during the campaign. The French were preparing new air fields in Syria that were expected to be ready by 15 May. The campaign was expected to last three months and over 1,000 short tons (910 t) of bombs were allocated to the operation: 404 × 500 lb (230 kg) semi-armour-piercing bombs, 554 × 500 lb (230 kg) and 5,188 × 250 lb (110 kg) general-purpose bombs and 69,192 × 4 lb (1.8 kg) incendiary bombs.[12]