Which non-European nation had the potential to industrialize first?
- Thread starter Duke_of_Darkness
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That was also the Japanese view thanks to Buddhism, yet Japan was one of the most forward-looking countries of the 19th century.
That is true, yet how much of it was due to them realising that they were being left behind by the world? This don't happen in a vacuum. I mean look at China, they invented compass, paper, gunpowder and a lot of other advancement and did fuck all with it. There have been multiple occasions of the rulers deliberately keeping the country(pleasent, merchents, etc) poor. This has been noted frequently both in India and China.
Plus both of these societies are shame based societies, going against the grain is quite literally a crime.
Yeah, nothing happens in a vacuum. India and its kingdoms were always the destination for trade, not the departure point, just like China. But the circumstances shape the ideology, not the other way around.
Circumstances do shape ideology however it quickly becomes a vicious cycle, the same happened in India. With each and every invasion the caste system got stricter and stricter the same happened in the Northern parts but the south endured with some values like treatment of women much better than the north and other such Vedic values. But it is what it is ig.
While I am not sure any society would develop an 'industrial revolution' in the same manner as otl, the most likely would be an Indian polity in a different scenario. One thing that I would like to mention too is that industrialization could potentially occur but without the state adjusting to these changes or an economy can become extraordinarily high in their gdp but not adopt really anything that would be a hallmark of recent European statism. The advantage Europe had over the Great Qing had less to do with technology, even as late as 1865 and more to do, imo, with the governmental and military structure. European advantages began to provide dividends in that they had large populations in density with strong states and professionalized armies with more efficient tax collection methods that allowed a more dynamic martial structure compared to many of the traditional universal empires, both in Europe and Asia. The Ottoman empire meanwhile lagged behind in population, had very poor population density and their governmental structure for various reasons was prone to extreme decentralization and hence, the Ottoman empire declined and suffered despite otherwise appearing greater and more mighty than European states. Even at the height of the Ottoman Empire during the reign of Mehmed IV, the empire had less people than the Holy Roman Empire, despite the Ottoman empire vastly outsizing it in territorial extent and possessing a larger urban area in Constantinople.
I'll be a bit conceptual, but I believe you can see humanity as a sort of brain.
More humans being in close proximity to one another with good communication tools is like a neural network. It's the amount of connexions which drives intelligence. So if you have many connexions, ideas will bounce and evolve and be twisted and remade until they settle on their proper shape.
See how the internet is driving new heights of scientific and cultural discoveries.
Therefore, it's the vast connexions of Modern Europe, with its travelling knowledge class, somewhat unified by common languages (Latin, French...) that allowed those new ideas to blossom and evolve. Those ideas allowed population growth and new connexions (Columbine exchange, the printing press...) and things just accelerated from there.
Where did you get that idea? India became less urbanized, more divided, and it's economy was set up for the rule of a foreign power that did not care for the subcontinent.
Anyways, I think the most likely areas for the industrial barring Europe is somewhere in the India or the Middle East, with East Asia a close second. Some South Indian state (as the rise of Mysore might be butterflied) or maybe a Punjab. But anywhere East of the Indus is gonna have a hard time because either they are too populous or had a bad climate. So the Middle East might be the next best place.
Hanseatic in North America? Interesting....
How would they cross the vast oceans and only for timber when the forests of Russia and finland are so much near?
Something has to happen that cuts off them from Russia but that's impossible. Even if Golden horde absorbed Rus States in entirety the trade to West would be more extensive ( ah yes, black death)
I'll add to my own post to identify why it didn't take hold in China, or the Roman Empire.
Besides resources, if you have one center of coordination, one center which groups resources, you weaken interconnexions.
In a decentralised world, you maximise those interconnexions. That's why capitalism tends to generate economic growth and innovation (and why it needs some rails to avoid massive economic centralisation through capital accumulation).
So you need a lot of competing centers for interconnexion, but the coordination centers also need to have enough resources to solve the coordination problems linked to gathering resources for large projects (rail lines, canals...).
