What's the maximum population the Romania could support?

30 million as a very conservative approximate , it could support more ( UK has at the roughly same surface , thrice as much population as romania )
 
Probably about 60 million. What is now Romania was frequently under nomad control until 1300s. Then it came under Ottoman rule and Ottoman Europe in general saw very little population growth, including their Romanian territories. Wallachia and Moldavia (including Moldova) probably had a combined population of about a million in late 1400s, which barely increased in the next 300 years. Wallachia and Moldavia saw a lot of unrest, not to mention Russian invasions later on. The result was in 1800, Wallachia and Moldavia are estimated to have had a combined population of about 1.4 million roughly equal to Transylvania.

Best strategy is to have the area settled much earlier. Maybe the Bulgarian empire secures its grip on the area and settles a lot of Slavs and Vlaches. Then by the time the Mongols come it is too densely populated to revert to pastoralism to the same degree. Much higher population by 1400s. Then have it stay separate from the Ottoman empire later. Transylvania would see less change but Ottomans weren't great for it either. Then by 1700 have a population of 3 million in the 3 regions combined instead of about 1.8 million. Have rapid population growth start earlier than it did OTL in the early 1800s for Wallachia and Moldavia. Perhaps 6 million in modern Romania by 1800, double OTL. Then OTL rate in 1800s. In 1890, Romania had a population of 10 million in modern borders increasing to only 20 million by 2020. ATL it is 20 million in 1890 and triples in the next 130 years. Have slightly slower fertility decline, skip WWII and the disappearance of German and Jewish populations during and after the War, and avoid the demographic disaster of post-Communist Romania.
 
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Romania has arable land, so perhaps Romania never gets absorbed by the Turks and a Poland screw, and they can be independent and have a more vibrant economy leading to earlier industrialization (but not too much, as post industrial economies experience decreasing population.)
 
Well, Wallachia and Moldova were colonized with Romanians from Transylvania who brought a even larger Romanian population in those lands.
Maybe the anti-Romanian and anti-Orthodox laws are becoming more aggressive, and a larger number of Romanians are emigrating to Wallachia and Moldova after the Mongol invasion.
But the most practical is if Michael the Brave manages to unite the three states permanently, and his successors manage to create a powerful and stable Romania, thus helping a lot to increase the Romanian population, and in TTL Romania reaches a population of 60 million or so like OTL United Kingdom.

Is not necessary this scenario, but the important thing is that Romania to not become a vassal state of the Ottoman Empire, and then under Russian occupation plus the destruction of WW1.
If Romania mananged to became early independent ( the revolution of Tudor Vladimirescu from 1821, for example) and managed to industrialize quickly in the 19th century with a strong leadership plus to avoid the destruction of WW1 on the Romanian soil, the things will go well for the population and for Romania in general.
 
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The biggest things holding the Romanian population down where: Ottoman monopoly on trade, preventing the development of an expanding middle class due to peasants being forced to sell their products to the Ottomans at fixed prices, the 150 years of serfdom(1590-1740), keeping the rural population in poverty and not creating any incentive for reproduction, and finally the Crisis of the 18th Century(like the 17th Century Crisis in the rest of Europe), which saw constant warfare in the region between the Ottomans, Russians and Austrians, as well as frequent cholera and plague outbreaks, further keeping the population down.

Remove this 3 big causes and Romania would reach 60 million people by 2020(regardless of other factors, like the world wars).
 
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