Whites win.
- Thread starter rick007
- Start date
Alan Clark
Banned
Presuming they saved him it would be Nicholas II restored.
If not probably Grand Duke Dmitri.
If not probably Grand Duke Dmitri.
Depends on who amongst the Whites comes out on top or if there's some sort or coalition of leaders as they weren't exactly one united monolithic block. For all that the murder of the Tsar and his family was good propaganda it's interesting that none of them really went out of their way to talk about reinstating the Tsar, it was much more about combating the communists. Personally I think that Nicholas was too viewed as damaged goods by the time of his abdication, if you see a new Tsar then I would expect that people would just decide his and Alexei's abdications had been legitimate and that Michael was the new ruler. Either in a return to the old system or much more likely as some kind of constitutional monarch/figurehead Michael just seems a better choice than his brother.
yourworstnightmare
Banned
Depend on which general install the new government. They weren't all Czarist. And they were very disunited (one reason they lost). We also have a provisional government in exile in Siberia that might have a say, not that the generals really gave a fuck about the provisional government.
I think Czarism most probably won't come back. A Junta that devolves into Warlordism with the generals carving out their own sub countries under the umbrella of a weak government in Petrograd is a very scary but plausible possibility.
I think Czarism most probably won't come back. A Junta that devolves into Warlordism with the generals carving out their own sub countries under the umbrella of a weak government in Petrograd is a very scary but plausible possibility.
I don't think the Whites will install a Czar at all. The monarchy had lost all of its credibility. I don't think the Whites ever publically said their intention was to restore the Czar; I believe they always said they were restoring the provisional government with the intention that a new constitution would be written and approved by the people. If the Whites had won, their power would still be shaky - even those who would prefer a restoration of the monarchy won't risk provoking another possible rebellion.
Of course, many people suspected the Whites WOULD restore the Romanovs which is one reason (but not the only reason) they lacked popular support.
The most likely result is a reconvocation of the provisional government that invites all parties except for the Bolsheviks (who are made illegal) and the Left SRs. Having won the military victory, the Whites will likely hold most power over drafting the constitution, and it won't be as liberal as it could have been (especially with land reform, probably the most important issue in Russia at the time).
Chances for an eventual out-and-out military dictatorship is high, but that probably won't happen until several years of instability in the new government. It is possible that one or two decades in, that a particularly charismatic individual might reconstitute the monarchy - but that would depend on lots of individual decisions and events in the interim. It is not inevitable, and probably unlikely.
I think that distinction won't matter. The peasants won't want any association with the Romanovs, and won't understand the distinction between a ceremonial monarch and an autocrat, while the leftwing intellectuals won't accept even that.
By 1919, there is essentially no "Tsarist faction". There are "conservatives" and "constitutional liberals" who are committed anti-Bolsheviks, but the Whites were not fighting to restore the monarchy, but to retain the basic social structure. If there was a "Tsarist faction", it would have acted decisively in 1917 to retain the monarchy even in a ceremonial capacity. It didn't because no one wanted to be associated with the Romanovs. It's too much of a millstone.
There are of course monarchists still in Russia, but they are not politically organized and pretty much accepted the provisional government and to defend it. After the Whites win, they'll still be divided and unorganized. It'll be a long time before they can come together and become prominent enough to be appeased.
If a monarchy returns to Russia, in my opinion it won't be until a new generation comes of age that has no memory of the Czars, but lived in ongoing political instability. If so, someone might be able to restore the monarchy (whether through a Romanov pretender or a new dynasty) to associate a new regime with the nostalgic view of order and stability that existed before the Great War.
Well, either way Russia is going to be in a very poor shape if the Whites win all the same. Especially considering how antiseemitic they were and the mass killings they supported to root out the Reds. Not to mention they had a much more overt nationalist agenda focused on re-absorbing the nations that had separated from Mother Russia.
