So, I recently watched The Godfather Part II, and that has got me thinking: why didn't the US intervene during the Cuban Revolution? I mean, there was a lot of American investment in Cuba and the island was just 90 miles away from the US. It would be logic for the US to intervene against the Marxist rebels, after all, they wouldn't want what was basically their colony to become a pro-Soviet state. Also, what would Cuba look like if the US had intervened?
So, can anyone answer me this? Thanks in advance.
Would it have made any difference if Ike decided to skip golf and actually meet with Fidel (instead, Fidel had a rather uneasy meeting with Nixon)? Did Nixon really think Castro was a communist??
If the US overthrew Castro early on, Cuba would probably be between the level of Portugal or Spain ($20-30k per capita) and the lower level of the G7 like Italy or UK ($35-40k per capita). Cuba had a richer economy than Spain and Portugal in the 1950s. Combined with massive US investment, Cuba would develop quite well. Spain and Portugal would be laggards until they joined the EU (then the EEC) in 1986, after which they started receiving large EU subsidies to modernize their economies. So depending on how one envisions the specifics, Cuba is more or less at their level although I'd expect Cuba to have done substantially better - the per capita income might be 10-50% more.
It would be a stable democracy, and probably the leading country in Latin America in terms of development. The US would likely have ceded Guantanamo Bay back to Cuba decades ago.
Like everyone else has said, basically Batista's supporters consisted of himself and his barber. Everyone wanted to see him go, it was just that Castro caught the US by surprise when he threw his lot in with the Soviets.
A fun POD/AHC/TL/whatever would be having a Cuban Revolution that doesn't go Red (I dunno, Che falls off his motorcycle and dies or something).
If the US overthrew Castro early on, Cuba would probably be between the level of Portugal or Spain ($20-30k per capita) and the lower level of the G7 like Italy or UK ($35-40k per capita). Cuba had a richer economy than Spain and Portugal in the 1950s. Combined with massive US investment, Cuba would develop quite well. Spain and Portugal would be laggards until they joined the EU (then the EEC) in 1986, after which they started receiving large EU subsidies to modernize their economies. So depending on how one envisions the specifics, Cuba is more or less at their level although I'd expect Cuba to have done substantially better - the per capita income might be 10-50% more.
It would be a stable democracy, and probably the leading country in Latin America in terms of development. The US would likely have ceded Guantanamo Bay back to Cuba decades ago.
I was always under the impression that it is generally Argentina/Uruguay/Chile (particularly the latter two) that have been consistently viewed as the Latin American nations most likely to have Western level development, not least because they are basically the Western Hemisphere versions of Spain.
Not doubting what you say, as you seem to know a lot about this, but my own view was that Central America/The Caribbean was the laggard area of Latin America. Or is this just a perception brought about by the last few decades of history in that region?
Oh he's definitely right about Cuba's early 20th century trajectory. I believe it was consistently behind Argentina and ahead of everyone else in development. I disagree with him on Cuba's ability to sustain that, given its very specialized agrarian-focused economy, and I also disagree that there's clear evidence that Castro meant to go full-on Soviet puppet from the get-go. That seems more like a political position than fact. But yes, Cuba was doing very well before the revolutin; well, before Batista, anyway.
I was always under the impression that it is generally Argentina/Uruguay/Chile (particularly the latter two) that have been consistently viewed as the Latin American nations most likely to have Western level development, not least because they are basically the Western Hemisphere versions of Spain.
I disagree with him on Cuba's ability to sustain that, given its very specialized agrarian-focused economy
Or it would have ended up like that other succes story: Haiti.
Having a government that is friendly to US interests in general does not equal succesfull economic development. Somertimes it will, sometimes it wont.
Cuba was not a actually a very specialized agrarian-focused economy by 1958. It was semi-industrial country well placed to moved up in the value added chain.
Cuba was still a developing nation, but by 1959 it was rapidly industrializing and had begun to diversify its economy by a lot. Agriculture was still important, but sugar represented only 27% of agricultural income, much less GDP. Cattle, mining, tourism, and manufacturing were all reducing dependency on agriculture.