Example: Zheng He's expeditions was an incredible feat, which could have lead to great things. But since there was only ONE coordination center, once the next emperor got bored with it, it died and knowledge passed away.
In Europe, once Portugal stopped doing big explorations, the Dutch started doing it to stay in the game, leading the Brits to do it as well. That means it never stopped cause there was always someone with the means and the motivation to launch those expeditions, and the knowledge kept circulating and increasing.
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Ya,' you would be very well advised to NEVER bring up the elements you brought up in your first paragraph hereabouts in the future
I decided adressing your question here could potentially derail this thread and started a new one dedicated to the idea of Hanseatic America. Hope the OP adresses your concerns.
If I've understood correctly, Edo-period (and earlier) Japan wasn't quite as Buddhist one is lead to believe
at first look (when one sees the monks, the temples and people retiring to monasteries).
If memory serves there was a lot of "this prominent and high-ranking Buddhist priest is writing a lot of
Neo-Confucian talking points, views and morals and not very much actually Buddhist thought".
Alexandria had the potential with Heron in Egypt. I imagine with just a little more inventiveness, their could have been an air powered revolution, the wind wheel, and the aeolipile. Combined with Ctesebius, if he invented a way to compress air with a bellows, you could have the first mechanical energy storage. Imagine an ancient pneumatic revolution. Things like Archytas flying bird add to the potential of a different kind of revolution in manufacturing and engineering.
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What is the societal pressure for that though? Wasn't labour super cheap?
Considering we are talking about the BC era I think that metallurgy being two millennia behind OTL's industrial revolution is also a problem...
What about Persia/Iran? It seems reasonably geographically secure (excluding horse invaders from the North) but close enough to powers like the OE and Mughals to keep it getting complacent (I think). Given the topography I'd assume there's potential for water power, at least in the areas that aren't in a rain shadow, for kind of the first stage of proto industrialism. I'm uncertain about readily available coal though.
I'm super ignorant about the area, but it seems like a Japan analogue with old cities and a significant tradition of literacy. What kind of PoD would be needed to add the mercantile element that seems necessary to industrialization? Or did they already have that going on?
I'm super ignorant about the area, but it seems like a Japan analogue with old cities and a significant tradition of literacy. What kind of PoD would be needed to add the mercantile element that seems necessary to industrialization? Or did they already have that going on?
That's not what I've seen. Buddhism by the Edo period had deeply penetrated all walks of Japanese society. Just because Neo-Confucianism was a thing among Japanese monks doesn't mean they weren't deeply Buddhist: that's like arguing that Europe wasn't deeply Christian because of Enlightenment-era philosophy.
On a Industrial Egypt, I did make an atempt at creating one in my signature TL but the conditions I set up for it to work were highly specific to say the least
Still, I do think they had a lot of potential, its just that they had to overcome a lot of socioeconomic issues in order to fully tap into it
Still on the topic of this thread - I also had India and the arabs achieved it later on but the former did so by undergoing a hellenization process(parallel to OTL "westernization") while the later remained pagans following a mix between arab & ancient egyptian religion so, eh, it was a double-edged sword
Still, I do think they had a lot of potential, its just that they had to overcome a lot of socioeconomic issues in order to fully tap into it
Still on the topic of this thread - I also had India and the arabs achieved it later on but the former did so by undergoing a hellenization process(parallel to OTL "westernization") while the later remained pagans following a mix between arab & ancient egyptian religion so, eh, it was a double-edged sword
The societal pressure is partially military and knowledge based. Alexandria was focused heavily on acquiring new knowledge. They also did a lot of experiments. One of Ctesebius inventions was a pneumatic ballistae which failed. Also about this time, we have the experience of water wheels for grinding grain and similar things. There is a whole series of things which could develop once you have the water wheel and piston. A larger population needs more flour for bread. Also, they need more metal for forging things. The piston bellows could be improved with pneumatics. There could be an effect where a lot of the water wheel, bellows, and pneumatic technology advance more quickly. This is partially about more efficient food processing and better military technology. There also might be a greater desire to expand and get new knowledge. Maybe they might build a wheeled ship earlier.