If the Whites win in Russia in the early 1920's, have they still won by this vantage point in 2013? I'm thinking something like the Republic of China, where the equivalent "Whites" (everything from the conservatives to the Quomindong to the liberals) do win, only to slowly fall apart over several decades before the Reds finally win in 1949.
A White victory over the bolsheviks in 1923 say, followed by factional infighting, civil war, warlords, with the Communists keeping their strength best and eventually winning through. You end up say with a Russian Federations lasting until the Depression, and then maybe the Communists coming to the fore then.
The butterflies from that, from Versailles on forward, would be spectacular.
A White victory over the bolsheviks in 1923 say, followed by factional infighting, civil war, warlords, with the Communists keeping their strength best and eventually winning through. You end up say with a Russian Federations lasting until the Depression, and then maybe the Communists coming to the fore then.
The butterflies from that, from Versailles on forward, would be spectacular.
Is Russia really large enough to support a small Soviet area if the Whites dominate the European parts? I can't really see either side stopping with their opponent still owning some territory, with the European areas containing all of the industrial capacity whoever is forced to the periphery is screwed, and the Soviets won't be receiving any outside support. It might be a something of a long fight but I can't see either side backing down, it's very much an all or nothing fight.
One of my favorite WI. Where it gets interesting for me is post 1933 & the nazi rise to power. Assuming that does occur, then a non Communist Russia would be a lot more attractive partner to France & its efforts to form a new Entente. It is a lot more likely nazi Germany would be politically surrounded. Neither the Poles of Cezchs would be thrilled with Russians of any sort carrying arms into their territory, but non Communists would be a little more platable than the other sort. Certainly the British would have fewer objections to a mutual support treaty absent the Bolshiviiks.
A few other variables...
Will the Poles get into a border squabble with this Russian government? ...and will they attempt to recover breakaway states like Finland, Armenia, ect...
Will the European economy be sounder in the 1920s absent the gaping finacial hole created by the Communists and their attempt to create a autarky in the 1920s?
Will the 'Whites' create some sort of fascist 'Slavic Guard' to kept disgruntled peasants and urban laborers in line?
Will Russian industrial development in the next two decades be worse or better than under the communists?
How will this effect Chinas politics? Instead of pathetic White Russian exiles hanging around Shanghai there will be former Bolshiviks dodging the police in their anti communists roundups. Will the Chinese communists attempt a revolt in the 1920s absent Russian Soviet encouragement, and without that fiasco does Mao gain any traction?
Will the founder of Koch Oil make the same fortune developing refineries for a White Russian government as he did with the Soviet government, and without that experience does he raise his sons as ultra conservatives?
This PoD just walks off in every direction.
A few other variables...
Will the Poles get into a border squabble with this Russian government? ...and will they attempt to recover breakaway states like Finland, Armenia, ect...
Will the European economy be sounder in the 1920s absent the gaping finacial hole created by the Communists and their attempt to create a autarky in the 1920s?
Will the 'Whites' create some sort of fascist 'Slavic Guard' to kept disgruntled peasants and urban laborers in line?
Will Russian industrial development in the next two decades be worse or better than under the communists?
How will this effect Chinas politics? Instead of pathetic White Russian exiles hanging around Shanghai there will be former Bolshiviks dodging the police in their anti communists roundups. Will the Chinese communists attempt a revolt in the 1920s absent Russian Soviet encouragement, and without that fiasco does Mao gain any traction?
Will the founder of Koch Oil make the same fortune developing refineries for a White Russian government as he did with the Soviet government, and without that experience does he raise his sons as ultra conservatives?
This PoD just walks off in every direction.
yourworstnightmare
Banned
Actually the red scare in Europe would be severely diminished without the USSR, which will create butterflies. One of them might be no Nazi victory in Germany.
Well, I doubt OTLs Nazis would come to power if Russia werent Red, but maybe the National Socialists really are socialist/communist, and Hitler leads a communist coup in Germany....