Who would colonise a no-meji Japan?

[Maburo]

Ive seen plenty of threads asking what other asian or african countries could have imitated a meji restoration modernisation and have become imperialist powers in their own right.
I here ask the opposite. If Japan had remained a feudal power, would Europeans have ended up succesfully colonising it? If so, who? Back in the 16th century the Portuguese were the biggest presence in Japan, later to be replaced by the Dutch. By the early 19th century I suspect the biggest contenders are the UK and France, though, if the island isn't colonised by the time of German unification, Germany may seize the opportunity to build an empire in one of the few as of yet unclaimed areas. Could Russia also be a factor to consider?

 

[pompejus]

In reality, I think noone would colonise Japan. A no-Meji Japan would still be too strong to simply walk into and colonise. Also it has nothing the European would want. Simply put it would be too much effort and too little to gain. I think the best the Europeans would get would be able to get is to turn Japan into a protectorate.

 

[Evil Crusader]

OTL, Britain came fairly close and did a fair chunk of the usual unequal treaties escalation before being forced to slowly reverse course and renounce privileges in 1894. So unless the USA gets to it faster, they're the most likely candidate.

 

[Lalli]

Russia might take Hokkaido and Brits would take rest of Japan altough probably as protectorate. For Japan them had not much of use anyway and it is not easy to take as colony.

 

[holycookie]

Shogunate japan was pro france i think, so an informal partition between 3 or 4 power is possible.

 

[Nivek]

Ive seen plenty of threads asking what other asian or african countries could have imitated a meji restoration modernisation and have become imperialist powers in their own right.
I here ask the opposite. If Japan had remained a feudal power, would Europeans have ended up succesfully colonising it? If so, who? Back in the 16th century the Portuguese were the biggest presence in Japan, later to be replaced by the Dutch. By the early 19th century I suspect the biggest contenders are the UK and France, though, if the island isn't colonised by the time of German unification, Germany may seize the opportunity to build an empire in one of the few as of yet unclaimed areas. Could Russia also be a factor to consider?

I think no one would care, too populated and no cash crop or commodities , just port cities for the whalers/traders

 

[Remitonov]

To put it simply, the colonial powers most capable of colonizing Japan, namely Britain, France, Russia and the US, would have the least incentive to do so, since there were far more valuable places for them to take than Japan, and far too costly to try. On the flip side, the colonial powers that did have more incentive, such as the Netherlands, Belgium and the like, were too weak to try, not just with colonizing Japan proper, but getting the approval of the stronger empires to do so.

 

[Beatriz]

Japan-as-Siam with the loss of peripheral territory like Hokkaido or Ryukyus isn’t something i see too often, especially given the location of its center of population (the Kanto Plain) mirroring the Chao Phraya in being difficult to conquer unless in one fell swoop, and with various hans portrayed in Look to the West as the precursors of colonial *princely states absorbed into a centralized provincial system under the Shogun

 

[Hayatgheibi]

The PoD would be either Japan isn’t reunified or the Tokugawa regime falls apart. The Dutch have a good chance if the former occurs, Portugal and Spain also had a presence in Asia. Britain didn’t have a presence in East Asia until later on, and while Russia conquering Japan would be difficult they could snatch Hokkaido.

 

[raharris1973]

I would not be as dismissive of the chances of a 19th century colonization of Japan, as at least three of the responders to the OP were.

The island of Honshu and its Kanto Plain and Edo/Tokyo is likely beyond colonization or becoming a protectorate of a single nation. But if a Japanese regime is really fumbling in the 19th century and doing badly in its interaction with the maritime powers, or is just getting one’s focused gaze, interest and hostility too long, any of Hokkaido, Shikoku, Kyushu or certainly Okinawa/the Ryukyus could be made a colony of Russia or a western nation.

I would say that only Russia, Britain, France, or Germany are powers in the 19th century that would have what it takes to do this. It might seem strange to rule out Commodore Perry’s own USA (except possibly for a grab of tiny Okinawa). But I think I can, because of America’s sectional tensions and limited government, low tax, small army system.

As for resources- sure, not much exotic tropical produce, but Japan had fine ports, had coal and places to store it, exported copper in the Meji era, possibly still exported silver (it certainly did earlier), exported silk and bamboo, and coolie labor, dried fish, and had brothels, so- not worthless Fromm a maritime imperialist point of view if it can be acquired at a manageable cost.

 

[Maponus]

The Chōshū Domain started a private war with the Western powers in 1863-1874, taking the "Expel the Barbarians" slogan of the what would later be known as the Meiji Restoration a little more literally than would later be the case, ending up in a naval conflict with the UK, France, Netherlands and the US. Luckily for Japan, the Chōshū were also rebels against their own government and the US was preoccupied with the Civil War, which allowed the situation to deescalate. However, it wouldn't take many changes to have the "Meiji Restoration" take the course of the Boxer Rebellion, and end up provoking a full Imperialist response. With the benefit of hindsight we can often see the Meiji Restoration as a simple clash of Imperial Westernisers against Shogunate Traditionalists, but in truth it was also driven by xenophobia towards foreigners on the part of the rebels. An assassination here, a diplomatic incident there, and those who would later be known as "Westernisers" would have gone down in history as fanatic barbarians who dared challenge "progress".

Remember, Egypt was nearly as modernised as it was possible for a Middle Eastern country to be, with a modernised army inspired by nationalistic revolutionary ideology poised to establish a European style nation state, when the British took advantage of the chaos to regress the country into a colonial protectorate. Japan could end up the same.