Cuba ranked fifth in Latin American manufacturing with industrial wages being the highest in Latin America and 9th highest in the world. Cuba possessed world class infrastructure in its roads, railways, and ports.
The following statistics indicate the rate of production before Castro. It is the % increase between 1951 and 1958:
Agricultural Production
raw sugar .......... 11
plantains ........... 30
rice ................ 120
leaf tobacco ...... 50
potatoes .......... 28
flour ............... 114
Industrial Production--non-Sugar
cement .............. 55.5
fertilizer ............. 48.8
cotton ............... 33.6
sulfuric acid ........ 32.3
artificial silk ........ 18.1
rubber goods ...... 65.5
construction ..... 120.8
gas and electric . 157.5
manufactures .... 118.7
This is very significant growth in key industrial commodities. Several key sectors more than doubled output. According to the Banco Nacional, investment in Cuban industrial installations exceeded $600 million from 1952 to 1956. Of this amount, $324 million was invested in 154 new plants and $288 million in the expansion of existing plants. The $600 million increase in manufacturing compares well against the accumulated industrial capital stock in the sugar sector of $1,159 million.
Of the fixed capital goods purchased abroad in 1957-58, 63 percent was invested in industry, 10 percent in diversified agriculture, 13 percent in motorized transport, and an equal share represented construction equipment. This shows that Cuba was investing in its manufacturing sector, and that agriculture was becoming less important.
The US made direct investments of $403 million in 1946-59. Petroleum refining accounted for $129 million, manufacturing for $75 million, public services for $60 million, and commerce for $32 million. New investments in diversified agriculture, mining, and hotels account for the remaining $107 million. We see the most money being invested outside agriculture.
Thus we see that by 1959, Cuba was a semi-industrial nation whose future was increasingly industrialized. Because of limitations of Cuba’s island resources, Cuba was never going to be a large heavy industry country. However, it was well placed to meet its own industrial needs in oil refining and food processing, while being well placed for light manufacturing and probably value added industries in the future.
Furthermore, despite this investment, more of the Cuban economy was being owned by Cubans themselves. The U.S. share of Cuban sugar production declined from 62 percent in 1935 to 37 percent in 1958 while those of other foreign investors fell from 25 to almost nothing. Cuban small farmers grew only nine percent of Cuba’s cane in 1932, but by 1958 their share was well over 50 percent. Cubans controlled three-fourths of the sugar mills which produced 62 percent of the island’s sugar. Cubans had taken over several industries from the Americans including sugar, banking and insurance, and air transportation. Basically, as foreigners built new industries in Cuba, the Cubans were taking over the old ones, and we'd likely see this repeated in the future.
All of this promising start was destroyed by Castro who essentially turned the entire nation into a monocrop sugar plantation on behalf of the Soviet bloc.
And when I moved in with my fiancee the number of cats in my household increased by 200%. Take *that*, Cuba's gas & electric industry!
Sorry, it's not fair, but I couldn't resist. Your stats are impressive, but the info is circumstantial without knowing how this actually affected Cuba. Normally I wouldn't think to ask someone to provide more info, as this is just a message board, but you seem to have numbers at your fingertips. If so, do you have anything on the workforce makeup of Cuba? Hard numbers on agricultural labor vs other sectors in addition to change over time?
Please don't take this as me trying to deflect your arguments, I'm actually just asking for more. But again, if you don't have it, you've already put in more effort than most people would for a message board post (you don't work for Cuban Twitter, by any chance?)
There's also matters of corruption under Batista: how much of this investment had its intended effect? How did quality of life/freedom measures change from 1950-1958 or so? For a POD with a truly prosperous Cuba, I think you have to void Batista's coup.
And anyway, I completely agree that Castro screwed over the economy in a truly spectacular fashion. I still disagree that Castro went into the revolution- or took power- as a communist, or that he always intended to climb in bed with the Soviets. I'm not a fan of the guy, but I've not seen the evidence that puts his Soviet ties any earlier than post-charm offensive.