The Ottoman Empire, the Russian Empire, and Qing Dynasty China. All were widely perceived as backward by contemporaries in the early 20th century, and all three collapsed within ten years of each other. With a POD of 1900, which one had the best odds of successfully dealing with its internal issues and external threats and surviving under the same regime until at least the mid-20th century?
Which empire had the best chance of surviving?
- Thread starter vuun
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BigDave1967
Banned
The Russian Empire was more open to reforms(IMO) than the Ottoman Empire or Qing China. But Turkey didn't do badly after the collapse with Kemal Ataturk commanding the ship. China fell into the forth level of hell with warlords running parts of China until the early 30s.
I'd honestly suspect it was Russia, but the Tsars would have to be willing to make serious reforms, and Nicholas II's disastrous reign might have to be butterflied altogether to be 100% sure of that, TBH. But if the alternate successor decides to open his ears to those who want positive change, then I think the Empire could manage to survive; and there might not be much of a chance of a major Marxist uprising like the one in 1917 IOTL.
So at least Russia had a real chance to turn things around; but as for the other two.....the Qings were well on their way out before the dawn of the century and the Ottomans were themselves the "Sick Man of Europe", as it were.
So at least Russia had a real chance to turn things around; but as for the other two.....the Qings were well on their way out before the dawn of the century and the Ottomans were themselves the "Sick Man of Europe", as it were.
Anaxagoras
Banned
The Russian Empire gets my vote. There are many possible scenarios in which it could have evolved into a constitutional monarchy, had not the Bolsheviks gotten in the way of things.
I know nothing about the Qing but I voted for it only because it is a mono-ethnic empire. The 20th century was not kind to multi-ethnic countries/empires etc.
True. Arabs saw themselves just as multiple different tribes whose has same language and faith. Many tribes rebelled against Ottomans but so long when they don't unite their powers them haven't changes against Ottomans.
Russia wasn't that multi-ethnic in nature. The Slavic Russians continue to be the overwhelming majority and the dominant ethnic group in almost every part of the modern Russian Federation, and they're still a large and significant minority in most of the former Soviet Union states. Qing China, similarly, was not that mono-ethnic, especially in the outlying regions of Xinjiang, Tibet, Yunnan, and (now independent) Outer Mongolia.
With a point of divergence after 1900 I think China was simply too far gone, so that leaves Russia and the Ottoman Empire. Both had a chance but I think Russia just edges them out.
The Borki train disaster is an interesting incident with some potential but unfortunately is twelve years too early. Easiest solution is for Nicholas II to come down with something lethal or have an accident some time before 1904 when Alexei was born so that Grand Duke Michael comes to the throne. Now we don't know for certain what kind of Tsar he might have been but he seems like a fairly decent chap and he couldn't have been any worse than his brother.
The Qing where in basically no meaningful ways a mono-ethnic empire. Even if you treat all han chineese as the same you've still got some massive minority groups in there.
Being too lazy to find a primary source, according to Wikipedia as of 1897 out of 125 million people in the Russian Empire, the primary language spoken was
Russian 55 million (less than 50% of the population)
Ukranian 22 million
Turkic-Tatar 13 million
Polish 7.9 million
Belarussian 5.8m
Yiddish 5 million
Finnik 3.5 million
Modern countries that were in the empire include Finland and Poland, in addition to the now ex Soviet Republics.
Only 70% was Eastern Orthodox, among Roman Catholics, Muslims, Jews, and several other groups.
Russian Empire was about as diverse as it gets. Even if it can make the appropriate political reforms so that the Czar remains in power, I find it unlikely the empire lasts as eventually those ethnic groups will want to be on their own. I guess at that point it is semantics then as to what constitutes an empire.
I cant speak to the Qing politically but the fact that China retains fairly similar borders despite the chaos of the 20th century says something about the cultural dynamics even if I overstated its homogeneity in my first post. If the ethnic diversity were truly that distinct, the probability of it splitting up between 1912 and 1950 would have been pretty high.
CthulhuFhtagn
Banned
Qing China was one tiny minority (the Manchu) oppressing the vast majority (the Han). There was no way that could last, not with the Manchu intentionally segregating themselves from the Han.
As for which empire had the best shot, my money's on Russia. Russia definitely could have survived WWI, even if it had lost. And a powerful Russia will destroy the Ottoman Empire sooner or later.
No, combine the Mongols, the Uyghurs and the Tibetans and that's just slightly more than the population of Taiwan.
But since the ruling class is also a minority that wasn't particularly keen on adapting to Chinese culture…
russia and the ottoman empire fell because they lost the bloodiest war until then. the qing dynasty fell because it lost any legitimacy it had due to foreign pressure and encroachment on the chinese state and society.
the russians lost eastern europe because the germans said so, that gave eastern europe enough time to rearm a bit but the russians did reconquer the ukraine and nearly poland too in 1920.
the ottomans... the arab uprising was a joke completely dependant on foreign support from day 1, once that support turned against them it went away pretty fast. i dont see how they could lose their arab holdings if there's no war or if they win. and once the oil flows...
qing china looks pretty much like modern china does, save taiwan sort of, mongolia and the russian bits which were lost long before the qing fell.
in the end without foreign intervention all three can go on the same way all other low stability semi stagnant countries went on.
the russians lost eastern europe because the germans said so, that gave eastern europe enough time to rearm a bit but the russians did reconquer the ukraine and nearly poland too in 1920.
the ottomans... the arab uprising was a joke completely dependant on foreign support from day 1, once that support turned against them it went away pretty fast. i dont see how they could lose their arab holdings if there's no war or if they win. and once the oil flows...
qing china looks pretty much like modern china does, save taiwan sort of, mongolia and the russian bits which were lost long before the qing fell.
in the end without foreign intervention all three can go on the same way all other low stability semi stagnant countries went on.
Why is Austria-Hungary not included in the poll? When the day came it went out with a whimper, not a bang.
CthulhuFhtagn
Banned
Relative to the other three, Austria-Hungary was tiny, at least in terms of potential population and wealth. Going by OTL populations, the Tsars, the Qing, and the Ottomans would all rule over empires with more than 400 million people. Compare that to Austria-Hungary's potential 100 million.