Let's just say, if for what ever reason, Bob Dole doesn't run for the Republican nomination in 1996. Who would get the nomination? I know Pat Buchanan, Steve Forbs, Phil Graham, and Richard Lugar ran against Dole in OTL (I don't know who else ran for the nomination that year), would either one of them get it or would someone else jump in the race and win it? How much better or worse would they do against Clinton in the general and does Ross Perot get more or less support than OTL?
Who would win the Republican nomination in 1996 if Dole doesn't Run?
- Thread starter dw93
- Start date
Quayle was permanently branded as damaged goods in the 1992 election; when he ran in 2000, he never polled above the single digits despite universal name recognition.
Without Dole as the obvious "establishment" candidate, the field would likely have resembled OTL's 2016 Republican primary (or 1988's Democratic primary) with lots of choices.
Newt Gingrich was named Time's "Man of The Year" in 1995 and was probably the most visible face of the Republican Party. At 53 with limitless ambition, he may or may not choose to challenge an incumbent president, but if he does, I think he could arise out of a multi-way field.
This is 1996, so the Republican Party is still going to be concerned about alienating its moderates with an arch-conservative bomb-thrower at the top of the ticket. Northeastern liberal governors Christie Todd Whitman (NJ) and Bill Weld (MA) are probably on the short-list for VP.
If Gingrich runs and loses, it might butterfly away the Republican investigations during Clinton's second term -- it's seen as obvious retribution by a losing candidate -- which would mean that Monica Lewinsky remains a rumor on the right-wing talk radio circuit and that there's no impeachment.
Without Dole as the obvious "establishment" candidate, the field would likely have resembled OTL's 2016 Republican primary (or 1988's Democratic primary) with lots of choices.
Newt Gingrich was named Time's "Man of The Year" in 1995 and was probably the most visible face of the Republican Party. At 53 with limitless ambition, he may or may not choose to challenge an incumbent president, but if he does, I think he could arise out of a multi-way field.
This is 1996, so the Republican Party is still going to be concerned about alienating its moderates with an arch-conservative bomb-thrower at the top of the ticket. Northeastern liberal governors Christie Todd Whitman (NJ) and Bill Weld (MA) are probably on the short-list for VP.
If Gingrich runs and loses, it might butterfly away the Republican investigations during Clinton's second term -- it's seen as obvious retribution by a losing candidate -- which would mean that Monica Lewinsky remains a rumor on the right-wing talk radio circuit and that there's no impeachment.
Hmmm it really does depend on (A) why Dole isn't running ITTL and (B) when he makes it known that he won't be a candidate. He was seen by most 'republican establishment' types as the obvious 'air-apparent', so the reasoning behind his non-candidacy is important.
If he makes his intentions clear relatively early on, I can see this potentially encouraging a lot of people who sat out the 96 primaries to enter the race. I think Cheney, in particular, entertained the idea of a run in 96, though he decided against it. I can see Jack Kemp ending up as the 96 nominee in this scenario though. If that's the case, he'd probably fair better than Dole did historically, though he'd still lose barring other PODs. My guess is that he'd probably do about as well as Romney did in 2012 against Obama, electorily speaking anyway.
If Dole's decision is more last-minute, I could still see Kemp possibly entering and winning, though if it's too late for that, someone like Alexander would probably end up winning the nomination and ultimately losing to Clinton in a similar fassion to Dole in OTL.
If he makes his intentions clear relatively early on, I can see this potentially encouraging a lot of people who sat out the 96 primaries to enter the race. I think Cheney, in particular, entertained the idea of a run in 96, though he decided against it. I can see Jack Kemp ending up as the 96 nominee in this scenario though. If that's the case, he'd probably fair better than Dole did historically, though he'd still lose barring other PODs. My guess is that he'd probably do about as well as Romney did in 2012 against Obama, electorily speaking anyway.
If Dole's decision is more last-minute, I could still see Kemp possibly entering and winning, though if it's too late for that, someone like Alexander would probably end up winning the nomination and ultimately losing to Clinton in a similar fassion to Dole in OTL.
Carroll Campbell and Thomas Kean would be favored to run. Phil Gramm would have a stronger campaign.
I could see Tommy Thompson throwing his hat into ring in '96 if Dole doesn't run. Don't know if he'd beat Clinton, but I think he would've been one of the stronger candidates in the Republican field. He was a popular Republican governor in a nationally light blue state, he was a past Chairman of the National Governor's Association as well as Chairman of the Republican Governor's Association. He was the first Governor to champion Welfare Reform through many different programs like Learn Fare, Work First, Work Not Welfare and others. He led the fight for the SCHIP program and created the first successful state insurance program for poor children and parents (Badger Care). He was the first Governor to champion 'School Choice', which became a Republican and Conservative mainstay. He balanced several budgets and also took a hard line on crime by implementing a "Mandatory Three Strikes" program.
He would've been a solid choice in '96 had he chosen to run. He wasn't the "out of touch, gaffing old man" that he was in the 2008 race. In '96 he was a three term sitting Governor and Reformer who was fairly nationally known.
He would've been a solid choice in '96 had he chosen to run. He wasn't the "out of touch, gaffing old man" that he was in the 2008 race. In '96 he was a three term sitting Governor and Reformer who was fairly nationally known.
I could see it, and I agree that he'd be stronger than Dole, but not strong enough to beat Clinton.
I don't see him winning either, but I think it'd be a lot closer than what it was in OTL. One interesting aspect is seeing how the Midwest plays out. Tommy was very well respected in the Midwest so I can see him taking some states from Clinton. Mainly Wisconsin, but there would be a chance of Illinois and Iowa too.
I think Tommy's only shot would be to run on his record. If he hammers the point that most of Clinton's Domestic Policy was first championed in Wisconsin under his guidance, I think he could win. In other words, sell himself as the "Republican Clinton."
I think Tommy's only shot would be to run on his record. If he hammers the point that most of Clinton's Domestic Policy was first championed in Wisconsin under his guidance, I think he could win. In other words, sell himself as the "Republican Clinton."